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Dave Richard

2009 Fantasy outlooks: Seattle Seahawks

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Injuries decimated the Seahawks' 2008 season as players up and down the roster went on Injured Reserve. The good news is that nearly all of those players are coming back at 100 percent, and the club added some quality talent on both sides of the ball to improve their roster.

The biggest offensive splash made was the signing of wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, putting a big, sure-handed target into a receiving corps dominated by speedsters. Houshmandzadeh has 1,000-yard potential only because he has 100-catch potential, but he'll provide a safe outlet for quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (who was one of the walking wounded Seahawks last year) to lean on.

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The Seahawks had two major defensive developments: The drafting of linebacker Aaron Curry and the acquiring of defensive tackle Cory Redding from Detroit. Both players should be key figures in stopping the run, something the 'Hawks couldn't do much of last season, allowing 118.7 yards per game. They join a defense loaded with big-name talent that struggled last year, with Patrick Kerney and Lofa Tatupu being the primary names.

But the biggest change is at head coach, where Jim Mora Jr., takes over for Mike Holmgren, who left the team after a 10-year run. Mora, who was the team's secondary coach last year, has the experience to take over for Holmgren. He's enlisted in Greg Knapp to run the offense -- the two were in Atlanta together -- and will help coordinator Casey Bradley work with the defense. The coaching transition is one of several across the league, but there could be small issues here and there as the offense learns a modified version of their playbook.

Sleeper ... Matt Hasselbeck, QB

If you're a diligent Fantasy Football owner who does a lot of research before Draft Day, you should know better than to judge Hasselbeck on his 2008 campaign. Never once in the seven games he appeared in did he have his full complement of receivers to throw to, nor did he have a good running game to help him out. Granted, he didn't have a great run game when he posted career-highs in 2007, but that was what helped him get such great totals. The feeling here is that with the addition of Houshmandzadeh and the returns of Nate Burleson, Deion Branch and John Carlson, Hasselbeck will have enough options to target that he can't help but rack up a bunch of yardage, especially with the running game unimproved from a season ago. Expectations are fairly high, and the potential is there for him to end up as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback if he can stay on the field.

Fantasy value chart
Player Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Matt Hasselbeck
Running Backs
Julius Jones
Edgerrin James
Justin Forsett
Wide Receivers
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Deion Branch
Nate Burleson
Tight Ends
John Carlson
Kicker/DST
Olindo Mare
Seahawks DST

Breakout ... John Carlson, TE

Even with a crowded receiving corps, Carlson should continue his rise up the tight end ranks. Last year he was pretty much the only constant in the Seattle offense, catching five touchdowns on 55 receptions for 627 yards, all team-highs. Naturally, he's going to lose a lot of looks this year with the receiving corps healthy and improved, but he'll also see easier coverage since defenses will have to shift defensive backs away from him. He's going to cause some nightmares for defensive coordinators again this season and should see more looks in the end zone. Carlson ended last year as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end and remains a good one to target after the elite names go off the board in drafts.

Bust ... Julius Jones, RB

Handicapping the Seahawks run game is a lot like trying to guess what the weather will be like in Seattle from day to day. In theory, Jones makes sense as a Fantasy option because of his versatility and likely workload as a starter and yardage back. But in reality, Jones has been a disappointment over his last two seasons as defensive coordinators seemingly know what it takes to slow him down. He had back-to-back 100-yard games with a touchdown in Weeks 2 and 3 last year, then let everyone down with zero scores or big yardage totals for the rest of the season. The Seahawks brought in Edgerrin James late in training camp, signaling that the coaching staff hasn't been blown away by Jones or his potential. Don't get drawn into taking him because he's a starting running back available after Round 5 or 6. Expect modest totals with limited touchdowns.

2008 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
Julius Jones 172
Maurice Morris 151
T.J. Duckett 62
John Carlson 55
Leonard Weaver 50

Training camp topics

The Seahawks worked hard to improve their receiving corps, but what can we make of their run game? Essentially, they ignored that area, seemingly content with Jones, Duckett, second-year back/return man Justin Forsett and undrafted rookie Devin Moore making up the crew. The offensive line will move to a zone-blocking scheme this season, something Jones isn't necessarily used to working in. Even if they went to a multiple running back approach, their options don't really strike fear into any defensive coordinators.

With that in mind, the club could be on the brink of doing what they did in 2007 -- ignoring their run game and throwing the ball downfield play after play. You'll recall 2007 as the year Shaun Alexander went from Fantasy stud to Fantasy skunk and the year Hasselbeck set a franchise record with 562 passing attempts. Something similar could happen here, especially when you consider the talented nature of the receiving corps and the lack thereof at the running back position. Training camp could prove that theory wrong, so it's worth following the offensive developments.

Of course, if the offense is going to thrive under the passing game, then players like Hasselbeck (back, knee), Nate Burleson (knee) and Deion Branch (knee) will need to prove that they're healthy. They've all been working on coming back at full speed on their varying schedules, but it would be nice to see them all on the field at the same time for a series of practices before the curtain goes up on the regular season.

The Seahawks' defense is pretty much the same story -- can the players who were hurt last year regain their form? It starts with pass-rush end Patrick Kerney, who had shoulder trouble last year and hopes to be ready for the start of training camp. If he's effective, the entire unit will be better. Additionally, the improved depth along the D-line and linebacker positions help in case of injuries, and the secondary, which has been talented all along, should also see improvement if the front seven does its job.

Injury update ... Matt Hasselbeck (Back, knee; expected to be ready for the start of training camp) ... Deion Branch (Knee; questionable for the start of training camp) ... Nate Burleson (Knee; probable for the start of training camp) ... Patrick Kerney (Shoulder; probable for the start of training camp) ... Walter Jones (Knee; questionable for the start of training camp).

Are you ready for the 2009 Fantasy season? If not, we're here for you. Send us an e-mail at DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. We'll respond to as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that if the Steelers have decided to release WR Hines Ward he is unaware of it. The NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012. However, a source close to Ward said no one from the Steelers has indicated to him the team plans to release him. Ward, who could not be reached for comment, issued a statement on his Facebook page after the NFL Network report that said, "I don't normally like to respond to rumors, but as I've said all along, I want to finish my career with the Pittsburgh Steelers. And as I've already told the organization, I am willing to work with them to restructure my contract to make sure this happens.'' Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

Benjamin Watson
Watson over concussions
Benjamin Watson, TE, CLE
9:43 AM
News: The Boston Herald reports that Browns TE Benjamin Watson, who was placed on season-ending injured reserve in Cleveland in December due to concussion problems, said he was doing fine, had no lingering effects, and was ready to move forward and prepare to tackle his ninth season in 2012. Watson played in 13 games, and suffered three concussions, including in the preseason. After the third, which occurred against Pittsburgh in Week 14, doctors decided it would be best for him to shut it down. “I’m great. Three or four days after the last incident, I felt normal. I past all my cognitive tests. I didn’t have any headaches. I didn’t have any nausea. I didn’t have any dizziness,” he said. “With three games left, they just erred on the side of caution and decided to end the season for me. You hate for that to happen, but that’s why the doctors are in place. As far as lingering symptoms, I didn’t have anything. I know some guys have headaches for weeks. That wasn’t my scenario, thankfully. So hopefully, it was just a bad luck year.”
Analysis: Watson hopes to remain with the Browns in 2012 in what will be a contract year. He will likely compete with Evan Moore for playing time, but Watson has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Ignore him in most formats on Draft Day.

Richard Seymour
Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
2/12/2012
News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.
Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

 
 
 
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