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History Lessons: Lynch in a pinch

Dave Richard
Senior Fantasy Writer
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Fantasy owners weren't sure what to expect from Marshawn Lynch last week against the Dolphins. After all, he was coming off of a three-game suspension and joining a red-hot Fred Jackson in the Bills' backfield. He disappointed with four rushing yards but made some hay with 43 yards through the air.

The more encouraging sign is that he had just one fewer carry than Jackson (his eight to Jackson's nine) and actually caught two more passes than Jackson (his five to Jackson's three). Some people believed that Lynch's role would be limited as the Bills catered to Jackson, but it's clear that they're splitting the work.

Fantasy Football - History Lessons: Lynch in a pinch : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

This week, history indicates that Lynch should not only split the work but split up the Browns. Last year, while sharing the ball with Jackson, Lynch crushed Cleveland at home for 119 rush yards and 58 receiving yards with a touchdown catch. He faces those same Browns again in Week 5, though this time they're actually worse than last season! The Browns are ranked 31st against the run, giving up an average of 176.8 rush yards per game. They've also given up a league-worst eight touchdowns on the ground this season. Sure, the Browns fended off Cedric Benson last week, but before Week 4 they yielded at least two rushing scores in every game.

With Lynch shaking off some rust in Week 4, expect him and Jackson to run all over the Browns early and often in Week 5, especially since the Bills need to give quarterback Trent Edwards a bit of a rest after getting destroyed over the last two weeks. Don't be surprised to see the Bills run the ball at least 30 times, which means Lynch and Jackson should post great stats, with Lynch the better of the two.

Receiver vs. cornerback, teacher vs. student

It's always interesting when one of Bill Belichick's former assistants gets to face him, and that's what we'll get when the Broncos host the Patriots in Week 5. Josh McDaniels, the Patriots' former offensive coordinator, has the Broncos out fast at 4-0 and will try to make it 5-0 against New England.

This is an interesting game with plenty of storylines and history.

Randy Moss vs. Champ Bailey

2008 at New England: Moss steamrolls Bailey's Broncos for 69 yards on five catches and two touchdowns, but Bailey left the game in the first half with a groin pull. Before he left, Moss had two catches for 18 yards.

2006 at Denver: As a Raider, Moss was blanketed and had an awful quarterback in Andrew Walter throwing to him. He finished with 86 yards on five catches, but his biggest gain -- a 51-yard catch -- came when he beat Bailey as part of double coverage.

2006 at Oakland: Moss gets one catch for 8 yards. Yawn.

2005 at Oakland: Moss scored on Bailey's Broncos, but not on Bailey. His 29-yard touchdown catch came in double coverage on the opposite side of the field from Bailey. He finished the game with six catches for 87 yards with the score. Twenty-four of those yards came directly against Bailey.

2005 at Denver: Twenty of Moss' 72 yards came directly against Bailey. He, nor his Raiders, scored a touchdown in the game.

We'd tell you about the matchups these two had against each other when Moss was in Minnesota and Bailey in Washington, but none exist. The Redskins and Vikings didn't play each other during Bailey's stint in D.C.

Bill Belichick vs. Mike Nolan

The new Broncos defensive architect is Mike Nolan, who has faced Bill Belichick-coached teams a number of times over his career.

1994 at Cleveland: Belichick's Browns lost to Nolan's Giants, 16-13. Vinny Testaverde threw two interceptions; Leroy Hoard rumbled for a touchdown and totaled 61 yards on 15 total touches.

2000 at N.Y. Jets: Belichick's Patriots lost to Nolan's Jets, 20-19. The Patriots tried to run at the Jets as Kevin Faulk rushed 21 times for 82 yards (also caught four passes for 23 yards). Drew Bledsoe threw the only touchdown.

2000 at New England: Belichick's Patriots lost to Nolan's Jets, 34-17. Drew Bledsoe threw three interceptions but ran for a score, as did Kevin Faulk.

2004 at New England: Belichick's Patriots beat Nolan's Ravens, 24-3. New England got it all done on the ground with Corey Dillon carrying 30 times for 123 yards and a touchdown -- and yes, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed and then-Baltimore linebacker Adalius Thomas were playing in the game. Tom Brady was harrassed, completing just 15 of 30 passes while not throwing a touchdown or an interception.

2008 at San Francisco: Belichick's Patriots beat Nolan's 49ers, 30-21. Kevin Faulk scored twice on the ground, Randy Moss had over 100 yards with a score of his own from Matt Cassel, who threw two interceptions.

Funny that the name that keeps coming up here is Kevin Faulk. The versatile veteran has 40 carries for 147 yards and three scores with 13 catches for 79 yards in the games he's gone up against Nolan-coached defenses. Only in the game against Nolan's Ravens was he not much of a factor.

