Your Fantasy season is about to begin.
I'm not talking about the CBSSports.com Playoff Challenge (free to play; do well and win $5,000!). And I'm not referring to your 2008 team.
I'm talking 2009, baby!
Won your league this season? Hey, that's great -- enjoy the fruits of your labor. But guess what? You're 0-0 now, just like the rest of us. Just like the guys in my 14-team league that went 0-13 (they drafted Tom Brady and Laurence Maroney, among others).
Here's the cold, hard truth: Someone in your league is already looking ahead. That person is already printing out depth charts and getting his or her spreadsheets ready to follow offseason movement. In that person's mind, they're already winning. They're already ahead of you and everyone else who is still too busy living in 2008, even if the calendar says it's still 2008.
And that person's timing will be phenomenal. That's because we are on the cusp of what I believe will be the busiest offseason ever in the history of the NFL. Several major factors will shape the 2009 season starting ... well, now.
Why so busy? Let's start with the one area that's affecting everybody around the world: The economy. The NFL has already proven to not be recession proof as they've cut staff, and teams have followed suit by reducing payroll. Moreover, in an effort to be consumer-friendly, most NFL teams have either frozen ticket prices for 2009 or actually lowered them. Only the clubs that really beat expectations can justify a price hike (the Falcons are an example).
That's compounded by the fact that the NFL's cast of owners have been in proverbial limbo with the NFL Players Association over the current labor deal. The 2009 season will go off without a hitch, but without an agreement by both sides over what's fair and not fair, we'll see an uncapped year in 2010 and a lockout in 2011.
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It's unlikely we'll see Marc Bulger and Torry Holt talking at Rams camp in 2009.
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What does all this mean? Simple: Team owners are clutching their dollar bills like
Wes Welker clutches the pigskin on a slant-in route. We're about to see some thrifty spending. Teams that are already strapped financially (the Buffalos, Cincinnatis and Jacksonvilles of the NFL) won't spend big on free agents. Some teams that have money won't be willing to let go of it so easily, whether it's because of the economy or because they want to have as much as possible to compete in the uncapped year.
And it's not only about spending, but also reducing. According to my research, 52 players will have a contract value of $5 million or more for 2009, and a lot of the names on the list are veterans over the age of 30 and/or players who grossly underperformed. I can't imagine the likes of Fred Taylor, Laveranues Coles, Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Brett Favre and Alex Smith staying with their current clubs under their current contractual terms.
But wait, there's more! It's pretty clear that NFL teams have finally developed a backbone when it comes to players who openly complain about their situations and/or get in trouble with the law. "Character issues" are issues NFL clubs want nothing to do with and will protect themselves from. So rascals like Larry Johnson and Chad Johnson could be packing their suitcases this offseason.
And there's even more! The process of changing coaching staffs has begun (see? NFL teams are being proactive -- why aren't you?!). NFL owners will see what happened with the Falcons, Dolphins and Ravens -- all playoff qualifiers with first-year coaches -- and be willing to do the same if they don't like the direction their club is headed. The fear of rebuilding over a two- or three-year period has been quelled and now the expectations are high. With that process comes philosophical changes and roster turnover. Teams like the Jets, Lions and Browns will surely look different come next summer.
Oh, and then there's the 2009 NFL Draft, which will surely have a glut of underclassmen declaring so they can shoot for a high draft pick and receive an insane guaranteed salary before that gets renegotiated in the new labor deal.
The trickle-down effect for Fantasy owners is that we're going to see a lot of players change jersey colors. While the 2009 free agency class isn't really that impressive (Brandon Jacobs, Matt Cassel and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are the highlights -- and they all will likely receive the franchise tag), it will be the surprise cuts and trades that will re-shape the league's landscape.
How you as a Fantasy owner want to approach it is up to you. You could sit on your duff all offseason and pick up a magazine on your way to your draft and be completely unprepared for what's in store. Or, you could get on the ball and start prepping for 2009.
Like Ferris Bueller said, Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it. I doubt Bueller was the Fantasy Football-playing type (but you KNOW Cameron was knee-deep into it), but his overall philosophy is right on the money. If you ignore the next several months, you're going to be behind in winning your league next year.
