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Jamey Eisenberg

2009 Draft Prep: Brady, Moss will shine in '09

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


The last two times Tom Brady walked off the field haven't been good.

Last year it was against Kansas City following a devastating knee injury in Week 1. The year before that it was after getting physically pummeled by the Giants in a Super Bowl loss.

Fantasy Football - 2009 Draft Prep: Brady, Moss will shine in '09 : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

This year will be better. This year Brady will return to his place as the No. 1 quarterback in the NFL. The prediction here is Brady will be the best Fantasy quarterback again. Along with that, we're predicting Randy Moss will return as the No. 1 Fantasy wide receiver.

The dynamic duo is back, and Moss has already predicted they will be better than they were two years ago. In 2007, Brady set the NFL record for passing touchdowns in a season with 50, and Moss set the NFL record for receiving touchdowns in a season with 23.

Can they duplicate those stats? Probably not, but you should be willing to take the chance it could happen or at least come close.

Start with Brady, who is the key to it all. There should be some concern in his comeback from last year's torn ACL. After all, he hasn't played a game for a full 12 months, and there could be some rust. As we pointed out earlier this offseason, he might have issues with pocket awareness and mobility, but most quarterbacks coming back from a torn ACL have been successful.

And his timing with his receivers should be OK. In fact, Brady, Moss and Wes Welker have worked together more during this offseason than they ever have before due to past injuries.

Fantasy Football - 2009 Draft Prep: Brady, Moss will shine in '09 : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

"I feel we've gotten better,'' Welker told Sports Illustrated this offseason. "Back in '07, Randy and I were in our first year here, and I don't know about Randy, but I was worried about where the hell I was supposed to line up a lot of that season. Now, with so many touches over the last two years, the offense is second nature to us. This is a complicated offense, and getting to know it takes time. But now I think we both know it well, and we're on the same page with Tom on every snap. Our goal is to continue to get better. I hope we can. We've got some good new weapons here, and it'll be great for us to get on the field together to see what we can do.''

This is Brady's best supporting cast since he's been in the NFL. Joey Galloway, 37, is far past his prime but could be a great No. 3 wide receiver behind Moss and Welker, who has 223 catches for 2,340 and 11 touchdowns the past two seasons. And Greg Lewis could also prove a valuable weapon as the No. 4 option.

At tight end, Benjamin Watson returns, but the Patriots added quality veterans in Chris Baker and Alex Smith, who are good targets. The running backs also can catch the ball, especially Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris. And we know the Patriots want to throw more than run anyway based on what we saw in 2007.

Last year, Drew Brees was the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in a standard-scoring league. He threw for 5,069 yards and tied Philip Rivers for the most passing touchdowns with 34.

In 2007, Brady passed for 4,806 yards, 50 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He also had two rushing touchdowns. A safe projection for Brady this season would be about 4,500 passing yards and 34 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. That would put him in contention for the No. 1 spot.

His main competition going into the year is Brees and Peyton Manning. The Saints have said they want to run more, which will lower Brees' stats. And Manning has to adjust to playing without Marvin Harrison for the first time in his career and also a new coaching staff. Like Brady, they each have issues to overcome, although not as severe.

But we're counting on Brady to return to form and be the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback. And because of that, Moss will thrive as well, and Brady knows it.

"It's easy to have great chemistry with Randy. He's the best receiver, probably, ever to play the game," Brady said to the media at training camp. "You just have to throw it where he's running because he's usually open. We spent a lot of great time this offseason with Wes, and Joey was here a lot and Greg was here a lot. I feel like we got off to a really good start. Randy, when he's out here, is one of the hardest working guys we have, and he's so fun to have on the team. He's a great teammate, and we have a great relationship. There's been a lot of trust that's been built up over the last few years, and I look forward to being back on the field with him."

Moss was the No. 9 Fantasy wide receiver last year in a standard-scoring league when he finished with 69 catches for 1,008 yards and 11 touchdowns playing with Matt Cassel. But with Brady in 2007, Moss had 98 catches for 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns.

Moss has played 11 seasons and has eight years with double digits in touchdowns. He has five years with over 80 catches and seven years with over 1,200 receiving yards.

He has consistency. He has the best quarterback in the NFL back under center. And he remains motivated to win that elusive Super Bowl.

Moss will overtake Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and all other challengers. He will be the No. 1 Fantasy wide receiver this year.

Moss said earlier this offseason he's excited about the possibilities for this offense. You should be also, and Brady and Moss are the top players to target at their respective positions in 2009.

