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Dave Richard

Fantasy & Reality: What seems to be the catch?

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


One of our draft tips when it came to wide receivers this summer was "get them early, skip them late."

You didn't want to be left picking starting options from a group of underachievers or stuck with veterans in the middle rounds. You wanted to land two elite options within the first three or four rounds and another strong wideout or two by the end of Round 6 or 7. Anything less than that might result in Fantasy mediocrity.

But after three weeks, I'm not sure that plan was good enough.

While Fantasy quarterbacks seem to grow on trees and running backs are doing just enough to stay Fantasy relevant, finding consistency among receivers is challenging to say the least. Only one receiver -- Vincent Jackson -- has scored double-digit Fantasy points in each of his first three games. He's also tied for the lead in Fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues with Reggie Wayne.

Inconsistency at receiver has long been a Fantasy issue. This is to be expected. What's not to be expected is the absolute glut of underwhelming, underperforming receivers that are sending Fantasy owners into a tizzy. Qualified, well-known Fantasy receivers that were taken with valuable draft picks are struggling, and owners are now forced to wonder whether they should remain in starting lineups or be sent to the bench.

Here are the offending players through three weeks:

Player Rec. Yards TDs
Donnie Avery 10 62 0
Antonio Bryant* 3 35 0
Bernard Berrian* 10 102 0
Braylon Edwards 10 139 0
Lee Evans 8 88 1
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 14 145 0
Calvin Johnson 13 190 1
Brandon Marshall 12 128 1
Terrell Owens 5 98 1
Eddie Royal 6 42 0
Roddy White 15 119 1
* - missed one game due to injury

Not to make those of you who own one or more of these Fantasy duds feel bad, but if you combined the stats of Nate Burleson, Jerricho Cotchery, Devery Henderson, Johnny Knox and Mario Manningham, you'd have roughly the same amount of receiving yards but two more touchdowns -- and on 31 fewer catches. And that fivesome served as nothing more than back-end roster depth two short months ago.

Anyway, Fantasy owners should be at the point now where benching Avery, Bryant, Berrian, Edwards and Royal is standard. They're not producing for one reason or another and simply will hurt you more than help you. Firmly plant them on your bench and wait for signs of life (or cut them and hope they never show up this season).

But what about the others? Johnson and White were Top 25 picks! Marshall, Evans, Housh and T.O. were expected to be useful No. 2 receivers. Do you keep them planted in lineups or risk missing out on a big statistical explosion?

Let's start with White and Houshmandzadeh, who are clearly still fixtures in their offenses as they have 26 and 27 targets, respectively. Houshmandzadeh clearly doesn't look like the same guy who topped 1,100 yards and hauled in 12 touchdowns in 2007. It looks like he has some minor injuries holding him back, and the Seahawks' offense in general is struggling behind a beaten-up offensive line. Meanwhile, White has still gotten a lot of looks from quarterback Matt Ryan but has definitely been impacted by the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez. Because both players are being thrown at more than most other receivers, taking them out of lineups is fairly dangerous. If the matchups dictate a sit and you have a better option, then sit them. Otherwise, lower expectations a bit and run with them. I would not suggest trading for or shopping either receiver.

Fantasy Football - Fantasy & Reality: What seems to be the catch? : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

Marshall would have been an easy player to bench beginning next week except he scored at Oakland and leads all Broncos with 20 targets. Evans and Owens are on an offense that looked good for two weeks but got exposed in Week 3 when the Saints gave quarterback Trent Edwards fits and made him overthrow and checkdown behind an inexperienced offensive line. If Edwards can't get his act together, both Bills receivers will struggle (T.O., by his own standards, is already there). All three of these receivers might cause Fantasy owners fits, so at the very least if you can trade them for someone comparable, you might not stay up late at night worrying about what they're going to do. Getting value for them will be an issue -- owners will definitely not land their draft value. Otherwise, Marshall and T.O. should be expected to perform like No. 3 options while Evans is tough to consider a starter.

In the case of Calvin Johnson, who doesn't exactly have bad numbers but hasn't been elite just yet, you have to ride him. Plus he's tied for seventh in the NFL with 28 targets, which is excellent considering how much the Lions are spreading the ball around compared to last season. If you're in a league with a guy who's sour on 'Megatron,' trade for him right now. It's only a matter of time before he and Matthew Stafford take the next step together and become an excellent duo.

