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Dave Richard

Four Downs: Colts costly in Week 13

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


What is it about the Mannings this season when they play in Cleveland?

In Week 6 at the Browns, Eli Manning threw three interceptions on a 196-yard, one-touchdown night in the Giants' lone loss of the season. Surely big brother could do better against the Browns, right?

Wrong. Peyton Manning did worse, at least in the eyes of Fantasy owners. The older Manning threw for just 125 yards with two interceptions and no scores in Week 13 as the Browns stifled him and his receivers. According to The Associated Press, this was only the 10th time in Manning's career that he failed to produce at least 150 passing yards.

This rotten egg was laid just in time for owners clamoring for spots into the Fantasy postseason.

Manning threw his second zero-touchdown, two-interception game this season, both coming on the road (the other was at Green Bay in Week 7). You would have to go back to 2005 to find a year where Manning endured two zero-score complete games (excluding late-season contests where the Colts already clinched a postseason berth).

What's worse, the Colts offense totaled three points against the Browns, which means that any Fantasy owner hoping for Indy's bright stars to help them get to the next level in their league was let down. Joseph Addai had 57 rush yards and a fumble. Reggie Wayne had four catches for 46 yards, good enough to lead all Indianapolis receivers. By comparison, Baltimore's Mark Clayton had 30 fewer total yards than the Colts. All of them.

You might note that the Colts looked like the Indy offense from the first three weeks of the season. That's because they were missing the leader of their offensive line, center Jeff Saturday. Now you might think it's not a big deal to miss one of five offensive linemen up front, but against one of the best nose tackles in the league, Cleveland's Shaun Rogers, it was noticeable. Manning saw his line collapse at times and Addai couldn't break long runs. The rain also didn't help much.

With any luck, your Fantasy team survived this week in spite of the Colts' poor performance. And if not, you learned a hard lesson about matchups along the line of scrimmage and how they could impact your Fantasy stars.

Finally, if anyone finds Reggie Wayne -- and I'm not talking about the imposter currently wearing No. 87 for the Colts who has totaled 402 yards and one touchdown in his last seven games -- let him know because we miss him.

First down

Before Sunday, there was Thursday. And on Thursday, we saw a couple of four-star four-touchdown performances. Both came from players on the same team in a desperate situation against a tired defense.

The one that surprised us was Brian Westbrook, who seemingly snapped out of his funk with a 130-total-yard performance (5.0 yards per carry, 6.67 yards per catch) and two rushing scores and two receiving scores. Many Fantasy owners were wary of Westbrook not only because of his matchup against the Cardinals, who had previously done well against the run, but because his play resembled Shaun Alexander's (the 2006-08 Alexander, not the 2005 Alexander) over his previous three games. I broke down his night following the game.

But the performance that exceeded our expectations, and they were pretty high to begin with, was Donovan McNabb's. The Eagles quarterback, coming off a negative Fantasy performance that saw him get benched the week before, was under the microscope on Thanksgiving night, but against a pass defense that entered the game allowing 22 touchdowns through the air. With Westbrook expected to struggle (oops), McNabb was expected to throw a bunch and be successful.

Even with Westbrook churning, McNabb did great, throwing for 260 yards and four touchdowns with another 24 yards rushing. It proved to be the best Fantasy performances by a quarterback in Week 13.

Does this make McNabb a safe Fantasy option for the rest of the year? Be careful -- the Eagles play at the Giants in Week 14, vs. the Browns in Week 15, at the Redskins in Week 16 and vs. the Cowboys in Week 17. With the exception of the home game against Cleveland, there's no lock that he'll do even half as well against his divisional foes as he did against a Cardinals defense that was playing on three days rest on the other side of the country.

And if McNabb's forecast isn't so rosy, then what about Westbrook's?

Second down

DeAngelo Williams racked up four TDs in a Week 13 win in Green Bay. (US Presswire)  
DeAngelo Williams racked up four TDs in a Week 13 win in Green Bay. (US Presswire)  
Speaking of four-touchdown games, DeAngelo Williams is in the club.

Williams didn't notch 100 rush yards -- the first time in five games -- but, oh boy, did he ever continue his touchdown roll. He not only extended his consecutive games with a score streak to five, but he nearly matched it in the game.

On five occasions, the Panthers had a goal-to-go situation from the Packers 1. With a bruising rookie running back in Jonathan Stewart on the team, along with a pair of big-bodied fullback types, the club put the ball in the hands of Williams four times. And all four times, Williams came through for touchdowns (a fifth score was on a bootleg by Jake Delhomme). A big reason for his effort: Stewart had cramping after a long run and the team wanted him to see as little action as possible. In a pinch, Williams crushed the Packers' playoff hopes.

Williams is 45 yards shy of 1,000 on the ground (he's already over 1,000 total yards). He has 11 rushing touchdowns. We knew at the beginning of the season that he'd have a prominent role in the Panthers offense, but he is flat out winning Fantasy leagues for owners this season.

That might get a little tougher in the coming weeks, though. Carolina hosts the run-tough Buccaneers next week and play at the Giants in a significant Week 16 game. Those contests could provide problems for Williams. But he'll more than make up for it in Week 15 (vs. Denver) and Week 17 (at New Orleans -- assuming the game means something). Still, what choice do Fantasy owners have but to ride him out the rest of the way?

