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Dave Richard

2009 Fantasy outlooks: Minnesota Vikings

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


The Vikings' offseason was mild until word began to spread that they were interested in prying Brett Favre out of retirement. Speculation through May and June strongly suggested that Favre would indeed come back and suit up for Minnesota in 2009.

But in late July, Favre turned them down. The former Packer beat the Vikings one last time.

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The Vikings chased Favre so that they could present a passing threat to offset any heavy defensive fronts their running game faces. Last year, Adrian Peterson was great in spite of many eight-in-the-box schemes lined up to stop him, but more was expected. With Favre under center, the Vikings would have had a legitimate threat to connect through the air, making it difficult for defenses to focus solely on Peterson in early-down situations.

Now, the onus on providing that passing threat falls on Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson was on the team last year when they won the NFC North and even started for them in their playoff loss to the Eagles. But he's been embattled for several years, which is why the team traded for Rosenfels and pursued Favre. In fact, Rosenfels is by far the more intriguing option as he's proven on a limited basis that he can move the offense down the field and connect on long gains. Perhaps the Vikings will pin their hopes to him and let him beat defenses deep much like they did last year with Gus Frerotte under center.

Sleeper ... Percy Harvin, WR

Fantasy value chart
Player Draft Day value
Quarterbacks
Sage Rosenfels
Tarvaris Jackson
Running Backs
Adrian Peterson
Chester Taylor
Wide Receivers
Bernard Berrian
Percy Harvin
Sidney Rice
Tight Ends
Visanthe Shiancoe
Kicker/DST
Ryan Longwell
Vikings DST

The Vikings seemingly did a lot of research on Harvin with the exclamation point being a personal huddle with him and head coach Brad Childress just days before the draft. When we see coaches spending extra time with a player before the draft, and then picking him, we can expect an accelerated growth curve. Harvin was a nifty receiver for the Gators even though he ran with the ball more often than he caught the ball. But his 1,304 total yards and 17 total touchdowns were too much for Childress to ignore, and he could easily reprise his role from Florida for the Vikings with a tweak to catch more than run (the Vikings do have Adrian Peterson after all). Considering that Harvin's transition might be smoother than most rookies, he might be a very big surprise.

Breakout ... Visanthe Shiancoe, TE

It's hard to quietly score seven touchdowns over the course of a season, but Shiancoe managed to do it. He also posted career-best stats as the Vikings leaned on him as a solid short-area target. Shiancoe should continue to be effective as he will draw single coverage against safeties and can out-muscle most of them. He'd also benefit from Favre taking over at quarterback as the future Hall of Famer has had a propensity for connecting with his tight end through the years. Best of all, Shiancoe is still a quiet name in Fantasy circles and might even go undrafted in some leagues. That's why you'll get excellent value for him as a late-round pick and a potential starter for your roster.

Bust ... Bernard Berrian, WR

Berrian's best yardage and touchdown totals came in his first season with the Vikings, and much of it can be accredited to Frerotte getting under center and being a human JUGS machine. Berrian averaged an insane 20.1 yards per catch and did so because he caught a lot of deep balls, including a 99-yard gem against his old team, the Bears, in Week 13. It remains to be seen if the deep-ball game will still exist in Minnesota with Rosenfels and Jackson sparring for reps this summer, potentially limiting Berrian's effectiveness. The addition of Harvin also means fewer passes being choreographed into Berrian's hands. Even though his 2008 totals weren't as eye-popping as the elite NFL receivers, he won't take the next step. If you get him, make sure he's your top reserve receiver and nothing more.

2008 Touches Leaders
Player Touches
Adrian Peterson 384
Chester Taylor 147
Bobby Wade 53
Bernard Berrian 52
Visanthe Shiancoe 42

Training camp topics

It's a make-or-break season for Brad Childress as the head coach of the Vikings, which is probably yet another reason why he tried reaching out for Favre. After getting a taste of the postseason last year, the club wants a deeper run. With Peterson running the ball and Jared Allen providing the pass rush, the Vikings have a shot. They're boosted by playing 11 of 16 games indoors and facing off against weaker division rivals as well as the lesser defenses in the NFC West and AFC North (yes, that includes the Ravens and Steelers, but the Bengals and Browns should be soft).

In other words, there are no excuses for the Vikings.

There are some additional issues, the biggest of which being the availability of defensive tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams for the start of the season. The 'Williams Wall' tested positive for a banned drug last year, appealed the process and avoided a suspension. They may not be so lucky to start this year. Even if they miss those first four games (the expected suspension), the team will only face one tough runner in Frank Gore over those four games. It's worth keeping your eyes and ears open to learn of the Williams' fate.

