2009 Draft Prep: Third-year wide receivers
Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are rooting for Steve Breaston. They saw what Breaston did as a sophomore in 2008 and believe he's ready for more.
That would be appropriate since Breaston is entering his third season, when wide receivers tend to have a breakout year. And we have Breaston targeted as one of the top third-year wide receivers for 2009.
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"He stepped in as the third receiver, and you guys saw what he was able to do," Boldin said in an interview with CBSSports.com this offseason. "He can be real good. You guys saw glimpses of him last year. He's a great athlete. He's just tipping the iceberg."
Added Fitzgerald: "It was good to see Steve have that kind of success. He's such a good kid. He works so hard. To be able to see him blossom into the type of player he is now, and to know he's only going to continue to get better, it's going to make our team that much more special."
Fantasy owners always look at wide receivers entering their third season with the hope that this will be a breakout year. It's happened in the past, so why not go to the well again. Along with Breaston, the top third-year wide receivers from the 2007 NFL Draft class are Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Anthony Gonzalez and Ted Ginn Jr.
In recent years, Greg Jennings (2008), Braylon Edwards (2007) and Roddy White (2007) took a big leap in production in their third season. You can also point to Steve Smith (2003), Chad Ochocinco (2003) and Rod Smith (1997) as previous examples. Even Jerry Rice set his career-high for touchdowns in his third year in 1987 with 22.
As some receivers have said, the third year is when they adjust to the speed of the game and fully understand how to read the defense and run routes. Rice said in an interview with CBSSports.com last year that in his third season he finally "felt comfortable."
"You start feeling like you belong," Rice said. "The first year, you're like a deer in headlights. You're trying to get used to playing with all those great players. The second year, you feel more at home, but you're still making adjustments. The third year, for me, I finally knew what to do."
Fitzgerald, who had his breakout season in his second year, agrees with Rice. He said even though it doesn't show in his stats, he could feel a difference when he entered his third season in 2006. He said things changed for him that year.
"You gain that with experience," Fitzgerald said. "As you start to see more coverage and more zones and more man coverage, you start to recognize it a little bit earlier. That just comes with experience and just understanding what's happening."
But the third-year theory is getting harder to justify when players like Johnson, who is entering his third year, has a breakout season as a sophomore. And we saw rookies become standouts last year in Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson. In years past, Boldin, Randy Moss and Marques Colston also dominated as rookies. Michael Irvin also didn't become a standout receiver until his fourth year.
Steve Smith, for example, had his first dominant season in his third year, but he said that's because it was the first year he got to play after spending two seasons on special teams for the Panthers. He said it had nothing to do with his service time in the league.
"People are looking for a reason or looking to cling on to something," Smith said in an interview this offseason. "I think that's a myth. If you have a good player and a baller there, that's going to happen, no matter what year it is.
"It's the person and individual. In my first year, I didn't get the opportunity to play wide receiver too much, and I was eager to play. It just varies and depends on your circumstance, the team you're on, your situation, the state of the team and who is around you."
But opportunity is also part of the equation when looking at third-year receivers. Gonzalez has played well in his first two seasons, but now he's getting the chance to start with Marvin Harrison gone. The same goes for Steve Smith of the Giants and Chansi Stuckey with the Jets.
Breaston won't get the opportunity to start with Boldin still with the Cardinals. He'll remain the No. 3 wide receiver in Arizona, but that's OK based on how he played last year and that style of offense.
Can he improve this season? That's what we'll be waiting to find out, but in his third year, there's a good chance it could happen.
A look ahead ...
Here is the list of the Top 15 members of the 2007 Wide Receiver Class to watch. It will be hard for some, like Calvin Johnson, to improve in their third year, and not everyone on this list is due for a breakout season. We've ranked them in order of how they should be drafted, and also don't be surprised if someone we didn't mention comes out of nowhere this year to be a star.
