2009 Draft Prep: Brady, Moss will shine in '09
By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow JameyFollow CBS Fantasy Football
The last two times Tom Brady walked off the field haven't been good.
Last year it was against Kansas City following a devastating knee injury in Week 1. The year before that it was after getting physically pummeled by the Giants in a Super Bowl loss.
This year will be better. This year Brady will return to his place as the No. 1 quarterback in the NFL. The prediction here is Brady will be the best Fantasy quarterback again. Along with that, we're predicting Randy Moss will return as the No. 1 Fantasy wide receiver.
The dynamic duo is back, and Moss has already predicted they will be better than they were two years ago. In 2007, Brady set the NFL record for passing touchdowns in a season with 50, and Moss set the NFL record for receiving touchdowns in a season with 23.
Can they duplicate those stats? Probably not, but you should be willing to take the chance it could happen or at least come close.
Start with Brady, who is the key to it all. There should be some concern in his comeback from last year's torn ACL. After all, he hasn't played a game for a full 12 months, and there could be some rust. As we pointed out earlier this offseason, he might have issues with pocket awareness and mobility, but most quarterbacks coming back from a torn ACL have been successful.
And his timing with his receivers should be OK. In fact, Brady, Moss and Wes Welker have worked together more during this offseason than they ever have before due to past injuries.
"I feel we've gotten better,'' Welker told Sports Illustrated this offseason. "Back in '07, Randy and I were in our first year here, and I don't know about Randy, but I was worried about where the hell I was supposed to line up a lot of that season. Now, with so many touches over the last two years, the offense is second nature to us. This is a complicated offense, and getting to know it takes time. But now I think we both know it well, and we're on the same page with Tom on every snap. Our goal is to continue to get better. I hope we can. We've got some good new weapons here, and it'll be great for us to get on the field together to see what we can do.''
This is Brady's best supporting cast since he's been in the NFL. Joey Galloway, 37, is far past his prime but could be a great No. 3 wide receiver behind Moss and Welker, who has 223 catches for 2,340 and 11 touchdowns the past two seasons. And Greg Lewis could also prove a valuable weapon as the No. 4 option.
At tight end, Benjamin Watson returns, but the Patriots added quality veterans in Chris Baker and Alex Smith, who are good targets. The running backs also can catch the ball, especially Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris. And we know the Patriots want to throw more than run anyway based on what we saw in 2007.
Last year, Drew Brees was the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in a standard-scoring league. He threw for 5,069 yards and tied Philip Rivers for the most passing touchdowns with 34.
In 2007, Brady passed for 4,806 yards, 50 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He also had two rushing touchdowns. A safe projection for Brady this season would be about 4,500 passing yards and 34 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. That would put him in contention for the No. 1 spot.
His main competition going into the year is Brees and Peyton Manning. The Saints have said they want to run more, which will lower Brees' stats. And Manning has to adjust to playing without Marvin Harrison for the first time in his career and also a new coaching staff. Like Brady, they each have issues to overcome, although not as severe.
But we're counting on Brady to return to form and be the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback. And because of that, Moss will thrive as well, and Brady knows it.
"It's easy to have great chemistry with Randy. He's the best receiver, probably, ever to play the game," Brady said to the media at training camp. "You just have to throw it where he's running because he's usually open. We spent a lot of great time this offseason with Wes, and Joey was here a lot and Greg was here a lot. I feel like we got off to a really good start. Randy, when he's out here, is one of the hardest working guys we have, and he's so fun to have on the team. He's a great teammate, and we have a great relationship. There's been a lot of trust that's been built up over the last few years, and I look forward to being back on the field with him."
Moss was the No. 9 Fantasy wide receiver last year in a standard-scoring league when he finished with 69 catches for 1,008 yards and 11 touchdowns playing with Matt Cassel. But with Brady in 2007, Moss had 98 catches for 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns.
Moss has played 11 seasons and has eight years with double digits in touchdowns. He has five years with over 80 catches and seven years with over 1,200 receiving yards.
He has consistency. He has the best quarterback in the NFL back under center. And he remains motivated to win that elusive Super Bowl.
