June 29, 2009

Will DeAngelo be one-and-done in 2009?

By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
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Many Fantasy owners have dubbed Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams with the "one-year wonder" label. They're hesitant to build their Fantasy rosters around him. They don't trust him to be ultra-productive like he was in 2008.

In one sense, they're correct to do so -- Williams' 1,515-rush-yard, 20-total-touchdown campaign was easily the best of his career. Before his third season, Williams totaled 1,218 rush yards on 265 carries with seven total scores (five rushing). Indeed, Williams wondered for one year.

But Williams was never the lead dog in Carolina like he was last year. He spent 2006 and 2007 as the understudy to DeShaun Foster, splitting reps and not getting a ton of work. He topped 10 carries in just 12 of his first 32 contests, giving him no chance to regularly get into the flow of a game or a full season.

We all know what happened when Foster left the Panthers. Thing is, Williams has not only been consistent year-in and year-out, but improving his game in each of his three years. As a rookie, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry, a total that bumped up to 5.1 yards in his second year and 5.5 yards in 2008. What makes those averages even more impressive is that he's tacked on more carries in three consecutive seasons (121 as a rookie, 144 as a sophomore, 273 last year). Following a stat-packed collegiate career at Memphis and three years at the pro level, you cannot deny that Williams is no one-year wonder when it comes to running the football with a high level of consistency.

He's also surrounded by a mammoth offensive line, which is a common thread in the success of any running back. The Panthers have bookend tackles in Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah and one of the best guards in the league in Travelle Wharton. Those guys up front not only paved the way for Williams to run wild last year, but they also yielded huge stats for Jonathan Stewart, a testament to the work they do. You can bet a basket of Carolina barbecue that the Panthers will utilize that line again this season.

So on the field and in his jersey, Williams has the potential to match what he did in 2008. But there are some other factors that work against him.

One of those factors? History. Williams joined some exclusive company when he totaled 20 touchdowns last year. Before 2008, there were 22 different occasions where a running back scored at least that many in a single season. Of the 22, only four scored more touchdowns the following season (Shaun Alexander, 2004-05; Priest Holmes, 2002-03; Emmitt Smith 1994-95; LaDainian Tomlinson, 2005-06). Additionally, four of the 22 got hurt the following year.

The silver lining here is that a whopping 16 of the 22 posted at least 10 touchdowns the following season with adequate yardage totals. Though every case is different, you can look at these running backs and see the similarities they have with Williams -- versatile, fast and strengthened by an effective offensive line.

Another obstacle in Williams' way is the Panthers' schedule, which is tougher this year.

In 2008, the Panthers rolled up on the downtrodden defenses of the AFC West and NFC North, and in those games Williams totaled 747 yards (45.6 pct. of total yards) and 11 touchdowns (55 pct. of total TDs). In 2009, the Panthers have dates with the AFC East and NFC East, two of the toughest divisions in the league. So instead of facing the Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos and winless Lions, Williams will see the likes of the Patriots, Dolphins, Cowboys and Albert Haynesworth-led Redskins. There are only six semi-soft spots on the schedule this year (two against New Orleans, two against Tampa Bay, vs. Buffalo and at Arizona), and Weeks 13 through 16 might be a killer. Even his first-quarter schedule is tough on the eyes, especially with a Week 4 bye lingering early (his bye was in Week 9 last year).

But perhaps the biggest problem with owning Williams in 2009 is that he'll still be sharing carries with Jonathan Stewart. We saw Williams take in just over 100 more total touches than Stewart last season, and we'd be surprised to see the same thing now simply because Stewart is in his second campaign and won't be handled with kid gloves.

Moreover, Williams' touchdowns were piled on in November and December, months where Stewart might have been plagued with a run-in with the rookie wall judging by his scoring tally (15 for Williams, five for Stewart). No such thing for Stewart this year.

And if you're considering both running backs to ensure your cut of the Panthers run game, it'll cost you -- Williams has been a regular member of the Top 15 in drafts while Stewart has steadily gone between Rounds 5 and 6. So it'll cost you two of your first five or six picks to get both. Thus, backing up Williams properly is another strike against him in 2009.

Williams is going to be interesting to watch this year. He's got the speed, ability, track record and offensive line to at least match the 10-plus touchdown production of the 16 runners who previously totaled 20 scores in a season. But he's also got a nightmare schedule and a fellow running back to put a wet blanket on his potential. Even if you play it safe and consider Williams to fall back to around 10 touchdowns and 1,300 total yards, he's still going to register as one of the best Fantasy rushers this year when it's all said and done.

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