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Dave Richard

Four Downs: Thrilladelphia!

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Five weeks ago, a snowball had a better chance to survive at the equator than the Eagles did in the NFC playoff race.

But like a 7-6 Fantasy playoff team might do, Philly got hot when it mattered and flew into the postseason.

The Eagles capped off an improbable season, finishing 9-6-1, with a dominating win over the Cowboys in Week 17. Interestingly enough, the majority of the Eagles' Fantasy stars were the ones you wouldn't expect to step up as two backups came up big. Correll Buckhalter scored on a 4-yard pass from Donovan McNabb on a drive after setting up the Eagles' first touchdown with a 59-yard catch-and-run. Brent Celek came up with a touchdown as well and the Eagles defense returned two fumbles for scores. Stalwarts like Brian Westbrook and DeSean Jackson were limited and ultimately benched as the Eagles opted to rest some of their starters once they built a huge lead.

Of course, one beacon remained shining among the Eagles' faithful: McNabb, who threw the two touchdowns and dove for another from a yard out. McNabb totaled 10 touchdowns over the Eagles last five games and is a big reason why they're playing at the Vikings in the wild-card round. Something tells us he'll be around The City of Brotherly Love in 2009.

As for Dallas, they clearly ran into a buzz saw and couldn't get going soon enough. Tony Romo's three turnovers, including the two fumbles that were returned for touchdowns, obviously put the Cowboys in a huge hole. So did going three-and-out in three of their first four drives. If you want some perspective of the Cowboys' most successful play, it came on a 42-yard catch by Terrell Owens from Jason Witten.

Just as the Eagles are brimming with optimism, there are a ton of questions surrounding the Cowboys. Is the coaching staff truly "in place" like owner Jerry Jones says? Was the team correct in giving long-term contracts to Tony Romo, Marion Barber and Roy Williams? Will Owens keep from saying anything or doing anything ridiculous that gets him moved out of Dallas this offseason? The Cowboys say they love drama -- they've got more than enough as they finish 9-7 and out of the playoffs. There is a chance that this offense gets a makeover in the next several months.

First down

Drew Brees fell just short of Dan Marino's passing mark, but still had a fabulous Week 17. (Getty Images)  
Drew Brees fell just short of Dan Marino's passing mark, but still had a fabulous Week 17. (Getty Images)  
Drew Brees came close to etching his name in the annals of NFL history. Kurt Warner proved once more that he's an elite gunslinger.

Both threw four touchdowns in Week 17.

Knowing that the postseason wasn't in the cards for him for the second consecutive year, Brees and the Saints took a pass-first approach, particularly after falling behind the Panthers on Sunday. Attempting 49 passes, Brees managed to dart for 386 yards, a mere 17 yards shy of Dan Marino's single-season passing record. Still, as the second quarterback ever to throw for 5,000 yards, Brees has firmly put his footprint on 2009 Fantasy drafts as the No. 1 quarterback we'll be drafting next summer.

Warner might not be No. 1 overall -- heck, he might not be a Cardinal next year as he's scheduled to be a free agent -- but he ended the regular season with lots of momentum after throwing for 263 yards and his four scores with only one interception. Warner's 4,583 yards this regular season were a career-high and his 30 touchdowns were third-best. Assuming Warner stays with the Cardinals, he's very likable as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback, albeit not first overall like Brees.

Second down

With many Fantasy stars resting because their teams were playoff-bound in Week 17, a lot of surprising performances were turned in.

Matt Schaub had his fourth 300-yard game of the season and also threw two touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers one-upped him with three touchdowns and 308 yards passing, ending a spectacular season for the first-year starter.

Also tossing two scores were Seneca Wallace, Dan Orlovsky, Chad Pennington, JaMarcus Russell and Kyle Orton, who ran for another score. Interestingly enough, all of these passers played on the road.