Fantasy & Reality
Observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) based on what's on the radar of Fantasy owners heading into the offseason.
Fantasy: Tom Brady is a safe No. 1 Fantasy QB for 2009. This is going to be a top topic this offseason as Fantasy owners clamor to bank on Brady with a draft pick somewhere in Round 2 next summer. A report surfaced last night saying that Brady was behind on his recovery and could be forced into another surgery that could jeopardize his '09 season. Another report quelled the first report. With the Patriots unlikely to say a word about Brady's progress, his Fantasy status will hinge on how New England handles free-agent QB Matt Cassel this offseason. As for Brady, I wouldn't believe anything until you see him practice and take some reps in the preseason.
Reality: 2008 will be remembered as The Year of the Toe. What do LaDainian Tomlinson, Marion Barber, Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart and Felix Jones have in common? They were all limited or incapacitated because of a toe injury. More proof that the overall health of a running back is so important. Interestingly enough, only one notable Fantasy running back, Broncos rookie Ryan Torain, suffered a torn ACL this season.
Fantasy: The huge impact rookies made in 2008 will make rookies more valuable in 2009 drafts. While no one is sure of who will be in the NFL draft, we are sure that the talent in 2008 was a special thing, and that the play of great rookie quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends this season have no impact on what will happen going forward, with one caveat: Clubs will hold their rookies to higher expectations, the impact of which will accelerate the success or failure of most of these youngsters.
Reality: The NFL is still a passing league. We know that running backs will dominate the first round in 2009 drafts, and that's fine. But we're still in the midst of a passing renaissance across the NFL. While there was one fewer 4,000-yard passer this year from last year, we had our first 5,000-yard passer since Dan Marino in Drew Brees, and two more 4,500-yard passers. Donovan McNabb was 84 yards shy of 4,000 and expected 4,000-yard gunslinger Tony Romo missed three games with an injury or else he would have been in the money. And in a season littered with great rushing performances, the NFL actually sported one fewer 1,000-yard rusher than it did a year ago -- only 16 players made it over the K mark.
Parting shots
• I'm a fixer. I don't like to complain about problems unless I have a solution. And my pipe dream is to be an NFL GM someday (an unlikely opportunity considering I have exactly zero days under my belt as a paid personnel evaluator for an NFL team). But this is my column and darn it, I like to fix things.
So if I were the GM of one of the teams that failed this season, here would be my game plan ...
Cleveland: I've made this clear before: Russ Grimm would be my head coach. He's got experience, he's got first-hand knowledge of how to run a locker room the right way based on his days with Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh, and he's been on a coaching staff, his current one with the Cardinals, that's gone from worst to first. The Browns are a 3-4 team stuck in the AFC North, so getting a Cowher/Ken Whisenhunt disciple to install a new culture would be the way to go. Plus, he'd definitely be an upgrade when game planning for those six Steelers, Bengals and Ravens games a year.
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Who gets to coach this Motown monster in 2009? You'll have to pay attention.
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Detroit: I thought a lot about Detroit, and I think their best move is to shake things up. Currently, all four teams in the NFC North play a Cover-2, 4-3 defense. I want a coach who will run a 3-4 defense and put a curveball into division play. I also want a coach with experience rather than a fresh face or an experienced veteran assistant with no head-coaching work. I'd pay Brian Billick to be the head coach and Mike Nolan to be the defensive coordinator. True, they are re-treads, but both have a glut of experience and in the case of Billick, some familiarity with the NFC North dating back to his days as the Vikings offensive coordinator. Plus, Billick would foam at the mouth at the idea of utilizing
Calvin Johnson, a receiver he never had in Baltimore.
Kansas City: I am assuming Herman Edwards will get the shoe, though I don't necessarily believe he deserves it. The Chiefs offense is pretty good and has lots of upside; it's the defense that needs loads of work. So if Edwards is gone, I go after either Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo or Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Schwartz is the better man for the job as they're a couple of years away and likely want someone with Jeff Fisher's timing, patience and hang-with-em to build a foundation for their club. I'd look to an assistant off of one of the explosive offenses around the league to coach up the offense.