The Vikings offensive line also has some question marks after the team let center Matt Birk fly to the Ravens. They did a nice job in shoring up the right side of the line with the massive Phil Loadholt, but last year's sixth-round pick John Sullivan will get the first crack at replacing Birk -- if he's incapable of being a solid player, that could bring the whole offense down a notch.

With Favre in the rearview mirror, the biggest story of the summer focuses on the quarterbacks left on the Vikings. If Rosenfels can win the job, or if Jackson takes over with a renewed vigor and improved skills, the Vikings will be able to overpower many of their opponents. If neither passer can get the job done, then there will be more of the same offensive issues the team had in 2008, leaving all purple-clad fans to wonder about Favre, "What if ... ?"

Injury update ... Sidney Rice (Knee; expected to be ready for the start of training camp) ... Ray Edwards (Knee; expected to be ready for the start of training camp) ... Jayme Mitchell (Knee; questionable for the start of training camp).

Are you ready for the 2009 Fantasy season? If not, we're here for you. Send us an e-mail at DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. We'll respond to as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Matt Schaub
Schaub doing well in rehab
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
1:03 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Tuesday that Texans QB Matt Schaub, who finished the season on injured reserve following foot surgery, is doing well and his rehab is ahead of schedule. The report says Schaub works out almost every day.
Analysis: This is great news, and we expect Schaub to return at 100 percent in 2012. Continue to monitor what happens with Schaub, but he should be considered a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy QB heading into the season. He is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues on Draft Day.

Lofa Tatupu
Tatupu visits Saints
Lofa Tatupu, LB, SEA
2:36 PM
News: Free agent LB Lofau Tatupu visited with the Saints on Monday, according to NFL.com. The 29-year-old Tatupu sat out the 2011 season. The former Pro Bowl MLB was asked to take a pay cut by the Seahawks after the lockout ended last summer, and subsequently asked for his release. Tatupu was scheduled to visit with the Raiders and Redskins in August, but didn't sign with anyone and fell off the radar for the remainder of the year while he reportedly dealt with a knee injury. Tatupu was scheduled to earn more than $4 million in 2011 before his release by Seattle. The six-year veteran was a second-round pick and has played in three Pro Bowls. But he also started to wear down from 2008-2010, including finishing 2009 on injured reserve with a knee injury. He did start all 16 games in 2010, but had surgery on both knees during the offseason.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Tatupu and where he plays in 2012. When healthy and active he could be a No. 3 Fantasy LB worth a late-round pick in IDP leagues.

Ravens
Flacco, Ravens to work on deal
Ravens, TQB BAL,
12:47 PM
News: The NFL Network reports that the Ravens are set to open contract extension talks with QB Joe Flacco's agent at the NFL Combine next week. The report says both sides aim for a long-term deal. Flacco is entering a contract year in 2012, and Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti recently said Flacco would be the team's starting quarterback for years to come.
Analysis: Flacco's won a lot of games for the Ravens but hasn't taken the next step statistically, even when the team added Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. Flacco has had between 3,610 and 3,622 passing yards and between 20 and 25 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons. But this year his completion percentage and yards per attempt dropped like a rock while his pass attempts hit a career high (542, breaking the previous mark of 499). Flacco fits the bill as a great No. 2 Fantasy QB; though he's finally outfitted with a quality receiving corps, he simply doesn't invoke much confidence as a starting option. Look for him late in drafts.

Jahvid Best
Best 'on pace' for offseason work
Jahvid Best, RB, DET
12:43 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems even though team president Tom Lewand is optimistic. Lewand said Best is "on pace" to be ready for offseason workouts, and he is looking forward to seeing Best and Mikel Leshoure play together. "Jahvid is a special player and he'll be even more dynamic when he can ... share the load with a guy like Mikel in the backfield."
Analysis: We hope Best can return at 100 percent, but he will likely be used as a change of pace rusher and a third-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Best, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick in standard leagues and a mid-round selection in PPR formats since he will likely be used in tandem with Leshoure and possibly Kevin Smith if he returns as a free agent.

Mikel Leshoure
Leshoure's recovery going well
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
12:40 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Mikel Leshoure, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the second week of training camp last year, is close to making a full recovery. At the Lions’ request, Leshoure just moved the final stages of his rehab back to Detroit from Arizona. He’s doing resistance work and light running and is expected to join OTA workouts at some point this offseason. Leshoure looked like he was going to be a key part of the Lions offense when injury struck last August, and the team is anxious to get a read on him this spring. RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems, and even if Best returns it’s clear he’s not an every-down back.
Analysis: Leshoure should be considered a great sleeper heading into 2012, and he is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy RB as long as he's healthy. He has tremendous upside, and he could be a great weapon for the Lions, especially with Best struggling as an every-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Leshoure, but he is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in 2012.

Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

 
 
 
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