Do you have a question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll address as many as we can. Put Attn: Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Include your name, hometown and state.
Thanks for nothing.
On a day of celebration, when we pause to give thanks for our many blessings -- football among them -- something prohibited Mr. Fantasy from having the good time he deserved.
The world of Fantasy Football had gone horribly and disastrously wrong.
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With so few options at tight end, Jason Witten should always be a must start.
(US Presswire)
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Jason Witten, still limited by a broken rib that had him averaging 13.3 receiving yards over his previous four games, had nine catches for 115 yards and a touchdown.
Brian Westbrook, hobbled by ankle and knee injuries that had kept him out of the end zone for four straight weeks, scored four touchdowns.
Donovan McNabb, coming off a game in which he momentarily
lost his job, threw a season-high four touchdown passes.
Mr. Fantasy didn't start any of them, and worse yet, he told his readers to do the same.
For him, that day of celebration became one of shame and humiliation, of loss and regret. While those three players used it to resuscitate their reputations in Fantasy, Mr. Fantasy used it to destroy his. And as his season came crashing down, he could do nothing but sit dumbfounded in front of the TV screen, wondering how his Fantasy teams would survive such sweeping miscalculations.
They went 2-1, for the record.
But now, we can only move forward. And as the dust from the Thanksgiving Day disaster settles, we can't help but ask ourselves what lessons we should take from these humbling events. Here's mine:
1. Unless Westbrook ends up on the pregame inactives list, he starts for my Fantasy team -- end of story. He's an untouchable, after all, and you don't sit untouchables, ever, unless you want to risk ruining Thanksgiving for everybody.
2. Tony Romo loves Witten more than I love green bean casserole -- and I digs me some green bean casserole. Obviously, you'd never bench him in a league where you have to start a tight end, because you'd just have so few alternatives, but in a league where you'd use him as a wide receiver, he again ranks as one of the best.
3. McNabb, for as much as his performance might have annoyed you, me and everyone else, deserved to sit in Fantasy leagues that day. He entered the game on such a short leash that if he happened to turn the ball over on the first series, the Eagles might have pulled him, leaving you with negative points at the highest-scoring position in Fantasy. You would have lost when maybe all you needed to win was a 200-yard, two-touchdown performance from your quarterback.
For as long as I write about Fantasy sports, I'll maintain that the right decision doesn't always yield the best outcome. The unexpected happens, and if you beat yourself up every time it does, you'll end up second-guessing the right decisions, committing to the wrong decisions more and more and getting all of the wrong outcomes that follow.
Now, let's see how well Mr. Fantasy can apply these lessons to future considerations:
Well, I barely made the playoffs in spite of Peyton Manning's poor performance. Can I trust him to rebound, or should I start Matt Cassel? -- Mark Helveston, Elk Rapids, Mich.
SW: And right away, Mark gives us a perfect opportunity to apply those lessons. Manning is a Fantasy stud, like Westbrook. He's coming off a dreadful performance, like Westbrook, throwing for 125 yards and two interceptions against a Browns secondary he should have shredded. If you have a halfway decent alternative on your bench, like Cassel, you might consider benching your stud, especially when that alternative has such a friendly matchup at Seattle.
And if Manning played against a shutdown defense like the Steelers or the Ravens, you might have justifiable reason to start Cassel instead. But let's not forget Manning has a nice matchup of his own, maybe even a better one considering he plays at home against the Bengals.
Most likely, both of these quarterbacks will have big games. The cards just stack up that way. But because Manning remains a no-brainer to start in Fantasy, even if you opt to go with him, and he struggles while Cassel performs well, you'll have an easier time justifying your decision than if the reverse happens. I mean, what if they both struggle, and Gus Frerotte throws three touchdown passes. Would you really wonder why you didn't start him instead? Obviously, that's a more extreme example, but the same principle idea applies: Stuff happens.
Hey, if I started Westbrook on Thanksgiving, and he did nothing while Ryan Grant scored four touchdowns on my bench, I think I might have still had a halfway enjoyable Thanksgiving. After all, who in their right mind would have benched Westbrook for Grant?
Oh, that's right. I did.
I currently start Adrian Peterson and Ryan Grant every week. With Grant nursing a thumb injury, should I consider sitting him this week and starting Tim Hightower in his place? I'm just worried that Brandon Jackson could take a bunch of carries away again this week. -- Dave Crowe, Chicago
SW: Ryan Grant ... speak of the devil.
Here's where I get a little gun-shy, Dave. I certainly have my doubts about Grant's availability for the whole game, but I could see him catching me off guard like Westbrook did against the Cardinals, especially since he has an equally good matchup against the Texans. Then again, Grant, as I hinted in the last question, is no Westbrook, so he wouldn't score four touchdowns in this game even at full capacity ... in theory.
Of course, Hightower wouldn't either -- not a chance. I don't like Hightower. I did when he first became the starter, but I don't anymore. How can I love a guy who has averaged two yards per carry over the last four weeks, twice against suspect defenses? (Then again, Westbrook had averaged 3.0 yards per carry over his previous four games, but enough already. Enough.) Of course, Hightower's one good came as a starter came against the Rams, when he ran for 109 yards on 22 carries in Week 9.
Still, I don't trust him, and I wonder if the Cardinals do. Hightower has struggled so much since that first Rams game that the Cardinals might choose to build up a big lead with their passing game and then kill the clock with some combination of J.J. Arrington and Hightower. I still consider Hightower a decent sleeper this week based on matchup, but if Grant ends up active for Sunday's game, I'd prefer to start him instead.
This is the first week of the playoffs, and I need to start two running backs. I have Tim Hightower vs. St. Louis, Ronnie Brown at Buffalo, Chris Johnson and LenDale White vs. Cleveland and Reggie Bush vs. Atlanta -- five guys and no obvious two starters in my mind. Who should I start? -- Jerry Lance
SW: Well, I think you err in one part of your assessment, Lance: You don't consider Johnson an obvious start. He is; he always has been, and while I could envision a scenario where someone loaded at running back would choose to bench him, I think someone in your situation would want to keep him active for the rest of the season except Week 16 against the Steelers. I know he slumped for a few games before facing the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, but the Titans have said they want to emphasize their running game going forward. He'll finish strong.
As for your second running back, you already know I have my doubts about Hightower against the Rams, and I don't trust Bush's knee against the Falcons after he got only three carries against the Buccaneers. Honestly, Brown looks like your safest start even though he has as many as 60 yards rushing in only one of his last eight games. If you need a home run, I could see you starting Hightower instead, but I'd probably play it safe and go with Brown.
I have a bit of a dilemma this week with my running backs. I start three, two of which will be Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson. The third one will be Clinton Portis, Ronnie Brown, Chester Taylor or Brandon Jackson (if Ryan Grant is out). I'm actually leaning toward Taylor at this point for two reasons: First of all, I don't like Portis' and Brown's matchups. Secondly, Taylor faces the Lions, and we've seen both No. 1 and No. 2 backs have great days against them. What's your opinion? Am I nuts for starting two backs on the same team? -- Tom Gommels, Rochester, Minn.
SW: Nuts? No. But I don't think you need to resort to such a measure with the quality of your alternatives.
First, if Jackson starts instead of Grant (an unlikely scenario at this point), you'll obviously want to go with him. He averaged 7.3 yards per carry after replacing Grant in the second half against the Panthers and would have an even better matchup against the Texans.
You obviously can't start Portis because of his injury concerns and the fact he faces the best run defense in the league -- hey, Westbrook didn't have to face the Steelers on Thanksgiving -- so if you can't use Jackson, I'd go with Brown. I know he hasn't played his best recently, but he remains a much more central part of his team's offense than Taylor, who unlike LenDale White against the Lions last week, is more the No. 2 running back in Minnesota than No. 1-A. I could see him exploding against the Lions if the Vikings build a big lead and remove Peterson, but I could just as easily see him giving you nothing.
I have two tough matchup choices that should be easy. Looking for some advice. First, let's talk defense. Should I play Baltimore (home against Washington), or Minnesota (at Detroit)? I've been riding Baltimore, and it's hard to turn my back on it. But Minny's matchup with Detroit is calling to me. Also, at quarterback, should I go with Tyler Thigpen (at Denver) or Jake Delholmme (home against Tampa Bay)? I'm leaning heavily toward Thigpen with Denver's spotty pass defense, but Delhomme at home is much better than Delhomme away. What do you think? -- Jonathan Hirshey
SW: The choices should be easy, Jonathan, because they are. Look, the Ravens DST is normally a must-start option, but when you have a defense nearly as good -- really, when you have any defense halfway competent -- going against the Lions, you have to start it. And I say that even with the Vikings losing defensive linemen Pat Williams and Kevin Williams to suspension. Detroit is in every way a disaster -- just look at quarterback Daunte Culpepper's numbers if you don't believe me -- and if it ends up with 300 yards or 20 points against the Vikings, my jaw will drop.
And do you really want to factor in home-away splits for Delhomme when the matchups make your quarterback decision a no-brainer? You'd actually consider starting him, the inferior Fantasy quarterback, against the dreaded Tampa 2 over Thigpen, the superior Fantasy quarterback, against the bumbling Denver secondary? Let's not sell Thigpen short after he had one rough game against an Oakland pass defense that shut down Jay Cutler just one week earlier. In my eyes, he remains a clear No. 1 Fantasy quarterback and the guy you want to start.
I would like to start all four of my running backs this week, but our league rules allow only a maximum of three. Which three of the following should I start: Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Thomas Jones and Peyton Hillis? I believe Jones is a must-start every week. I think a now-healthy Jackson also needs to be in my lineup. Do I start Hillis over Gore? Last week, Hillis ripped the Jets, a team that's been stopping everyone. He now faces the Chiefs, who have allowed more rushing yards than almost every other team in the league. I just have a hard time putting Gore on my bench. What are your thoughts? Thanks! -- Mark Saunders, Saline, Mich.
