Three of them had over 1,200 rushing yards, eight had at least five touchdowns and the highest-drafted, most-touted running back in the class didn't touch either category. In fact, three of the first four running backs drafted in 2008 didn't play well, leaving the runners picked in Rounds 2 and 3 as the Fantasy gems. Owners who won their leagues in 2008 were likely bragging about the awesome mid- to late-round picks and/or waiver-wire additions of these first-year players who helped them get there.
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As such, owners are now targeting 2009's rookie running backs as either viable starting options or late-round steals because of last year's crop of show stoppers. Nevermind the fact that there were six fewer rookie rushers taken this year over last year, or that only six running backs were taken within the first 110 picks (11 in that span last year). Now more than ever, Fantasy owners are in love with rookie running backs -- but those who are will be headed for heartbreak.
Let's start with the obvious: Every year is different, and every player is different. Just because you draft a rookie doesn't mean he'll perform like Matt Forte, Steve Slaton or Chris Johnson. As with all players, you have to survey the situation he's in before trusting him to be a useful draft choice.
That leads in to the next issue: Remember those six rookie running backs taken within the first 110 picks back in April? All of them are without full-time work. Knowshon Moreno will split reps with LaMont Jordan, Correll Buckhalter and Peyton Hillis in Denver; Beanie Wells will lose touches to Tim Hightower in Arizona; and Donald Brown will share the ball with Joseph Addai in Indianapolis. Those are the backs people are targeting -- rookies LeSean McCoy, Shonn Greene and Glen Coffee are primary backups who are guaranteed nothing more than a handful of reps each week.
Fantasy Football - 2009 Draft Prep: Don't reach for rookie RBs : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com
This isn't like last year where Forte was handed the starting job in Chicago, as was McFadden in Oakland and Kevin Smith in Detroit. Classmates Johnson and Slaton also wasted little time earning prominent playing time in Tennessee and Houston, respectively. Expecting a sizable workload and loads of yardage and touchdowns each week is too much to expect with these NFL newcomers.
As someone drafting a Fantasy team, you should be familiar with all of the prominent rookies this year at running back. After all, rookie running backs assimilate to the NFL game faster than players at other positions. But don't put Moreno, Wells or Brown in your crosshairs too early -- there are far promising players, running backs or otherwise, that deserve your draft choices before them this summer.
Do you run the risk of losing out on these rookies to other owners if you keep them off your wish list until Round 6? Sure, but if other owners are going after these rookies then other players are falling into your lap at a great value. Either way, you'll do well in your draft so long as you don't reach for this year's rookie rushers.
Have a question or a comment about rookie running backs for Dave? Send your thoughts or questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and he'll get to as many as he can. Be sure to put Attn: Rookie RBs in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.
