Jan. 29, 2009

Beware of drafting Super Bowl losers

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

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Fantasy owners need to root for the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII. It's the best thing for the 2009 season.

Losing in the Super Bowl has meant bad things for NFL teams the following year. Usually it's because the superstars have struggled or suffered a serious injury. And it's been going on for years.

The Cardinals have better Fantasy options than the Steelers, and more changes would happen in Arizona than Pittsburgh if the Cardinals lose. So Fantasy owners should put away the Terrible Towel and root for Rod Tidwell's favorite team. Watch Jerry Maguire for inspiration because it's better for Fantasy leagues if the Cardinals win.

The last thing you want to see is Kurt Warner and/or Anquan Boldin leave Arizona or Larry Fitzgerald get hurt. Things will remain status quo in Pittsburgh with Ben Roethlisberger and Co., win or lose, but the loser of this game could be in trouble.

Just look at New England in 2008. Tom Brady was lost for the year in Week 1 with a torn ACL, and his future is now in doubt. Laurence Maroney was exposed as a bust, and all the Patriots stars saw their stats go down as they missed the playoffs despite an 11-5 finish.


Sure, it's a coincidence, but the Pats lost last February and Brady went down in the next game. (US Presswire)

In looking at the Super Bowl runner-up for every year since 2000, only the Seahawks made the playoffs after losing the Super Bowl in 2005. All the other teams failed to make the postseason for one reason or another.

You can make the argument about tougher schedule, longer season with wear and tear on players or even luck running out, but injuries have been the biggest reason why the Super Bowl loser has suffered a season-long hangover. Brady had the most significant injury, but he's not alone.

In 2002, the Rams missed the playoffs after losing to the Patriots in the Super Bowl in 2001, with quarterback Kurt Warner (broken pinkie) missing most of the season. In 2003, the Raiders missed the playoffs after losing to the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl in 2002, with quarterback Rich Gannon (neck) missing most of the year.

The Panther lost wide receiver Steve Smith (broken leg) for all but one game in 2004 after losing in the Super Bowl to New England in 2003. And the Eagles were without quarterback Donovan McNabb (hernia) and wide receiver Terrell Owens (suspended by the team) for the majority of the 2005 season after losing to the Patriots in the Super Bowl in 2004.

The Seahawks, even though they made the playoffs, still had to deal with injuries to running back Shaun Alexander (foot) and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (knee) in 2006 after losing in the Super Bowl to Pittsburgh. And in 2007, the Bears had season-ending injuries to quarterback Rex Grossman (knee) and running back Cedric Benson (knee) after losing in the Super Bowl to Indianapolis in 2006.

The Super Bowl winner has also been affected -- just ask Plaxico Burress. The Steelers also had Roethlisberger deal with a motorcycle accident and an appendectomy, which led to a poor season in 2006 after winning the title against Seattle. But the losers have suffered the worst fate.

So what does this mean for your Fantasy leagues in 2009 when it comes to the Cardinals and Steelers? You're still going to draft Warner, Boldin and Fitzgerald, no matter where any of them play next season. The same goes for Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes.

But better things would happen if Arizona wins. Warner would be re-signed as a free agent, and Boldin could get a new contract to stay. Along with Fitzgerald, one of the best passing attacks would remain intact. You'd still have an inconsistent running game with Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower, but we're really concerned with the air attack here.

The result wouldn't change much in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger remains a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. Ward and Holmes are starting Fantasy receivers but not impact players. And Parker is still a No. 2 running back at best, especially with Rashard Mendenhall coming back this year.

Just be careful when it comes to the Super Bowl runner-up. They have not been good the following season, and you don't want your Fantasy team to suffer because of a fluke injury or bad luck.

Below is a look at key Fantasy contributors from the Super Bowl runner-ups since 2000. Listed is the year they made the Super Bowl and their stats the following season.

2007

Patriots (lost to the Giants 17-14 in XLII)
Tom Brady
2007: 4,806 passing yards, 50 touchdowns, eight interceptions
2008: 76 passing yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions

Laurence Maroney
2007: 835 rushing yards, six touchdowns; four catches, 116 receiving yards
2008: 93 rushing yards, no touchdowns; no catches

Randy Moss
2007: 98 catches, 1,493 receiving yards, 23 touchdowns
2008: 69 catches, 1,008 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns

Wes Welker
2007: 112 catches, 1,175 receiving yards, eight touchdowns
2008: 111 catches, 1,165 receiving yards, three touchdowns

Benjamin Watson
2007: 36 catches, 389 receiving yards, six touchdowns
2008: 22 catches, 209 receiving yards, two touchdowns

2006

Bears (lost to the Colts 29-17 in XLI)
Rex Grossman
2006: 3,193 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 20 interceptions
2007: 1,411 passing yards, four touchdowns, seven interceptions

Thomas Jones
2006: 1,210 rushing yards, six touchdowns; 36 catches, 154 receiving yards
2007*: 1,119 rushing yards, one touchdown; 28 catches, 217 receiving yards, one touchdown

Cedric Benson
2006: 647 rushing yards, six touchdowns; eight catches, 54 receiving yards
2007: 674 rushing yards, four touchdowns; 17 catches, 123 receiving yards

Bernard Berrian
2006: 51 catches, 775 receiving yards, six touchdowns
2007: 70 catches, 948 receiving yards, five touchdowns

Muhsin Muhammad
2006: 60 catches, 863 receiving yards, five touchdowns
2007: 40 catches, 570 receiving yards, three touchdowns

Desmond Clark
2006: 45 catches, 626 receiving yards, six touchdowns
2007: 44 catches, 545 receiving yards, four touchdowns