Bill Belichick vs. Josh McDaniels

Obviously, Josh McDaniels has only coached against Belichick in Patriot practices. Their meeting on Sunday will be their first as opposing coaches.

We suspect that the Patriots defense will have a pretty big advantage in the game. After all, who knows McDaniels' tendencies better than New England? A similar advantage has helped the Patriots to a 6-2 record all-time against coaches who left Belichick's stable for a team of their own. That specifically does not bode well for the Broncos' offense since that's the side of the ball where McDaniels earned his reputation.

Frown on Brown?

Ronnie Brown used to own the Jets. In three games from 2006-07, Brown rushed for at least 110 yards per game with four total touchdowns. But he struggled against the Jets last year, barely touching the ball in two games and failing to score. He had 17 carries for 80 yards and seven catches for 43 yards combined -- a tribute to the Jets' vaunted front seven.

There's more -- Rex Ryan has had Brown's number also. Like many other players, Ryan got a good look at Brown twice last season as defensive coordinator of the Ravens. Brown ran against the Ravens twice, getting 27 yards on 13 carries in the regular season and 19 yards on 12 carries in the postseason. Brown fared a little better through the air in the postseason meeting, catching six passes for 43 yards with a score, but the bottom line is that Ryan stuffed Brown, including when he lined up in the Wildcat.

Now the Jets will get a look at Brown again, and this time they're packing one of the best defenses in the league on their trip to South Florida. They didn't do that last week as the Saints were able to push them around in the second half, but the Jets still have allowed just two rushing touchdowns on the year. Furthermore, Brown hasn't posted 100-yard games in back-to-back weeks since coming back from his 2007 ACL injury (he had a bye between his Week 3 and Week 5 100-yard games last season). Brown steamrolled the Bills for 115 yards and two touchdowns last week.

History says these players will enjoy Week 5 ...
Dallas Clark Two TDs last year, three in last two at Tennessee
Mark Clayton 100 yards and/or TD in each of last three vs. Cincy
Jerricho Cotchery TD in each of last two games at Miami (130 total yards)
Joe Flacco 280 yards, 2 TDs in last game vs. Cincinnati
Jerome Harrison 101 total yards, TD last year at Buffalo
Chris Johnson 96 total yards, TD in one '08 game vs. Colts
Thomas Jones Two TDs, three 100-total-yard games in last four vs. MIA
Peyton Manning Four total TDs, two INTs in two '08 games vs. Titans
Derrick Mason 91 yards, TD in last game against Bengals
Leon Washington Three TDs in last three against Dolphins
Wes Welker TD, 63 yards last year against Broncos
LenDale White Two TDs at home vs. Colts last season
History tells a sad story for these players ...
Joseph Addai Two TDs, no 100-total-yard games in career vs. TEN
Cedric Benson 10 car., 17 yards in one game vs. BAL
Trent Edwards One TD, three INTs last year vs. Browns
Kerry Collins No TDs vs. Colts since joining Titans
Justin Gage One catch (6 yards) last year vs. Colts
Ted Ginn Jr. Eight grabs, 122 yards, one TD in four career games vs. NYJ
Todd Heap One TD, no 50-yard games in last five vs. CIN
Dustin Keller Two catches, 24 yards in two '08 games vs. Dolphins
Brandon Marshall Six catches, 77 yards, no TDs last year vs. Pats
Chad Ochocinco One TD, no 100-yard games in last six vs. BAL
Carson Palmer Four TDs in last five overall vs. Ravens
Ray Rice 33 car., 105 yards, no TDs in two '08 games vs. CIN
Reggie Wayne No TDs, no 100-yard games in last five vs. Titans
Ricky Williams 74 total rush yards in two games vs. NYJ last season

How do you think history will treat you? E-mail your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: History Lessons ing the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll get to as many as we can.

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Player News
Rob Gronkowski
First Gronk's arm, now his back?!
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
5/17/2013
News: On the same day NFL Network reported Rob Gronkowski had a Monday, May 20 date set for his fourth surgery related to his left forearm, USA Today reports the tight end's back is "acting up" and might require surgery after undergoing an MRI for a disc issue. The report said this disc is different than the one that needed to be shaved down in a 2009 surgical procedure, forcing Gronk to miss that year of football while enrolled at Arizona. ESPN reports the back issue is considered minor and his long-term prognosis is good. Gronkowski will see noted spine specialist Dr. Robert Watkins after his forearm surgery, which will replace a metal plate in his forearm. If Gronkowski needs back surgery the hope is that he can heal from that and his arm at the same time and be ready before the start of the season. Also, it bears repeating that a fifth arm surgery is still possible if there's an infection in his arm though ProFootballTalk.com reports doctors are confident that won't be the case.
Analysis: Before you hyperventilate and scratch Gronk off your rank lists, remember that it's only mid-May and there is still time to see how he heals up from whichever surgeries he ends up having. It goes without saying that his Fantasy draft stock will be affected negatively if he has all the procedures and isn't ready for training camp or preseason games. Count on us to keep you posted on the latest news on Gronkowski between now and when the season starts.

