2009 Fantasy outlooks: Baltimore Ravens

Senior Fantasy Writer

May 20, 2009

The Ravens shocked the rest of the league and possibly themselves by making the playoffs last year with a rookie head coach and rookie quarterback. They did it with a strong running game and their usual prowess on defense, but those two spots could be in trouble this season. Baltimore bolstered its offensive line with free agent center Matt Birk and rookie tackle Michael Oher, but veteran Willie Anderson retired and standout fullback Lorenzo Neal is now in Oakland. Those two losses will be felt on offense, especially Neal.

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LeRon McClain, who turned into a stud last year running behind Neal, will move back to fullback. The Ravens still have Willis McGahee and Ray Rice, but McClain was a tremendous Fantasy option that is now gone. Joe Flacco should build off a solid rookie season, but the Ravens failed to improve his weapons. On defense, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs remain part of the dominant unit, but defensive coordinator Rex Ryan is now the head coach for the Jets. He took Bart Scott with him as a free agent, so the unit could take a step back in production.

Sleeper ... Ray Rice, RB

Rice had the chance to make an impact as a rookie last year with Willis McGahee again dealing with injuries, but he was supplanted by LeRon McClain and never recovered. Rice finished the season with 454 rushing yards and 33 catches for 273 yards, but he failed to score a touchdown. This year, McClain is moving to fullback to replace the departed Lorenzo Neal, which opens the door for Rice to be the No. 2 option in the running game. He will likely be on the field for passing downs and showed last year he can catch the ball out of the backfield, and the Ravens need plenty of help in the passing game. With McGahee's injury history (he had another minor ankle surgery this offseason) and with McClain out of the way, Rice has the chance to get significant touches this year behind a good offensive line.

Breakout ... Mark Clayton, WR

Fantasy value chart
Player	Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco
Troy Smith
Running Backs
Willis McGahee
Ray Rice
LeRon McClain
Wide Receivers
Derrick Mason
Mark Clayton
Demetrius Williams
Tight Ends
Todd Heap
L.J. Smith
Kicker/DST
Steven Hauschka
Ravens DST

Clayton is the type of player you want to target with a late-round pick because the Ravens are desperate for someone to step up in the passing game. Derrick Mason remains a productive wide receiver, but he's coming off shoulder surgery and is 35. Todd Heap has been injury prone, and L.J. Smith, a free agent acquisition, isn't going to dramatically improve the receiving corps. That's where Clayton comes in, and he has the extra motivation of being in a contract year. Last season, Clayton improved as Joe Flacco did with strong outings in November and December. Clayton had three touchdowns in five games in November and two games over 120 yards receiving in his final five games. If he can produce at that level for a full season, he could emerge as a No. 3 Fantasy wide receiver. We used to view Clayton as a potential star, and now is the time for him to prove it.

Bust ... LeRon McClain, RB

The news that McClain was moving to fullback nearly brought my colleague Dave Richard to tears. Many Fantasy owners would likely agree after McClain had a breakout season last year with 1,025 total yards and 11 touchdowns. But with Lorenzo Neal leaving as a free agent, the Ravens needed to move McClain back to his natural position since Willis McGahee and Ray Rice are on the roster. McClain will likely remain the goal-line back and continue to find the end zone, but his yardage is going to significantly decrease. If you want to view McClain as a poor man's LenDale White or even in line to what T.J. Duckett has become in Seattle, that's a safe comparison, and McClain could still get carries if McGahee gets hurt again this year. But with the news that McClain won't be starting or even sharing carries at tailback, it's enough to make a grown man cry.

Training camp topics

The Ravens have some adjustments to make this season with Greg Mattison replacing Rex Ryan as defensive coordinator. Will he be as aggressive and creative with his blitz packages? And can Ray Lewis and Ed Reed continue to stay healthy? Those two factors will determine how good the unit will be this season. The defense does get some good news with Kelly Gregg, Dawan Landry and Tavares Gooden coming back from injury. But Mattison's influence will be the biggest factor.

2008 Touches Leaders
Player	Touches
LeRon McClain	251
Willis McGahee	194
Ray Rice	140
Mark Clayton	47
Todd Heap	35

Joe Flacco will have a lot of pressure to carry the offense if the run game falters with Lorenzo Neal gone, but Matt Birk and Michael Oher should help the offensive line remain stout. Flacco will need Derrick Mason and Todd Heap to return to health and Mark Clayton to pick up where last season left off. Willis McGahee also needs to stay healthy with LeRon McClain now playing fullback. If you're big on special teams, the kicking battle between Steven Hauschka and Graham Gano will be interesting as the two fight to replace longtime kicker Matt Stover.

