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Jamey Eisenberg

Faceoffs: Don't bother with Brady in '09?

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Editor's note: Senior Fantasy Writers Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg start their offseason of debating with a few topics that might interest Fantasy owners are you start looking ahead to the offseason.

Should owners take a chance on Tom Brady in 2009?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard Not only will it be easier to pass on Tom Brady next year compared to last year, but we have no guarantee that the guy will be ready to roll next July. A report came out earlier this week suggesting that Brady was behind in his rehab from a torn ACL and MCL and that he was a candidate to have even more surgery as he had infections from his initial procedure. If that proves to be a correct report, then Brady's status for 2009 will be up in the air. Even if he doesn't miss more time, I'm worried that Brady will take another big hit to his knee (you know teams will aim for it) and be sidelined all over again. Plus, there are so many more valuable Fantasy quarterbacks available in 2009 compared to 2008 that passing on Brady won't result in a big dropoff. I'd be nervous to make him my No. 1 without a very good No. 2. Jamey Eisenberg I'm going on the assumption that Brady will be ready for the season opener. Not the preseason, not even training camp, but the first game. That's all that matters. There's still plenty of time for his knee to heal, even with another surgery. Let's remember, Philip Rivers (in the 2007 playoffs) and Carson Palmer (in the 2005 playoffs) each suffered a torn ACL in January and returned the following season without missing any time. Rivers set all sorts of career highs and finished as the No. 2 Fantasy quarterback in 2008, and Palmer also finished No. 2 in 2006. Donovan McNabb also returned in 2007 following a torn ACL the previous year and finished as the No. 11 Fantasy quarterback. I'll take Brady at less than 100 percent with Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Co. over most of the quarterbacks in the league. He will return as a No. 1 Fantasy option.
Will LaDainian Tomlinson be a first round pick in 2009?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard You can point to how well he did down the stretch of the 2008 season (it wasn't really that good, except for Week 17), but there's no denying that Tomlinson wasn't the same this year compared to the past. And after this season ends, he'll have finished eight full years with 2,500 carries. Historically, that's when a running back starts to break down. Here's another red flag: L.T. has had three injuries in the last 12 months (sprained knee, sprained toe, sore groin) and is no spring chicken. With so many hot rookies emerging in '08, Tomlinson is an easy pass in Round 1. Jamey Eisenberg I know all the red flags. He'll be 30, he has eight full seasons in the league and he's coming off the lowest rushing total of his career. Those are all realistic concerns. He's not the No. 1 overall pick anymore, but he's still a first-round selection. Tomlinson can still gain 1,200 total yards and score at least 10 touchdowns. That makes him a top running back in all formats, and you know he will still be involved in the passing game. The Chargers still play in a weak division and should improve the offensive line/fullback situation. I give Tomlinson one more year of above average production before you start to avoid him.
The No. 2 receiver in 2009 Fantasy drafts will be ...?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard It's a close call, but Larry Fitzgerald is simply the safest option -- especially if Kurt Warner is back in Arizona. Fitzgerald is as polished as they get -- an impeccable route runner with hands of glue. Combine that with his size and speed, and you've got a tremendous receiver. The Cardinals may address their running game next year, and Anquan Boldin might be on the move, but if I'm looking for a No. 1 receiver, I want the safest bet out there, and Fitzy is definitely it. Even if Matt Leinart winds up under center, Fitzgerald will be a fantastic No. 1 option worth owning. Jamey Eisenberg When I originally wrote about receivers in 2009 I had Fitzgerald at No. 2 behind Andre Johnson with Randy Moss third and Calvin Johnson fourth. But I've changed my mind and would take Calvin Johnson second. He's going into his third year, so he should improve. He will get a better quarterback, which will help. And his physical tools will continue to develop, and those are already impressive with his speed, size and catching ability. You can't go wrong between Johnson and Fitzgerald, but Johnson showed in 2008 that he can thrive with the three-headed monster of Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky and Daunte Culpepper. Just imagine how good Johnson will be once he gets a new quarterback. Can I start the Matt Cassel to Detroit rumor now?
Which 2008 dud rookie will be a stud in 2009?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard I'm banking on the Ravens kicking Willis McGahee to the curb and going with the versatile Ray Rice and the physical LeRon McClain as a 1-2 rushing tandem in 2009. It only makes sense -- both will come cheap and offer a powerful combination much like Chris Johnson and LenDale White in Tennessee. Rice didn't work a ton in his first year, but in four starts he totaled 337 yards, which isn't so bad. You'll be drafting him with a middle-round pick, but he'll over-deliver as part of a very talented Ravens offense. Jamey Eisenberg The Steelers drafted Rashard Mendenhall in 2008 because they know Willie Parker is not a good short-yardage back, and he proved that this season. Parker also showed an inability to stay healthy by missing five games, and the Steelers will count on Mendenhall to fill the void in 2009. It will likely remain a tandem, but Mendenhall will be worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy option. You can think of him in the mold of Earnest Graham from 2007 when Graham came on late in the year and helped Fantasy owners down the stretch. Mendenhall could be a candidate for double digits in touchdowns in this offense.
Who will be next year's DeAngelo Williams?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard In a year where so many rookie running backs shined, Kevin Smith got lost in the shuffle. He had a surprisingly strong year, gaining 976 rush yards, 286 receiving yards on 39 catches and finding the end zone eight times. Here's the best part: Smith had six games this year with 10 rushes or less, meaning that the opportunity for bigger production was left on the table. A guy with over 1,200 total yards and eight touchdowns slipping through the cracks? It's going to happen, and the end result will see Smith do better next year, just like the Lions. Jamey Eisenberg Pierre Thomas had a breakthrough year in 2008 with 625 rushing yards and nine touchdowns and 31 catches for 284 yards and three touchdowns. He is ready to become a star and plays in the right offense to do it. The only downside for Thomas is sharing time with Reggie Bush, but Bush is almost more of a receiver than a running back. Thomas will get the majority of carries and has the talent to become an elite Fantasy option. And since Bush is injury prone, don't be surprised when Thomas gets several starts again in 2009. He will finish as a top 10 Fantasy running back next year.

