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Fantasy & Reality: What's the deal with dealing?

Dave Richard
Senior Fantasy Writer
  •  

Bill Parcells once famously said, "You are what your record says you are." It holds true in the NFL, and it holds true in Fantasy Football.

The NFL's deadline for trades is this Tuesday, which means teams who know that they're not going anywhere will consider dealing off attractive players to help those teams who know that they are going somewhere. Though trade deadlines vary from Fantasy league to league, chances are that your league's trading period won't end for at least another month, so you're not under the same pressure that NFL general managers are under to make a deal.

Now nobody is going to make a deal that will hurt their team. That's just silly, not to mention against the rules. So there's a lot of mixing and matching that needs to go down for one Fantasy team to strike a deal with another. When I look to make a trade, I keep the following checklist in mind:

• What do I need?

• What can I deal?

• Who in my league needs what I can deal that has what I need?

Unlike the Eagles' loss in Oakland, this makes sense. To make a trade in Fantasy work, your supply must generally be someone else's demand, and vice versa. It's actually a bit of a challenge, but it's worth the work if you want to take the next step in contending for a playoff berth. Prioritize your list of needs, make note of who you can part with and then seek out a partner. By the way, the shorter your needs are and the more trade bait you have make for definite signs as to how good (or bad) your Fantasy team is.

Fantasy Football - Fantasy & Reality: What's the deal with dealing? : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

The chain-of-command in Fantasy Football when it comes to trades typically looks like this: The closer your team is to a playoff berth, the more likely you'll want to trade two or three players for one stud. And the closer you are to the bottom of the standings, the more willing you might be to trade a stud for multiple players to fill holes in your lineup. After all, it will only be studs that good teams will want in trade, and the good teams will have the good players to give for those studs. It can work the other way depending on the owners involved in the trade, but the general idea is that to improve your lineup, you'll take more good players for one very good player. There's also the stud-for-stud deals that go down across leagues, too.

Which teams in your league are good trade partners? I always prefer to start my trade negotiations with teams with bad records first. They're hanging by a thread and looking to do anything to improve. They're not complacent like those teams with a winning record. Remember, the owners who are 6-0 or 5-1 feel like they're making all the right moves, so they'll hesitate to make a trade unless it's a no-brainer. If you're one of these desperate teams, you're probably in line to move one real good player for a lesser option at his position along with another decent starter or backup.

When making the pitch to an owner about a player, don't tiptoe around the issue. Make your intentions clear to the owner you'd like to deal with and show right away that you're interested in making a fair offer. Never, ever make a trade offer that you would never accept if you were the other team (example, from Fantasy Football Today: Larry Fitzgerald for Darren Sproles). Sometimes, the best plan of attack is to contact the owner and say, "I'd like Player X, is there anyone you like on my team?" Maybe have the owner e-mail you a list of the players he likes, and the trade should work itself from there.

I also have a "Sunday morning" rule with my trades. All offers I make are on the table until Sunday morning, when I take them off. Never leave a trade offer on the table after kickoff when an injury or good performance could change the value of a player in the deal.

That should cover any questions you have about making a trade -- except for one: Who the heck do I trade for and trade away?!

I'd be awful if I didn't tell you. But that's what our Strategy Session focuses on, so keep reading. Believe me, Week 6 had no shortage of amazing football that we need to talk about first.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.

Fantasy: Matt Hasselbeck is a must-start Fantasy option. Do you guys even care if I explain this one away? I mean, the guy had the perfect matchup at home coming off of a four-touchdown performance. It seemed like a no-brainer, but instead it was a mess. Hasselbeck didn't get the ball until three minutes left in the first quarter, and the score was 14-0. The Cardinals blitzed him and his underperforming O-line and did a solid job limiting his receivers for the rest of the game since the Seahawks were one-dimensional. Worse yet, Hasselbeck said after the game that the Seahawks "defined" inconsistent, adding, "You don't know which team is going to show up." Great vote of confidence, Matt!

