Fantasy & Reality: Weathering through Week 13
By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow DaveFollow CBS Fantasy Football
Week 13 will go down in the books as one of the strangest in the history of Fantasy Football. With playoff spots on the line in the majority of leagues, owners had to overcome early-week schedule setting, challenging matchup problems and bad weather across the East Coast in order to clinch a victory.
Here's a rundown.
• It was Thanksgiving Day and everything went according to plan. The turkey was in the oven, the whole house smelled good, the family was loafing on the couch and Titans rookie running back Chris Johnson scored twice in the first seven minutes to put his club on pace to blowout the soon-to-be-0-16 Lions. That was followed by Tony Romo scalding the Seahawks for 331 yards and three touchdowns, his second such game since coming back from his broken pinkie.
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| Brian Westbrook made a lot of owners feel like turkeys on Thursday. (US Presswire) |
It proved to be the nicest weather a team that side of the Mississippi played in.
• Sunday morning arrived and the talk was either about players shooting themselves in the leg (more on that later) or the brutal weather that gripped the eastern seaboard. If it wasn't raining, it was snowing. If it wasn't breezy, it was downright blustery. Even in Tampa Bay, where the Buccaneers usually hold court with an advantage because of the heat, the wind was blowing upwards of 30 miles per hour and the weather was so bad that tornado watches were posted. Just lousy for a dome team that loves to pass deep and put up points.
But the Saints' moderate (for them) stat totals were much better than what we got out of Peyton Manning and the Colts. Playing in even worse conditions (rain, gusty winds and 36 degrees), Indianapolis came out of the gate flat offensively and mustered only three points after struggling in goal-line situations while playing without a healthy offensive line, forcing Peyton Manning to be uncomfortable and make uneasy decisions to receivers that play better in good conditions. Any Fantasy owner that had any Indianapolis player was let down, especially the ones who were on the brink of the postseason and made a trade deadline deal to get Manning, Joseph Addai or Reggie Wayne with the idea that their matchup at Cleveland would be a barnstormer that would give them a chance to win. Mother Nature had other ideas.
In fact, Mother Nature wreaked havoc in every game. Brees completed a season-low 53.2 percent of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt, both way off his normal totals. Jake Delhomme only tried 17 passes in a game that the Panthers had no right winning. Jeff Garcia completed just 9-of-23 passes. And don't get me started on Peyton Manning's awful totals.
The only games mildly affected by weather were the Giants-Redskins clash and the Ravens' one-sided rout of the Bengals. Go figure that on a day where Plaxico Burress was inactive and rain was coming down, Eli Manning posts his first 300-yard day of the season, and that Joe Flacco would have the second-best week of any quarterback playing on the road.
And then came the late afternoon games.
• With rain pouring down in Foxboro and New Jersey, both road teams -- the Steelers (against the Patriots) and the Broncos (against the Jets) -- made fewer mistakes on offense and forced more mistakes on defense to win their contests.
Matt Cassel did enough in the first half to keep his Patriots close with the Steelers, but after seeing Pittsburgh score twice in a minute and change in the second half, Cassel unraveled and was stripped of the ball twice on sacks in consecutive possessions before throwing interceptions in consecutive possessions. After throwing for over 800 yards in his last two games, Cassel showed why he's not quite ready to be another franchise's starting quarterback. And even though the Steelers turned Cassel into a dud in a pouring rainstorm, they probably would have been just as effective if it was a warm summer evening.
The same can be said for the Broncos, who built their lead on a defensive touchdown and a long score from Jay Cutler to Eddie Royal in the first half and never relinquished it. The Jets' offense fizzled out after Thomas Jones scooted for both scores and Brett Favre had one of those games.
Again, just in time for the most important week of Fantasy Football for most owners.
• And what week would be more fitting for a 99-yard touchdown pass than this one? Bernard Berrian hauled in a rainbow pass from Gus Frerotte from the Minnesota 1 and sped away from Bears cornerback Charles Tillman to pace the Vikings to first place in the NFC North. Berrian, you're forgiven for your previous three games. Playing indoors for the rest of the season, expect Berrian to be a can't-miss starter for your team.
All told, it wasn't the scoring onslaught that we saw in Week 12, the highest-scoring week in NFL history. And it was littered with plenty of sickening outings by some of Fantasy's most prominent players. But it's certainly one to remember, and learn from.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: West Coast teams can't win out East. The 49ers proved that, but they still stunk up Ralph Wilson Stadium with their ugly offensive stats. Kudos to those of you that had the, um, intestinal fortitude to bench Frank Gore in Week 13 as he was stuck in mud all game long. Also, kudos to Mike Martz for giving Gore 24 carries, the most he's had since Week 3. That does bode well for Gore's remaining season.