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| Bernard Berrian | |
| Rookie year (2004) | 15 catches, 225 yards, two TDs |
| Second year (2005) | 13 catches, 246 yards |
| Third year (2006) | 51 catches, 775 yards, six TDs |
| Plaxico Burress | |
| Rookie year (2000) | 22 catches, 273 yards |
| Second year (2001) | 66 catches, 1,008 yards, six TDs |
| Third year (2002) | 78 catches, 1,325 yards, seven TDs |
| Jerricho Cotchery | |
| Rookie year (2004) | Six catches, 60 yards |
| Second year (2005) | 19 catches, 251 yards |
| Third year (2006) | 82 catches, 961 yards, six TDs |
| Braylon Edwards | |
| Rookie year (2005) | 32 catches, 512 yards, three TDs |
| Second year (2006) | 61 catches, 884 yards, six TDs |
| Third year (2007) | 80 catches, 1,289 yards, 16 TDs |
| Lee Evans | |
| Rookie year (2004) | 48 catches, 843 yards, nine TDs |
| Second year (2005) | 48 catches, 743 yards, seven TDs |
| Third year (2006) | 82 catches, 1,292 yards, eight TDs |
| Greg Jennings | |
| Rookie year (2006) | 45 catches, 632 yards, three TDs |
| Second year (2007) | 53 catches, 920 yards, 12 TDs |
| Third year (2008) | 80 catches, 1,292 yards, nine TDs |
| Santana Moss | |
| Rookie year (2001) | Two catches, 40 yards |
| Second year (2002) | 30 catches, 433 yards, four TDs |
| Third year (2003) | 74 catches, 1,105 yards, 10 TDs |
| Chad Ochocinco | |
| Rookie year (2001) | 28 catches, 329 yards, one TD |
| Second year (2002) | 69 catches, 1,166 yards, five TDs |
| Third year (2003) | 90 catches, 1,355 yards, 10 TDs |
| Terrell Owens | |
| Rookie year (1996) | 35 catches, 520 yards, four TDs |
| Second year (1997) | 60 catches, 936 yards, eight TDs |
| Third year (1998) | 67 catches, 1,097 yards, 14 TDs |
| Jerry Rice | |
| Rookie year (1985) | 49 catches, 927 yards, three TDs |
| Second year (1986) | 86 catches, 1,570 yards, 15 TDs |
| Third year (1987) | 65 catches, 1,078 yards, 22 TDs |
| Rod Smith | |
| Rookie year (1995) | Six catches, 152 yards, one TD |
| Second year (1996) | 16 catches, 237 yards, two TDs |
| Third year (1997) | 70 catches, 1,180 yards, 12 TDs |
| Steve Smith | |
| Rookie year (2001) | 10 catches, 154 yards, no TDs |
| Second year (2002) | 54 catches, 872 yards, three TDs |
| Third year (2003) | 88 catches, 1,110 yards, seven TDs |
| Javon Walker | |
| Rookie year (2002) | 23 catches, 319 yards, one TD |
| Second year (2003) | 41 catches, 716 yards, nine TDs |
| Third year (2004) | 89 catches, 1,382 yards, 12 TDs |
| Roddy White | |
| Rookie year (2005) | 29 catches, 446 yards, three TDs |
| Second year (2006) | 30 catches, 506 yards, no TDs |
| Third year (2007) | 83 catches, 1,202 yards, six TDs |
| Roy E. Williams | |
| Rookie year (2004) | 54 catches, 817 yard, eight TDs |
| Second year (2005) | 45 catches, 687 yards, eight TDs |
| Third year (2006) | 82 catches, 1,310 yards, seven TDs |
Calvin Johnson, Detroit
2007: 48 catches, 756 yards, four touchdowns
2008: 78 catches, 1,331 yards, 12 touchdowns
2009 projection: 92 catches, 1,396 yards, 11 touchdowns
Average Draft Position: No. 19 overall, No. 4 wide receiver
Johnson was sensational as a sophomore with five different quarterbacks last year. This season, he should only have two in Daunte Culpepper and rookie Matthew Stafford, but Johnson has already established himself as a star. It's hard to expect Johnson to improve on last year's stats, but if he does he could end up as the No. 1 wide receiver in Fantasy Football, which isn't a stretch.