*spent 2007 with the New York Jets

2005

Seahawks (lost to the Steelers 21-10 in XL)
Matt Hasselbeck
2005: 3,459 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, nine interceptions
2006: 2,442 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 15 interceptions

Shaun Alexander
2005: 1,880 rushing yards, 27 touchdowns; 15 catches, 78 receiving yards, one touchdown
2006: 896 rushing yards, seven touchdowns; no catches

Darrell Jackson
2005: 38 catches, 482 receiving yards, three touchdowns
2006: 63 catches, 956 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns

Joe Jurevicius
2005: 55 catches, 694 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns
2006*: 40 catches, 495 receiving yards, three touchdowns

Bobby Engram
2005: 67 catches, 778 receiving yards, three touchdowns
2006: 24 catches, 290 receiving yards, one touchdown

Jerramy Stevens
2005: 45 catches, 554 receiving yards, five touchdowns
2006: 22 catches, 231 receiving yards, four touchdowns

*spent 2006 with the Browns

2004

Eagles (lost to the Patriots 24-21 in XXXIX)
Donovan McNabb
2004: 3,875 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, eight interceptions
2005: 2,507 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, nine interceptions

Brian Westbrook
2004: 812 rushing yards, three touchdowns; 73 catches, 703 receiving yards, six touchdowns
2005: 617 rushing yards, three touchdowns; 61 catches, 616 receiving yards, four touchdowns

Terrell Owens
2004: 77 catches, 1,200 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns
2005: 47 catches, 763 receiving yards, six touchdowns

Todd Pinkston
2004: 36 catches, 676 receiving yards, one touchdown
2005: Did Not Play

L.J. Smith
2004: 34 catches, 377 receiving yards, five touchdowns
2005: 61 catches, 682 receiving yards, three touchdowns

2003

Panthers (lost to the Patriots 32-29 in XXXVIII)
Jake Delhomme
2003: 3,219 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 16 interceptions
2004: 3,886 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, 15 interceptions

Stephen Davis
2003: 1,444 rushing yards, eight touchdowns; 14 catches, 159 receiving yards
2004: 92 rushing yards; two catches, 32 receiving yards

DeShaun Foster
2003: 429 rushing yards; 26 catches, 207 receiving yards, two touchdowns
2004: 255 rushing yards, two touchdowns; nine catches, 76 receiving yards

Steve Smith
2003: 88 catches, 1,110 receiving yards, seven touchdowns
2004: six catches, 60 receiving yards

Muhsin Muhammad
2003: 54 catches, 837 receiving yards, three touchdowns
2004: 93 catches, 1,405 receiving yards, 16 touchdowns

2002

Raiders (lost to the Buccaneers 48-21 in XXXVII)
Rich Gannon
2002: 4,689 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
2003: 1,274 passing yards, six touchdowns, four interceptions

Charlie Garner
2002: 962 rushing yards, seven touchdowns; 91 catches, 941 receiving yards, four touchdowns
2003: 553 rushing yards, three touchdowns; 48 catches, 386 receiving yards, one touchdown

Zack Crockett
2002: 118 rushing yards, eight touchdowns
2003: 145 rushing yards, seven touchdowns

Jerry Rice
2002: 92 catches, 1,211 receiving yards, seven touchdowns
2003: 63 catches, 869 receiving yards, two touchdowns

Tim Brown
2002: 81 catches, 930 receiving yards, two touchdowns
2003: 52 catches, 567 receiving yards, two touchdowns

Jerry Porter
2002: 51 catches, 688 receiving yards, nine touchdowns
2003: 28 catches, 361 receiving yards, one touchdown

2001

Rams (lost to the Patriots 20-17 in XXXVI)
Kurt Warner
2001: 4,830 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, 22 interceptions
2002: 1,431 passing yards, three touchdowns, 11 interceptions

Marshall Faulk
2001: 1,382 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns; 83 catches, 765 receiving yards, nine touchdowns
2002: 953 rushing yards, eight touchdowns; 80 catches, 537 receiving yards, two touchdowns

Torry Holt
2001: 81 catches, 1,363 receiving yards, seven touchdowns
2002: 91 catches, 1,302 receiving yards, four touchdowns

Isaac Bruce
2001: 64 catches, 1,106 receiving yards, six touchdowns
2002: 79 catches, 1,075 receiving yards, seven touchdowns

Ricky Proehl
2001: 40 catches, 563 receiving yards, five touchdowns
2002: 43 catches, 466 receiving yards, four touchdowns

2000

Giants (lost to the Ravens 34-7 in XXXV)
Kerry Collins
2000: 3,610 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions
2001: 3,764 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 16 interceptions

Tiki Barber
2000: 1,006, eight touchdowns; 70 catches, 719 receiving yards, one touchdown
2001: 865 rushing yards, four touchdowns; 72 catches, 577 receiving yards

Ron Dayne
2000: 770 rushing yards, five touchdowns
2001: 690 rushing yards, seven touchdowns

Ike Hilliard
2000: 55 catches, 787 receiving yards, eight touchdowns
2001: 52 catches, 659 receiving yards, six touchdowns

Amani Toomer
2000: 78 catches, 1,094 receiving yards, seven touchdowns
2001: 72 catches, 1,054 receiving yards, five touchdowns

Do you have a question or comment for Jamey? Send your thoughts to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and we'll post the best responses. Be sure to put Attn: Super Bowl losers in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
11:38 AM

News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.

Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012

News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.

Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012

News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."

Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012

News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."

Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012

News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.

Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012

News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."

Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012

News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."

Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012

News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."

Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012

News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.

Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012

News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."

Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

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