Reality: The Browns are finished. This isn't breaking news by any stretch, but with Derek Anderson expected to join Brady Quinn on Injured Reserve -- leaving former Miami Hurricane National Champion quarterback Ken Dorsey to go under center -- you can safely downgrade Braylon Edwards from "guy who you have to start but likely be disappointed with" to "guy you can easily bench." And a little message for Jamal Lewis: If you can't run on the Colts, you can't run on anybody.
Fantasy: Mark Clayton is too inconsistent to help Fantasy owners. Very quietly (well, until Sunday), Clayton had been improving as a functional member of the Ravens offense. Before taking his Week 13 game into consideration, Clayton was already having his best month of the season with 10 catches at a clip of 21.3 yards per catch. Then he exploded for some deep gains and two scores (one receiving, one passing) against the Bengals. Clayton hasn't run this rampant since 2006, and as a charitable man who has played Fantasy Football on our site before, we're glad to see him doing well. With three home games left this season and the Ravens willing to use him as more than just a speed receiver, Clayton can be trusted as a No. 3 receiving option in deeper leagues, and that makes his team all the more dangerous for the end of the NFL season.
Reality: Larry Johnson is all the way back. While he won't give you significant stat totals, the one thing we learned from the Chiefs' game against the Raiders is that Kansas City is ready to ride Johnson again. His 92 rush yards and one touchdown against Oakland were great, but seeing him with 24 carries (and Jamaal Charles with just two) is a sign that he's going to be more involved in the offense. With games at Denver and vs. San Diego and Miami on the horizon, don't be surprised to see Johnson win some people their Fantasy leagues.
Fantasy: Matt Cassel can't be trusted any further. There's no doubt that Cassel's nightmarish four-turnover outing against the Steelers will scare off some Fantasy owners, but this is no time to give up on him. The Patriots will play at the Seahawks next week, then at the Raiders followed by a home finale vs. the Cardinals and a date at the Bills. While the travel will wear on the Pats, the truth is that none of these defenses will stymie them like the Steelers did. Assuming Wes Welker is able to play, Cassel could be back among the top Fantasy passers as soon as next week.
Reality: LaDainian Tomlinson isn't necessarily a must-start. It's come to this for Tomlinson's Fantasy owners: If not for a touchdown off a Falcons turnover, he'd be a huge Week 13 bust. He averaged 1.7 yards per carry against the Falcons, didn't have a single carry longer than 6 yards and continues to limit the effectiveness of the San Diego offense. Now the conundrum begins for his Fantasy owners as he's expected to start in four days against the Raiders at home. The matchup is a dream -- Oakland's awful against the run and Tomlinson has regularly beat up on them in the past, including earlier this year. No one is saying to bench Tomlinson -- you must start him -- but if he goes out there and musters up less than 100 total yards with one or zero scores, then it will be time to start reconsidering his place in Fantasy Football.
Strategy session
I survived to play another day in my Fantasy league. What do I need to know about weather, how it impacts football players and whether or not it impacts my Fantasy lineup?
There are two schools of thought when it comes to Fantasy Football and watching the skies: One says to start your studs regardless of the conditions, the other says to factor the conditions heavily into your lineup choices. The reality is that if there's something that's going to potentially impact the stats of a player on your Fantasy team, you can't outright ignore it.
First, let's get you straight on the three prominent weather conditions that Fantasy owners will face in the next month.
Rain: The rule of thumb here is that anything from a light drizzle to your typical thunderstorm won't impact a football game. That's because referees and ball boys do a good job of keeping the football dry in between plays, players tend to wear gloves in inclement weather, and the field crew at most NFL stadiums keep the field in good shape (drainage systems in all cities except Pittsburgh are also very functional). Only when a team plays in a torrential downpour should Fantasy owners think twice as field vision, ball handling and receiving and pass trajectory are compromised, as is the condition of the field which could lead to slipping when a player tries to cut. Usually, torrential rain means more running and less passing.
Wind: Believe it or not, wind impacts a game far more than rain, but it has to be a strong wind. Anything under 15 miles per hour is meaningless and anything under 20 miles per hour won't make much of a dent except on the softest of deep touch passes and field goal attempts. It's when wind gusts pop to around 25 miles per hour or so when passes start to sail and the kicking game dissolves. Granted, quarterbacks and kickers are educated on how wind can play with their passes, but sometimes gross readjustments can lead to turnovers and missed scores. Additionally, the direction of the wind also plays a role -- if we're playing football in a wind storm, but the wind is at our backs, then our passes will go even longer and we can score some points. But if the wind is smacking us in the face, we're going to have some problems. Only if winds are really howling should Fantasy owners reconsider a quarterback or a receiver, and that goes double if it's raining or snowing.
Snow: Usually, if it's snowing, it's cold outside. A light snow flurry is delightful to watch, and not so bad to play in. But when the white stuff is coming down, it's harder to see down field. When it's coming down and sticking to the field, there's a lot of issues. Not only can you not see, but it's impossible to run effectively. And when it's coming down, sticking to the field and colder than North Dakota in January, the conditions are really bad. The game plays slower. In that case, snow can become icy and thus lead to a lot of slipping and sliding, even if you're running in the longest of cleats. Usually when it's snowing outside, you can expect a lot of work for running backs.