Injury update

Willis McGahee (ankle, considered probable to start training camp) ... Derrick Mason (shoulder, considered questionable to start training camp)

Are you ready for the 2009 Fantasy season? If not, we're here for you. Send us an e-mail at DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. We'll respond to as many as we can.

Doctors confident in Gronk
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
10:42 AM

News: ESPN reports that Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is scheduled to undergo the fourth surgery on his left forearm on Monday, should be OK. The report says doctors feel confident that the infection has been eradicated, but they won't know for sure until they take tests during the procedure and then examine those over the next week. A new plate is expected to replace the one already in his arm and he will begin a new 10-11 week recovery period.

Analysis: We're glad to hear that Gronkowski should be OK after the forearm surgery, but he still has to deal with the upcoming procedure on his back, which should take place in 3-4 weeks. The goal is get Gronkowski back on the field for training camp, but he might not be ready until just before the start of the season. If Gronkowski is 100 percent with all his ailments then he has the chance to remain the No. 1 tight end in Fantasy with a pick in Round 2. But based on his health in May, he is dropping down the rank lists to more of a Top 5 Fantasy tight end. He's still worth drafting by Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues, but his value has taken a hit with another forearm surgery and the potential back problem. Stay tuned, and hopefully we get more good news as the offseason moves on.

RG3 begins throwing
Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
10:34 AM

News: The father for Robert Griffin III told USA Today his son has been throwing a football since late April. That suggests he's ahead of schedule and could be ready to play in Week 1 against the Eagles on Sept. 9. RG3 posted on Twitter he had been doing "a couple of roll out throws," meaning he's running and throwing at the same time. "Everybody in the organization is targeting that season opener," Robert Griffin II said.

Analysis: The father added that RG3 is a little ahead of himself in his rehab compared to when he tore his right ACL in college, another good sign. Griffin tore up his knee on January 6 and the typical recovery from just an ACL procedure is nine months. His knee was damaged beyond that -- he also injured his MCL and PCL. Training camp opens on July 25, less than seven months after he got hurt. The Redskins' first game takes place September 9, eight months and three days after he got hurt. If the Redskins approach the injury with the long-term picture in mind then they might not rush him back so soon. A Fantasy gameplan: Draft Griffin with a pick in Round 7 or 8 and pair him with Carson Palmer in the final rounds. Palmer has a great early-season schedule and the Cardinals take on the Panthers in Week 5 when the Redskins are on bye. We'll keep you posted on RG3.

Gillislee has chance to start
Mike Gillislee, RB, MIA
10:25 AM

News: The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports that Dolphins rookie Mike Gillislee, who ran for 1,152 yards and 10 touchdowns in his senior season at Florida, will compete with Lamar Miller, a 2012 fourth-round pick, and Daniel Thomas, a 2011 second-round pick, for the starting tailback spot during training camp this summer. Gillislee was drafted in the fifth round this year.

Analysis: We'd be shocked if Gillislee was the starting running back this season, but he doesn't have to leap frog proven veterans. Miller is unproven after barely playing as a rookie, and Thomas has struggled in two years. Still, Miller is expected to start, and Gillislee has the chance to beat out Thomas for the No. 2 job. Keep an eye on what happens, and unless Gillislee somehow ascends to the top of the depth chart he is only worth drafting with a late-round flier in standard leagues. In rookie-only formats take a chance on Gillislee with a second-round pick.

Vick: New offense is 'a lot easier'
Michael Vick, QB, PHI
9:15 AM

News: In an interview with 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia, Michael Vick said his critics "know nothing about football" and preferred not to address issues about his play up to this point. That's because he's excited about the future, mainly working in Chip Kelly's new up-tempo no-huddle offense. Vick's working on ball security with Kelly, just one of several areas he has to clean up in order to efficiently play, which he's excited to do. "We had a lot of deeper throws last year, which required more time," Vick said. "It's just a big difference. Not to say there was anything wrong with the West Coast system, I loved it. I spent seven years in it, and it was cool. But I think the change of pace for me at this point in my career is good and the game is a lot easier now."

Analysis: If Vick likes the new offense and thinks it's easier to run, that can only mean good things for his statistics. There's still a camp battle to be had with Nick Foles and rookie Matt Barkley but we expect Vick to get the job. How long he has it is another question since he has a propensity for getting hurt. Vick is one of the appealing No. 2 Fantasy QBs to draft with a mid-round pick this summer, particularly to pair up with a starter you end up waiting for on Draft Day.

