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2009 Fantasy outlooks: Pittsburgh Steelers

Jamey Eisenberg
Senior Fantasy Writer
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The Steelers are the defending Super Bowl champions this year, and their team remains stout. They should be competitive again. The defense is intact, Ben Roethlisberger and the offense returns ready to go and they still play in a division they should win.

But while Pittsburgh is a great team, the Steelers don't have many great Fantasy options. For the most part, when you look at Pittsburgh, you're looking for reserve options, because the players never post overwhelming stats. Sure, you'll get moments with Willie Parker here or Hines Ward there, but they never do enough on a consistent basis to guarantee a starting spot. It's a source of frustration given the success of the team.

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Take away Roethlisberger's big year in 2007 when he passed for 32 touchdowns, and Big Ben is a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. In his four other seasons he never topped 18 touchdowns, and that's what you have to expect from him. Ward passes as a No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver, but at 33 and dealing with knee issues throughout his career, at some point he's going to break down. Santonio Holmes, who scored the winning touchdown in the Super Bowl, is boom or bust every week. And in the running game, Parker can still start some weeks, but we expect Rashard Mendenhall and even Mewelde Moore to steal touches. The only lock as a starter in your Fantasy lineup should be the Steelers DST, which remain a dominant unit.

Sleeper ... Limas Sweed, WR

Fantasy value chart
Player Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger
Charlie Batch
Dennis Dixon
Running Backs
Willie Parker
Rashard Mendenhall
Mewelde Moore
Wide Receivers
Hines Ward
Santonio Holmes
Limas Sweed
Shaun McDonald
Mike Wallace
Tight Ends
Heath Miller
Matt Spaeth
Kicker/DST
Jeff Reed
Steelers DST

The Steelers are expecting big things for Sweed this year with Nate Washington now in Tennessee. He assumes the No. 3 wide receiver spot behind Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, and Sweed showed in the playoffs he could be a playmaker. He has to get over some drop issues, but we think he should be fine. He showed in college at Texas that he can be a star, and the Steelers are going to eventually make the transition from Ward to Sweed, just not this year. But with Ward getting banged up the last four years, there will some weeks where Sweed could start. Washington has averaged 35 catches, 568 yards and four touchdowns a year the past three seasons in this role, so don't be afraid to draft Sweed with a late-round pick. He could end up as a No. 4 Fantasy option in deeper leagues.

Breakout ... Rashard Mendenhall, RB

Mendenhall should have been a breakout player last season when Willie Parker missed five games due to injury. But Mendenhall was hurt also with a shoulder injury, and his rookie year was limited to four games. Mewelde Moore benefitted with both guys out, but we like Mendenhall to play well this year. He's still the backup to Parker, but Mendenhall could be the short-yardage back and also factor into games as part of a tandem. The Steelers likely want to make sure Parker is ready for the playoffs, and we've seen Parker struggle to score the past two seasons with only seven touchdowns over that span. Don't reach too early on Mendenhall on Draft Day, but he's worth taking as a low-end No. 3 option with a mid-round pick. Mendenhall is definitely a sophomore to target as a second-year breakout after a disappointing rookie season.

Bust ... Santonio Holmes, WR

Holmes definitely steps up in big games, there's no doubt about that. His playoff run and Super Bowl MVP last year were amazing, but he's not going to turn into Larry Fitzgerald or Randy Moss as a result. Holmes tends to disappear too much during the regular season -- he had eight games with three catches or less last year and six games with less than 35 yards receiving. If you started him during those weeks you were likely pulling your hair out. He also had no 100-yard games and just five touchdowns. Holmes plays great against AFC North opponents, especially when he returns to Ohio against Cleveland and Cincinnati since he played at Ohio State, but he's just a No. 3 Fantasy option. If you're expecting Holmes to start for you then you're going to be disappointed. Only Hines Ward is worth consideration as a No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver for the Steelers.

