Forgot Log-in or  Password? |  Help  Not a member, Register Now!
      
Fantasy Football Today
Gameday Inactives
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Get Your Draft Board
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Red Zone Stats
Teams
Schedules
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
Office Pool Manager
Playoff Challenge
Fantasy Baseball Today
2013 Draft Prep Guide
Downloadable Draft Kit
Mock Drafts
Player News
Stats
Players
Depth Charts
Roster Trends
Columns
Injury Report
Rankings
Projections
Teams
Schedules
Probable Pitchers
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Prize Leagues
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injuries
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Message Boards
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
Downloadable Draft Kit
Player News
Stats
Players
Columns
Injury Report
Projections
Rankings
Teams
Schedules
Mock Drafts
Scores
Standings
Fantasy Games
Commissioner
Free
Premium
No Fantasy Teams Found
 
 

2009 Draft Prep: Is 'The Burner' burnt out?

Jamey Eisenberg
Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Michael Turner said last year was like his rookie season, and who can blame him for feeling that way.

After spending four years playing behind LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego, Turner went to Atlanta as a free agent and became a star.

He showed off his skills with 1,699 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns and finished as the No. 2 running back in the majority of Fantasy leagues. It was exactly the type of year Turner hoped for, and the Falcons couldn't have asked for a better payout on their investment.

CBSSports.com's Draft Central
Download your free Draft Kits, sign up for our Fantasy newsletters, participate in mock drafts and much more!
Visit Fantasy Football Draft Central!
Practice with our mock drafts!

But Falcons coach Mike Smith may have overused Turner in his breakout 2008 season, riding him to an improbable playoff run.

He led the NFL with 376 attempts and was the centerpiece in Atlanta's offense with rookie Matt Ryan learning the ropes under center. But every running back who has carried the ball at least 370 times in the past 20 years has suffered the following season.

Turner is hoping to break that streak, but history is not on his side. It could be a tough year for Turner, and it's something to consider on Draft Day.

"I'm not concerned about that," Turner said in a recent phone interview with CBSSports.com. "It's football. I can't sit there and count the carries, and neither can the coaches. We just have to play and see what happens."

The "Curse of 370," which was first pointed out by Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz in 2004, has a long history. Since 1988, 17 running backs have had at least 370 carries. None have improved their rushing yards or touchdowns in the following season, and eight (Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Curtis Martin, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis and Barry Foster) suffered injuries, some even career-ending.

Ricky Williams also had a brief retirement after two consecutive seasons of at least 380 carries in 2002-03, citing wear-and-tear issues. The average decline for the previous 16 running backs with at least 370 carries has been 771 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, which would put Turner at under 1,000 yards rushing and seven touchdowns this season.

Turner isn't worried about a breakdown. His previous high for carries in a season was 80 playing behind Tomlinson in 2006, which is why he feels like his career is just getting started.

3 - combo alternative
3 - combo alternative

"I spent four years being a backup, so I don't have much wear and tear," Turner said. "I feel fresh. I feel like this is just my second or third year in the league."

Turner can point to Tomlinson as a beacon of hope. Tomlinson is one of the few running backs who made it through consecutive 16-game seasons coming off a 370-carry campaign in 2002, and he only suffered a slight decline in production. Emmitt Smith had productive years twice after 370 carry seasons in 1992 and 1995, and Eric Dickerson also played well after a 370-carry year in 1988.

Turner can still be an effective and dynamic running back this season. He has a tremendous offensive line and an improved offense with Matt Ryan, Roddy White and now Tony Gonzalez.

Turner also benefits from being one of the best goal-line options in the NFL. He led the league with 70 carries inside the red zone last year and came away from 15 touchdowns inside the 20-yard line.

He worked hard this offseason to remain in shape and also wants to improve as a receiver. He only had six catches for 41 receiving yards last season.

"I just have to continue to bring the same intensity and not get too comfortable," Turner said.

