What a 2009 first round might look like

Senior Fantasy Writer

Dec. 19, 2008

Adrian Peterson is a lock as the No. 1 overall pick in every Fantasy league next year. He has earned that selection and has no challengers to the throne in 2009.

But picking second is going to be tough. The same goes for third, fourth, fifth and nearly every pick throughout the first round in a standard-scoring, 12-team league.


There is no doubt who the top pick in 2009 Fantasy drafts will be. (US Presswire)

Trust me, I had a hard time trying to figure it out with this mock draft of the 2009 first round.

Last year, there was a consensus Top 3 with LaDainian Tomlinson, Peterson and Brian Westbrook. Tom Brady was part of the discussion, but the three running backs were the first three players selected in the majority of leagues, according to their average draft position on CBSSports.com.

There's no telling what will happen in 2009. The selections here go Michael Turner second, Maurice Jones-Drew third, DeAngelo Williams fourth and Matt Forte fifth, but it wouldn't be a surprise if Tomlinson, Westbrook, Frank Gore and Marion Barber went ahead of all those players.

You won't see any quarterbacks or wide receivers in my first round. I'd settle for Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Tony Romo in the second round because the running backs have better value in my opinion. If I miss on those quarterbacks, I can always take Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers or Matt Ryan later, among others.

And at wide receiver, I love Andre Johnson as the No. 1 player at his position, but there's also enough value in other players like Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Reggie Wayne, Terrell Owens, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith and Roddy White to wait. You can still get one or two stud receivers in Round 2 or later.

I'll stick with the running backs, and the 12 listed below are who I would take in the first round. The tough omissions were Marshawn Lynch, Clinton Portis and Joseph Addai.

Lynch would be a top pick in the second round because I don't know how much better he will get than what he already is. With Portis, the mess in Washington with Jim Zorn is a concern, and I'm worried about Portis' wear and tear even though he's only 27. And Addai has proven he is a second-round pick and not worth taking any higher going into 2009.

Obviously, a lot will change between now and next summer when we start drafting for the 2009 season. But based on what has happened this year and what could happen next season, this is how a potential first round might look.

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota
Age: 23
Fantasy Fact: Peterson leads the NFL in rushing despite no 200-yard games and four games with less than 100 yards in 2008.
Analysis: It's obvious that Peterson is going to be the No. 1 player taken in every Fantasy league in 2009. He was even a potential No. 1 overall selection in 2008 and has lived up to the billing by leading the NFL in rushing yards coming into Week 16 and closing in on double digits in touchdowns. Peterson is an explosive player in an offense catered to his skills with a solid offensive line. If the quarterback play improves in Minnesota next year, Peterson would only get better with less focus from opposing defenses. Peterson will be a candidate for 2,000 total yards every season.

2. Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta
Age: 26
Fantasy Fact: Turner has almost as many multiple-touchdown games (four) as he does receptions (six) for the season.
Analysis: Entering Week 16, Turner is the No. 1 Fantasy running back in a standard-scoring league. It would be nice to see him catch the ball more, but Turner has proven he can run for 200 yards in a game and score multiple touchdowns. The offense in Atlanta is only going to improve as Matt Ryan continues to develop, and Turner will be a candidate for 1,500 rushing yards and double digits in touchdowns every season. He has made a smooth transition from LaDainian Tomlinson's backup to the Falcons' starter and should be even better in 2009.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville
Age: 23
Fantasy Fact: Jones-Drew has scored a touchdown (38 total) in eight out of every 10 games (46) he's played in his career.
Analysis: Jones-Drew has been a solid Fantasy option since his rookie year in 2006, but he was never given the majority of carries the past three seasons with Fred Taylor still in the mix. But now it appears like Taylor will not return to the Jaguars next season, which should open the door for Jones-Drew to become a star. He is an accomplished receiver and has proven he can find the end zone. If the rushing yards follow as expected, Jones-Drew could be the best running back in Fantasy Football. He will enter 2009 with the chance to reach 2,000 total yards for the season.

4. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina
Age: 25
Fantasy Fact: Williams' start percentage on CBSSports.com went from 11 percent in Week 3 to 96 percent in Week 15.
Analysis: The concern for Williams and owners who draft him in 2009 is rookie Jonathan Stewart, but Williams proved he can exist with Stewart and still shine. Williams is knocking on the door of leading all running backs in Fantasy production in 2008, but that was with Stewart fighting toe and heel injuries all season. Still, Williams will remain the starter next season and get the majority of touches. With Carolina's offensive line among the best in the league, Williams will continue to produce outstanding results, and he should rush for about 1,500 yards and reach double digits in touchdowns.

5. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago
Age: 23
Fantasy Fact: Forte is the only running back to lead his team in rushing yards and receptions this season.
Analysis: In leagues where receptions count, Forte is the best running back in Fantasy Football. He has proven to be a dual threat and has no one to challenge him for carries in 2009. The Bears offensive line should remain stout next year, and if the quarterback play gets better, Forte will continue to benefit. The one area Forte needs to improve is scoring in the red zone, but he should remain in double digits in touchdowns for most of his career because of his receiving ability. In a loaded rookie class, Forte has quietly had the best year.

6. Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia
Age: 29
Fantasy Fact: Westbrook leads all running backs entering Week 16 with five receiving touchdowns.
Analysis: Westbrook will turn 30 next season, which will scare some owners off, but he remains a 2,000-total yard candidate and scored a career-high 14 touchdowns already this year heading into Week 16. The Eagles might have some turnover this offseason with coach Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb, which could alter Westbrook's Fantasy value, but he has at least one more good season left before you should be scared off. In leagues where receptions count, Westbrook could remain a Top 5 Fantasy option, but in all formats he should finish in the Top 10 once again.

7. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco
Age: 25
Fantasy Fact: Gore needs eight more catches in his final two games to reach his third-straight year with at least 50 grabs.
Analysis: Gore is a safe Fantasy option because he will give you over 1,000 yards rushing, over 400 yards receiving and eight touchdowns in a down season. In a good year, as Gore proved in 2006, he can reach 2,000 total yards and come close to 10 touchdowns. The 49ers appear headed in the right direction with Mike Singletary as coach and Shaun Hill at quarterback, and Gore will benefit with more playmakers on offense. It also helps that he plays in a weak NFC West division with Arizona, St. Louis and Seattle, three teams that struggle to stop the run.

8. Marion Barber, RB, Dallas
Age: 25
Fantasy Fact: Barber needs one more touchdown to reach three-straight years with at least 10 scores.
Analysis: The positives for Barber are he is a good source of touchdowns and has proven he can be a solid receiver out of the backfield. He will remain the starter in 2009 and should get the majority of touches. The negatives for Barber are the emergence of Felix Jones early in the season and Tashard Choice in recent weeks. Both running backs will cut into Barber's production next season. Barber also struggled in his first season as the starter, but he remains too good of a Fantasy option not to take in the Top 10. You know he will score at least 10 touchdowns and reach at least 1,200 total yards.

9. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis
Age: 25
Fantasy Fact: Jackson needs 226 yards in his final two games for his fourth-straight 1,000-yard season.
Analysis: If Jackson can stay healthy he would be a Top 5 Fantasy draft pick in all leagues. He missed four games this season while battling injuries and four games in 2007. But he remains a candidate for 2,000 total yards and 15 touchdowns when healthy. The Rams need a complete overhaul, but Jackson will remain the focal point on offense. You might be afraid to draft him in the Top 10, but he could reward you with a big season if he plays 16 games. And, like Frank Gore, he plays in the NFC West, where the three other teams struggle to defend the run.

10. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego
Age: 29
Fantasy Fact: Tomlinson needs one more touchdown and 76 more rushing yards for his eighth-straight season with at least 10 scores and 1,000 yards.
Analysis: Age, injuries and poor blocking have contributed to Tomlinson having the worst season of his career, but he's not through yet. The Chargers will have an easier schedule next year, and Tomlinson's offensive line should get better. You still have to worry about wear and tear since he'll be 30 in 2009, but he should still reach 1,200 total yards and 10 touchdowns. You also have to figure he'll be motivated following this disappointing season. Tomlinson could be a steal toward the end of the first round. It's not like the Chargers are giving up on him, and you shouldn't either. Not yet at least.

11. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee
Age: 23
Fantasy Fact: Johnson was drafted as the No. 37 running back in 2008, according to his average draft position on CBSSports.com.
Analysis: Johnson has a chance to be the next Brian Westbrook because of his speed and ability to catch the ball. He's only going to improve in 2009 and should be a definite first-round draft pick. The only downside for Johnson is every time the Titans get near the goal line LenDale White will continue to steal touchdowns. It will also be interesting to see how Johnson does in a full season with Vince Young at quarterback, since he's expected to return next year. Still, Johnson is the best player in Tennessee and should remain the focal point of the offense.