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City
2007: 70 catches, 995 yards, five touchdowns
2008: 86 catches, 1,022 yards, seven touchdowns
2009 projection: 89 catches, 1,201 yards, seven touchdowns
Average Draft Position: No. 38 overall, No. 13 wide receiver
Bowe is another receiver who might find it hard to improve on his stats from his first two years, but he now has a pass-friendly offense under new coach Todd Haley. A lot will depend on Matt Cassel and his development as a first-year starting quarterback, but Bowe is a solid No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver with the chance to be a No. 1 option.
Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis
2007: 37 catches, 576 yards, three touchdowns
2008: 57 catches, 664 yards, four touchdowns
2009 projection: 68 catches, 852 yards, six touchdowns
Average Draft Position: No. 70 overall, No. 23 wide receiver
Gonzalez has the chance to make the jump from good to great this season now that Marvin Harrison is gone. He could be considered the perfect case study for a third-year wide receiver because it probably takes two years to fully learn a complicated offense like the Colts. Peyton Manning should make Gonzalez into a starting Fantasy option this year, and he should be considered a breakout wide receiver.
Steve Breaston, Arizona
2007: eight catches, 92 yards
2008: 77 catches, 1,006 yards, three touchdowns
2009 projection: 57 catches, 738 yards, six touchdowns
Average Draft Position: No. 109 overall, No. 35 wide receiver
Breaston made the leap from out of nowhere to become a starting Fantasy option in certain formats last season. He's arguably the best No. 3 wide receiver on any team, and his stats could be tremendous if he wasn't playing behind Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. We expect another solid year from Breaston, and hopefully he can find the end zone a little more this season.
Ted Ginn Jr., Miami
2007: 34 catches, 420 yards, two touchdowns
2008: 56 catches, 790 yards, two touchdowns
2009 projection: 59 catches, 803 yards, four touchdowns
Average Draft Position: No. 111 overall, No. 36 wide receiver
Ginn would likely post better stats on another team since Chad Pennington likes to spread the ball around. Still, he's the Dolphins' No. 1 wide receiver, and he has shown in the preseason he's ready for the next step in his career. Ginn is the type of receiver you should draft as a No. 3 Fantasy option with the chance to improve his value throughout the year.
Steve Smith, New York Giants
2007: eight catches, 63 yards
2008: 57 catches, 574 yards, one touchdown
2009 projection: 68 catches, 746 yards, four touchdowns
Average Draft Position: No. 141 overall, No. 44 wide receiver
We expect Smith to be the No. 1 wide receiver for the Giants this year now that Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer are gone. He needs to improve his touchdown total to become a starting Fantasy option, but he could be one of those receivers who rack up plenty of catches. A 1,000-yard season is also a strong possibility since Eli Manning will likely be looking in his direction quite a bit.
Sidney Rice, Minnesota
2007: 31 catches, 396 yards, four touchdowns
2008: 15 catches, 141 yards, four touchdowns
2009 projection: 35 catches, 458 yards, four touchdowns
Average Draft Position: No. 157 overall, No. 51 wide receiver
Rice may never catch a ton of passes, even with Brett Favre now under center for the Vikings. But he does find the end zone, which makes him a viable candidate in touchdown leagues. In seven career starts, Rice has eight touchdowns. He's been plagued by injuries, which has hurt his production, but Favre will like throwing to this 6-foot-4 target near the end zone.
Robert Meachem, New Orleans
2007: no catches
2008: 12 catches, 289 yards, three touchdowns
2009 projection: 29 catches, 384 yards, two touchdowns
Average Draft Position: Undrafted
If only Meachem wasn't part of such a crowded wide receiver corps he could be a star playing with Drew Brees. But Meachem is behind Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Devery Henderson, and we know the Saints like throwing to Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey as well. Still, Meachem might be worth a late-round flier with the chance he could take off this year.
