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Jamey Eisenberg

History is on Brady's side in 2009

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Tom Brady's comeback from last year's torn ACL is the biggest storyline this offseason. But the quarterback should bounce back just fine from the knee injury.

After all, history is on his side.

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There have been four other starting quarterbacks since 2005 who have suffered a torn ACL ... Daunte Culpepper (2005), Carson Palmer (2005), Donovan McNabb (2006) and Philip Rivers (2007). All returned the next season, and three put up tremendous stats in their comeback. Only Culpepper struggled the year after his ACL injury, but he was likely never fully recovered and had the turmoil of going to a new team in Miami from Minnesota.

Palmer, who was hurt in the 2005 playoffs, came back and set a career high in passing yards in 2006. He remained an elite quarterback despite the short recovery.

McNabb was injured during the 2006 regular season in Week 11. He came back ready for Week 1 the following year and continued to post stats consistent with the rest of his career.

Rivers also was hurt in the playoffs in 2007, and he came back like a new quarterback last season. He was previously just an average passer, but he set new career highs in passing yards and touchdowns. Heading into 2009, Rivers is considered one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Brady has already reached that status, but it will be hard for him to set new career highs. Before he was injured in Week 1 last year against Kansas City, Brady was coming off the best season in NFL history when he passed for a record 50 touchdowns along with 4,806 passing yards and just eight interceptions.

Tom Brady, New England
Injured year: 2008
2007 stats: 4,806 passing yards, 50 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 98 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 21 sacks
2009 stats: ???
Philip Rivers, San Diego
Injured year: 2007 postseason
2007 stats: 3,152 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 33 rushing yards, one touchdown, 22 sacks
2008 stats: 4,009 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 84 rushing yards, 25 sacks
Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia
Injured year: 2006
2006 stats: 2,647 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, six interceptions, 212 rushing yards, three touchdowns, 21 sacks*
2007 stats: 3,324 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 236 rushing yards, 44 sacks
* Played 10 games in 2006 before injury
Carson Palmer, Cincinnati
Injured year: 2005 postseason
2005 stats: 3,836 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 41 rushing yards, one touchdown, 19 sacks
2006: 4,035 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 37 rushing yards, 36 sacks
Daunte Culpepper, Minnesota
Injured year: 2005
2004 stats: 4,717 passing yards, 39 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 406 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 46 sacks
2006 stats: 929 passing yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, 20 rushing yards, one touchdown, 21 sacks*
* Only played four games with Miami

But Brady has the opportunity to return as the No. 1 quarterback in all Fantasy leagues, especially since his receiving corps still features Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Brady is excited about his outlook for this season and is confident he can be the same player he was before the injury.

"I'm going to do the best that I can do and I'm going to try to be the best leader and the best teammate and supporter of the guys on my team," Brady said during a recent minicamp. "I'm grateful to have that chance and to be out here. I can't wait to get out and start playing games."

Brady will have some obstacles to overcome, and it's not going to be easy to forget the knee injury. Remember, Brady was hurt after following through on a throw when Chiefs' safety Bernard Pollard fell into his leg.

That's similar to what happened to Palmer in the playoffs against Pittsburgh when Kimo Von Oelhoffen injured Palmer's knee. He offered some advice to Brady.

"You've got to get over the mental obstacle of stepping into your throw when someone's coming at you," Palmer said in the Sporting News. "I was throwing off my back foot for a while after I came back. It took me a while before I could get over that feeling.

"I would just tell him to be prepared for the mental obstacles when he gets back on the practice field -- and the game field. You have to get over being uneasy about people being down around your feet and get over feeling like you need to step out of the way to protect yourself."

One problem for Brady this year could be taking too many sacks. He has to rediscover his pocket awareness and regain his movement under pressure. There's also the fear of holding the ball too long, which could lead to rushed throws or going down at the first sign of trouble.

Palmer went from 19 sacks to 36 the year after the injury. McNabb's sack total also jumped from 21 to 44, including a 12-sack game against the Giants in 2007.

Brady, who was sacked 21 times in 2007, isn't worried about getting hurt again, but he is aware of the hurdles he will have to overcome. The good thing is he's moved past the injury.

"I've never really focused on it," Brady said. "I think I felt bad for myself that night and then I think I moved on after that. Since then it's about trying to get better."

