Beware of drafting Super Bowl losers

Senior Fantasy Writer

Jan. 29, 2009

Fantasy owners need to root for the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII. It's the best thing for the 2009 season.

Losing in the Super Bowl has meant bad things for NFL teams the following year. Usually it's because the superstars have struggled or suffered a serious injury. And it's been going on for years.

The Cardinals have better Fantasy options than the Steelers, and more changes would happen in Arizona than Pittsburgh if the Cardinals lose. So Fantasy owners should put away the Terrible Towel and root for Rod Tidwell's favorite team. Watch Jerry Maguire for inspiration because it's better for Fantasy leagues if the Cardinals win.

The last thing you want to see is Kurt Warner and/or Anquan Boldin leave Arizona or Larry Fitzgerald get hurt. Things will remain status quo in Pittsburgh with Ben Roethlisberger and Co., win or lose, but the loser of this game could be in trouble.

Just look at New England in 2008. Tom Brady was lost for the year in Week 1 with a torn ACL, and his future is now in doubt. Laurence Maroney was exposed as a bust, and all the Patriots stars saw their stats go down as they missed the playoffs despite an 11-5 finish.


Sure, it's a coincidence, but the Pats lost last February and Brady went down in the next game. (US Presswire)

In looking at the Super Bowl runner-up for every year since 2000, only the Seahawks made the playoffs after losing the Super Bowl in 2005. All the other teams failed to make the postseason for one reason or another.

You can make the argument about tougher schedule, longer season with wear and tear on players or even luck running out, but injuries have been the biggest reason why the Super Bowl loser has suffered a season-long hangover. Brady had the most significant injury, but he's not alone.

In 2002, the Rams missed the playoffs after losing to the Patriots in the Super Bowl in 2001, with quarterback Kurt Warner (broken pinkie) missing most of the season. In 2003, the Raiders missed the playoffs after losing to the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl in 2002, with quarterback Rich Gannon (neck) missing most of the year.

The Panther lost wide receiver Steve Smith (broken leg) for all but one game in 2004 after losing in the Super Bowl to New England in 2003. And the Eagles were without quarterback Donovan McNabb (hernia) and wide receiver Terrell Owens (suspended by the team) for the majority of the 2005 season after losing to the Patriots in the Super Bowl in 2004.

The Seahawks, even though they made the playoffs, still had to deal with injuries to running back Shaun Alexander (foot) and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (knee) in 2006 after losing in the Super Bowl to Pittsburgh. And in 2007, the Bears had season-ending injuries to quarterback Rex Grossman (knee) and running back Cedric Benson (knee) after losing in the Super Bowl to Indianapolis in 2006.

The Super Bowl winner has also been affected -- just ask Plaxico Burress. The Steelers also had Roethlisberger deal with a motorcycle accident and an appendectomy, which led to a poor season in 2006 after winning the title against Seattle. But the losers have suffered the worst fate.

So what does this mean for your Fantasy leagues in 2009 when it comes to the Cardinals and Steelers? You're still going to draft Warner, Boldin and Fitzgerald, no matter where any of them play next season. The same goes for Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes.

But better things would happen if Arizona wins. Warner would be re-signed as a free agent, and Boldin could get a new contract to stay. Along with Fitzgerald, one of the best passing attacks would remain intact. You'd still have an inconsistent running game with Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower, but we're really concerned with the air attack here.

The result wouldn't change much in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger remains a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. Ward and Holmes are starting Fantasy receivers but not impact players. And Parker is still a No. 2 running back at best, especially with Rashard Mendenhall coming back this year.

Just be careful when it comes to the Super Bowl runner-up. They have not been good the following season, and you don't want your Fantasy team to suffer because of a fluke injury or bad luck.

Below is a look at key Fantasy contributors from the Super Bowl runner-ups since 2000. Listed is the year they made the Super Bowl and their stats the following season.

