2009 Fantasy outlooks: Green Bay Packers

The Packers limped to a 6-10 finish in 2008, but the offense can't be blamed for it. Led by first-year starter Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay finished eighth in total offense with an average of 26.2 points per game. Ryan Grant clawed his way to just over 1,200 rush yards while Greg Jennings and Donald Driver each had over 1,000 receiving yards. But the cream of the crop was Rodgers, who threw for 4,038 yards, 28 touchdowns and added 207 rush yards and four more scores.

While the offense performed well, the defense plummeted. The combination of injuries to starting cornerbacks Al Harris and Charles Woodson along with a tired pass rush (just 27 sacks) did in the Packers. Aaron Kampman, usually a staple in the sack leader category, had 9.5 -- his lowest since 2005. The run defense also struggled, especially after linebacker Nick Barnett suffered a season-ending right knee injury. With the Packers unable to stop anybody, the team faltered.

As such, the Packers spent the offseason rebuilding its defense, almost from the ground up. The team hired Dom Capers to install his version of the 3-4 scheme defense, making the team the only one in the NFC North to use three linemen and four linebackers. The Packers addressed their defensive makeover in the draft, adding nose tackle B.J. Raji, outside linebacker Clay Matthews and end Jarius Wynn. But those are the only major additions to the defense as the team believes many of the current personnel fit the profile for the 3-4 defense, which includes Kampman moving to outside linebacker.

Offensively, not much will change. The team's version of the West Coast Offense should still be effective as Rodgers has a good supporting cast led by Jennings. The run game should also be more effective in 2009 as Grant isn't holding out for a new deal and has participated in all offseason workouts. He should be healthy for training camp this year, and the team is focused on leaning a bit more on the run than they did in the second half of last season. Ultimately, that will come down to how the defense plays in 2009; if they can effectively stop opponents, the Packers won't throw as much as they did last season. If not, then Rodgers' arm will be plenty busy.

Sleeper ... Brandon Jackson, RB

Fantasy owners weren't the only ones unhappy with Grant's play last season. The Packers leaned on their newly paid workhorse for much of the year as Grant finished with 312 carries -- a total high enough to help him top 1,200 rushing yards despite four 100-yard games and seven outings with 85-plus yards. Grant's problems last year were related to missing offseason workouts and hurting his hamstring in camp, issues that aren't there in 2009. But in the event that Grant struggles out of the gate, Jackson will be there to relieve him of his workload. In fact, Jackson was more impressive in his second season despite getting fewer rush yards (248) than as a rookie (267), but did it on 30 fewer carries. Don't be surprised to see Jackson work as at least a third-down back as the Packers capitalize on his pass-catching ability. He's not only a great insurance policy for Grant, but he'll also help accumulate points and have room to grow in the Packers' powerful offense. Think late-round pick with him.

Fantasy value chart
Player	Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Running Backs
Ryan Grant
Brandon Jackson
Wide Receivers
Greg Jennings
Donald Driver
Jordy Nelson
James Jones
Tight Ends
Donald Lee
Kicker/DST
Mason Crosby
Packers DST

Breakout ... Jordy Nelson, WR

It's not only impressive that Nelson finished fifth among rookie wide receivers in receptions and receiving yards last year with 33, but it's that he managed to do it with a pair of established 1,000-yard pass catchers on the roster. Nelson has quality hands and decent speed, enough to make him a reliable target to move the chains. In fact, 18 of his 33 catches last year resulted in first downs for the Packers, so he's got a role carved out already. It will only get bigger -- Nelson is more comfortable in the Green Bay offense and could start stealing receptions away from Donald Driver, another possession-type for the Packers. Nelson should be a useful late-round draft choice in leagues where receptions count, and he should also develop into a quality waiver-wire pickup as the season develops.

Bust ... Donald Driver, WR

Driver is one of the most vanilla picks in Fantasy, and there's reason to believe he'll have his first sub-1,000-yard season in 2009. Heck, he almost had it in 2008 before a bang-bang December saw him rack up 314 yards in his final four games, including 111 in the season finale vs. the Lions. He's a polished possession receiver, one who will be 34 when the season starts. And while he's had five straight 1,000-yard campaigns, he's never faced the kind of competition for catches like he'll find this season. Jordy Nelson and James Jones are looking for playing time and tight ends Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley should also chip away at his targets. Driver doesn't have much big-play ability left as he's seen his receptions, receiving yardage and catches for 20-plus yards dip in three consecutive seasons. Furthermore, he's scored five or fewer touchdowns in three of his last four seasons. With the Packers poised to run more and other receivers progressing, Driver shouldn't be expected to be a 1,000-yard candidate any longer. He's more of a low-end No. 3 Fantasy option.

Training camp topics

Can the Packers pull off the transition to a 3-4 defense smoothly? That's what their die-hard fans and football analysts will check out first when looking at this team. The key to a good 3-4 scheme is a quality defensive line that opens the door for linebackers to make plays against skill-position players. Raji will have to be a factor right away to give Green Bay the push it needs across the board, though former first-round pick Justin Harrell will be under even more scrutiny since he's done virtually nothing since entering the league in 2007. The Packers also hope that the move to the 3-4 scheme will make fourth-year linebacker A.J. Hawk a better player.

Offensively, there's a lot of young talent that the club is expecting more from. In addition to Nelson and Jackson, third-year wideout James Jones, second-year rusher Kregg Lumpkin and second-year tight end Jermichael Finley are going to push for playing time. It will be interesting to see how they're used in varying formations throughout the preseason -- all should be at least quality role players, which is to say they could take some touches away from their veteran teammates.

But they key to the Packers' success this year will be Rodgers, who a year ago was shrugging off concerns about replacing Brett Favre. Rodgers' ability to make plays out of the pocket combined with his solid arm make him a dangerous opponent (and a good Fantasy option). While he's got a terrific set of receivers and running backs to work with, there is some concern that his offensive line could be a detriment. The five guys up front -- especially on the right side -- will be under the microscope.

Injury update ... Nick Barnett (Knee; questionable for the start of training camp) ... Atari Bigby (Ankle; probable for the start of training camp).

Are you ready for the 2009 Fantasy season? If not, we're here for you. Send us an e-mail at DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. We'll respond to as many as we can.