Fantasy & Reality: A frightful Fantasy finish
By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow DaveFollow CBS Fantasy Football
Start your studs.
Simple advice, right? If you made it to Week 16 in the Fantasy postseason, you obviously got there with help from players who post some great stats on a weekly basis. And the advice from some people heading into Week 16 was that you start them no matter the matchup or conditions -- if they cost you the championship in your league, then oh well, at least you lost with your best players.
Of course, you'd still lose.
Honestly, that kind of advice is lazy -- who doesn't know to start their studs?!
With Week 16 in the books, and Week 17 meaning something to some of you, it's time to revisit this advice. And I'm not advocating the idea of benching your studs or making wild reaches with your lineup this late in the year just to be different or fancy, but there are better reasons to making lineup decisions than using a three-word mantra.
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| Two catches for 19 yards was all Andre Johnson could muster in Week 16. (US Presswire) |
A lot of players were held in check in the face of either bad weather conditions or tough matchups in Week 16, with none bigger than Kurt Warner. With snow falling on a freezing day in New England, Warner and the Cardinals lost interest early and wound up trying to grind down the clock in the first quarter. Warner had his first game without a touchdown since Nov. 4, 2007. And if not for a late garbage-time touchdown pass from Matt Leinart, Larry Fitzgerald would have suffered the same fate.
Tony Romo, usually a top-five Fantasy quarterback, finished 12th in standard-scoring leagues by virtue of his good game against the Ravens, and it would have been worse if not for some chaotic events in the final minutes leading to Romo getting ample opportunity to pass. Terrell Owens was equally good-but-not-great.
The only other stud players who exceeded expectations in the face of a bad matchup or weather were Randy Moss (two catches, one for 11 yards and one for 76 yards and a touchdown), LeRon McClain (57 yards on his first 21 carries, 82 yards and a touchdown on his last carry), Clinton Portis (81 total yards and a touchdown) and a snow-covered Matt Cassel (345 passing yards, three touchdowns, 19 rush yards).
Where Fantasy Football got painful in Week 16 was with the studs with great matchups that failed to produce. By my count, 11 guys that no one would have benched last week didn't top 10 Fantasy points in standard leagues: Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Bernard Berrian, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, Thomas Jones, Marshawn Lynch, Steve Slaton and the granddaddy of them all, Adrian Peterson.
And therein lies my point: Week 16 is no different than any other week. All of the 11 guys listed above would have been must-starts any week, and none of them were players anyone would have told you to steer clear of. But they still let you down. At the same time, players with challenges needed to be at the very least considered for the bench depending on who else you had available to you. Not taking the matchup into account and simply starting players based on name recognition or past overall performance is never a good idea.
My mantra has been and will remain this: It's all about the matchups. Chances are if you made your playoffs in your league even with some trouble during the regular season, it's your mantra too.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: DeShaun Foster will do well against the Rams. Hammered by the time of possession and some of Mike Martz's trademark "ignore the running back" play calling (four carries in the Niners' final four offensive possessions), Foster turned into the odd-man out in the 49ers offense, a bummer to be sure since anyone using him in place of Frank Gore in their leagues probably had a hard time winning.
Reality: After Tashard Choice topped 140 total yards against the Steelers and Giants, you can't exactly write him off against the Ravens. Anyone else starting to get the feeling that between the Cowboys' offensive line and offensive scheme, complete with talented receivers, any capable running back can be successful for Dallas? If so, then why did the Cowboys pay Marion Barber a slew of money last offseason? Additionally, how bad does this make Julius Jones look? I mean more than he looked already.
Fantasy: The Chargers can't win on the East Coast. We figured that the Chargers would pull out the stops and attack down field with big targets Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson. That's how they've been winning and it only made sense. I did my 2009 pre-rankings and have Philip Rivers third overall behind Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. Whether or not he ends up that high remains to be seen, but I don't think that's such a stretch.
Reality: The Jets can't win on the West Coast. They're 0-4 out West, losing to the Chargers, Raiders, 49ers and Seahawks, all of which are sub-.500. Yet, the Jets were the first team to beat the Titans this season! If you ask me, they have been over-reliant on Brett Favre and it's going to cost them a playoff spot more than likely. How Favre made the Pro Bowl I'll never know.
Fantasy: Without Albert Haynesworth, the Steelers offense should do well against the Titans. I'll talk more about Tennessee's defense later, but they were plenty disruptive without 'Big Al' clogging the middle of the line. Roethlisberger has been sacked 13 times in his last three games against playoff-caliber defenses, so the indictment is in on the Steelers offense: They won't go anywhere this postseason if their offensive line can't improve. And it could be a problem heading into 2009.
Reality: Cedric Benson could clean up on the ground and come away with over 100 total yards. How about close to 200 total yards? Anyone who trusted Benson in Week 16 not only deserves to win their league but should also get their guts bronzed. He'll end strong -- the Chiefs limp into Paul Brown Stadium next week.
Strategy Session
Week 17 is here, but my Fantasy league crowned a champion in Week 16. Is my league's Fantasy season over?