We expect Brady to get better, especially after hearing all the reports about his comeback this offseason in New England. He's worth drafting as a No. 1 Fantasy option again with a pick beginning in Round 2.

The recovery from the torn ACL is a concern, but Brady should rebound just fine like Palmer, McNabb and Rivers. They have shown that quarterbacks can bounce back quickly from what was once considered a career-threatening injury.

Have a question or a comment for Jamey about Fantasy Football? Send your thoughts or questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and he'll get to as many as he can. Be sure to put Attn: Quarterback ACLs in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Matt Schaub
Schaub doing well in rehab
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
1:03 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Tuesday that Texans QB Matt Schaub, who finished the season on injured reserve following foot surgery, is doing well and his rehab is ahead of schedule. The report says Schaub works out almost every day.
Analysis: This is great news, and we expect Schaub to return at 100 percent in 2012. Continue to monitor what happens with Schaub, but he should be considered a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy QB heading into the season. He is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues on Draft Day.

Lofa Tatupu
Tatupu visits Saints
Lofa Tatupu, LB, SEA
2:36 PM
News: Free agent LB Lofau Tatupu visited with the Saints on Monday, according to NFL.com. The 29-year-old Tatupu sat out the 2011 season. The former Pro Bowl MLB was asked to take a pay cut by the Seahawks after the lockout ended last summer, and subsequently asked for his release. Tatupu was scheduled to visit with the Raiders and Redskins in August, but didn't sign with anyone and fell off the radar for the remainder of the year while he reportedly dealt with a knee injury. Tatupu was scheduled to earn more than $4 million in 2011 before his release by Seattle. The six-year veteran was a second-round pick and has played in three Pro Bowls. But he also started to wear down from 2008-2010, including finishing 2009 on injured reserve with a knee injury. He did start all 16 games in 2010, but had surgery on both knees during the offseason.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Tatupu and where he plays in 2012. When healthy and active he could be a No. 3 Fantasy LB worth a late-round pick in IDP leagues.

Ravens
Flacco, Ravens to work on deal
Ravens, TQB BAL,
12:47 PM
News: The NFL Network reports that the Ravens are set to open contract extension talks with QB Joe Flacco's agent at the NFL Combine next week. The report says both sides aim for a long-term deal. Flacco is entering a contract year in 2012, and Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti recently said Flacco would be the team's starting quarterback for years to come.
Analysis: Flacco's won a lot of games for the Ravens but hasn't taken the next step statistically, even when the team added Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. Flacco has had between 3,610 and 3,622 passing yards and between 20 and 25 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons. But this year his completion percentage and yards per attempt dropped like a rock while his pass attempts hit a career high (542, breaking the previous mark of 499). Flacco fits the bill as a great No. 2 Fantasy QB; though he's finally outfitted with a quality receiving corps, he simply doesn't invoke much confidence as a starting option. Look for him late in drafts.

Jahvid Best
Best 'on pace' for offseason work
Jahvid Best, RB, DET
12:43 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems even though team president Tom Lewand is optimistic. Lewand said Best is "on pace" to be ready for offseason workouts, and he is looking forward to seeing Best and Mikel Leshoure play together. "Jahvid is a special player and he'll be even more dynamic when he can ... share the load with a guy like Mikel in the backfield."
Analysis: We hope Best can return at 100 percent, but he will likely be used as a change of pace rusher and a third-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Best, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick in standard leagues and a mid-round selection in PPR formats since he will likely be used in tandem with Leshoure and possibly Kevin Smith if he returns as a free agent.

Mikel Leshoure
Leshoure's recovery going well
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
12:40 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Mikel Leshoure, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the second week of training camp last year, is close to making a full recovery. At the Lions’ request, Leshoure just moved the final stages of his rehab back to Detroit from Arizona. He’s doing resistance work and light running and is expected to join OTA workouts at some point this offseason. Leshoure looked like he was going to be a key part of the Lions offense when injury struck last August, and the team is anxious to get a read on him this spring. RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems, and even if Best returns it’s clear he’s not an every-down back.
Analysis: Leshoure should be considered a great sleeper heading into 2012, and he is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy RB as long as he's healthy. He has tremendous upside, and he could be a great weapon for the Lions, especially with Best struggling as an every-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Leshoure, but he is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in 2012.

Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

 
 
 
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