No one was surprised to see Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams as the top two rushers for Week 17, but Raiders running back Michael Bush exploded for 177 yards (and two touchdowns) to finish third. Bills backup running back Fred Jackson was fifth with 136 yards on the ground. Willie Parker ended the regular season strong with 116 yards on 23 carries vs. the Browns, and Bengals RB Cedric Benson was five yards behind him. Each of them scored a touchdown, as did Packers backup DeShawn Wynn, who rushed for 106 yards -- the exact same total as the guy he's behind on the depth chart, Ryan Grant. Even Edgerrin James got into the act with an even 100 yards on the ground.

Mark Clayton (128 yards) wasn't bad, nor were Lance Moore and Deion Branch, both of whom rebounded from some poor performances to total 91 and 90 yards, respectively, with two touchdowns each.

Of course, as surprising as these performances were the hideous totals from guys people might have been counting on. Matt Cassel, fresh off his snow day performance a week earlier, couldn't solve the painful Buffalo wind and finished with 78 yards, a total lower than Jim Sorgi, David Carr, Matt Leinart and Byron Leftwich turned in. Randy Moss and Wes Welker felt the pain of that one. Tim Hightower only had three carries for 3 yards for the Cardinals, Tyler Thigpen was stymied by the Bengals, and of course anyone with orange paint or a blue star on their helmet didn't exactly blow you away (though T.O. did top 100 yards).

And LaDainian Tomlinson -- you just had to wait 16 games to give your best performance of the season, didn't you?!

Week 17 might be unique because not every team uses its starters for the whole game, but it has its fair share of surprises and disappointments.

Third down

Let the offseason begin!

Following the Browns, 31-0 loss against the Steelers, reports began surfacing that head coach Romeo Crennel and GM Phil Savage were fired.

Alternatively, the 49ers announced after the game that Mike Singletary will be their head coach in 2009, as in he's no longer the interim head coach. However, there could be a shift in their offense as coordinator Mike Martz isn't a lock to return to the team.

Larry Johnson figures that his time in Kansas City is up. (Getty Images)  
Larry Johnson figures that his time in Kansas City is up. (Getty Images)  
One of the keys to winning in Fantasy Football is knowing as much as possible about each NFL club, with the philosophies of the head coach and offensive coordinator playing big roles. Several teams are expected to find new coaches this offseason, and that in turn could lead to players being shuffled in and out of town. The 49ers are a great example -- when Martz became their new offensive coordinator last year, players like Isaac Bruce and J.T. O'Sullivan joined the team, along with DeShaun Foster and Bryant Johnson, who didn't have experience in Martz's system but adjusted accordingly.

Players will also be on the move. Speculation on Brett Favre's future has begun, and Larry Johnson immediately started making waves after the Chiefs' season-ending loss that he needs to move on. Anquan Boldin, Brandon Jacobs, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson, Antonio Bryant, Cedric Benson, Torry Holt, Matt Cassel and perhaps even Terrell Owens could be on the move.

The coaching season is in January while the free-agent season starts up in March. By April, we'll be talking NFL draft, with the annual selection process happening late in the month. By then, we'll be just a couple of months away from training camp starting up.

Naturally, I would be remiss not to mention that we here at CBSSports.com follow the football seasons year-round and will always have the latest news and analysis on all happenings around the NFL. In the coming weeks you'll see complete rank lists for 2009 drafts along with projections later on down the line, and they'll be changing all the time.

Who said the Fantasy season has to end?

Fourth down

Just some statements for you to soak in. Just imagine reading these statements back in August before the season started.

The Ravens will play at the Dolphins in the playoffs.

The Falcons will play at the Cardinals in the playoffs.

The Colts will make the playoffs, but as a wild-card team.

The playoffs will not include the Patriots, Cowboys, Jaguars, Seahawks or Brett Favre.

Adrian Peterson won the rushing title with 1,760 yards. Michael Turner finished second with 1,699 rush yards. DeAngelo Williams was third with 1,515 yards. LaDainian Tomlinson: Nowhere close.

Joseph Addai: 544 rushing yards. Cedric Benson: 747 rushing yards.

Andre Johnson won the receiving title with 1,575 receiving yards. Roddy White finished third with 1,382 yards. Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh totaled 1,344 yards.

Drew Brees threw for 5,069 yards. Tom Brady threw for 76 yards.

And you thought you had a wild 2008 season!

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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