EJ Manuel
Manuel could start Week 1
EJ Manuel, QB, BUF
5/17/2013
News: The Bills official team website reports that new general manager Doug Whaley was asked in an appearance on the NFL Network about the chances of rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel being ready to start Week 1 of the regular season. Whaley didn’t rule out the possibility. “Time will tell,” said Whaley. ”He does have the work ethic and the leadership qualities that he’ll have a chance. But we believe competition brings out the best in everybody. Between him, Kevin Kolb, Tarvaris Jackson, even Jeff Tuel, we’re excited to see who comes out on top of that position battle.” Buffalo’s season opener is a home game against New England.
Analysis: We'd like to see Manuel start from Week 1 because he presents the most upside of the quarterback group in Buffalo. Keep an eye on Manuel's progress this offseason, and he has the chance to be a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback in standard leagues. In rookie-only drafts, Manuel should be considered a Top 15 overall selection.

Mike Goodson
Goodson arrested Friday
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
5/17/2013
News: Jets running back Mike Goodson was arrested on drug and weapon charges early on Friday morning, reports News 12 in New Jersey. According to the report, Goodson and another man were found intoxicated in a parked SUV along Route 80 in Denville, New Jersey, which is about 15 miles northwest of the Jets' headquarters in Florham Park. A loaded .45-caliber handgun with hollow-point bullets was found in the SUV and when the 25-year-old running back was transported to a hospital for evaluation, marijuana was discovered in his possession. The Jets signed Goodson to a three-year, $6 million contract on March 15 to compete for a starting job this season. Goodson's deal with the Jets included a $1.93 million guaranteed. CBSSports.com blogger Will Brinson researched that illegal possession of hollow point bullets is a "crime of the fourth degree" in New Jersey, which appears to be among the states with the strictest laws regarding the ammunition.
Analysis: Goodson could be headed to prison, not to mention an NFL suspension, if found guilty of this crime. Before this incident we expected him to be No. 2 on the depth chart behind Chris Ivory. Now there's no telling just how far he'll fall. For the time being there's no reason to spend anything more than a late-round flier on Goodson since his playing time was going to be fairly limited to begin with.

Bruce Irvin
Irvin suspended four games
Bruce Irvin, LB, SEA
5/17/2013
News: Seattle defensive end Bruce Irvin has been suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2013 regular season for violating the NFL policy on performance enhancing substances, the team reported Friday. Irvin will be eligible to return to the Seahawks' active roster on Monday, Sept. 30 following the team's Sept. 29 game against the Texans. Irvin is eligible to participate in all offseason and preseason practices and games. "I want to apologize to my teammates, coaches and Seahawks fans for making a mistake when I took a substance that is prohibited in the NFL without a medical exemption," Irvin said in a statement. "I am extremely disappointed in the poor judgment I showed and take full responsibility for my actions. I will not appeal the discipline and instead will focus my energy on preparing for the season so I can begin earning your trust and respect again. I look forward to contributing to the team the moment I return."
Analysis: Irvin had a solid year in 2012 with eight sacks. He didn't provide much else with only 16 total tackles and one fumble recovery, but he now will miss the first four games of the season. He is only worth drafting with a late-round flier in IDP leagues.

Josh Cribbs
Cribbs still not healthy
Josh Cribbs, WR, OAK
5/17/2013
News: The Raiders official team website reports that newly signed receiver Josh Cribbs hopes to have a role on offense as much as just being a return man. "Definitely. I feel like it’s a definite possibility for competition at that position," Cribbs said. "At this point, my job is to come in and be a special teams' guru to help solidify our special teams unit in the NFL and to raise our goals and our standards. If we do that, we will become an elite unit." Cribbs also addressed the health of his knee. "I’m doing well," Cribbs said. "If we were lining up to play football in June then it would be a hot topic. I will be ready to play football when it’s time to play football, and I think that is the important thing."
Analysis: It sounds like Cribbs is still dealing with his knee issue, but he should be ready for the start of training camp. He also could see time at receiver, but he'll have to prove himself first. He's not worth drafting in standard leagues, but he could be worth a late-round flier in leagues where you get points for return yardage.