Training camp topics

2008 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
Willie Parker 213
Mewelde Moore 180
Hines Ward 82
Santonio Holmes 57
Heath Miller 48
Nate Washington 45

The Steelers have to find the motivation to repeat as Super Bowl champions after winning the title last year. In 2006, after winning the title the year before, the team fell apart due to injuries and poor play. Ben Roethlisberger suffered the most with a motorcycle accident and appendectomy prior to the season and finished with a miserable year. Now, their offseason hasn't been nearly as tumultuous as that season, but there could be some complacency. That should be the Steelers only concern. Otherwise, pencil them in for the playoffs.

For Fantasy owners, making sure Willie Parker and Hines Ward are healthy is a key. There are capable backups waiting to take over in Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed if the starters get hurt, and Mewelde Moore could again be a waiver wire find if given a chance. The one thing Fantasy owners can definitely count on is the Steelers DST, which is an outstanding unit with James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley and Troy Polamalu leading the way. You can safely draft the Steelers DST as the first option at that position and have little worries about their production.

Injury update ... Ben Roethlisberger (Knee; considered probable to start training camp).

Are you ready for the 2009 Fantasy season? If not, we're here for you. Send us an e-mail at DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. We'll respond to as many as we can.

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Player News
Rob Gronkowski
First Gronk's arm, now his back?!
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
5/17/2013
News: On the same day NFL Network reported Rob Gronkowski had a Monday, May 20 date set for his fourth surgery related to his left forearm, USA Today reports the tight end's back is "acting up" and might require surgery after undergoing an MRI for a disc issue. The report said this disc is different than the one that needed to be shaved down in a 2009 surgical procedure, forcing Gronk to miss that year of football while enrolled at Arizona. ESPN reports the back issue is considered minor and his long-term prognosis is good. Gronkowski will see noted spine specialist Dr. Robert Watkins after his forearm surgery, which will replace a metal plate in his forearm. If Gronkowski needs back surgery the hope is that he can heal from that and his arm at the same time and be ready before the start of the season. Also, it bears repeating that a fifth arm surgery is still possible if there's an infection in his arm though ProFootballTalk.com reports doctors are confident that won't be the case.
Analysis: Before you hyperventilate and scratch Gronk off your rank lists, remember that it's only mid-May and there is still time to see how he heals up from whichever surgeries he ends up having. It goes without saying that his Fantasy draft stock will be affected negatively if he has all the procedures and isn't ready for training camp or preseason games. Count on us to keep you posted on the latest news on Gronkowski between now and when the season starts.

EJ Manuel
Manuel could start Week 1
EJ Manuel, QB, BUF
5/17/2013
News: The Bills official team website reports that new general manager Doug Whaley was asked in an appearance on the NFL Network about the chances of rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel being ready to start Week 1 of the regular season. Whaley didn’t rule out the possibility. “Time will tell,” said Whaley. ”He does have the work ethic and the leadership qualities that he’ll have a chance. But we believe competition brings out the best in everybody. Between him, Kevin Kolb, Tarvaris Jackson, even Jeff Tuel, we’re excited to see who comes out on top of that position battle.” Buffalo’s season opener is a home game against New England.
Analysis: We'd like to see Manuel start from Week 1 because he presents the most upside of the quarterback group in Buffalo. Keep an eye on Manuel's progress this offseason, and he has the chance to be a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback in standard leagues. In rookie-only drafts, Manuel should be considered a Top 15 overall selection.

