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Jamey Eisenberg

Four Downs: Were you snowed under?

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


When we look back on the 2008 season, there are going to be many breakout performances. It was a year where several unexpected players had outstanding Fantasy seasons.

There were late-round steals in the draft with DeAngelo Williams, Isaac Bruce and Philip Rivers, rookie sensations with Matt Forte, Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson and stellar free agent pickups like Pierre Thomas, Tashard Choice and Antonio Bryant. But one player might be the biggest surprise -- Matt Cassel.

Cassel had arguably the toughest job in sports in replacing last year's MVP, Tom Brady, who was lost for the year in Week 1 with a knee injury. Cassel started slow and struggled to find his way, but since November, Cassel has helped many owners win a Fantasy title. And he was near-perfect in Week 16 against Arizona.

Kurt Warner threw for a whopping 30 yards before getting pulled. (US Presswire)  
Kurt Warner threw for a whopping 30 yards before getting pulled. (US Presswire)  
Fighting a snow storm, Cassel passed for 345 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Cardinals. He also had two carries for 19 yards. By comparison, Kurt Warner was held to 30 passing yards and no touchdowns before leaving in the third quarter.

In his past six games, Cassel has passed for 1,815 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has also added 128 rushing yards and a touchdown. That puts him among the best quarterbacks in the league over that span.

If you've been starting Cassel, he's come through and could have led you to a Fantasy championship. He's also kept Randy Moss and Wes Welker happy, with both scoring touchdowns again Sunday against the Cardinals.

The Patriots have returned as an offensive juggernaut against weaker opponents in Oakland and Arizona the past two weeks. Along with Cassel and the passing game, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and even LaMont Jordan have played well.

Morris ended his three-game scoring streak against the Cardinals but still had over 100 total yards, and Faulk and Jordan scored for the second week in a row. They should all do well again in Week 17 against Buffalo and are worth starting.

But Cassel is the story for the Patriots. He was snubbed for the Pro Bowl despite having a better year than Brett Favre under much tougher circumstances. You could even make a case that Cassel is the NFL's MVP because he has the Patriots on the verge of 11 wins and a playoff spot despite having to replace Brady.

We don't know where Cassel will end up next season as a free agent, but some team -- likely Detroit, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Seattle, St. Louis or the Jets -- will give him a big contract and an opportunity. His Fantasy value will definitely change, but we can get into that this offseason.

This year, Cassel has turned into a great story. And if you've been lucky enough to start him, you're probably celebrating a Fantasy championship.

First down

We already know Drew Brees is a great Fantasy option, and he had another standout game Sunday at Detroit with 351 passing yards and two touchdowns. But Brees can still help owners playing into Week 17 against Carolina, as will all of his receivers.

Brees is chasing Dan Marino's single-season record for passing yards, which is why he was in the game Sunday with a 35-point lead late in the fourth quarter. Brees now needs 402 yards passing at home against the Panthers to break Marino's record of 5,084 set in 1984.

So in Week 17, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and the running backs, mostly Pierre Thomas, are worth starting in some capacity. We know Brees is going to be throwing even though the Panthers are a tough defense.

As for Thomas, this week's Start of the Week, he played well with 77 rushing yards and a touchdown and three catches for 26 yards against the Lions, but he could have done more. The Saints had four rushing touchdowns, so Thomas lost some opportunities for Fantasy production.

Second down

It's always interesting to watch players at the end of the year audition for jobs. Antonio Bryant is a good example with his recent stretch of 26 catches for 498 yards and five touchdowns in his past four games. He had six catches for 127 yards and a touchdown Sunday against San Diego and has earned himself a nice raise this offseason. Look for another good game next week against Oakland.

Cedric Benson could be another player in that role. After gaining 161 total yards last week against Washington, Benson had a career-high 171 rushing yards against the Browns on Sunday. And he should run well again next week against Kansas City.

Benson is worth using as a No. 2 Fantasy running back against the Chiefs, which is something we never expected when this season started. But here we are, and Benson could help you in Week 17.

Don't be afraid of players like Benson or even Maurice Morris, who had 116 rushing yards against the Jets. Morris could also be worth starting in Week 17 against the Cardinals.

When you're looking at matchups for Week 17, take into account teams who could be resting players. Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Arizona and the Colts have nothing to play for next week and could be resting their starters.

That's why these second-tier players like Benson and Morris will be useful in the final week of the season.

Third down

Who is the No. 1 wide receiver in Fantasy Football in 2009? In my latest column, we addressed a mock draft for next year's first round, which ended up as all running backs since they will have the most value next season.

But who will be the No. 1 wide receiver among a group of Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Marques Colston, Roddy White, Terrell Owens and Greg Jennings. Those are arguably the 12 best options.

My order would be: Andre Johnson, Fitzgerald, Moss, Marshall, Boldin, Calvin Johnson, Wayne, Smith, Colston, White, Owens and Jennings.

Let me know your order by sending an e-mail to dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com and put "Wide Receivers" in the subject line. It will be interesting to see the different rankings for 2009.

Fourth down

For those of you following the Major League Baseball Fantasy Football League on CBSSports.com, Cleveland Indians designated hitter Travis Hafner has won the title. Hafner beat CBSSports.com representative Alex Riethmiller, who organizes the league and was the only non-baseball player of the 14 owners in the competition.

For Hafner, he was in his first season in the league. He had to overcome a 1-6 start to win the championship, and he made a shrewd move by trading Matt Forte and Jonathan Stewart for Brian Westbrook in the middle of the season. It paid off when he paired Westbrook with Adrian Peterson to win the title.

In the second-annual All-Female Fantasy Football League on CBSSports.com, Ashley Phagan is the champion over Kim Broder. This league featured 12 women from different parts of the country in various careers competing in a Fantasy league. Our own Lesley Visser and Lauren Shehadi took part in the league but failed to make the playoffs.

Some other observations: Congratulations to the Chargers for forcing an important game against Denver in Week 17 for the AFC West title. That game should be high-scoring and produce good Fantasy stats. ... Congratulations to Isaac Bruce, who went back to St. Louis and became the fifth player to reach 1,000 catches on a three-yard touchdown grab, which helped the 49ers win. Bruce has remained a quality Fantasy receiver this year. ... The Dolphins will win the AFC East if they can beat the Jets in New York next week. We'll find out if that's the last game of Favre's career. ... Tyler Thigpen and Shaun Hill will enter 2009 as great sleeper options at quarterback.

What are your thoughts from this week? See anything that jumped off the screen? Let us know -- e-mail us at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Four Downs in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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