Matt Ryan
Ryan speaks on O-line
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
5/17/2013
News: Matt Ryan's receiving threats are well documented and the Falcons' run game got a strong upgrade in Steven Jackson. But the offensive line is undergoing some changes as center Todd McClure retired and Tyson Clabo was released. Ryan says not to worry about it. "We've got a guy in Peter Konz that played guard for us last year, but during practice, I got a lot of snaps with Peter. Joe Hawley has played a little bit for us when Todd’s been out for a series or two throughout games the last couple of years. I’ll be fine. We’ll be fine with those guys in terms of the snap," Ryan told 790 The Zone in Atlanta. "It’s a little different and that takes some getting used to so it becomes something you don’t even think about. ... We've got Mike Johnson who has played a number of different roles for us. Then a young guy like Lamar Holmes, he’s a guy we drafted high last year that we feel really good about. He’s extremely talented and I think he’s beginning to learn the offense more and more and this offseason has been productive for him. I’m excited about those guys. I think they’re fully capable of coming in and playing good football for us. They just need to do it."
Analysis: The Falcons' offensive line is actually a significant factor for Ryan. Last season when he was not under pressure and not blitzed he completed over 70 percent of his passes. When he was blitzed or under pressure that completion percentage fell to under 62 percent according to Pro Football Focus. That's probably typical for most quarterbacks but we've seen passers' numbers completely decline when they're under duress (think of Arizona last year, Chicago and St. Louis in years past). Granted, Ryan's a very talented passer and the O-line shouldn't be what does him in, it's just something to watch in camp this summer. He remains a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback who will fall to Round 4 in drafts this summer.

Falcons
Ryan speaks on O-line
Falcons, TQB ATL,
5/17/2013
News: Matt Ryan's receiving threats are well documented and the Falcons' run game got a strong upgrade in Steven Jackson. But the offensive line is undergoing some changes as center Todd McClure retired and Tyson Clabo was released. Ryan says not to worry about it. "We've got a guy in Peter Konz that played guard for us last year, but during practice, I got a lot of snaps with Peter. Joe Hawley has played a little bit for us when Todd’s been out for a series or two throughout games the last couple of years. I’ll be fine. We’ll be fine with those guys in terms of the snap," Ryan told 790 The Zone in Atlanta. "It’s a little different and that takes some getting used to so it becomes something you don’t even think about. ... We've got Mike Johnson who has played a number of different roles for us. Then a young guy like Lamar Holmes, he’s a guy we drafted high last year that we feel really good about. He’s extremely talented and I think he’s beginning to learn the offense more and more and this offseason has been productive for him. I’m excited about those guys. I think they’re fully capable of coming in and playing good football for us. They just need to do it."
Analysis: The Falcons' offensive line is actually a significant factor for Ryan. Last season when he was not under pressure and not blitzed he completed over 70 percent of his passes. When he was blitzed or under pressure that completion percentage fell to under 62 percent according to Pro Football Focus. That's probably typical for most quarterbacks but we've seen passers' numbers completely decline when they're under duress (think of Arizona last year, Chicago and St. Louis in years past). Granted, Ryan's a very talented passer and the O-line shouldn't be what does him in, it's just something to watch in camp this summer. He remains a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback who will fall to Round 4 in drafts this summer.

Kendall Wright
Wright in better shape
Kendall Wright, WR, TEN
5/17/2013
News: The Titans official website reports that receiver Kendall Wright has never felt better physically. “I’m in the best shape I’ve ever been,” Wright said. The second-year receiver is tipping the scales around 187 pounds, approximately 14 pounds lighter than when he arrived last year. Wright attributed part of the transformation to workouts at Baylor after his rookie campaign ended. A bigger difference maker, however, may have been his routes through grocery stores that passed by junk food. “For the most part, it wasn’t about the running,” Wright said. “I just started taking care of my body and eating right. I wasn’t eating right at all. I was eating a lot of junk food because that’s what I like and that’s what I’d buy, but I cut down on that and just started eating right. When you don’t buy it, you’re not going to eat it, so I just stopped buying it.”
Analysis: Wright finished his rookie season with 64 catches for 626 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games. He enters this season with the chance to start for the Titans, and we like him as a key reserve receiver with upside. Plan on drafting Wright with a mid-round pick.

Thomas Keiser
Keiser rumbles to Bolts
Thomas Keiser, LB, CAR
5/17/2013
News: Days after his release from the Panthers, the Chargers have signed linebacker Thomas Keiser.
Analysis: Keiser played in four games last year before landing on IR with an elbow injury. He'll try and help replace Melvin Ingram in the team's pass rush. He's unlikely to be a relevant Fantasy option.

Brian Hoyer
Browns ink QB Hoyer
Brian Hoyer, QB, ARI
5/17/2013
News: The Browns have signed quarterback Brian Hoyer, according to multiple reports.
Analysis: Hoyer is a dark horse candidate to start for the Browns and probably has a better chance to be their backup. He'll start camp behind Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell on the depth chart. Only Hoyer's relatives will draft him in Fantasy.

 
 
 
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