Do you agree with Dave or Jamey? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll post the best responses. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Faceoff in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Matt Schaub
Schaub doing well in rehab
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
1:03 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Tuesday that Texans QB Matt Schaub, who finished the season on injured reserve following foot surgery, is doing well and his rehab is ahead of schedule. The report says Schaub works out almost every day.
Analysis: This is great news, and we expect Schaub to return at 100 percent in 2012. Continue to monitor what happens with Schaub, but he should be considered a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy QB heading into the season. He is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues on Draft Day.

Lofa Tatupu
Tatupu visits Saints
Lofa Tatupu, LB, SEA
2:36 PM
News: Free agent LB Lofau Tatupu visited with the Saints on Monday, according to NFL.com. The 29-year-old Tatupu sat out the 2011 season. The former Pro Bowl MLB was asked to take a pay cut by the Seahawks after the lockout ended last summer, and subsequently asked for his release. Tatupu was scheduled to visit with the Raiders and Redskins in August, but didn't sign with anyone and fell off the radar for the remainder of the year while he reportedly dealt with a knee injury. Tatupu was scheduled to earn more than $4 million in 2011 before his release by Seattle. The six-year veteran was a second-round pick and has played in three Pro Bowls. But he also started to wear down from 2008-2010, including finishing 2009 on injured reserve with a knee injury. He did start all 16 games in 2010, but had surgery on both knees during the offseason.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Tatupu and where he plays in 2012. When healthy and active he could be a No. 3 Fantasy LB worth a late-round pick in IDP leagues.

Ravens
Flacco, Ravens to work on deal
Ravens, TQB BAL,
12:47 PM
News: The NFL Network reports that the Ravens are set to open contract extension talks with QB Joe Flacco's agent at the NFL Combine next week. The report says both sides aim for a long-term deal. Flacco is entering a contract year in 2012, and Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti recently said Flacco would be the team's starting quarterback for years to come.
Analysis: Flacco's won a lot of games for the Ravens but hasn't taken the next step statistically, even when the team added Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. Flacco has had between 3,610 and 3,622 passing yards and between 20 and 25 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons. But this year his completion percentage and yards per attempt dropped like a rock while his pass attempts hit a career high (542, breaking the previous mark of 499). Flacco fits the bill as a great No. 2 Fantasy QB; though he's finally outfitted with a quality receiving corps, he simply doesn't invoke much confidence as a starting option. Look for him late in drafts.

Jahvid Best
Best 'on pace' for offseason work
Jahvid Best, RB, DET
12:43 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems even though team president Tom Lewand is optimistic. Lewand said Best is "on pace" to be ready for offseason workouts, and he is looking forward to seeing Best and Mikel Leshoure play together. "Jahvid is a special player and he'll be even more dynamic when he can ... share the load with a guy like Mikel in the backfield."
Analysis: We hope Best can return at 100 percent, but he will likely be used as a change of pace rusher and a third-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Best, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick in standard leagues and a mid-round selection in PPR formats since he will likely be used in tandem with Leshoure and possibly Kevin Smith if he returns as a free agent.

Mikel Leshoure
Leshoure's recovery going well
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
12:40 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Mikel Leshoure, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the second week of training camp last year, is close to making a full recovery. At the Lions’ request, Leshoure just moved the final stages of his rehab back to Detroit from Arizona. He’s doing resistance work and light running and is expected to join OTA workouts at some point this offseason. Leshoure looked like he was going to be a key part of the Lions offense when injury struck last August, and the team is anxious to get a read on him this spring. RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems, and even if Best returns it’s clear he’s not an every-down back.
Analysis: Leshoure should be considered a great sleeper heading into 2012, and he is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy RB as long as he's healthy. He has tremendous upside, and he could be a great weapon for the Lions, especially with Best struggling as an every-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Leshoure, but he is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in 2012.

Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

 
 
 
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