Mike Goodson
Goodson arrested Friday
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
5/17/2013
News: Jets running back Mike Goodson was arrested on drug and weapon charges early on Friday morning, reports News 12 in New Jersey. According to the report, Goodson and another man were found intoxicated in a parked SUV along Route 80 in Denville, New Jersey, which is about 15 miles northwest of the Jets' headquarters in Florham Park. A loaded .45-caliber handgun with hollow-point bullets was found in the SUV and when the 25-year-old running back was transported to a hospital for evaluation, marijuana was discovered in his possession. The Jets signed Goodson to a three-year, $6 million contract on March 15 to compete for a starting job this season. Goodson's deal with the Jets included a $1.93 million guaranteed. CBSSports.com blogger Will Brinson researched that illegal possession of hollow point bullets is a "crime of the fourth degree" in New Jersey, which appears to be among the states with the strictest laws regarding the ammunition.
Analysis: Goodson could be headed to prison, not to mention an NFL suspension, if found guilty of this crime. Before this incident we expected him to be No. 2 on the depth chart behind Chris Ivory. Now there's no telling just how far he'll fall. For the time being there's no reason to spend anything more than a late-round flier on Goodson since his playing time was going to be fairly limited to begin with.

Bruce Irvin
Irvin suspended four games
Bruce Irvin, LB, SEA
5/17/2013
News: Seattle defensive end Bruce Irvin has been suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2013 regular season for violating the NFL policy on performance enhancing substances, the team reported Friday. Irvin will be eligible to return to the Seahawks' active roster on Monday, Sept. 30 following the team's Sept. 29 game against the Texans. Irvin is eligible to participate in all offseason and preseason practices and games. "I want to apologize to my teammates, coaches and Seahawks fans for making a mistake when I took a substance that is prohibited in the NFL without a medical exemption," Irvin said in a statement. "I am extremely disappointed in the poor judgment I showed and take full responsibility for my actions. I will not appeal the discipline and instead will focus my energy on preparing for the season so I can begin earning your trust and respect again. I look forward to contributing to the team the moment I return."
Analysis: Irvin had a solid year in 2012 with eight sacks. He didn't provide much else with only 16 total tackles and one fumble recovery, but he now will miss the first four games of the season. He is only worth drafting with a late-round flier in IDP leagues.

Josh Cribbs
Cribbs still not healthy
Josh Cribbs, WR, OAK
5/17/2013
News: The Raiders official team website reports that newly signed receiver Josh Cribbs hopes to have a role on offense as much as just being a return man. "Definitely. I feel like it’s a definite possibility for competition at that position," Cribbs said. "At this point, my job is to come in and be a special teams' guru to help solidify our special teams unit in the NFL and to raise our goals and our standards. If we do that, we will become an elite unit." Cribbs also addressed the health of his knee. "I’m doing well," Cribbs said. "If we were lining up to play football in June then it would be a hot topic. I will be ready to play football when it’s time to play football, and I think that is the important thing."
Analysis: It sounds like Cribbs is still dealing with his knee issue, but he should be ready for the start of training camp. He also could see time at receiver, but he'll have to prove himself first. He's not worth drafting in standard leagues, but he could be worth a late-round flier in leagues where you get points for return yardage.

Matt Ryan
Ryan speaks on O-line
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
5/17/2013
News: Matt Ryan's receiving threats are well documented and the Falcons' run game got a strong upgrade in Steven Jackson. But the offensive line is undergoing some changes as center Todd McClure retired and Tyson Clabo was released. Ryan says not to worry about it. "We've got a guy in Peter Konz that played guard for us last year, but during practice, I got a lot of snaps with Peter. Joe Hawley has played a little bit for us when Todd’s been out for a series or two throughout games the last couple of years. I’ll be fine. We’ll be fine with those guys in terms of the snap," Ryan told 790 The Zone in Atlanta. "It’s a little different and that takes some getting used to so it becomes something you don’t even think about. ... We've got Mike Johnson who has played a number of different roles for us. Then a young guy like Lamar Holmes, he’s a guy we drafted high last year that we feel really good about. He’s extremely talented and I think he’s beginning to learn the offense more and more and this offseason has been productive for him. I’m excited about those guys. I think they’re fully capable of coming in and playing good football for us. They just need to do it."
Analysis: The Falcons' offensive line is actually a significant factor for Ryan. Last season when he was not under pressure and not blitzed he completed over 70 percent of his passes. When he was blitzed or under pressure that completion percentage fell to under 62 percent according to Pro Football Focus. That's probably typical for most quarterbacks but we've seen passers' numbers completely decline when they're under duress (think of Arizona last year, Chicago and St. Louis in years past). Granted, Ryan's a very talented passer and the O-line shouldn't be what does him in, it's just something to watch in camp this summer. He remains a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback who will fall to Round 4 in drafts this summer.