Turner also has to hope he gets to face some poor run defenses like he did last year. He dominated Detroit, Kansas City, Green Bay, Oakland and St. Louis, which were among the worst run defenses in the league, for 792 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. He also ran over Carolina, San Diego and Tampa Bay, but the majority of his success came against those other teams.

This year, he doesn't face one team ranked in the bottom 10 run defenses based on last year's totals. It could be a long year.

You should still draft Turner in the first round in all Fantasy leagues. He is a featured back and has the chance to score plenty of touchdowns for an explosive offense.

But he will likely see a decline in production based on his carries from last season and could struggle with the tougher schedule. He should not be drafted No. 1 overall or even in the Top 3 with Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Matt Forte all better options.

All we're saying is to be careful with Turner on Draft Day. If you reach for him too high you could be disappointed.

Have a question or a comment for Jamey about Fantasy Football? Send your thoughts or questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and he'll get to as many as he can. Be sure to put Attn: Michael Turner in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

  •  
 
CBSSports Facebook Twitter
COMMENTS
Conversation powered by Livefyre
 
 
Player News
Robert Griffin III
Griffin to be ready by camp?
Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
5/23/2013
News: Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan suggested Thursday that quarterback Robert Griffin III has a chance to be ready for the start of training camp. "We're hoping," he said. "He's working extremely hard." Shanahan also said he wouldn't be comfortable starting Griffin without some offseason or preseason work. Griffin was spotted by NFL Network dropping back on passes to receivers while wearing a helmet along with a brace on his right knee on Thursday.
Analysis: It would be incredible for RG3 to be ready to go by late July, less than seven months after getting hurt. If the Redskins approach the injury with the long-term picture in mind then they might not rush him back unless they were convinced he was totally healthy. That seems risky, but for now any positive progress is great for prospective Fantasy owners. Here's a gameplan: Draft Griffin with a pick in Round 7 or 8 and pair him with Carson Palmer in the final rounds. Palmer has a great early-season schedule and the Cardinals take on the Panthers in Week 5 when the Redskins are on bye. We'll keep you posted on RG3.

Pierre Garcon
Shanahan: Garcon had surgery
Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS
5/23/2013
News: Mike Shanahan disclosed Thursday that wide receiver Pierre Garcon had chest surgery this offseason, but the Washington Times clarified it as a minor procedure on his labrum, which is in the shoulder . It appears Garcon is not a candidate to miss any serious playing time, however. "I think he's really unbelievable. He's come back so fast ..." Shanahan said of his receiver. "lifting weights he shouldn't be able to lift."
Analysis: Garcon is also still battling a toe injury that capsized much of his first year in D.C. As long as he's healthy for the start of the season he's got plenty of upside to offer Fantasy owners. Garcon finished last year averaging 14.4 yards per catch, the second-highest average in his career, but he had a four-year-low 44 receptions with a three-year-worst four scores. Staying healthy is obviously the most important thing he can do to keep him relevant in Fantasy Football but one recurrence of the toe injury could wipe out several games. If he can stay upright -- and assuming quarterback Robert Griffin III is healthy with his knee -- Garcon can be considered a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a mid-round pick.

James Casey
Casey has knee surgery
James Casey, TE, PHI
5/23/2013
News: USA Today reports that Eagles tight end James Casey will undergo arthroscopic surgery to clean out loose cartilage his right knee and will be out of action for the rest of the spring. A team spokesman said Casey should be ready to go by the start of training camp. Casey signed a three-year deal with $14.5 million as one of the first additions for the Eagles in a busy opening few days in free agency. The former Texans fullback/tight end is expected to play a key role in coach Chip Kelly's offense.
Analysis: Casey had career-highs with 34 receptions, 330 yards and three touchdowns last year, numbers that could spike with the Eagles because of the expected design of the offense and the up-tempo style that will result in more snaps. Like any player getting used to Kelly's offense, Casey would surely benefit from more reps through the rest of organized team activities and minicamp, so being sidelined for the next month isn't ideal. Still, if all goes as well as planned, Casey should get plenty of time on the field in July and August as long as he's healthy. He's not worth drafting in most leagues, but Casey is someone to monitor as a potential waiver wire addition if he's fine as expected following this procedure.