Reality: Tennessee's secondary is toasted cookies, and their run defense is following suit. If you want more on Brady's performance, click here. But how about some praise for Laurence Maroney, who seems to have a breakout game like this once per season? I've liked Maroney's talent but hated his quasi-permanent spot in Bill Belichick's dog house. The only reason why he was able to get so many carries was because Sammy Morris left the game with a knee injury, but perhaps he can take this chance and run out of that dog house. It goes without saying that Maroney will be a hot waiver-wire addition this week, especially since he might see 15 or more carries against the Bucs in London in Week 7.

Oh, by the way ... the Seahawks were at home off a big win against the league's worst pass defense. The Patriots were at home off a loss against the league's second-to-worst pass defense. The reasoning in recommending both quarterbacks was the same, but two totally different results. I'm just as sick about it as you are.

Fantasy: The Eagles will have a cakewalk against the Raiders. Even though JaMarcus Russell had two interceptions, the Eagles couldn't control the clock and missed on 14 of 16 third downs. Donovan McNabb was all over the place, partially because the Eagles lost left tackle Jason Peters to an injury and backup King Dunlap looked like Winston Justice circa 2007. Plus, David Akers missed two field goals.

Reality: Fantasy owners of Matt Forte have a problem. It's a triple whammy for Forte: Not only is he not quite as explosive as last season, but his offensive line run blocks like I diet and Jay Cutler is throwing more than expected. Cutler's on pace to attempt 550 passes, which would be the second-most in his career and a franchise record. Forte has good enough matchups against the Ohio teams over the next two weeks before he starts a stretch from Week 9 to 12 where we'd be stunned if he had 350 yards total in those games. If you own him and he has a couple of good games in the near future, or if you get a good offer for him, hit the eject button and pawn him off. More on this later.

Fantasy: The Jets defense is one of the best in the league. It's going to get ugly for the Jets -- not only did they total one sack, one forced fumble and one interception against arguably the second-worst offense in the NFL with their backup quarterback under center, but they couldn't beat the Bills, period. They also lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins to what appears to be a serious leg or knee injury, and that could really hurt them. The silver lining is that they play at Oakland next week, though I suppose that's not a cupcake matchup right now. Their hands will be full following Week 7.

Reality: Sidney Rice shows up in games when Brett Favre needs to throw. How's this for telling: Rice not only led all Vikings with six catches and 176 yards, but he also led the team in targets with seven (catching six of seven passes thrown your way is impressive too). Quick study: Rice has done his best at home with this big game and a touchdown in the Vikings' other two home games. Outdoors on grass? Nothing big; his last touchdown on grass came in Week 1 last season and it was only the second in his career. Still, you have to figure that Favre will have to throw his way against the Steelers in Pittsburgh next week.

Strategy session

Over the next seven weeks, which teams will have a good schedule and which teams will have a tough schedule?

Believe it or not, this used to be a chore to figure out, but thanks to our Interactive Defensive Matchup Tracker, it's a piece of cake.

The following teams have a good schedule ahead:

Green Bay Packers
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
@CLE MIN @TB DAL SF @DET BAL

It looks a little deceiving with the Vikings and Ravens on the docket, but the Packers should be able to string together some good offensive performances. One key: They'll have to improve their offensive line to make Ryan Grant a threat. But the passing game should be fine.

Indianapolis Colts
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
@STL SF HOU NE @BAL @HOU TEN

It goes without saying that Colts' players are hot commodities, but we told you before the season even started that they had a great schedule. Not only will they embark on a three-game homestand after a Week 7 game at St. Louis, but they have it easy pretty much for the rest of the way, and that includes a Week 11 game at Baltimore.

