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Dave Richard

2009 Fantasy outlooks: Washington Redskins

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


The Redskins' offseason was highlighted by an economy-defying $100 million contract with $47 million guaranteed to defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, instantly upgrading the defensive line. That pales in comparison to the garish contract extension they gave cornerback DeAngelo Hall or the contract they gave offensive guard Derrick Dockery to return to the team. In fact, Haynesworth set NFL records for the largest signing bonus ever.

That's a lot of cash. And it's a lot to live up to.

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The Redskins defense needs the help, though. Even though they finished eighth against the run last year and seventh against the pass, the team had the fourth-worst sack total in the NFL with 24. With Haynesworth commanding double teams from opposing offensive lines, the Redskins can now rely on pass-rusher Andre Carter and rookie first-round pick Brian Orakpo to get to the quarterback and make plays. In turn, that will help the secondary, which has always been fairly talented but forced into tough situations because of the lack of pass rush.

So as Haynesworth goes, so the Redskins defense will go. The same can be said of the offense and quarterback Jason Campbell. If he continues to play mediocre football (two games with more than one passing touchdown last year), the offense will struggle. If he can take the next step in his game, then the offense will hold up its end of the bargain. The Redskins have no shortage of receivers and have done a decent enough job to keep their offensive line healthy. Plus, having Clinton Portis run the football is always a big plus for any quarterback.

Campbell's rise will be made easier if second-year receivers Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly can get healthy and contribute. Tight end Chris Cooley should remain an effective weapon while Santana Moss should still be hot one week, cool the next. If one of the second-year wideouts, or someone else on the roster, could open up the offense for Campbell, this team could be good.

Sleeper ... Malcolm Kelly, WR

Malcolm Kelly is the very definition of a sleeper. After being taken in the second round of the 2008 draft, he caught three passes for 18 yards in five games, missing the rest of the year with knee issues. He's had microfracture surgery on the knee and finished the offseason by practicing on a daily basis with the offense. He doesn't offer blazing speed, but he's a big, physical receiver who can eat up 12 yards at a time and be useful in the red zone. The Redskins even have designs on using him as an outside receiver and pushing Antwaan Randle El into the slot, which is more than they can say for fellow second-year wideout Devin Thomas. The only catch is that Kelly is not a lock to stay healthy, and one good strike to his knee might sideline him for a couple of weeks. The Fantasy owners who rolled the dice on Kellen Winslow a few years back shouldn't be afraid to consider Kelly with a final-round pick in drafts this summer.

Fantasy value chart
Player Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Jason Campbell
Running Backs
Clinton Portis
Ladell Betts
Wide Receivers
Santana Moss
Antwaan Randle El
Malcolm Kelly
Devin Thomas
Tight Ends
Chris Cooley
Kicker/DST
Shaun Suisham
Redskins DST

Breakout ... Jason Campbell, QB

If there's going to be a breakout in Washington, Campbell's got the best chance. After all, Fantasy owners are already familiar with the three primary weapons around Campbell in the offense in Portis, Moss and Cooley. His stats might not show it, but Campbell was solid in Jim Zorn's version of the West Coast offense as he didn't throw a single interception through the first two months of the season. And a big reason for the wheels coming off his game late in the year was the offensive line falling apart in Week 14. Before then, he wasn't as good as Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, but he was a pretty dependable Fantasy passer worth using as a backup. His line has since healed, his receiving corps has done the same and Campbell didn't learning a new offense this spring. He even has a chip on his shoulder after it was revealed earlier this offseason that the Redskins were willing to trade him for another passer -- twice. With 2009 being a contract year, Campbell has the tools, scheme and motivation to put it all together. Drafting him to be your backup quarterback with a late-round pick is a sharp idea.

Bust ... Santana Moss, WR

For some NFL receivers, studying their history leading up to Draft Day isn't very dependable. But for Moss, you can check his history and make some fairly obvious assessments. In seven years, Moss has never had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Only once has he scored at least six touchdowns in consecutive seasons ('05-06; he had six last year). And he has yet to play in back-to-back 16-game seasons. Furthermore, the Redskins are pushing second-year receivers Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas to contribute more, potentially taking opportunities away from Moss. He's a risk to draft and a tougher wideout to count on from week to week. If you can, steer clear of the 30-year-old receiver unless you're snaring him to be a top-reserve option.

2008 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
Clinton Portis 370
Chris Cooley 83
Ladell Betts 83
Santana Moss 79

Training camp topics

This is Jim Zorn's second year in Washington, but it might be his last unless the Redskins win. There's a lot of pressure on the entire team to put together a playoff run or else be banished by the itchy trigger finger of owner Daniel Snyder. Since buying the team before the 1999 season, only one head coach has lasted more than two years in Washington: Joe Gibbs, who was there for four years. Not a single one has finished with a record above .500. Suffice to say, Zorn's got his work cut out for him.

Even though the Redskins attempted to spin off Campbell twice this offseason (once for Jay Cutler, once for a draft pick to take Mark Sanchez), the veteran has the luxury of being in the same offense for two years in a row -- a huge change for him since he's been constantly learning offenses since his college days. Campbell should be more comfortable with not only the playbook but Zorn's coaching, so the two will work hand-in-hand to keep their jobs.

The offense still has the same veteran stars -- Portis running the ball, Cooley and Moss catching the ball, Chris Samuels protecting Campbell's blind side -- but it will be the infusion of last year's rookie receivers, Thomas and Kelly, that can put this offense over the top. If one of them can help regularly, it'll benefit everybody. If both can excel, this offense could be special. Training camp will be the first chance we'll see what they can contribute.

Otherwise, all eyes will be on the big man with the big money, Haynesworth. His signing and the drafting of pass-rush specialist Brian Orakpo addressed arguably Washington's biggest need in the offseason. As long as Haynesworth stays healthy and Orakpo lives up to his expectations, they should be much improved in that area while still being strong overall on defense.

Injury update ... Malcolm Kelly (Knee; expected to be ready for the start of training camp) ... Devin Thomas (Hamstring; expected to be ready for the start of training camp).

Are you ready for the 2009 Fantasy season? If not, we're here for you. Send us an e-mail at DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. We'll respond to as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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