Peyton Manning
Manning to CBS: My arm is stronger
Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
5/23/2013
News: In an exclusive Q&A with CBSSports.com NFL Columnist Pete Prisco, Peyton Manning admitted to being nervous about his arm as far back as June 2011 when he had a hard time throwing at all, then again last season when he forced some things in a road game at Atlanta. But a year removed from rehabbing his arm, Manning sounds confident in his skills. "I feel much more comfortable than I was last year. I am stronger than I was last year. I am throwing the ball better now in May of 2013 than I did in May of 2012 -- significantly better," he said. "I got better throughout the season. I am not doing the monthly update reports anymore. I am past that."
Analysis: The Broncos will attempt to move into a more up-tempo approach this season and added Wes Welker to an already stacked receiving corps. Manning should be in for a very good season, perhaps even better than the one he had last year. Manning is a candidate for 300 yards and at least two scores every week. He should be considered an elite passer worth a pick between the middle of Round 2 and the end of Round 3, depending on your league's size and scoring system.

Trent Richardson
Richardson misses practice
Trent Richardson, RB, CLE
5/23/2013
News: Browns coach Rob Chudzinski comfirmed running back Trent Richardson missed practice Thursday with a lower leg muscle pull. "It's precautionary," Chudzinski said. "We are holding him out. He may miss minicamp in a week and a half. I'm not sure, we'll just take it day-by-day."
Analysis: The Browns can't take chances with their prized running back, particularly since he'll be featured in an offense that will lean heavily on him. Richardson established himself as one of the top young running backs in the league last season with 267 carries for 950 yards with 11 touchdowns and another 51 catches for 367 yards and a score. He should be able to better those stats this season as long as he's healthy. You're taking him with a Top 5 pick.

Wes Welker
Welker expects catches to drop
Wes Welker, WR, DEN
5/23/2013
News: The Denver Post reports that new Broncos receiver Wes Welker doesn't expect to reach his average for receptions, which was 112 over the past six seasons with the Patriots. "If I have to catch 112 balls, that probably means we're in trouble," Welker said. "(The catches) are not the goal," Welker said. "The goal is to go out there and help your team win games. However many catches that is, however many blocks that takes, however many routes I've got to run, whatever. I think we all feel the same way about that." The report says that in New England, the Patriots don't feature their outside receivers. In recent years, they have become a tight end-slot attack. Not so the Broncos. For all the questions about Peyton Manning's arm strength last year, he threw enough outside the numbers to help Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker develop into one of the NFL's top receiver tandems. "I mean, we have two really good guys. We can't ignore them," Welker said. "If one guy is catching 112 balls, the defense is focusing in on that guy. We want defenses focusing on everybody and having to worry about everybody. That was one of the main reasons I came here."
Analysis: Now, before you downgrade Welker, keep in mind it's not like the plan calls for him to go from 112 catches to 50. Manning won't forget his friends, but he won't ignore the new guy, either. Welker's Fantasy value definitely takes a hit going from New England to Denver, but he remains a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick in Round 4 or 5 in standard leagues. In PPR formats, look for Welker to be drafted as early as Round 3 since he should still be around 85-plus catches despite the drop-off with the Broncos.

