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Don't be scared to draft Brady in '09

 
 
 
 

Chiefs safety Bernard Pollard didn't mean to change the fortunes of millions of Fantasy owners -- not to mention several NFL players -- when he crashed into Patriots quarterback Tom Brady's left knee in Week 1 last season.

"It was really an accident," said Pollard. "I can't change what happened. I can't do anything but pray for him and hope he has a speedy recovery."

It's been over 10 months since the injury, and the time has come for Fantasy owners to re-evaluate Brady. Can we trust such an important piece of a Fantasy team after such a major surgery?

The question's been on our mind since Sept. 7, when Brady limped off the field and into the locker room. The time has come to answer it.

Usually tight-lipped about their players' injuries, the Patriots have seen information flow about Brady's recovery from a torn ACL and MCL since he had surgery on it in October. That included word of a second surgery he had to have to clean up an infection stemming from the first procedure, and a cautionary report that suggested that Brady was behind in his rehab (a competing report suggested the opposite). Brady finally spoke out in February and said that his knee was well on the road to recovery.

But the biggest indication that Brady's knee was going to be OK came directly from the Patriots organization when they traded his backup, Matt Cassel, to Kansas City in late February. By doing so, the team essentially admitted that they were comfortable with Brady's progress from the injury. Had they not been OK with Brady's status, the Patriots might not have traded Cassel, or would have signed a suitable replacement -- something they didn't do.

Two months later, Patriots coach Bill Belichick even got in on spreading the good word when he closed a press conference by sharing his thoughts on his quarterback. "Tom's been doing well," Belichick said. "He's been doing his offseason work without any limitations, so he seems to be doing fine." Since then, Brady has taken part in multiple offseason practices with the team and has reportedly thrown the ball while stationary, on the run and in the rain. While he even described his practice throws as rusty, the mere fact that he's able to participate is a big plus.

"I've been playing football for a long time so you don't have to relearn how to do anything, you just have to go out and try to be sharp," Brady said in late May. "It takes a lot of reps and a lot of throwing. You see the defense and you make the throws and there are adjustments you have to make on the field. The football part and understanding our offense -- I mean, obviously, I have a good understanding of that -- it's just a matter of putting it together at a different speed than you can go out and practice in the bubble in March and April. It's nice when team activities are on the field and there's blitzes and you can signal guys and something happens and a guy slips on a route and now you have to throw to a different player. Those are the things that you've got to sharpen up. There's a lot of training camp practices. There's probably 50 training camp practices that we'll have and I think each one of those will be valuable for all of us. I'm looking forward to those because I haven't had the opportunity to do that in quite a while."

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While Brady's injury was serious, the reality is that many big-name quarterbacks have rebounded from torn knee ligaments well -- and with less recovery time.

Following the 2005 regular season, Carson Palmer tore his left ACL in a January playoff game vs. the Steelers. Donovan McNabb tore his right ACL in Week 11 of the 2006 season against the Titans. Philip Rivers tore his right ACL in the 2007 Divisional Playoffs at Indianapolis, then had surgery and played again the following week at New England before undergoing the major procedure typically following the tear.

All three came back to start for their clubs in Week 1 the following season. And all three did exceptionally well.

Quarterback Year
post-ACL
GS PaYds YPA PaTD PaINT
Carson Palmer 2006 16 4,035* 7.76* 28 13
Donovan McNabb 2007 14 3,324 7.03 19 7
Philip Rivers 2008 16 4,009* 8.39* 34* 11
* - career-best stat at the time

While each quarterback's football situation is different, they all recovered quickly from their torn ligaments. Other players at other positions have also returned sooner than expected. That suggests that the rehab and therapy associated with healing from knee injuries is getting better, and Brady more than likely witnessed this first-hand. Moreover, Brady has had far more time than all three of these other passers had to get ready for their upcoming seasons.

But those three quarterbacks don't regularly target Randy Moss and Wes Welker as part of an aggressive passing offense. Sure, the Patriots added Fred Taylor to their deep corps of good-but-not-great running backs, but if the 2007 and 2008 seasons are indicative of anything, it's that this team is willing to pass. On their march to Super Bowl XLII, Brady and his backups totaled 586 pass attempts, and last year New England totaled 534 tosses, with just 11 belonging to No. 12. Eighteen different NFL clubs had fewer attempts in each of the last two seasons.

So don't expect the Patriots to become a running team just because they want to protect Brady's knee. The fact is that they wouldn't put him on the field if he wasn't ready to play. More than likely, they think he's ready to go, and he thinks he'll be ready as well.

If they're confident, you should be too. Remember, Brady might be one year removed from ACL surgery, but he's two years removed from his monster 2007 campaign where he completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for 4,806 yards with 50 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Last year many Fantasy owners clamored for his services and suffered. Why shouldn't it be the same this year? He's rested, healed and ready to leave it all on the field as a top-flight starting Fantasy passer.

"Talk is cheap. I could sit here and tell you guys that I'm going to play until I'm 80, but that doesn't matter," Brady said when asked about how confident he was that he'll be the same player before his injury. "I'm going to do the best that I can do and I'm going to try to be the best leader and the best teammate and supporter of the guys on my team -- it's something I've always enjoyed doing. I'm grateful to have that chance and to be out here. I can't wait to get out and start playing games."

Have a question or a comment for Dave about Fantasy Football? Send your thoughts or questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and he'll get to as many as he can. Be sure to put Attn: Tom Brady in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
Talk Back
Reputation:94
Level:All-Star
Since:Jun 11, 2009

July 8, 2009 1:52 pm
Last season, for the first time in 12 years years I did not take a RB with both of my first two draft picks.  I got silly and took Brady at No. 4 in the first round.  We still made the playoffs but got bounced in the first round.

That being said, I would have no problem taking Brady as my starter, even though I'll forever be back to my RB's in rounds 1 an
...(more)
Reputation:94
Level:All-Star
Since:Sep 12, 2006

July 20, 2009 5:04 am
He might not be a Top 3 Fantasy QB(or he easily could be number 1), but in the end regardless of fantasy, he will be there to win games.

I hate everything related to that propaganda filled Boston-New England area, but you gotta give the man his dues.  He is a winner.  He has this poise and mystique that carries him through the toughest of situations to victory

Ironi
...(more)
 
 
 
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