2007

Patriots (lost to the Giants 17-14 in XLII)
Tom Brady
2007: 4,806 passing yards, 50 touchdowns, eight interceptions
2008: 76 passing yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions

Laurence Maroney
2007: 835 rushing yards, six touchdowns; four catches, 116 receiving yards
2008: 93 rushing yards, no touchdowns; no catches

Randy Moss
2007: 98 catches, 1,493 receiving yards, 23 touchdowns
2008: 69 catches, 1,008 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns

Wes Welker
2007: 112 catches, 1,175 receiving yards, eight touchdowns
2008: 111 catches, 1,165 receiving yards, three touchdowns

Benjamin Watson
2007: 36 catches, 389 receiving yards, six touchdowns
2008: 22 catches, 209 receiving yards, two touchdowns

2006

Bears (lost to the Colts 29-17 in XLI)
Rex Grossman
2006: 3,193 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 20 interceptions
2007: 1,411 passing yards, four touchdowns, seven interceptions

Thomas Jones
2006: 1,210 rushing yards, six touchdowns; 36 catches, 154 receiving yards
2007*: 1,119 rushing yards, one touchdown; 28 catches, 217 receiving yards, one touchdown

Cedric Benson
2006: 647 rushing yards, six touchdowns; eight catches, 54 receiving yards
2007: 674 rushing yards, four touchdowns; 17 catches, 123 receiving yards

Bernard Berrian
2006: 51 catches, 775 receiving yards, six touchdowns
2007: 70 catches, 948 receiving yards, five touchdowns

Muhsin Muhammad
2006: 60 catches, 863 receiving yards, five touchdowns
2007: 40 catches, 570 receiving yards, three touchdowns

Desmond Clark
2006: 45 catches, 626 receiving yards, six touchdowns
2007: 44 catches, 545 receiving yards, four touchdowns

*spent 2007 with the New York Jets

2005

Seahawks (lost to the Steelers 21-10 in XL)
Matt Hasselbeck
2005: 3,459 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, nine interceptions
2006: 2,442 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 15 interceptions

Shaun Alexander
2005: 1,880 rushing yards, 27 touchdowns; 15 catches, 78 receiving yards, one touchdown
2006: 896 rushing yards, seven touchdowns; no catches

Darrell Jackson
2005: 38 catches, 482 receiving yards, three touchdowns
2006: 63 catches, 956 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns

Joe Jurevicius
2005: 55 catches, 694 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns
2006*: 40 catches, 495 receiving yards, three touchdowns

Bobby Engram
2005: 67 catches, 778 receiving yards, three touchdowns
2006: 24 catches, 290 receiving yards, one touchdown

Jerramy Stevens
2005: 45 catches, 554 receiving yards, five touchdowns
2006: 22 catches, 231 receiving yards, four touchdowns

*spent 2006 with the Browns

2004

Eagles (lost to the Patriots 24-21 in XXXIX)
Donovan McNabb
2004: 3,875 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, eight interceptions
2005: 2,507 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, nine interceptions

Brian Westbrook
2004: 812 rushing yards, three touchdowns; 73 catches, 703 receiving yards, six touchdowns
2005: 617 rushing yards, three touchdowns; 61 catches, 616 receiving yards, four touchdowns

Terrell Owens
2004: 77 catches, 1,200 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns
2005: 47 catches, 763 receiving yards, six touchdowns

Todd Pinkston
2004: 36 catches, 676 receiving yards, one touchdown
2005: Did Not Play

L.J. Smith
2004: 34 catches, 377 receiving yards, five touchdowns
2005: 61 catches, 682 receiving yards, three touchdowns

2003

Panthers (lost to the Patriots 32-29 in XXXVIII)
Jake Delhomme
2003: 3,219 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 16 interceptions
2004: 3,886 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, 15 interceptions

Stephen Davis
2003: 1,444 rushing yards, eight touchdowns; 14 catches, 159 receiving yards
2004: 92 rushing yards; two catches, 32 receiving yards

DeShaun Foster
2003: 429 rushing yards; 26 catches, 207 receiving yards, two touchdowns
2004: 255 rushing yards, two touchdowns; nine catches, 76 receiving yards

Steve Smith
2003: 88 catches, 1,110 receiving yards, seven touchdowns
2004: six catches, 60 receiving yards

Muhsin Muhammad
2003: 54 catches, 837 receiving yards, three touchdowns
2004: 93 catches, 1,405 receiving yards, 16 touchdowns

2002

Raiders (lost to the Buccaneers 48-21 in XXXVII)
Rich Gannon
2002: 4,689 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
2003: 1,274 passing yards, six touchdowns, four interceptions