12. Steve Slaton, RB, Houston
Age: 22
Fantasy Fact: Slaton's start percentage on CBSSports.com went from 1 percent in Week 1 to 94 percent in Week 8.
Analysis: No player has improved his value more throughout the course of the season than Slaton, which is why he gets the nod here over Marshawn Lynch and Clinton Portis. The Texans offense is only going to improve in 2009, but Slaton has already shown he can run on some of the top defenses in the NFL. He's also a good receiver out of the backfield, and the AFC South is pretty porous against the run, especially Indianapolis and Jacksonville. Slaton will finish this season with 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns in limited work and should reach those totals next year as well.

Do you have a question for Jamey? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll get to as many as we can. Be sure to put Attn: 2009 First Round in the subject field. Include your name, hometown and state.

Starting job Wilson's to lose?
David Wilson, RB, NYG
1:57 PM

News: The Giants' official team website reports the starting running back job will be won in training camp and the preseason but that David Wilson is expected to earn it. "The general feeling is the job is Wilson’s to lose," wrote website writer and veteran Giants reporter Michael Eisen. The story adds Andre Brown is "in the mix" at running back.

Analysis: The speedster has immense upside in the Giants offense even though there will be weeks where Andre Brown will have more work and certainly scores more often. But if you give Wilson about 250 total touches over the season, which is feasible, then he'll have a chance at 1,200-plus total yards with his own share of scores. We consider Wilson a No. 2 Fantasy running back with upside. He's worth drafting as early as Round 4 so long as he's "in the mix" in training camp.

Knee flares up on LeSean
LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI
1:44 PM

News: Eagles running back LeSean McCoy was pulled from an OTA practice Monday with knee discomfort according to PhillyMag.com. He was on a sideline late in practice working on his own and getting stretched out by trainers. Per the Philadelphia Inquirer McCoy looked fine and said he "did something to his knee."

Analysis: It doesn't sound too serious. So long as McCoy is healthy and active for training camp there's nothing to be worried about. McCoy is expected to see a ton of work in the Eagles offense under new coach Chip Kelly. He has potential for a very good year, making him a Top 15 pick in all formats. Pairing him with Bryce Brown in Round 9 is a very smart idea.

Doctors confident in Gronk
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
10:42 AM

News: ESPN reports that Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is scheduled to undergo the fourth surgery on his left forearm on Monday, should be OK. The report says doctors feel confident that the infection has been eradicated, but they won't know for sure until they take tests during the procedure and then examine those over the next week. A new plate is expected to replace the one already in his arm and he will begin a new 10-11 week recovery period.

Analysis: We're glad to hear that Gronkowski should be OK after the forearm surgery, but he still has to deal with the upcoming procedure on his back, which should take place in 3-4 weeks. The goal is get Gronkowski back on the field for training camp, but he might not be ready until just before the start of the season. If Gronkowski is 100 percent with all his ailments then he has the chance to remain the No. 1 tight end in Fantasy with a pick in Round 2. But based on his health in May, he is dropping down the rank lists to more of a Top 5 Fantasy tight end. He's still worth drafting by Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues, but his value has taken a hit with another forearm surgery and the potential back problem. Stay tuned, and hopefully we get more good news as the offseason moves on.

RG3 begins throwing
Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
10:34 AM

News: The father for Robert Griffin III told USA Today his son has been throwing a football since late April. That suggests he's ahead of schedule and could be ready to play in Week 1 against the Eagles on Sept. 9. RG3 posted on Twitter he had been doing "a couple of roll out throws," meaning he's running and throwing at the same time. "Everybody in the organization is targeting that season opener," Robert Griffin II said.

Analysis: The father added that RG3 is a little ahead of himself in his rehab compared to when he tore his right ACL in college, another good sign. Griffin tore up his knee on January 6 and the typical recovery from just an ACL procedure is nine months. His knee was damaged beyond that -- he also injured his MCL and PCL. Training camp opens on July 25, less than seven months after he got hurt. The Redskins' first game takes place September 9, eight months and three days after he got hurt. If the Redskins approach the injury with the long-term picture in mind then they might not rush him back so soon. A Fantasy gameplan: Draft Griffin with a pick in Round 7 or 8 and pair him with Carson Palmer in the final rounds. Palmer has a great early-season schedule and the Cardinals take on the Panthers in Week 5 when the Redskins are on bye. We'll keep you posted on RG3.

Gillislee has chance to start
Mike Gillislee, RB, MIA
10:25 AM

News: The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports that Dolphins rookie Mike Gillislee, who ran for 1,152 yards and 10 touchdowns in his senior season at Florida, will compete with Lamar Miller, a 2012 fourth-round pick, and Daniel Thomas, a 2011 second-round pick, for the starting tailback spot during training camp this summer. Gillislee was drafted in the fifth round this year.