Moss will overtake Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and all other challengers. He will be the No. 1 Fantasy wide receiver this year.
Moss said earlier this offseason he's excited about the possibilities for this offense. You should be also, and Brady and Moss are the top players to target at their respective positions in 2009.
| Tom Brady set the NFL record for touchdown passes in a season with 50 in 2007. He didn't get a chance to play a full game in 2008 because of a knee injury suffered in Week 1. There have been 15 other times where a quarterback has thrown for at least 35 touchdowns in a season. On average, those passing touchdowns decreased by over 17 the next season. Only Brett Favre increased his total the following season from 38 touchdowns in 1995 to 39 in 1996. We'll find out how Brady will do this year, his first season following his career performance, but even if he hits the average decline and only passes for 33 touchdowns that would be an impressive stat. Below is how all the quarterbacks who passed for at least 35 touchdowns in a season have done the year following their big season. | |||
| Year | Player | TDs | TDs the next season |
| 2007 | Tom Brady, NE | 50 | DNP (knee) |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning, IND | 49 | 28 |
| 1984 | Dan Marino, MIA | 48 | 30 |
| 1986 | Dan Marino, MIA | 44 | 26 |
| 1999 | Kurt Warner, STL | 41 | 21 (11 games) |
| 1996 | Brett Favre, GB | 39 | 35 |
| 2004 | Daunte Culpepper, MIN | 39 | 6 (seven games) |
| 1995 | Brett Favre, GB | 38 | 39 |
| 1998 | Steve Young, SF | 36 | 3 (three games) |
| 1999 | Steve Beuerlein, CAR | 36 | 19 |
| 2001 | Kurt Warner, STL | 36 | 3 (seven games) |
| 1961 | George Blanda, HOU | 36 | 27 |
| 2007 | Tony Romo, DAL | 36 | 26 (13 games) |
| 1963 | Y.A. Tittle, NYG | 36 | 10 |
| 1997 | Brett Favre, GB | 35 | 31 |
| 1994 | Steve Young, SF | 35 | 20 (11 games) |
| There have been 26 times where a wide receiver has caught at least 15 touchdowns in a season. Randy Moss has done it four times in his career, and he set the NFL record for receiving touchdowns in a season the last time he played with Tom Brady in 2007. Only Jerry Rice has accomplished the feat more times than Moss with five years of at least 15 scores. Moss has the chance to tie Rice this year, and it's a safe prediction he will reach that total. Moss has played 11 seasons in the NFL and has eight years with double digits in touchdowns, including last year when he caught 11. Below is a look at the single-season list of touchdown catches in NFL history. | ||
| Name | TDs | Year |
| Randy Moss, NE | 23 | 2007 |
| Jerry Rice, SF | 22 | 1987 |
| Mark Clayton, MIA | 18 | 1984 |
| Sterling Sharpe, GB | 18 | 1994 |
| Carl Pickens, CIN | 17 | 1995 |
| Chris Carter, MIN | 17 | 1995 |
| Randy Moss, MIN | 17 | 1998 |
| Randy Moss, MIN | 17 | 2003 |
| Elroy Hirsch, LA | 17 | 1951 |
| Bill Groman, HOU | 17 | 1961 |
| Don Hutson, GB | 17 | 1942 |
| Jerry Rice, SF | 17 | 1989 |
| Terrell Owens, SF | 16 | 2001 |
| Muhsin Muhammad, CAR | 16 | 2004 |
| Braylon Edwards, CLE | 16 | 2007 |
| Art Powell, OAK | 16 | 1963 |
| Jerry Rice, SF | 15 | 1995 |
| Randy Moss, MIN | 15 | 2000 |
| Marvin Harrison, IND | 15 | 2004 |
| Sonny Randle, STL | 15 | 1960 |
| Marvin Harrison, IND | 15 | 2004 |
| Terrell Owens, DAL | 15 | 2007 |
| Cloyce Box, DET | 15 | 1952 |
| Andre Rison, ATL | 15 | 1993 |
| Jerry Rice, SF | 15 | 1993 |
| Jerry Rice, SF | 15 | 1986 |
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