Charlie Garner
2002: 962 rushing yards, seven touchdowns; 91 catches, 941 receiving yards, four touchdowns
2003: 553 rushing yards, three touchdowns; 48 catches, 386 receiving yards, one touchdown

Zack Crockett
2002: 118 rushing yards, eight touchdowns
2003: 145 rushing yards, seven touchdowns

Jerry Rice
2002: 92 catches, 1,211 receiving yards, seven touchdowns
2003: 63 catches, 869 receiving yards, two touchdowns

Tim Brown
2002: 81 catches, 930 receiving yards, two touchdowns
2003: 52 catches, 567 receiving yards, two touchdowns

Jerry Porter
2002: 51 catches, 688 receiving yards, nine touchdowns
2003: 28 catches, 361 receiving yards, one touchdown

2001

Rams (lost to the Patriots 20-17 in XXXVI)
Kurt Warner
2001: 4,830 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, 22 interceptions
2002: 1,431 passing yards, three touchdowns, 11 interceptions

Marshall Faulk
2001: 1,382 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns; 83 catches, 765 receiving yards, nine touchdowns
2002: 953 rushing yards, eight touchdowns; 80 catches, 537 receiving yards, two touchdowns

Torry Holt
2001: 81 catches, 1,363 receiving yards, seven touchdowns
2002: 91 catches, 1,302 receiving yards, four touchdowns

Isaac Bruce
2001: 64 catches, 1,106 receiving yards, six touchdowns
2002: 79 catches, 1,075 receiving yards, seven touchdowns

Ricky Proehl
2001: 40 catches, 563 receiving yards, five touchdowns
2002: 43 catches, 466 receiving yards, four touchdowns

2000

Giants (lost to the Ravens 34-7 in XXXV)
Kerry Collins
2000: 3,610 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions
2001: 3,764 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 16 interceptions

Tiki Barber
2000: 1,006, eight touchdowns; 70 catches, 719 receiving yards, one touchdown
2001: 865 rushing yards, four touchdowns; 72 catches, 577 receiving yards

Ron Dayne
2000: 770 rushing yards, five touchdowns
2001: 690 rushing yards, seven touchdowns

Ike Hilliard
2000: 55 catches, 787 receiving yards, eight touchdowns
2001: 52 catches, 659 receiving yards, six touchdowns

Amani Toomer
2000: 78 catches, 1,094 receiving yards, seven touchdowns
2001: 72 catches, 1,054 receiving yards, five touchdowns

Do you have a question or comment for Jamey? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll post the best responses. Be sure to put Attn: Super Bowl losers in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

Titans sign Blidi Wreh-Wilson
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

(4:53 pm ET) The Titans agreed to terms with rookie cornerback Blidi Wreh-Wilson on Wednesday.

The Tennessean reports that Wreh-Wilson, a third-round pick, reached a four-year deal with salaries of $405,000 in 2013, $495,000 in 2014, $585,000 in 2015 and $675,000 in 2016.

Only first-round pick Chance Warmack has yet to agree to terms.

Reggie Bush could see some punt returns
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

(4:53 pm ET) Lions running back Reggie Bush could add punt return duties to his workload this year. Special-teams coach John Bonamego believes Bush could be a "situational" punt return man.

"Reggie will have a role," Bonamego told the official team website. "Reggie (can return punts) and is willing to do it. That's more situational -- we need one, let's put him back there and let's see if he can make something happen. I had him his first two years in the league in New Orleans and that was the way he was utilized in that role. So, he's back there catching them in practice."

Titans sign Barry Richardson
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

(4:48 pm ET) The Titans agreed to terms with veteran offensive tackle Barry Richardson on Wednesday.

The Tennessean reports he'll add depth to the offensive line. Richardson started all 16 games for the Rams last season.

How often did Vernon Davis line up as a receiver?
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

(4:47 pm ET) Earlier this week the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat reported that Vernon Davis worked at receiver during the team's recent minicamp, not at the traditional tight end spot he's been accustomed to. So I thought I'd get an idea of just how often Davis lined up off the line of scrimmage last year.