Analysis: We'd be shocked if Gillislee was the starting running back this season, but he doesn't have to leap frog proven veterans. Miller is unproven after barely playing as a rookie, and Thomas has struggled in two years. Still, Miller is expected to start, and Gillislee has the chance to beat out Thomas for the No. 2 job. Keep an eye on what happens, and unless Gillislee somehow ascends to the top of the depth chart he is only worth drafting with a late-round flier in standard leagues. In rookie-only formats take a chance on Gillislee with a second-round pick.

Vick: New offense is 'a lot easier'
Michael Vick, QB, PHI
9:15 AM

News: In an interview with 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia, Michael Vick said his critics "know nothing about football" and preferred not to address issues about his play up to this point. That's because he's excited about the future, mainly working in Chip Kelly's new up-tempo no-huddle offense. Vick's working on ball security with Kelly, just one of several areas he has to clean up in order to efficiently play, which he's excited to do. "We had a lot of deeper throws last year, which required more time," Vick said. "It's just a big difference. Not to say there was anything wrong with the West Coast system, I loved it. I spent seven years in it, and it was cool. But I think the change of pace for me at this point in my career is good and the game is a lot easier now."

Analysis: If Vick likes the new offense and thinks it's easier to run, that can only mean good things for his statistics. There's still a camp battle to be had with Nick Foles and rookie Matt Barkley but we expect Vick to get the job. How long he has it is another question since he has a propensity for getting hurt. Vick is one of the appealing No. 2 Fantasy QBs to draft with a mid-round pick this summer, particularly to pair up with a starter you end up waiting for on Draft Day.

Goodson watching practice
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
1:35 PM

News: As the Jets opened OTA practices on Monday running back Mike Goodson was on the sidelines. Goodson was slated to work in the rotation at running back but was arrested last week on drug and weapon charges. There's been speculation that Goodson's spot on the roster is in jeopardy because of his incident. "Still in fact-finding mode," Jets owner Woody Johnson told NFL Network regarding Goodson, adding GM John Idzik and coach Rex Ryan will talk to him about it further.

Analysis: By not practicing, Goodson can't get hurt. Players who get hurt practicing are promised the entirety of their annual contract. This suggests the Jets are non-committal to Goodson at this point and could move on from him. With Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight still on the roster, Goodson could be cut without much worry from the coaches or front office. We'll see what happens but Goodson shouldn't be on anyone's Fantasy team.

Schiano: Freeman is our starter
Josh Freeman, QB, TB
12:39 PM

News: After talking up rookie Mike Glennon and not fully committing to Josh Freeman in the last couple of hours, Bucs coach Greg Schiano came out and confirmed what we already figured. "We have a starting quarterback and it is Josh Freeman," the coach said Monday. Glennon was once recruited by Schiano while he coached at Rutgers but chose an ACC school over Schiano's Big East school. Schiano's interest in Glennon was believed to be so strong that he'd consider him for playing time if he did well in camp.

Analysis: So it appears Freeman will stay under center to begin the year for the Bucs but it doesn't mean he'll stay there. If Freeman gets off to a cold start or struggles mid-season then Schiano could pull him for Glennon, a move that wouldn't be a huge surprise given how much we know Schiano likes the youngster. Freeman has fantastic potential given the offense around him but must be drafted as a No. 2 quarterback with a late-round pick.

Brown 'in the mix' at RB?
Andre Brown, RB, NYG
2:00 PM

Analysis: The belief is that Brown will team with Wilson to form the Giants' run game in 2013, though Brown could be the man at the goal line. We consider Wilson the starter for the Giants, but Brown has the chance to play a prominent role. Consider Brown a No. 3 Fantasy option with upside worth drafting with a mid-round pick.

McGahee not present at OTAs
Willis McGahee, RB, DEN
12:27 PM

News: The Denver Post reports Broncos running back Willis McGahee is not expected to attend Monday's OTA workout. The voluntary session means he could practice away from the team. McGahee was present for Broncos OTA workouts last year. His agent told the paper that he'll attend. "He's following the same routine he's done his whole career. He'll be there," agent Chafie Fields said. "He's ready to compete. No messages."

Analysis: McGahee is assumed to be headed toward a limited role in Denver with rookie Montee Ball added in the draft. Broncos exec John Elway referred to McGahee as "that big back for us right now" about a month ago. Landing a lot of carries will be a challenge for him as he not only deals with a younger back who could supplant him but also coming back from a broken leg and torn MCL. While Ball is drawing plenty of attention in Fantasy, McGahee has turned into a late-round depth-filler with very limited potential.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings