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Dave Richard

History Lessons: Lynch in a pinch

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Fantasy owners weren't sure what to expect from Marshawn Lynch last week against the Dolphins. After all, he was coming off of a three-game suspension and joining a red-hot Fred Jackson in the Bills' backfield. He disappointed with four rushing yards but made some hay with 43 yards through the air.

The more encouraging sign is that he had just one fewer carry than Jackson (his eight to Jackson's nine) and actually caught two more passes than Jackson (his five to Jackson's three). Some people believed that Lynch's role would be limited as the Bills catered to Jackson, but it's clear that they're splitting the work.

Fantasy Football - History Lessons: Lynch in a pinch : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

This week, history indicates that Lynch should not only split the work but split up the Browns. Last year, while sharing the ball with Jackson, Lynch crushed Cleveland at home for 119 rush yards and 58 receiving yards with a touchdown catch. He faces those same Browns again in Week 5, though this time they're actually worse than last season! The Browns are ranked 31st against the run, giving up an average of 176.8 rush yards per game. They've also given up a league-worst eight touchdowns on the ground this season. Sure, the Browns fended off Cedric Benson last week, but before Week 4 they yielded at least two rushing scores in every game.

With Lynch shaking off some rust in Week 4, expect him and Jackson to run all over the Browns early and often in Week 5, especially since the Bills need to give quarterback Trent Edwards a bit of a rest after getting destroyed over the last two weeks. Don't be surprised to see the Bills run the ball at least 30 times, which means Lynch and Jackson should post great stats, with Lynch the better of the two.

Receiver vs. cornerback, teacher vs. student

It's always interesting when one of Bill Belichick's former assistants gets to face him, and that's what we'll get when the Broncos host the Patriots in Week 5. Josh McDaniels, the Patriots' former offensive coordinator, has the Broncos out fast at 4-0 and will try to make it 5-0 against New England.

This is an interesting game with plenty of storylines and history.

Randy Moss vs. Champ Bailey

2008 at New England: Moss steamrolls Bailey's Broncos for 69 yards on five catches and two touchdowns, but Bailey left the game in the first half with a groin pull. Before he left, Moss had two catches for 18 yards.

2006 at Denver: As a Raider, Moss was blanketed and had an awful quarterback in Andrew Walter throwing to him. He finished with 86 yards on five catches, but his biggest gain -- a 51-yard catch -- came when he beat Bailey as part of double coverage.

2006 at Oakland: Moss gets one catch for 8 yards. Yawn.

2005 at Oakland: Moss scored on Bailey's Broncos, but not on Bailey. His 29-yard touchdown catch came in double coverage on the opposite side of the field from Bailey. He finished the game with six catches for 87 yards with the score. Twenty-four of those yards came directly against Bailey.

2005 at Denver: Twenty of Moss' 72 yards came directly against Bailey. He, nor his Raiders, scored a touchdown in the game.

We'd tell you about the matchups these two had against each other when Moss was in Minnesota and Bailey in Washington, but none exist. The Redskins and Vikings didn't play each other during Bailey's stint in D.C.

Bill Belichick vs. Mike Nolan

The new Broncos defensive architect is Mike Nolan, who has faced Bill Belichick-coached teams a number of times over his career.

1994 at Cleveland: Belichick's Browns lost to Nolan's Giants, 16-13. Vinny Testaverde threw two interceptions; Leroy Hoard rumbled for a touchdown and totaled 61 yards on 15 total touches.

2000 at N.Y. Jets: Belichick's Patriots lost to Nolan's Jets, 20-19. The Patriots tried to run at the Jets as Kevin Faulk rushed 21 times for 82 yards (also caught four passes for 23 yards). Drew Bledsoe threw the only touchdown.

2000 at New England: Belichick's Patriots lost to Nolan's Jets, 34-17. Drew Bledsoe threw three interceptions but ran for a score, as did Kevin Faulk.

2004 at New England: Belichick's Patriots beat Nolan's Ravens, 24-3. New England got it all done on the ground with Corey Dillon carrying 30 times for 123 yards and a touchdown -- and yes, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed and then-Baltimore linebacker Adalius Thomas were playing in the game. Tom Brady was harrassed, completing just 15 of 30 passes while not throwing a touchdown or an interception.

2008 at San Francisco: Belichick's Patriots beat Nolan's 49ers, 30-21. Kevin Faulk scored twice on the ground, Randy Moss had over 100 yards with a score of his own from Matt Cassel, who threw two interceptions.

Funny that the name that keeps coming up here is Kevin Faulk. The versatile veteran has 40 carries for 147 yards and three scores with 13 catches for 79 yards in the games he's gone up against Nolan-coached defenses. Only in the game against Nolan's Ravens was he not much of a factor.

Bill Belichick vs. Josh McDaniels

Obviously, Josh McDaniels has only coached against Belichick in Patriot practices. Their meeting on Sunday will be their first as opposing coaches.