One more thought: The concept of situational personnel has expanded beyond running backs. Know how some teams use anywhere from two to four running backs throughout a game depending on the situation? Teams are doing that with receivers, only leaving the best wideouts on the field for the entire game because they'll either be decoys in the offense or making plays. But the situational receivers, which expands to tight ends taking a chunk of the targets, is not helping the plight of the stud, primary receivers. The term "No. 1 receiver" is all but gone from NFL teams' vocabularies. It's bad for receivers, but it's a big reason why quarterbacks are doing better than expected.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) about what we witnessed in Week 3.

Fantasy: No way Kevin Kolb throws for 300 yards again. For the second week in a row, Kolb proved that he can be a solid West Coast offense quarterback and lead the Eagles in place of Donovan McNabb. He's got a nice, quick release, but the key to his big stats has been the play of DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek, both of whom have contributed heavily to Kolb's stat line. McNabb owners have to love seeing this because when the veteran gets back in there from a broken rib, he'll be in line to have totals like Kolb.

Reality: It's hard to count on Tony Gonzalez against Bill Belichick. Not only did we talk about it before Week 3, but it was dissected after the game: Belichick has a standard plan for defending against Gonzalez, and it probably extends to other elite tight ends. Gonzo was targeted just two times in a game where the Falcons had a hard time throwing the ball, period.

Fantasy: The Texans will be involved in a lot of close, low-scoring games. In what might be a very positive development for Fantasy owners, Houston's defense is worse than expected. But Houston's offense continues to flourish. Combine the two, and you'll have a lot of high-scoring games. The Texans have allowed at least 24 points per game this season and Matt Schaub has thrown at least three touchdowns in his last two contests. Expect the Texans to be the favorite team of Fantasy owners seeing as how everyone they start -- and play against -- will be worth a look each week. And yes, that does apply to Darren McFadden for Week 4 when the Raiders visit H-town.

Reality: Joe Flacco is a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback. Hats off to the Fantasy folks who wrote in last week telling me I was a nut bar for continuing to underestimate Flacco's game. I've learned my lesson after his 342-yard, one-touchdown performance over the Browns. The Patriots get a crack at him next week and I'm interested to see how they defend against this Ravens offense, which is running the ball just about as well as anyone right now (4.7 yards per carry average for the team).

Strategy Session

Frank Gore's ankle cost me big Fantasy points this week. Who is a good replacement for him?

Some of you out there actually benched Gore this week because of his matchup against the Vikings. Lucky move since he had just one carry before limping off with what NFL.com is describing as a high-ankle strain (as opposed to a sprain) that might cost him two weeks. Keeping in mind that the 49ers' bye comes in Week 6, we might not see Gore play again until Week 7 at Houston, which is a delicious matchup for him to return.

So with three weeks of potentially being without Gore, Fantasy owners have to make alternative plans. The first move is to seek out Glen Coffee, the rookie who played in place of Gore at Minnesota and managed to get 54 yards, albeit on 25 carries. Hey, it's the Vikings, and Coffee hasn't played much. This was to be expected, just like it's to be expected that Coffee perks up against the Rams in Week 4 and the Falcons in Week 5, both at home. Coffee is worth a decent reserve running back or receiver in trade, or an owner could downgrade a stud player for Coffee and a good player at the same position as the stud (example: Schaub for Coffee and Ben Roethlisberger).

If you can't get Coffee, here are some other rushers that might be available on waivers to help you out:

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City: A decent receiver out of the backfield and a definite change of pace guy for Larry Johnson, Charles has the speed to score on any play. If the Chiefs continue to struggle and play from behind, his playing time will increase.

Tashard Choice, Dallas: His reps will ultimately depend on Marion Barber and Felix Jones' reps, but Choice proved last year that he can play in the NFL. Probably shouldn't be the first guy on your wish list, but he has potential.

James Davis, Cleveland: Jamal Lewis' hamstring is ailing and the Browns' chances of winning several games is dwindling. Davis is a powerful runner who might give Cleveland a boost if they are without Lewis for more than a couple of weeks.

