History Lessons: The not-so great outdoors

He may not be Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, but there are two sides to Drew Brees. When he plays his games in the cozy confines of a domed stadium, his numbers tend to be big. Subsequently, when he plays outdoors, his touchdown production declines and his yardage sometimes follows. We highlight this because Brees and the Saints play at the Buccaneers in Week 13, their sixth such outdoor game of the year.

Of Brees' 22 touchdowns this season, six have come in outdoor venues. Of Brees' eight 300-plus-yard games, two have come outside. And in all of those games, Brees has connected with a receiver for at least 100 yards once.

On the right, you'll find a breakdown of Brees' efforts outdoors this season. A simple glance will tell you that Brees' best games came against really bad pass defenses in the Broncos and Chargers. In fact, the Chargers game was the one played abroad in London at Wembley Stadium, which sports a roof much like Texas Stadium near Dallas that covers the stands but not the field, so the immediate environment impacting the players had a dome-like effect.

But there's more than meets the eye with these specific contests: Not only are these games outside, but they're being played on grass. Typically, players are faster on synthetic surfaces like FieldTurf or Momentum Turf, which is the brand of field surface inside the Louisiana Superdome. Players used to fast surfaces aren't as speedy on the natural stuff.

Now you might think to yourself, "How does that affect Brees? He's not a running quarterback." That's true, he doesn't run much -- but his receivers run quite a bit. Take a look at the stats impacting Brees' five best receiving options on artificial surfaces and on natural surfaces this season.

There's no doubt that they are affected by the conditions, especially since they've gone up against some bad teams outdoors and didn't routinely crush them like they do to opponents at home. And even though Brees is an efficient, quality quarterback getting the ball in their hands, they're not speeding away from the competition, limiting Brees' numbers.

Now the really strange thing is that this statistical challenge is new for the Saints. Last year, New Orleans hit the road for the great outdoors five times, and in four of the five games, Brees was a machine. He threw at least three touchdowns in three of the five games and topped 250 yards in four of them. His only bad outing was a 260-yard, one touchdown, one interception performance -- at Tampa Bay.

Brees lit up the Bucs in Week 1 with a 343-yard, three-score game at the Superdome. Since then, the Bucs haven't allowed a single 300-yard passer and haven't given up 300 yards passing at home since Jason Campbell had 301 yards in Week 12 last year. And before Campbell, you'd have to go back to Week 9 of the 2006 season to find the last quarterback to hang over 300 yards on the Bucs.

That, of course, would be Brees.

If you've got Brees starting for your Fantasy team this week, don't worry about him being a total bust. True, he's got a tough matchup (Tampa Bay ranks second vs. the pass) on a surface that hurts the upside of his receivers, but he's proven to be capable of big games in any given week, and his familiarity with the Buccaneers defense won't hurt him either. He'll be a decent option, though his receivers might struggle to produce huge numbers like they did last week against the Packers.

Colts are also on grass

Indianapolis heads to Cleveland for Week 14 where they, too, will be outdoors on grass. However, they'll also be facing one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Benching any Colts players seems ridiculous, but let's just see how they fare outside of domes.

The interesting points here include Dallas Clark's incredibly backwards production on grass vs. on turf (he had eight TDs on turf last year vs. three on grass) and Marvin Harrison practically falling off the map when he's not at home. Also, Peyton Manning's yards per attempt average is 1.36 yards higher on turf, another stat that can be contributed to his receivers gaining more yards on the fake stuff than the real stuff.

Like the Saints, the Colts' offense is better suited for fast surfaces. But also like the Saints, when the Colts get a favorable matchup on the road, they usually deliver.

Belichick digs the Steelers

Between the regular season and postseason, the Patriots and Steelers have met six times since Bill Belichick took over coaching the Patriots in 2000, with all of the games coming since Tom Brady became the club's starting quarterback. In those six games, the Patriots are 5-1 and average just under 29 points in each contest against the 'Burgh. These teams meet again in New England in Week 13.

What's Belichick's secret? Only once in those six meetings did the Patriots not attempt at least 39 passes, and on four occasions the Patriots ordered their running backs to run less than 20 times. What's more, the Patriots have scored 12 touchdowns in the six-game span through the air versus four on the ground.

Chef Belichick's receipe for beating the Steel Curtain is to throw on them, and that will likely be what the Patriots do in their game with Matt Cassel under center, though he has given them plenty to be confident about in his last two games.

The difference this season, however, has been the stingy pass defense of the Steelers. Normally, you'll find their run defense ranked high, and that's the case entering Week 13, as they were No. 1 vs. the run with 66.5 rush yards allowed per game. But the Steelers are just as vicious against the pass, also top-ranked and giving up 168.8 pass yards per game. The Steelers have slammed every quarterback they've faced, save for Peyton Manning's three-touchdown effort in Week 10, so Belichick will have his work cut out for him on Sunday.

But if his track record is any indication, you can expect Cassel to be throwing quite a bit.

Food for thought

Because historical data is just part of the equation in determining whether or not a Fantasy option is good or bad, the following notes are more for your information than actual suggestions on starts and sits for the week. If anything, it might help you make a lineup decision.

History suggests ...