Chansi Stuckey, New York Jets
2007: no catches
2008: 32 catches, 359 yards, three touchdowns
2009 projection: 30 catches, 397 yards, two touchdowns
Average Draft Position: Undrafted
The Jets need help at wide receiver with Laveranues Coles now gone, and Stuckey is competing with fellow third-year receiver David Clowney for the job. Each has the ability for a breakout season this year, but we like Stuckey better because he's more experienced through his first two seasons. In deeper leagues, Stuckey is worth a late-round flier.
Laurent Robinson, St. Louis
2007: 37 catches, 437 yards, one touchdown
2008: five catches, 52 yards
2009 projection: 27 catches, 391 yards
Average Draft Position: Undrafted
The Rams need someone to catch the ball, and Robinson comes over from Atlanta this season with the chance for significant playing time. Don't overvalue Robinson or any of the Rams receivers, but Robinson is someone to monitor in case you want to add him off the waiver wire. But in terms of opportunity, Robinson has a chance to be a major contributor this season.
Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville
2007: no catches
2008: 16 catches, 217 yards
2009 projection: 38 catches, 455 yards, three touchdowns
Average Draft Position: Undrafted
Sims-Walker has the chance to start for the Jaguars this season and was someone we targeted as a sleeper prior to hurting his ankle in training camp. David Garrard has done well with inexperienced wide receivers before (see Matt Jones, Reggie Williams and Dennis Northcutt), so Sims-Walker can be the next in line. Outside of Maurice Jones-Drew, Torry Holt and maybe Troy Williamson, look for Garrard to target Sims-Walker quite a bit.
James Jones, Green Bay
2007: 47 catches, 676 yards, two touchdowns
2008: 20 catches, 274 yards, one touchdown
2009 projection: 28 catches, 370 yards, three touchdowns
Average Draft Position: Undrafted
Jones might not take a huge leap this season with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver still the top two options for Aaron Rodgers, but he could be a factor as the No. 3 wide receiver if he can beat out second-year man Jordy Nelson. Jones regressed after a productive rookie season, so be careful of him turning into a bust. But you always want to target receivers with good quarterbacks, and Jones has one of the best.
Dwayne Jarrett, Carolina
2007: six catches, 73 yards
2008: 10 catches, 119 yards
2009 projection: 18 catches, 214 yards, two touchdowns
Average Draft Position: Undrafted
Jarrett entered training camp with the Panthers hoping he could challenge Muhsin Muhammad for the No. 2 spot behind Steve Smith. Instead, Jarrett was passed on the depth chart by Kenny Moore for the third preseason game against Baltimore. If Jarrett can turn things around during the season then he might be worth adding off the waiver wire, but that's a big if at this point. Still, the talent is there, he just has to show it on the field.
David Clowney, New York Jets
2007: no catches
2008: one catch, 26 yards
2009 projection: 12 catches, 167 yards, one touchdown
Average Draft Position: Undrafted
Like Stuckey, Clowney is competing for the starting job opposite Jerricho Cotchery, but expect both to be part of the rotation. The key for both receivers is the development of rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. If he can become a legitimate passer then Stuckey and Clowney can turn into decent Fantasy options worth adding off the waiver wire. But again, look for Stuckey over Clowney coming into the season.
Craig Davis, San Diego
2007: 20 catches, 188 yards, one touchdown
2008: four catches, 59 yards
2009 projection: seven catches, 88 yards
Average Draft Position: Undrafted
Davis has the chance to be the No. 3 wide receiver for the Chargers behind Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers, and if he's on the field then he could make plays. But the Chargers don't use three wide-receiver sets often, and Davis has struggled in his first two seasons. Still, since Davis plays with Philip Rivers that could help his outlook this year and make him someone to target off the waiver wire.
Have a question or a comment for Jamey about Fantasy Football? Send your thoughts or questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and he'll get to as many as he can. Be sure to put Attn: Third-year WRs in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.