With a huge hat tip to ProFootballFocus.com founder Neil Hornsby we now know that Davis lined up as a tight end, be it in a basic set or as part of a two-tight end formation, on 798 plays. He lined up in the slot or out wide like a receiver 268 plays. And he lined up as a fullback 16 plays. He also sparingly lined up as a tackle, doing so 16 times. Point is that he lined up in a non-traditional spot roughly 25 percent of the time last year. Seeing that bump up to, say, 75 percent of the time this year seems off. But that's small potatoes all things considered -- his being on the field 95-plus percent of the time combined with an expected bump in targets is what Fantasy owners need for him to be an asset. That's why he's still a consensus Top 7 tight end among our Fantasy rankings and could inch his way into the Top 5 before too long.

Latest update on Aaron Hernandez
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

(2:07 pm ET) Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez has not yet been ruled out as a suspect in the homicide investigation involving a semi-pro football player who was "an associate" of his, a source told CBS Boston on Wednesday. Hernandez is also not cooperating with police according to the report.

There is, however, a conflicting report from SI.com that says Hernandez is not believed to be a murder suspect.

Also revealed Wednesday: Hernandez is being sued by a man who claimed Hernandez shot him in the face. The lawsuit, reported by TMZ, was filed on June 13, five days before investigators checked into Hernandez's house in connection with the homicide. The case was originally dismissed because of a paperwork error that has since been rectified.

Report: J.D. Walton's season in doubt
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

(1:50 pm ET) Broncos center J.D. Walton had another surgery on his ankle this week and is now expected to miss the 2013 season, according to the Denver Post. Walton missed much of the 2012 season with a broken ankle. The team had hoped he'd play in the second half of the upcoming year.

Hakeem Nicks noncommittal on future with Giants
by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

(1:41 pm ET) Giants receiver Hakeem Nicks said he's happy to be a Giant "right now" but that he does "understand the business side of football." In a Q&A with the New York Post, Nicks talked about a lot of things including his future with the team, hinting that he's not promising a return to the team after this season when his contract runs out. He said he's focused only on the 2013 season.

Nicks also said he did promise coach Tom Coughlin he would attend voluntary OTA workouts but skipped them because he didn't want to open himself up to injury. Nicks broke his foot at OTA workouts last year. The receiver said he did apologize to his coach.

"At the end of the day, there's stuff that's mandatory and there's things that are not mandatory," he said. "From my eyes, anytime you can let your body rest [is good]. Football is a physical sport, and it's a long season, too. Anytime you can let your body rest, I feel like that's always a blessing."

Vincent Jackson backs Josh Freeman
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

(1:02 pm ET) There was some speculation coming into this season that Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman's job could be in jeopardy, but receiver Vincent Jackson is backing Freeman heading into training camp.

The Tampa Tribune reports that Jackson said Freeman has returned as a far more comfortable and confident quarterback in Year 2 of offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan's system.

Ronnie Hillman wants bigger role
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

(12:53 pm ET) Broncos running back Ronnie Hillman is out to prove he can be the starter in Denver this season. He knows people knock him because of his size and see him better suited to be just a change-of-pace back.

"You get that when you're a smaller guy," Hillman said, according to NFL.com. "You can't take the pounding, but I just brush it off. Of course you hear things. I'm not going to sit hear and say I don't hear what they say, but you just got to let it go. Obviously, getting 22 carries in negative 13-degree weather against the Ravens (in the divisional playoffs), they shouldn't have much else to say about that if they're paying attention."

The report says Hillman put on 15 pounds of muscle in the offseason and now weighs 200 pounds. He said the Broncos actually want him to drop weight and play in the 190-to-195 range.

Hillman is competing for the starting job with rookie Montee Ball. Knowshon Moreno is also in the mix for playing time now that Willis McGahee has been released.

Vonta Leach close to finding team
by Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

(12:45 pm ET) Fullback Vonta Leach expects to sign with a new team soon after being released by the Ravens last week.

"I know I can play in this league, and I've got some teams that are courting me," Leach said, according to the Daily Reflector. "In the next two weeks, I know where I'll be playing."

Leach has called a return to the Texans, where he earned his first Pro Bowl selection in 2010, his first choice. He visited with the Dolphins last week. Nearly every team that features a fullback has been connected to Leach at some point in the last week.

"There are a lot of teams out there that want me; about seven teams," Leach said. "Me and my agent are going to take our time and see what's the best fit for me. I'm probably going to play three more years before I hang it up."

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2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

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2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
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7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
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9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
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2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
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8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
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2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
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8	Patriots, DST
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