2009 Fantasy outlooks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow DaveFollow CBS Fantasy Football
On the verge of making the playoffs last year, the Buccaneers took a nosedive and finished on the outside looking in in the NFC, a year after winning their division.
But for the Bucs, close didn't count. Jon Gruden and his offensive staff were fired, and defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin left to coach with his son at the University of Tennessee. The Bucs took this opportunity to make a clean start and named secondary coach Raheem Morris their new head coach. They gave backup quarterback Luke McCown a two-year contract extension and told 2008 starter Jeff Garcia to take a hike. They even expunged fan favorites Warrick Dunn, Joey Galloway, Ike Hilliard and Derrick Brooks from the roster, adding veteran talent like Derrick Ward, Kellen Winslow and Byron Leftwich, along with quarterback Josh Freeman, the team's first round pick.
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Another change: The Bucs' West Coast offense will be under the tutelage of Jeff Jagodzinski, the former Boston College head coach and Packers offensive coordinator. Jagodzinski is expected to push the envelope down field a little more, but even he would readily admit that using Ward and Earnest Graham in a Giants-like one-two rushing attack is too attractive to ignore. Throwing in Antonio Bryant, who broke out last season, and Winslow should only boost the passing game, especially if whoever is named the starting quarterback is efficient.
And even one more change: With Morris moving from secondary coach to head coach and Jim Bates taking over the defense playcalling, the Bucs won't employ their long-standing Tampa-2 defensive scheme. They will remain in the 4-3 front, but they'll rely on a heavy pass rush with physical interior defensive linemen and an aggressive blitz scheme. Morris will be the NFL's youngest head coach at just a few days over 33 years old when the season starts, so watching him work will be of interest.
Sleeper ... Earnest Graham, RB
It's strange to think of a running back who started 20 games and scored 14 touchdowns over his last two seasons as a sleeper, but after a season-ending ankle injury and the Buccaneers bringing in Derrick Ward, a lot of people have written off Graham. Don't be one of those people. By signing Ward, the Buccaneers simply put their running game in position to be a lot like the Giants rushing tandem last year. Ward figures to start and get the lion's share of the reps, but Graham will have his time, too -- especially at the goal-line. If you knew Graham was healthy, would get a good amount of the carries and have a chance at as many as 7-10 touchdowns, you'd want him with a middle- to late-round pick, wouldn't you? We think he'll be overlooked so much in drafts this summer that he'll inevitably be a quality sleeper in drafts and a potential starter in deep leagues.
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| Player | Draft Day value | |
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| Byron Leftwich |  | |
| Luke McCown | | |
| Josh Freeman | ||
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| Derrick Ward | | |
| Earnest Graham | | |
| Cadillac Williams | ||
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| Antonio Bryant | | |
| Michael Clayton | | |
| Dexter Jackson | ||
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| Kellen Winslow | | |
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| Matt Bryant | | |
| Buccaneers DST | | |
Breakout ... Derrick Ward, RB
Last year, Ward wasn't the big dog in the Giants' run game even though he amassed 1,025 rushing yards and 384 receiving yards. With just two touchdowns all year, Fantasy owners knew him as a good back, not a great back. That should change in 2009 as Ward should begin the year as the starter for Tampa Bay, sharing the overall running workload with Graham. In fact, Ward might earn close to all of the reps outside of short-yardage/goal-line work, opening the door for more yardage and more touchdowns than last year when he worked behind Brandon Jacobs. The Buccaneers' offensive line is a strength, and if the team opts to start rookie passer Josh Freeman, they'll rely on the run even more. Ward is a solid pickup as a No. 3 Fantasy running back with a pick between Rounds 6 and 7, and he could morph into a No. 2 option before the season is over.
Bust ... Antonio Bryant, WR
Bryant had the ultimate renaissance year with the Bucs in 2008. After sitting out the 2007 season, Bryant battled for playing time and eventually became a dominant receiving option for the offense, snaring 83 passes for 1,248 yards and seven touchdowns, the best totals in his career. But the Bucs' offense has changed after Jon Gruden's dismissal and the hiring of Jeff Jagodzinski. Sure, Bryant will still be the team's best receiving option, but with the addition of Winslow, he won't be the only guy getting targeted. Moreover, the club's quarterback position is in flux, which could mean trouble for Bryant finding rhythm with his receivers. And, Bryant has never posted back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns in six NFL seasons and has only topped four touchdowns once since his rookie year (last year). There's a lot of risk in taking Bryant to be your No. 2 Fantasy receiver this season.
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| Player | Touches |
| Warrick Dunn | 233 |
| Earnest Graham | 156 |
| Antonio Bryant | 85 |
| Cadillac Williams | 70 |
Training camp topics
The three-way battle royale to start at quarterback for the Bucs will take center stage at camp, though it involves no headliners or superstars. Leftwich is considered the favorite over McCown, though Freeman will attempt to be their long-term answer. Freeman hasn't seen the first-team reps that Leftwich and McCown have seen thus far during the offseason, so it's likely that we'll see a veteran start come Week 1. That said, McCown has been slow to learn the offense and Leftwich slow on the field due to his big body. Trusting any of these passers for Fantasy use isn't recommended.
Fortunately, the rest of Tampa's offense shouldn't have any issues. Ward and Graham working as the battery of the run game is established, as are Bryant and Winslow as the team's top receiving options. The offensive line is strong and effective. The only real other issue on offense is depth -- if the Bucs can harvest some of their younger talent into quality role players, it will only help the team grow faster.
The progression of the defense and of Raheem Morris as a head coach should go hand in hand. The Buccaneers made an interesting choice giving Morris the top job even though he's never been a coordinator or assistant head coach at the NFL level. His inexperience could be an issue once games kick off, and his overseeing of the defense might be a challenge at first since he's been working primarily with the secondary. While the Bucs have been a talented unit in the past, there are some questions about how they stack up this season, as they are thin at linebacker with ex-safety Jermaine Phillips and a banged-up Angelo Crowell currently slated to start. Transitioning away from the Tampa-2 scheme will also be of interest.
Injury update ... Earnest Graham (Ankle; should be ready for the start of training camp) ... Byron Leftwich (Groin; should be ready for the start of training camp) ... Cadillac Williams (Knee; questionable for the start of training camp) ... Maurice Stovall (Back; questionable for the start of training camp) ... Angelo Crowell (Knee; questionable for the start of training camp) ... Byron Storer (Torn knee ligament; out for the season).
Are you ready for the 2009 Fantasy season? If not, we're here for you. Send us an e-mail at DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. We'll respond to as many as we can.