SW: I understand your concern. I wouldn't want to put Gore on my bench either, and I don't think you should have to.
You're right to prioritize Hillis at this point, particularly against that joke of a run defense in Kansas City. His 129 yards against the Jets this past week makes him a No. 2 Fantasy option regardless of the matchup. Also, Jones has surfaced as a must-start this season unless he faces a dominant run defense, which the 49ers clearly don't have.
I think you err by calling Jackson a must-start when healthy. On a terrible Rams offense, he could easily go without a red-zone touch all day, and he has rushed for less than 70 yards in four of his eight healthy games this season.
And the key word there is healthy. With his injury history, couldn't you see him hobbling off the field midway through the first quarter with a pulled groin? Obviously, that line of thinking shouldn't dissuade most of his owners from starting him, but when you have so many viable alternatives, you can afford to entertain it.
Gore remains too valuable to sit. He recently had a stretch of three straight games with at least 90 yards rushing, and even when the 49ers fall behind, they incorporate him enough in the passing game for him to make a Fantasy impact.
I am soooooo tired of LaDainian Tomlinson owners whining. I drafted Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne and T.J. Houshmandzadeh with my first three picks. So how can I be in first place in my league? Look no further than Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams and Jay Cutler, taken in the fifth, 12th and 16th rounds. And this isn't a one-time incident. In the 11 years of our league, it is almost always how you draft later that determines your fate. So if you own Tomlinson and miss the playoffs, it's more likely your own fault than Tomlinson's. -- Chris Jackson, Trenton, Ontario
SW: Well, I certainly wouldn't defend anyone who drafted Tom Brady in the first round and then threw in the towel the moment he got injured. With every Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and even Tyler Thigpen who emerges each year, one key pickup would have gotten that Brady owner right back in the race.
But at the same time, the world of Fantasy sports has a saying: You can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it. With your first-round pick, you aim to select a player who will end up your most reliable and most outstanding -- the one you can lean on week to week and who might even win you a couple of games single-handedly. If your pick suffers an injury or, in the case of Tomlinson, grossly underperforms, you have a huge disadvantage because everyone else in the league still has their most reliable, most outstanding players.
Fortunately, the turnover of talent in football from year to year allows you the opportunity to overcome that disadvantage, as you have by selecting Turner, Williams and Cutler in the middle-to-late rounds. But for every Turner, Williams and Cutler, you could just as easily end up with a Julius Jones, Selvin Young or Jason Campbell. I don't mean to take anything away from your success, which I applaud, or your clever draft, which I acknowledge, but you can't deny you owe your position somewhat to luck. Your sleepers ended up the best sleepers, which takes both good foresight and good fortune. Without either, your season would have just as easily ended up in the crapper.
I agree that Tomlinson owners shouldn't use him as a scapegoat for any of their struggles, but it's not like I have no sympathy for them.
I squeaked into our playoffs this year. However, things are bad, and I could use some words of encouragement. I need to start two running backs, but my matchups for the remainder are miserable, and the players are starting to nurse injuries (Marion Barber, Clinton Portis, Chris Johnson and Willie Parker). Also, my receivers make me cry -- literally there's a tear running down my cheek right now. I need to start three of Donnie Avery, Justin Gage, Jerricho Cotchery, Bernard Berrian, Eddie Royal and Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is studly, but I never pick the other two correctly. Berrian seems mediocre at best if he doesn't get his 70-yard bomb each week. Royal gets some love here and there, but it's sporadic. Cotchery does well, but Dustin Keller is the new flavor in Favre-ville. And Gage and Avery, well ... UGH!!! My receiving crew is the pits. Thanks for some help. -- Jay Scott, Jersey City, N.J.
SW: I've seen far worse, Jay, so no need to have a conniption. Really, without even looking at your other options, you have a pretty big advantage over your opponents with Fitzgerald, who ranks second at the position in standard scoring. Berrian ranks 13th, making him the top-ranked No. 2 wide receiver in 12-team leagues, and Royal ranks 19th, making him a legitimate No. 2 who you have starting as a No. 3.
If you have trouble picking the right receivers every week, my recommendation is to stop trying. If you get to mixing and matching too much, you can mix and match yourself right out of every big performance, making the sum of your receiving corps less than the parts. Obviously, the parts are as good as they should be, so if you have trouble scoring, I suggest you stop tinkering.
And I'd stick with those three specifically -- certainly Fitzgerald and Royal. I might fiddle a little with Berrian and Cotchery since Berrian had a long cold spell before that 99-yard touchdown reception Sunday night, but I still think Berrian has the better numbers going forward.
At running back, I think the matchups make your decision fairly straightforward this week. Johnson is an obvious start. Barber's toe makes him a question mark already, and since he plays the Steelers, you should probably have him sitting. Same goes for Portis and his oblique injury against the Ravens. If one of those two shows major improvement during the week, I'd give him the nod over Parker, but for now, go with Johnson and Parker.
Do you have a question? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll address as many as we can. Put Attn: Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Include your name, hometown and state.