New York Jets: I wouldn't play the Patriots Card and go after Josh McDaniels. The Jets can't take a quiet approach and find a young candidate, something they did three years ago with Eric Mangini. And they have pieces in place to make a playoff run, and I am not talking about Brett Favre. What they need is a meticulous game preparer and motivator, and someone unafraid of dealing with the media. While I'm sure they will try to be the ones to get Bill Cowher out of retirement, and maybe make a push for Mike Holmgren, their best option after that is Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan. He's a no-nonsense, aggressive 3-4 boss who has a wealth of experience and might even be able to sway some of his free-agent Ravens to come with him to New York (Ray Lewis, Bart Scott).
Oakland: OK, who would want this job? Anyone who takes this lectern would have to deal with Al Davis on a daily basis, and that has proven to be a tough task. Jim Fassel says he'd like to coach the Raiders, but he's my last-ditch option. I'd rather consider Dolphins quarterbacks coach David Lee (former Arkansas offensive assistant, has experience with Darren McFadden) or ex-Rams coach Scott Linehan first, but ultimately the best guy they have is already there: Rob Ryan, the defensive coordinator. He'll listen to Al and has the respect of many players already. Give him the reins of the defense and the press conferences, give Tom Cable back the offensive line job and let Greg Knapp keep up the offensive continuity or hand it over to James Lofton.
St. Louis: This is a team in need of a rebuilder, and it's in line to follow the model of the Falcons from a year ago. Experience is a must, as is patience since there aren't many key pieces in place. This is the perfect landing spot for Steve Spagnuolo, defensive coordinator of the Giants. The Rams should offer him a bunch of cash, autonomy on his coaching staff, and guarantee him at least three years to work his magic. Spags will go from the rough-and-tumble NFC East to the haphazard NFC West, and can not only develop Chris Long to be the next Justin Tuck but also build his offense around Steven Jackson based on the Giants' run-wielding ways this season.
I'd love to hear from fans of these teams to share their thoughts on what I would do. If you disagree, that's fine, HOWEVER, you must offer a suggestion if you're going to call me nuts/crazy/stupid/loony/nurazupidoony. Email me at dmfantasyfootbal@cbs.com.
• I just cannot be convinced that Week 17 should be the final week of a Fantasy league's season. I can't. If I was lucky enough to have Peyton Manning, Chris Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, Larry Fitzgerald, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Dallas Clark and the Titans DST making up my starting lineup this season, I wouldn't have been able to contend for my league's title in Week 17. I realize that it's the last week of football and that we shouldn't let a precious week go to waste, but as I outlined last week, there are better ways to go about having fun in Week 17 without having a meaningful Fantasy game.
• When we go back and watch the last episodes of The Sopranos, what will we remember when Tony recognizes Eric Mangini, says "I should go say hello" and gets up? What do you think he'd say to Mangenius today?
• In a sick, twisted way, I like the offseason just a bit more than the regular season. I'm one of these guys who watches the NFL news like a hawk every day, even when I'm on vacation in the dead of May. Hell, I wrote a column the day after my daughter was born last year. I guess I'm an addict. But I digress ...
Anyway, I think of the offseason as a completely unorganized and detached puzzle. Pieces everywhere, out of order and turned upside-down. The next eight months involves turning these pieces over and putting them where they belong. A lot of the pieces change along the way, too, making the puzzle even tougher to decode.
But when the puzzle starts to come together, you learn and can pass judgment on what's going to happen over the course of a season. Then when the season ends, the puzzle goes back to square one and no two pieces are connected.
It's that time of year. The puzzle is disconnected. It's up to us to start piecing it together, day by day, player by player, all in the name of our fantastic Fantasy obsession.
Dave is ready for the offseason. Are you? Drop a line with your thoughts and Fantasy questions at dmfantasyfootbal@cbs.com , and please put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject line. Don't forget to put your name and hometown in the e-mail as well.
