2009 Draft Prep: QBs who will rise and fall
It happens every year. A top quarterback will struggle or get hurt, and someone who you didn't consider on Draft Day will come out of nowhere.
Just look at the last two years. In 2007, Derek Anderson, Kurt Warner and David Garrard weren't drafted in the majority of leagues on CBSSports.com, and they ended up as Top 15 options in standard-scoring formats.
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Last year, the same thing happened with Matt Cassel, Chad Pennington and Tyler Thigpen. While it's hard to predict injuries like Cassel replacing Tom Brady or guys getting benched like Thigpen for Brodie Croyle, quarterback moves happen every year.
So who will step up this year? And who will falter to make the other quarterbacks shine?
The prediction is Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub and Kurt Warner won't finish as Top 12 Fantasy quarterbacks, while Joe Flacco, Garrard and Shaun Hill will be among the contenders as potential No. 1 options.
You should still draft Cutler, Schaub and Warner as starting Fantasy quarterbacks, but take a proven backup in case they falter. And the safe No. 2 options are Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck and Kyle Orton.
But as we've seen, just because a quarterback isn't drafted, that doesn't mean they won't be successful. And here are three guys who could be worth adding off the waiver wire.
Three out
Jay Cutler, Chicago
Average Draft Position: No. 62 overall, No. 11 quarterback
Outlook: Cutler was one of the top Fantasy quarterbacks last year, but he's leaving the pass-happy AFC West for the blue collar NFC North. The Bears are a run-first team, and Cutler's stats will ultimately suffer because of the trade. And as good as Greg Olsen and Devin Hester should be, his weapons were better in Denver. He's not going to fall off the map, but he will struggle to remain as a starting Fantasy option for a full season. Remember, as good as he was last year, he still threw 18 interceptions with five fumbles, so turnovers could be a problem.
Matt Schaub, Houston
Average Draft Position: No. 57 overall, No. 10 quarterback
Outlook: I plan on drafting Schaub every chance I can get because for at least 10 games he should be outstanding, especially throwing to Andre Johnson. But since he's missed 10 games over the past two seasons and was banged up in the third preseason game at Minnesota, you know he's injury prone. He'll be great for a stretch like he showed last December when he averaged 320 passing yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions for the final four games. But you just need a good insurance policy for the time he could be out.
Kurt Warner, Arizona
Average Draft Position: No. 30 overall, No. 6 quarterback
Outlook: Something about Warner worries me. He's never played a full 16 games in back-to-back seasons, and this year he's 38 and coming off hip surgery. He also could have arm issues after all those throws in leading the Cardinals to the Super Bowl. Like Schaub, Warner should be great for a stretch during the season. But you should be prepared to be without Warner at some point based on his history. His weapons are amazing with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston, but he could take a step back this year.
Three in
Joe Flacco, Baltimore
Average Draft Position: No. 130 overall, No. 19 quarterback
Outlook: The last quarterback I expected to recommend for any leagues was Flacco, but he's looked great in the preseason and continues to make plays despite a depleted receiving corps. Last year, Flacco finished as the No. 20 overall Fantasy quarterback, but he played well for five games in November, averaging 212 passing yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. If he can improve on those stats for a full season, he has the chance for a big year. The key will be getting help from teammates like Derrick Mason, Todd Heap and Ray Rice making plays in the passing game.
David Garrard, Jacksonville
Average Draft Position: No. 138 overall, No. 23 quarterback
Outlook: Everyone seems to doubt Garrard, but he's played well the past two seasons and wound up as a solid Fantasy option. He's not flashy and doesn't have much help on offense, but the addition of Torry Holt and the increased role for Maurice Jones-Drew gives him some talented weapons. Remember, he's been successful with Matt Jones, Reggie Williams and Dennis Northcutt, so this is an upgrade. The Jaguars have also improved the offensive line, so don't be afraid to use Garrard as your No. 2 quarterback. And once again, don't be surprised when he finishes near the top of the quarterback rankings.
Shaun Hill, San Francisco
Average Draft Position: No. 158 overall, No. 24 quarterback
Outlook: We liked Hill at the end of 2007 when he was a good late addition for Fantasy owners. He came off the bench again in 2008, and again he turned into a quality waiver wire addition. This year, Hill gets to start from Week 1, and we're excited to see what he can do. It would be nice if he had Michael Crabtree, but even without the holdout wide receiver Hill should be able to make plays in the NFC West. He averaged 227 passing yctonine games. And he had two rushing touchdowns, so 25 total touchdowns is a possibility.
The Favre factor
Brett Favre, who is being drafted at No. 161 overall and the No. 26 quarterback, should also be a candidate to crack the Top 15 quarterbacks. But I find it difficult recommending a 39-year-old quarterback who is coming off arm surgery.
Still, he does have talented weapons around him and plays in an offense he's familiar with. And if you want to draft him as a backup, here are two positive scenarios.
If you draft a quarterback who has a bye in Week 4 (Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia) or in Week 8 (Cincinnati, K.C., Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington and New England) you can take Favre as your No. 2 option. Those are the weeks when Favre faces Green Bay. The first one is at home, and the second one is at Lambeau Field.
So if you draft Warner, Matt Ryan or Donovan McNabb and need a backup for the Week 4 bye, take Favre. The same goes for Carson Palmer, Tom Brady and Roethlisberger in Week 8.
You know Favre will try to put on a show those weeks. So draft him with a late-round pick.
Have a question or a comment for Jamey about Fantasy Football? Send your thoughts or questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com and he'll get to as many as he can. Be sure to put Attn: Quarterbacks in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.