Percy Harvin
Harvin to get time at running back
Percy Harvin, WR, SEA
5/23/2013
News: The Seattle Times reports that new Seattle receiver Percy Harvin is already making an impact. "His talent level is unbelievable, off the charts," said quarterback Russell Wilson. "He brings an explosive mentality to the game, which a lot of our guys already have. But to have him is truly tremendous. He's a guy that's been one of the best football players in the National Football League for the past several years." Harvin, 24, has averaged 1,800 total yards in four seasons and was on pace for 2,400 yards in 2012 — which would have led the NFL — before an ankle injury ended his season. In those nine games, he had 62 catches — 12 more than any Seahawk — for 677 yards. He also had 96 yards rushing and 574 yards on kickoff returns, including a 105-yard touchdown return. The Seahawks plan to use him similarly. He'll likely line up in the slot as his regular spot, but figures to get used outside, as well, and should see his share of handoffs and kickoff returns. "I'll be moving around — pretty much all around," said Harvin. "There'll be a little bit of running back coming up. But right now, we're just trying to get the foundation set, just running the base plays, and we'll see where it goes from there."
Analysis: We're excited about Harvin in Seattle because he should be able to remain highly involved on offense with better talent around him. Harvin remains a solid No. 1 Fantasy receiver, and he's worth drafting in Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues, especially if he continues to see time in the backfield.

Randall Cobb
Rodgers: Cobb could catch 100 passes
Randall Cobb, WR, GB
5/23/2013
News: ESPN reports that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has high expectations for third-year receiver Randall Cobb this season. Last year, Cobb made an enormous jump in his second NFL season. With Greg Jennings out with a torn abdominal muscle, Cobb played 733 snaps and caught a team-high 80 passes for 954 yards and added eight touchdowns. Rodgers thinks Cobb can do more. "I think Randall Cobb is a guy who could be a 100-plus catch guy every year," Rodgers said.
Analysis: We don't think Rodgers is far off with Cobb, who could take the next step in his career in his third season. The Packers as a team have high expectations for Cobb, and we like him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option. Plan on drafting Cobb in Round 4 in the majority of leagues, with his value slightly higher in PPR formats.

Ryan Williams
Williams played 'scared' in '12
Ryan Williams, RB, ARI
5/23/2013
News: Cardinals running back Ryan Williams told the Arizona Republic that he was more concerned about his knee than his play last season, saying he played scared. Williams came back from a torn patella tendon suffered in 2011 and wasn't ready for the physical punishment that comes with playing running back. Per the story, he got nervous when then-quarterback Kevin Kolb would call '39 toss' because it exposed his right side and his injured knee. The lack of confidence left him "pretty much scared all last year to get the ball in my hands." He added hurting his shoulder was a "blessing" because it allowed him time to get his knee feeling good. Now he says he's not scared anymore. "This is the healthiest I've felt in the past two years," Williams said. "It feels good to be able to run like myself, instinctive and not having to think about what I’m doing, just going out and doing it. I've been working real hard, so things are looking good. My stars are aligned this year."
Analysis: In the story coach Bruce Arians noted that Williams has his mobility back and is someone to watch when the pads come on. Williams has to fight for playing time after the Cardinals drafted Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington and signed Rashard Mendenhall. For now he's no better than a late-round flier but if he looks good in camp and runs with confidence then we could see him getting a decent amount of work.

Michael Crabtree
Harbaugh: Crabtree will play in '13
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
5/23/2013
News: 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh indicated that Michael Crabtree's torn right Achilles will not cost him the entire season. With surgery already done, it is believed Crabtree will return within six months. Linebacker Patrick Willis said Crabtree went down after making a "simple, normal cut" after going in motion and before starting his route during 7 on 7 drills. "Crab is one of those tough guys. He can get hit hard, and he'll bounce right back up," Willis told the San Jose Mercury News. "Yesterday he stayed down a little longer than normal. You say a little prayer and hope it wasn't as bad as it looked. Unfortunately it is."
Analysis: Crabtree was expected to post ridiculous numbers in 2013 after becoming Colin Kaepernick's go-to receiver last year and his promise to dedicate himself to being the Niners' top receiver this year. Eventually he should return and contribute to the Niners but the earliest it seems he could be back is Week 12 at Washington. If you draft Crabtree with what would now be a late-round pick, you'd have to dedicate a bench spot to him for most of the regular season with no guarantee you'd get him in your lineup at 100 percent, if at all. We'd rather spend the same late-round pick on Anquan Boldin or maybe even A.J. Jenkins knowing both will see a lot of work in San Francisco with Crabtree sidelined.

 
 
 
Top Videos
Rankings