Cameron expected to be busy
Jordan Cameron, TE, CLE
9:26 AM

News: In a Q&A with readers, Cleveland Plain Dealer writer Mary Kay Cabot believes the Browns like tight end Jordan Cameron a lot and plan to throw to him plenty. He was targeted on a number of deep balls in their recent OTAs. Head coach Rob Chudzinski and offensive coordinator Norv Turner both have experience developing quality tight ends. "This is an offense that has featured tight ends and tight ends have always been a big part of it," Chudzinski said of Cameron two weeks ago. "He has the skill set that fits."

Analysis: Cameron isn't going to get picked in every single draft unless he has a fantastic training camp and preseason. And even if he gets rolling he won't be so popular that he gets taken with a decent pick. Consider Cameron among the low-end options you can find toward the end of your draft this summer.

RG3 begins throwing
Redskins, TQB WAS,
10:34 AM

Reed ready for OTAs
Brooks Reed, LB, HOU
10:25 AM

News: Texans linebacker Brooks Reed was present at the team's OTA workouts following offseason groin surgery. He's been lifting weights and running hard for the past three weeks without issue according to Comcast Sportsnet.

Analysis: There seems to be some belief that Reed could move to the inside of the Texans defense alongside Brian Cushing, but Darryl Sharpton is still in the mix there. If anything it's nice versatility for Reed. We'll see how he handles any extra work. For now he's a reserve Fantasy linebacker.

Freeney to play LB and DE?
Dwight Freeney, DE, IND
10:14 AM

News: New Chargers pass rusher Dwight Freeney told Sports Illustrated he will not only play outside linebacker but also work as a defensive end. "They'll run both (the 3-4 and 4-3)," Freeney said. "They're willing to feature me and free me up to make plays. And they're going to put me in good matchups in the 3-4."

Analysis: This should be considered good news for Freeney, who was effective as a down lineman over his career but struggled last year at outside linebacker. The Chargers initially designated him as a linebacker, which would be his position in Fantasy if they keep him there. Such a designation would keep his Fantasy value low since he doesn't post a lot of tackles and might not deliver as many sacks as he did previously in his career.

Smith moving to linebacker
Will Smith, DE, NO
10:04 AM

News: Saints general manager Mickey Loomis said the Saints will use Will Smith as an outside linebacker this season.

Analysis: Smith is a big pass rusher who has lost some of his appeal over the years. He's posted 6.5 sacks or less each of the last three years. As a defensive lineman he's not a bad option for Fantasy purposes but lumping him in with the outside linebackers really makes him less appealing because other linebackers will outproduce him easily. Smith is no better than a low-end option so long as he's a linebacker. A trade to a 4-3 team in need of a pass rusher would help his value rebound.

Bishop says he'll be ready for camp
Desmond Bishop, LB, GB
10:00 AM

News: Linebacker Desmond Bishop told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel he plans to be "110 percent" for training camp. He's working his way back from a torn hamstring.

Analysis: Bishop is a gem for Fantasy when he's healthy as he accumulates plenty of tackles with some sacks and other pass defense stats mixed in. Though the clock's ticking on him being a productive defender, he should manage to be a good option if he stays healthy for another year or two. We'll see if he's healthy in 2013.

More Updates

1	Peyton Manning, DEN, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Tom Brady, NE, QB
6	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
7	Robert Griffin III, WAS, QB
8	Russell Wilson, SEA, QB
9	Andrew Luck, IND, QB
10	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
All Rankings

1	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
2	C.J. Spiller, BUF, RB
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
4	Alfred Morris, WAS, RB
5	Frank Gore, SF, RB
6	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
7	DeMarco Murray, DAL, RB
8	Jamaal Charles, KC, RB
9	Stevan Ridley, NE, RB
10	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Dez Bryant, DAL, WR
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN, WR
4	Brandon Marshall, CHI, WR
5	Wes Welker, DEN, WR
6	Eric Decker, DEN, WR
7	Reggie Wayne, IND, WR
8	Steve Smith, CAR, WR
9	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
10	Marques Colston, NO, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
5	Greg Olsen, CAR, TE
6	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
7	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
8	Dwayne Allen, IND, TE
9	Kyle Rudolph, MIN, TE
10	Delanie Walker, TEN, TE
All Rankings

1	Matt Prater, DEN, K
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
3	Shaun Suisham, PIT, K
4	Adam Vinatieri, IND, K
5	Blair Walsh, MIN, K
6	Nick Novak, SD, K
7	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
8	Jason Hanson, DET, K
9	Mason Crosby, GB, K
10	Josh Brown, NYG, K
All Rankings

1	Steelers, DST
2	49ers, DST
3	Broncos, DST
4	Chargers, DST
5	Seahawks, DST
6	Bengals, DST
7	Bills, DST
8	Patriots, DST
9	Texans, DST
10	Packers, DST
All Rankings