The key point to remember is this: No weather condition is bad for a running back, other than a sloppy field. But any of these conditions, when extreme, play serious havoc with a passing game, especially one that relies on deep routes. It takes timing and accuracy to make a pass work, and if those elements can't be perfect because of the weather, gaudy statistics won't follow.
Future watch
A quick pre-offseason glance at non-playoff teams. Hopefully this will be of interest to those Fantasy owners out of their league's playoff race.
Cincinnati Bengals: Can anyone say with any certainty that Carson Palmer will be under center for Cincy in Week 1 next season? Palmer has been sidelined with torn ligaments in his elbow, and he might require surgery, possibly the Tommy John procedure that many baseball players have had, and Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme had last year. Delhomme had to endure several months of rehab, and even after it, he's begun showing signs that his arm can't hold up for 16 games. So Cincinnati's problems start there. They continue with a running game that's been non-existent for much of the season. Chris Perry has been jumped on the depth chart by Cedric Benson, who joined the team in Week 5. And if that's not enough, T.J. Houshmandzadeh is scheduled to be a free agent (the club will likely franchise him) and Chad Johnson will surely make noise this offseason. Oh, and the offensive line is still a mess. The defense is, too. All signs point to the Bengals going through the motions of a rebuilding franchise. Again. But how's this for forward thinking: Cincinnati should try to move both Houshmandzadeh and Johnson via trade for draft picks, then use those picks to rebuild the offensive line and defensive front seven. Remember, the club spent a pair of draft picks on receivers last year and could become more of a ball-control offense with improved talent on the line of scrimmage. But until that happens, figure that Houshmandzadeh and Johnson will stick on the team. Let's just hope someone better than Ryan Fitzpatrick is throwing them the football.
Likely Fantasy starters in 2009: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson, Carson Palmer
Likely Fantasy sleepers in 2009: Cedric Benson, Andre Caldwell
Guys who might be on the move: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson, Chris Henry
Parting shots
• The thought hit me like a ton of bricks Sunday night: How many of the quarterbacks that were on active rosters (essentially just starters and backups) in Week 1 haven't started a game this season? By my count, the answer is 16, exactly half of the NFL. (Matt Leinart, Kevin Kolb, David Carr, Todd Collins, Mark Brunell, Chad Henne, Josh McCown, Matt Flynn, Jim Sorgi, Troy Smith, Chris Redman, Billy Volek, Byron Leftwich, Darrell Hackney, Kellen Clemens and Cleo Lemon.)
What does this mean? I suppose it's just another sign that if you're going to win in the NFL, you need two quarterbacks. Subsequently, if you're going to win in Fantasy Football, you will also need two quarterbacks since one in two Week 1 starters have missed at least one start this season.
• A quick word on Plaxico Burress: If I were a key executive with the Giants, I support him as much as possible, help him get healthy and back on his feet ... and then I kick him to the curb when this whole gun-wielding incident is over. Two reasons for it: One, Burress has been a distraction since before this year started when he barked about a new contract. He was since rewarded, and what exactly did he do to show thanks for his mega-deal? Ditched meetings, posted one 100-yard game, scored four times in 10 games and broke New York state gun laws, that's what. Two, the Giants are clearly unaffected by his absence as they haven't lost a game without him. They simply don't need him or his off-field antics. I can't see how he'll be a Giant in 2009. There's a chance he won't even be draftable in Fantasy leagues in 2009.
• The more I watch him, the more I can't see myself drafting LaDainian Tomlinson in any league next year. What an amazing statement to type and read.
• The Chicago Bears have faced Adrian Peterson four times. In those four games, he has rushed for over 120 yards three times, over 200 yards once and scored eight times. It doesn't even matter how good the Bears run defense is, he just bowls over them.
Peterson also has rushed for over 100 yards in every game he's finished against the Packers and all but one game against the Lions, who he plays in Week 14. Boy, did he get drafted into the right division -- he's got potential to be a lock for 700 yards and six touchdowns just in those six games every season!
No coincidence that I mention Peterson and how great he is immediately after writing about how L.T. is someone I won't draft next year. No coincidence at all.
• Add the Bengals to the list of defenses I'd like my Fantasy starters to play against. With Johnathan Joseph, Robert Geathers and Frostee Rucker out for the year, teams are going to start giving Cincy the rag-doll treatment. Week 14's opponent: Indianapolis at home. Better be a get-well game for Reggie Wayne.
And how about the Bengals on the cusp of going 1-14-1 and not a lock to have the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft? That is a symbol of Bengals futility.
• Congratulations, Cadillac Williams. You worked your tail off to get back here, and you deserve this chance. Keep up the good work.
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