Falcons
Ryan speaks on O-line
Falcons, TQB ATL,
5/17/2013
News: Matt Ryan's receiving threats are well documented and the Falcons' run game got a strong upgrade in Steven Jackson. But the offensive line is undergoing some changes as center Todd McClure retired and Tyson Clabo was released. Ryan says not to worry about it. "We've got a guy in Peter Konz that played guard for us last year, but during practice, I got a lot of snaps with Peter. Joe Hawley has played a little bit for us when Todd’s been out for a series or two throughout games the last couple of years. I’ll be fine. We’ll be fine with those guys in terms of the snap," Ryan told 790 The Zone in Atlanta. "It’s a little different and that takes some getting used to so it becomes something you don’t even think about. ... We've got Mike Johnson who has played a number of different roles for us. Then a young guy like Lamar Holmes, he’s a guy we drafted high last year that we feel really good about. He’s extremely talented and I think he’s beginning to learn the offense more and more and this offseason has been productive for him. I’m excited about those guys. I think they’re fully capable of coming in and playing good football for us. They just need to do it."
Analysis: The Falcons' offensive line is actually a significant factor for Ryan. Last season when he was not under pressure and not blitzed he completed over 70 percent of his passes. When he was blitzed or under pressure that completion percentage fell to under 62 percent according to Pro Football Focus. That's probably typical for most quarterbacks but we've seen passers' numbers completely decline when they're under duress (think of Arizona last year, Chicago and St. Louis in years past). Granted, Ryan's a very talented passer and the O-line shouldn't be what does him in, it's just something to watch in camp this summer. He remains a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback who will fall to Round 4 in drafts this summer.

Kendall Wright
Wright in better shape
Kendall Wright, WR, TEN
5/17/2013
News: The Titans official website reports that receiver Kendall Wright has never felt better physically. “I’m in the best shape I’ve ever been,” Wright said. The second-year receiver is tipping the scales around 187 pounds, approximately 14 pounds lighter than when he arrived last year. Wright attributed part of the transformation to workouts at Baylor after his rookie campaign ended. A bigger difference maker, however, may have been his routes through grocery stores that passed by junk food. “For the most part, it wasn’t about the running,” Wright said. “I just started taking care of my body and eating right. I wasn’t eating right at all. I was eating a lot of junk food because that’s what I like and that’s what I’d buy, but I cut down on that and just started eating right. When you don’t buy it, you’re not going to eat it, so I just stopped buying it.”
Analysis: Wright finished his rookie season with 64 catches for 626 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games. He enters this season with the chance to start for the Titans, and we like him as a key reserve receiver with upside. Plan on drafting Wright with a mid-round pick.

Thomas Keiser
Keiser rumbles to Bolts
Thomas Keiser, LB, CAR
5/17/2013
News: Days after his release from the Panthers, the Chargers have signed linebacker Thomas Keiser.
Analysis: Keiser played in four games last year before landing on IR with an elbow injury. He'll try and help replace Melvin Ingram in the team's pass rush. He's unlikely to be a relevant Fantasy option.

Brian Hoyer
Browns ink QB Hoyer
Brian Hoyer, QB, ARI
5/17/2013
News: The Browns have signed quarterback Brian Hoyer, according to multiple reports.
Analysis: Hoyer is a dark horse candidate to start for the Browns and probably has a better chance to be their backup. He'll start camp behind Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell on the depth chart. Only Hoyer's relatives will draft him in Fantasy.

 
 
 
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