Tom Brady set the NFL record for touchdown passes in a season with 50 in 2007. He didn't get a chance to play a full game in 2008 because of a knee injury suffered in Week 1. There have been 15 other times where a quarterback has thrown for at least 35 touchdowns in a season. On average, those passing touchdowns decreased by over 17 the next season. Only Brett Favre increased his total the following season from 38 touchdowns in 1995 to 39 in 1996. We'll find out how Brady will do this year, his first season following his career performance, but even if he hits the average decline and only passes for 33 touchdowns that would be an impressive stat. Below is how all the quarterbacks who passed for at least 35 touchdowns in a season have done the year following their big season.
Year Player TDs TDs the next season
2007 Tom Brady, NE 50 DNP (knee)
2004 Peyton Manning, IND 49 28
1984 Dan Marino, MIA 48 30
1986 Dan Marino, MIA 44 26
1999 Kurt Warner, STL 41 21 (11 games)
1996 Brett Favre, GB 39 35
2004 Daunte Culpepper, MIN 39 6 (seven games)
1995 Brett Favre, GB 38 39
1998 Steve Young, SF 36 3 (three games)
1999 Steve Beuerlein, CAR 36 19
2001 Kurt Warner, STL 36 3 (seven games)
1961 George Blanda, HOU 36 27
2007 Tony Romo, DAL 36 26 (13 games)
1963 Y.A. Tittle, NYG 36 10
1997 Brett Favre, GB 35 31
1994 Steve Young, SF 35 20 (11 games)
There have been 26 times where a wide receiver has caught at least 15 touchdowns in a season. Randy Moss has done it four times in his career, and he set the NFL record for receiving touchdowns in a season the last time he played with Tom Brady in 2007. Only Jerry Rice has accomplished the feat more times than Moss with five years of at least 15 scores. Moss has the chance to tie Rice this year, and it's a safe prediction he will reach that total. Moss has played 11 seasons in the NFL and has eight years with double digits in touchdowns, including last year when he caught 11. Below is a look at the single-season list of touchdown catches in NFL history.
Name TDs Year
Randy Moss, NE 23 2007
Jerry Rice, SF 22 1987
Mark Clayton, MIA 18 1984
Sterling Sharpe, GB 18 1994
Carl Pickens, CIN 17 1995
Chris Carter, MIN 17 1995
Randy Moss, MIN 17 1998
Randy Moss, MIN 17 2003
Elroy Hirsch, LA 17 1951
Bill Groman, HOU 17 1961
Don Hutson, GB 17 1942
Jerry Rice, SF 17 1989
Terrell Owens, SF 16 2001
Muhsin Muhammad, CAR 16 2004
Braylon Edwards, CLE 16 2007
Art Powell, OAK 16 1963
Jerry Rice, SF 15 1995
Randy Moss, MIN 15 2000
Marvin Harrison, IND 15 2004
Sonny Randle, STL 15 1960
Marvin Harrison, IND 15 2004
Terrell Owens, DAL 15 2007
Cloyce Box, DET 15 1952
Andre Rison, ATL 15 1993
Jerry Rice, SF 15 1993
Jerry Rice, SF 15 1986

Have a question or a comment for Jamey about Fantasy Football? Send your thoughts or questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and he'll get to as many as he can. Be sure to put Attn: Patriots in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

Kevin Smith
Smith wants return to Lions
Kevin Smith, RB, DET
2/10/2012
News: According to mlive.com, impending free agent RB Kevin Smith would like to return to the Lions in 2012. Smith, 25, re-signed with Detroit last November and had four starts in seven games. He finished the regular season with 72 carries for 356 yards and four touchdowns, plus had 22 receptions for 179 yards and three scores. "In every interview that I've done, even though I'm a free agent, I've referred to the team and me as us," Smith said. "I'm on the Lions roster in my opinion until I'm not on the Lions roster. That says it all."
Analysis: Smith is a former third-round selection by Detroit in 2008. He showed promise as a rookie, gaining 976 yards and scoring eight touchdowns on 238 carries. He started 13 games in 2009 before suffering a season-ending injury to his left knee. He rushed for 747 yards and four touchdowns prior to his injury. Smith was phased out of the offense with the arrival of Jahvid Best in 2010. Detroit decided not to make him an offer when he became a restricted free agent after that season. After Best sustained a season-ending concussion last season, Detroit re-signed Smith. We'll find out if he can return to the Lions, who also have second-year RB Mikel Leshoure, who also is recovering from a season-ending Achilles tendon injury sustained in the preseason. Keep an eye on what happens with Smith, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick if he's back in Detroit.

 
 
 
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