2009 Draft Prep: Low-risk options to target
You always hear it every draft. Someone in your league will throw out the compliment, and hopefully it's aimed at you.
It's either "that's a great pick," or "you stole that guy there." It will usually happen in the middle rounds, and these aren't guys who necessarily qualify as sleepers.
We tend to target these as buy-low candidates. They are players who are coming off injuries or have some kind of baggage, but when they fall to you in a certain round, you are happy to take them.
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There is still some risk involved with these players, but you should consider them reserves with upside. Put them in the category of DeAngelo Williams, Ronnie Brown and Thomas Jones from 2008.
Williams finally had a breakout season after two disappointing years in Carolina and was the No. 1 running back in standard-scoring leagues. Brown, with the help of the Wildcat, helped Fantasy owners forget he was coming back from a torn ACL. And Jones went from a poor debut with the Jets in 2007 to leading the AFC in rushing and scoring a career-high 13 touchdowns.
We've targeted 10 players who could fall into that category this season. They are guys you might be afraid to draft, but by the end of the year, you'll be glad they landed in your lap.
Joseph Addai, RB, Colts
When the Colts drafted Donald Brown, many Fantasy owners hit the panic button on Addai. He struggled last season through an injury-plagued year and was even outplayed by his backup, Dominic Rhodes. After Brown was selected in the first-round of the NFL Draft it looked like Addai was headed for a tandem or worse. But he has come back strong during training camp and the preseason, and even though Brown will steal carries, Addai remains the best running back in Indianapolis. He's a strong No. 2 Fantasy option in this offense.
Average Draft Position: No. 50 overall, No. 21 running back
Will be drafted in Round: 5
Will play like someone in Round: 2
Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals
Benson showed flashes of his potential last season when the Bengals signed him after he was released by the Bears. Fantasy owners are still scared of Benson because they remember the guy in Chicago who was a bust as Top 5 draft pick. But Benson has taken advantage of his second chance, and not many running backs are in Benson's situation where he doesn't have to worry about sharing carries. If he plays like he did last season, he'll end up in your starting Fantasy lineup most weeks this year.
Average Draft Position: No. 78 overall, No. 31 running back
Will be drafted in Round: 7
Will play like someone in Round: 4
Chris Cooley, TE, Redskins
Cooley forgot where the end zone was last season when he only scored once, which was a career low. That was a shock since Cooley has scored at least six touchdowns a season for his first four years. He did set career highs for catches and yards, but Fantasy owners are shying away from him as an elite tight end. He should get back to that level and has the chance to be a Top 5 option again if he can get back to scoring touchdowns on a more regular basis.
Average Draft Position: No. 75 overall, No. 6 tight end
Will be drafted in Round: 7
Will play like someone in Round: 5
Torry Holt, WR, Jaguars
Holt leaves the friendly confines of St. Louis and the indoor turf he loved so much for the outdoor grass in Jacksonville, which could hurt his game. But while he's not a No. 1 Fantasy option anymore, he's still a quality wide receiver and will have productive weeks. By the end of the season, Holt could end up playing like a No. 2 Fantasy option. And despite creaky knees, he's still only 33 years old, which means he should have at least one or two more good years left.
Average Draft Position: No. 113 overall, No. 37 wide receiver
Will be drafted in Round: 10
Will play like someone in Round: 6
Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs
First, he wanted out of Kansas City, and now he's happy with the Chiefs. If he can't make up his mind, how can Fantasy owners? Well, you should know with the new offensive system in place, Johnson should rebound from the disappointing seasons he's had the past two years. He was once one of the best Fantasy options in 2005-06, and he has the chance to return as a starting option this season. He's not going to be a No. 1 running back again, but he's a candidate for 1,300 total yards and 10 touchdowns, which is hard to pass up.
Average Draft Position: No. 42 overall, No. 20 running back
Will be drafted in Round: 4
Will play like someone in Round: 3
Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns
If you've followed this site the past two years, you should know that me suggesting to draft Lewis is like Mike Martz calling a running play. But, finally, Lewis is being undervalued. As much potential as Jerome Harrison and James Davis might have, Lewis is still the starter and still the best option at the goal line. And since you can draft him as a low-end No. 3 option, he will be a great reserve with the chance to start on occasion. He'll have some good moments this year.
Average Draft Position: No. 95 overall, No. 36 running back
Will be drafted in Round: 9
Will play like someone in Round: 6
Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens
Thanks to LeRon McClain last year and the potential of Ray Rice this year, McGahee is falling far enough on Draft Day to make him undervalued and worth the price. He's going to share carries with Rice, and although he might lose touchdowns to McClain, this has been McGahee's best offseason of his career. He appears motivated, and if Rice falters, McGahee will have the chance to take over, which means you'll be happy to draft him with a late-round pick.
Average Draft Position: No. 110 overall, No. 40 running back
Will be drafted in Round: 10
Will play like someone in Round: 7
Terrell Owens, WR, Bills
Owens has plenty of red flags with his injured toe, an inexperienced quarterback in Trent Edwards, a poor offensive line for the Bills while coming off a down year. But even with a bad ending in Dallas, he still scored 10 touchdowns and reached 1,000 yards receiving, something he's done almost every year of his career. And in his first year in Philadelphia and Dallas, he dominated. He's not the best Fantasy receiver anymore, but he's a great No. 2 option.
Average Draft Position: No. 35 overall, No. 11 wide receiver
Will be drafted in Round: 4
Will play like someone in Round: 2
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers
The last time Big Ben won a Super Bowl he came back the next year and passed for 32 touchdowns. While that's hard to expect, Roethlisberger could play well enough to sneak into the Top 10 of Fantasy passers this year. He's not worth drafting as your starter, but he's the type of No. 2 quarterback you want to target. And he has quality weapons in Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward and Heath Miller. If the Steelers turn him loose, he could end up producing as a top Fantasy option.
Average Draft Position: No. 84 overall, No. 14 quarterback
Will be drafted in Round: 7
Will play like someone in Round: 5
Kellen Winslow, TE, Buccaneers
The key with Winslow has always been health, but now he's also going to a new team and has a questionable quarterback situation. But Winslow should be the best receiver in Tampa Bay, especially with Antonio Bryant coming off a knee injury. Winslow helped turn Derek Anderson into a star, so he should do the same with whoever starts for the Bucs. And he's proven when he plays 16 games he's capable of at least 80 catches, 1,000 yards and five touchdowns.
Average Draft Position: No. 80 overall, No. 7 tight end
Will be drafted in Round: 7
Will play like someone in Round: 5
Have a question or a comment for Jamey about Fantasy Football? Send your thoughts or questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and he'll get to as many as he can. Be sure to put Attn: Buy-low candidates in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.