It doesn't have to be.
A year ago, Fantasy owners flooded my inbox with ways to keep the Fantasy game going in Week 17, but mostly on a just-for-fun basis. All games are "free-for-alls," which means you don't necessarily play against an opponent but against everyone in the league.
The first way to go is that everyone in the league starts a lineup based on the players their team ended the season with. Now with some teams resting their better players for the playoff run, some lineups won't be at full strength, and lineup choices will be interesting to say the least.
Varieties spawning from that include using only players picked up off of waivers during the season, and if an owner can start more of those players than others, they get that much of an edge in the game. Another version: Your starting lineup isn't set by position but rather other designations (one Pro Bowler, one rookie, one 30-year-old, one 1,000-yard player, etc.).
You could start a whole lineup, or just three or four players. Up to you.
Here's a more involved idea, and this one could be very tricky: Start a new five-week Fantasy season that begins in Week 17 and ends with the Super Bowl. The trick is, you'll have to draft a new team and pick players based on who you think will play the most for the rest of the regular season and postseason. The No. 1 pick might not be Adrian Peterson since he could only be useful in Week 17.
If that's too hardcore for you, then you could just wait a week and form a Playoff Challenge league and pick players from teams that qualify for the playoffs. You might even pick up $5,000 in the process.
There's one note: If your league is on CBSSports.com and you set up to play one of these varieties in Week 17, it will alter your league records. So if that's important to you and your league comrades, you might want to think about blasting back to the "dark age" of Fantasy Football and use a pen, paper and calculator to keep score next week and beyond.
Parting shots
• It's that time of year where I get on my soap box and try to convince the Fantasy universe that playing meaningful games in Week 17 is a complete farce.
Even with several playoff spots up for grabs around the NFL, several teams will either rest players for the postseason or put players on Injured Reserve with nagging injuries. These are not the kind of circumstances I would want to play under.
Peyton Manning, Dominic Rhodes/Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Chris Johnson, LenDale White, Brandon Jacobs, Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker/Mewelde Moore, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are all candidates to play a portion of or be listed as inactive in Week 17 because their postseason-bound teams have nothing to play for. These are quality Fantasy players! Why should my team be penalized because for 16 weeks they were great and in Week 17 they're resting?
I'd love to hear from anyone who insists on playing their Fantasy championships in Week 17. My own rule? I never play in a league that solely depends on Week 17 to crown a winner.
• Speaking of the playoffs, I'd be a loon not to mention how absolutely weird Week 16 wound up being. The Cowboys lose in their stadium swan song to the Ravens. The Buccaneers can't overcome the Chargers at home. The previously impenetrable Eagles shunned by the Jekyll-and-Hyde Redskins. Favre and the Jets snowed out in Seattle. The Broncos can't clinch the division at home against the Bills. The left-for-dead Titans stymie the Steelers. Wind, cold and snow in several stadiums.
Last week I mentioned how Fantasy Football was tough to predict. Try predicting the NFL! Just picking winners is tough. I would have told you that the Broncos would steamroll the Bills, the Eagles would wallop the Redskins and the Cowboys would find a way over the Ravens. And I don't think I was alone in feeling that way. Obviously, it's stunning turns of events like these in Week 16 that keep football so interesting.
• Major, major props to Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz for the job he did with his defense -- and especially his defensive line -- against the Steelers. Could you even tell that Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch weren't playing for Tennessee? Schwartz will be a head coach in the next six weeks.
• I've decided to continue my campaign to help anoint Russ Grimm as the next head coach of the Browns. I'm not a Browns fan, and I don't know Grimm, but I like trying to figure out the best solutions to a team's problems (sorry Detroit, the Lions are beyond repair).
Grimm is a Hall of Famer, has plenty of experience and a solid resume and has been around winning programs in Pittsburgh with Bill Cowher and the rejuvenated Cardinals in Arizona. If a guy could come in and help the Browns improve -- while having inside dirt on the Steelers, Browns and Ravens -- wouldn't that be a dream to all of those people in Cleveland?
Let's move past Cowher09.com and the idea of luring Cowher out of retirement to coach Cleveland. Grimm is the next best thing as far as a respectable coach who knows how to improve a team's morale and environment. If anyone in Cleveland is reading this, let's get the word out.
(Um, assuming Romeo Crennel is relieved of his duties.)
• Finish this sentence: If I have the No. 2 pick in drafts next year and the No. 1 pick is Adrian Peterson, I'm taking ______________. I don't have an answer yet.
• So Hanukkah is here and Christmas and Kwanzaa are around the corner. It's the giving time of year. That said, if we helped you win your league or make the finals or have any measure of success, we'd like to know about it. Put something nice in our stocking.
Naturally, we know we're opening the door for people to gripe about picks that didn't work out as well. You can e-mail us, too. Go ahead, give us our lump of coal. Just remember -- it's the holidays, and Santa's watching ...
Do you have a question for Dave? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll post the best responses. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.