We suspect that the Patriots defense will have a pretty big advantage in the game. After all, who knows McDaniels' tendencies better than New England? A similar advantage has helped the Patriots to a 6-2 record all-time against coaches who left Belichick's stable for a team of their own. That specifically does not bode well for the Broncos' offense since that's the side of the ball where McDaniels earned his reputation.

Frown on Brown?

Ronnie Brown used to own the Jets. In three games from 2006-07, Brown rushed for at least 110 yards per game with four total touchdowns. But he struggled against the Jets last year, barely touching the ball in two games and failing to score. He had 17 carries for 80 yards and seven catches for 43 yards combined -- a tribute to the Jets' vaunted front seven.

There's more -- Rex Ryan has had Brown's number also. Like many other players, Ryan got a good look at Brown twice last season as defensive coordinator of the Ravens. Brown ran against the Ravens twice, getting 27 yards on 13 carries in the regular season and 19 yards on 12 carries in the postseason. Brown fared a little better through the air in the postseason meeting, catching six passes for 43 yards with a score, but the bottom line is that Ryan stuffed Brown, including when he lined up in the Wildcat.

Now the Jets will get a look at Brown again, and this time they're packing one of the best defenses in the league on their trip to South Florida. They didn't do that last week as the Saints were able to push them around in the second half, but the Jets still have allowed just two rushing touchdowns on the year. Furthermore, Brown hasn't posted 100-yard games in back-to-back weeks since coming back from his 2007 ACL injury (he had a bye between his Week 3 and Week 5 100-yard games last season). Brown steamrolled the Bills for 115 yards and two touchdowns last week.

History says these players will enjoy Week 5 ...
Dallas Clark Two TDs last year, three in last two at Tennessee
Mark Clayton 100 yards and/or TD in each of last three vs. Cincy
Jerricho Cotchery TD in each of last two games at Miami (130 total yards)
Joe Flacco 280 yards, 2 TDs in last game vs. Cincinnati
Jerome Harrison 101 total yards, TD last year at Buffalo
Chris Johnson 96 total yards, TD in one '08 game vs. Colts
Thomas Jones Two TDs, three 100-total-yard games in last four vs. MIA
Peyton Manning Four total TDs, two INTs in two '08 games vs. Titans
Derrick Mason 91 yards, TD in last game against Bengals
Leon Washington Three TDs in last three against Dolphins
Wes Welker TD, 63 yards last year against Broncos
LenDale White Two TDs at home vs. Colts last season
History tells a sad story for these players ...
Joseph Addai Two TDs, no 100-total-yard games in career vs. TEN
Cedric Benson 10 car., 17 yards in one game vs. BAL
Trent Edwards One TD, three INTs last year vs. Browns
Kerry Collins No TDs vs. Colts since joining Titans
Justin Gage One catch (6 yards) last year vs. Colts
Ted Ginn Jr. Eight grabs, 122 yards, one TD in four career games vs. NYJ
Todd Heap One TD, no 50-yard games in last five vs. CIN
Dustin Keller Two catches, 24 yards in two '08 games vs. Dolphins
Brandon Marshall Six catches, 77 yards, no TDs last year vs. Pats
Chad Ochocinco One TD, no 100-yard games in last six vs. BAL
Carson Palmer Four TDs in last five overall vs. Ravens
Ray Rice 33 car., 105 yards, no TDs in two '08 games vs. CIN
Reggie Wayne No TDs, no 100-yard games in last five vs. Titans
Ricky Williams 74 total rush yards in two games vs. NYJ last season

How do you think history will treat you? E-mail your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: History Lessons ing the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll get to as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

Kevin Smith
Smith wants return to Lions
Kevin Smith, RB, DET
2/10/2012
News: According to mlive.com, impending free agent RB Kevin Smith would like to return to the Lions in 2012. Smith, 25, re-signed with Detroit last November and had four starts in seven games. He finished the regular season with 72 carries for 356 yards and four touchdowns, plus had 22 receptions for 179 yards and three scores. "In every interview that I've done, even though I'm a free agent, I've referred to the team and me as us," Smith said. "I'm on the Lions roster in my opinion until I'm not on the Lions roster. That says it all."
Analysis: Smith is a former third-round selection by Detroit in 2008. He showed promise as a rookie, gaining 976 yards and scoring eight touchdowns on 238 carries. He started 13 games in 2009 before suffering a season-ending injury to his left knee. He rushed for 747 yards and four touchdowns prior to his injury. Smith was phased out of the offense with the arrival of Jahvid Best in 2010. Detroit decided not to make him an offer when he became a restricted free agent after that season. After Best sustained a season-ending concussion last season, Detroit re-signed Smith. We'll find out if he can return to the Lions, who also have second-year RB Mikel Leshoure, who also is recovering from a season-ending Achilles tendon injury sustained in the preseason. Keep an eye on what happens with Smith, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick if he's back in Detroit.

 
 
 
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