That's what the Panthers will do.

Third down

You win, Jamey Eisenberg.

It's rare when Jamey, my CBSSports.com Fantasy Football colleague, and I disagree on a player's prognosis for a given week, but we went toe-to-toe on Matt Cassel this week. I felt that Cassel would attempt a ton of passes and have no choice but to accumulate stats because of it. Jamey felt that Cassel would suffer the same fate as nearly every other quarterback that faced the Steelers.

Not only did Cassel struggle against the Steelers, but he also might have given the Patriots' playoff chances away. In the rain at Foxboro, Cassel went from back-to-back 400-yard passer to four-turnover goat.

Cassel had no turnovers in the first half as the Pats and Steelers were tied at 10. But after a pair of Pittsburgh touchdowns early in the third quarter -- neither of which helped along by Cassel's mistakes -- the Patriots found themselves down and forced to throw. Cassel fumbled on a pair of sacks on New England's next two possessions, leading the Steelers to two field goal attempts (one made, one missed), and more importantly, a ton of time off the clock. That forced Cassel to throw even more, resulting in two more interceptions.

So Cassel suffers the same fate as nearly every other back-to-back 400-yard passer. They lay a dud the following week. He'll have the chance to rebound at Seattle next week, followed by another West Coast road game at Oakland in Week 15 and Arizona at home in Week 16. It's not that bad, and if Cassel can learn from the mistakes he made in this game when he was forced to throw the ball and really shoulder the offensive load, he'll help Fantasy owners out.

But what do owners do if they own Tony Romo, who plays at Pittsburgh next week? Romo is coming off of a couple of monster efforts and his right pinkie finger should be fine, but the Steelers' mega-defense isn't slowing down by any means. Does this mean the Cowboys are sits for Week 14?

It's something worth talking about in the office, that's for sure. Let us know what you're going to do with Romo, Marion Barber, Terrell Owens and Jason Witten in Week 14 by dropping us an e-mail at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com.

Fourth down

The Chargers offense is a mess. The primary reason for it? The running game has been stuck in quicksand for much of the year. And you know who is the main runner in the Chargers offense.

Fantasy owners were fortunate to have LaDainian Tomlinson score vs. the Falcons in Week 13, because if he hadn't, it would have meant another week where owners start to question Tomlinson's role in Fantasy.

The truth is, owners should start to question Tomlinson's role in Fantasy even with the touchdown.

Blame it on his offensive line, offensive penalties, the lack of a polished fullback, his sore toe or his advanced age, but plain and simple, Tomlinson isn't producing at the level of what we're used to seeing. His 24 rush yards Sunday were outproduced by 46 other players, including six quarterbacks, eight rookies and even his own fullback (Jacob Hester had one rush for 28 yards). And we can easily look around the NFL and find 12 running backs we'd rather have that Tomlinson, even with his easy late-season schedule.

The ultimate test for Tomlinson's Fantasy owners comes early when the Chargers and their skittish offense plays vs. the Raiders on Thursday night. It's a short week for San Diego to regroup and rebound, but Tomlinson will have the national stage likely for the last time this season.

If he can muster up a stellar effort against a team he's always dominated, then Fantasy owners will be able to say that he isn't ready for the trash heap. But if he struggles like he has for much of the season, then Fantasy owners won't only be uncomfortable trusting L.T. again, but they'll likely be out of their Fantasy postseason.

It's going to be an interesting couple of days.

What are your thoughts from this week? See anything that jumped off the screen? Let us know -- e-mail us at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Four Downs in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that if the Steelers have decided to release WR Hines Ward he is unaware of it. The NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012. However, a source close to Ward said no one from the Steelers has indicated to him the team plans to release him. Ward, who could not be reached for comment, issued a statement on his Facebook page after the NFL Network report that said, "I don't normally like to respond to rumors, but as I've said all along, I want to finish my career with the Pittsburgh Steelers. And as I've already told the organization, I am willing to work with them to restructure my contract to make sure this happens.'' Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

Benjamin Watson
Watson over concussions
Benjamin Watson, TE, CLE
9:43 AM
News: The Boston Herald reports that Browns TE Benjamin Watson, who was placed on season-ending injured reserve in Cleveland in December due to concussion problems, said he was doing fine, had no lingering effects, and was ready to move forward and prepare to tackle his ninth season in 2012. Watson played in 13 games, and suffered three concussions, including in the preseason. After the third, which occurred against Pittsburgh in Week 14, doctors decided it would be best for him to shut it down. “I’m great. Three or four days after the last incident, I felt normal. I past all my cognitive tests. I didn’t have any headaches. I didn’t have any nausea. I didn’t have any dizziness,” he said. “With three games left, they just erred on the side of caution and decided to end the season for me. You hate for that to happen, but that’s why the doctors are in place. As far as lingering symptoms, I didn’t have anything. I know some guys have headaches for weeks. That wasn’t my scenario, thankfully. So hopefully, it was just a bad luck year.”
Analysis: Watson hopes to remain with the Browns in 2012 in what will be a contract year. He will likely compete with Evan Moore for playing time, but Watson has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Ignore him in most formats on Draft Day.

Richard Seymour
Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
2/12/2012
News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.
Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

 
 
 
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