Jerome Harrison, Cleveland: I spoke highly of Harrison's game before Week 3 and he was decent, totaling 85 yards and owning a team-high five catches. He's a nifty player with some speed and good versatility, and the Browns would be wise to see what he can do with the football since he'd give them a new dimension to the offense.

Michael Robinson, San Francisco: Robinson won't play much, but he's the backup to Coffee now that Gore is out for a few games. He'll give you something.

Note: Matt Forte (leg) and Kevin Smith (shoulder) also got hurt in Week 3, though the extent of their injuries isn't known yet. Their backups, Adrian Peterson and Maurice Morris, respectively, could be decent one-week fill-ins for Gore, not to mention for Forte and Smith.

Parting shots

• The 49ers-Vikings game truly lived up to its billing as far as drama and good football goes, but how about neither Gore nor Adrian Peterson playing a huge role for their teams? Peterson was limited to under 100 total yards without an end zone visit and Gore got hurt. I suppose Brett Favre really does have some magic left in the tank, though I'd be shocked if he posts another 300-yard game this season. He didn't even have one last season before his shoulder starting bothering him.

• I hope Mike Singletary's prediction about meeting the Vikings again in the playoffs comes true. I'd love to see these two teams play again.

• I'm still not starting Favre as anything more than a one-week replacement, though.

• I was about ready to send Saints coach Sean Payton a rotten fruit basket after not giving Pierre Thomas a single carry in the first half. But then Thomas got in the game and dominated the Bills, rushing for an incredible 126 yards on 14 carries with two touchdowns, totals that resemble his dominance from last season. But now is not the time to trade for him. Instead, look to lock him up after he struggles vs. the Jets in Week 4. The Saints go on bye in Week 5, have a toughie against the Giants and then have smooth sailing for several weeks. Thomas will be a monster, and the fresh fruit basket is on the way to Payton.

• Drew Brees has regressed dramatically, can't hit the down-field pass and is a shell of his former self. He can barely throw a ball after failing to score or throw for even 200 yards at Buffalo. Please trade him to my team in all leagues for Jason Campbell and LeRon McClain.

• I'm getting the feeling the Bengals are for real. Their defense has been good, and their offense is doing enough to win games. They really should be 3-0 but lost in Week 1 on "the tip play" that the Broncos cashed in on. And how about Cedric Benson finding room against the Steelers?! The only thing missing is Carson Palmer's big stats -- he has yet to throw for more than 250 yards in a game and has not played very well at home.

• I spoke too soon on Pierre Garcon. He's getting better right in front of our eyes, and he's enjoying single coverage as much as any decent receiver. If I'm Anthony Gonzalez, I tell my knee to heal up NOW so I don't lose my job permanently.

• Clinton Portis is part of the problem in Washington. There, I said it. It's hard to say bad things about great Miami Hurricanes, but Portis is clearly struggling.

• Yes, kids, we're really on the brink of calling Devin Hester a must-start Fantasy wide receiver regardless of the matchup, and teammate Johnny Knox might not be far behind. Through three weeks, Bears GM Jerry Angelo has been correct: Quarterbacks do make the receivers.

• Congratulations, this time to Josh McDaniels and the 3-0 Broncos. It's really nice for him and for the Broncos fans who have been through a lot this offseason, but we'll see what they're made of over their next five games: vs. Dallas, vs. New England, at San Diego, a bye, at Baltimore and vs. Pittsburgh. For those of you who own Knowshon Moreno and are flying high, you've been warned.

• More congratulations to the Lions for their first win in what seems like 21 months (oh, wait ...). Not only did the Lions do the right things on the field to defeat a drowning Redskins team, but they did the right thing off the field by high-fiving fans after the game. I smell a new tradition in Detroit ... one that the fans of the other 31 teams would become very jealous of.

Imagine that -- being envious of the Lions.

Dave is ready to either ignore or answer your Fantasy questions/comments/complaints. Drop him a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. If you do write him, be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, if you can fit your Fantasy queries/dilemmas/vulgarities within 140 characters, you can follow Dave on Twitter @daverichard.

 
 
 
Player News
Richard Seymour
Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
2/12/2012
News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.
Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

 
 
 
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