Oakland Raiders
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
NYJ @SD bye KC CIN @DAL @PIT

The Raiders' next four games are actually decent for them, especially if they can build off of their Week 6 upset over the Eagles. Depending on who you can drop, take a look at tight end Zach Miller, running back Justin Fargas, wide receiver Chaz Schilens and ... dare I say ... Darren McFadden as cheap waiver-wire pickups that could turn into decent low-end starters, at least until their Week 12 game when they play at Dallas on a short week, followed by the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans Saints
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
@MIA ATL CAR @STL @TB NE @WAS

The Dolphins are the closest thing to a stiff challenge the Saints will have over their next seven games, especially against the pass. Better yet, the Saints' schedule for the rest of the season is good. A Fantasy team made up of nothing but Saints could be good enough to win leagues.

New York Jets
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
@OAK MIA bye JAC @NE CAR @BUF (TOR)

The Jets' defense might be in disarray, and the offense has been harpooned by its own rookie quarterback, but there are still some appealing Fantasy options on this team. That combined with this schedule makes the Jets' premier players useful guys to target. Granted, that's pretty much limited to Thomas Jones and Braylon Edwards, but they could really do well.

San Diego Chargers
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
@KC OAK @NYG PHI @DEN KC @CLE

Two games against the Chiefs, one against the Raiders and one against the Browns? Looks mighty inviting. Plus, the game in New York might be like the Giants-Saints tilt from Week 6.

The following teams have a tough schedule ahead:

Baltimore Ravens
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
bye DEN @CIN @CLE IND PIT @GB

Tough to consider trading away any Ravens after their offense has exploded, but their schedule is rough. Their next three home games are against AFC teams with playoff aspirations and solid defenses, and two of their next three road games are against teams that will at least keep pace with them offensively and defensively. Only that Browns game in Week 10 looks like a juicy meatball. Throw in that Week 7 bye that guarantees you a zero from your Ravens, and perhaps trading in Joe Flacco or Ray Rice while their value is sky-high might be a decent decision.

Carolina Panthers
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
BUF @ARI @NO ATL MIA @NYJ TB

The Panthers have an easy one in Week 7 when they host the Bills -- they should wind up being 3-3 -- but it's tough sledding until Week 13 from there. You know how Steve Smith has recently made some noise about not being an asset to the Panthers anymore? Maybe he shouldn't be an asset to your Fantasy team, either.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
MIN bye @DEN CIN @KC @BAL OAK

The Steelers are off to a hot start thanks in part to their schedule, as they've had great stats in their wins against the Titans, Chargers, Lions and Browns. No incredible defenses there, and they were pretty pedestrian in their losses to the Bears and Bengals. What particularly stands out are the pass rushes that the Steelers' offensive line will be taking on, and that could put a hurt on Ben Roethlisberger's stats. Granted, he's been a machine this year, but with three of his six upcoming games against challenging defenses and a bye week mixed in, there could be a letdown. I wouldn't sell the best Steelers options for a handful of magic beans -- expect a good deal for them -- but there might be some rough patches coming up.

St. Louis Rams
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
IND @DET bye NO ARI SEA @CHI

When we're talking about the Rams, we're really only talking about Steven Jackson. He should shine in Weeks 8 and 12, but the rest of the schedule looks gloomy. Expecting more games with 100 total yards is one thing, and frankly that's good consistency for Fantasy, but he's not about to start racking up a ton of touchdowns, particularly after failing to score at all this season. If you have good depth at running back then you could afford to part ways with Jackson.

Parting shots

• If the Ravens-Vikings game from Week 6 was a Super Bowl, where would it rank all-time? That's an instant classic if you ask me. And I've talked so much about the Ravens this season that I couldn't start this column with them today, but I'm so impressed with them even though they lost.

Ray Rice is meeting expectations. Joe Flacco is exceeding expectations. Derrick Mason proved that last week was a farce. Yeah, it's hard for me to write what I wrote above about them being possible guys to deal off, and I wouldn't blame you if you kept them, because they've been so good. Really, Flacco was a field goal away from leading the Ravens to one of the best comebacks in their history. It cannot be overstated how good of a job the Ravens did coming back from a bad deficit and a bad start against a great Vikings defense.

• The expiration date on the Willis McGahee milk has long passed.

• I've said it before and I'll say it again: Pass rush is everything. Bengals fans are probably going to see that really soon.

• How about the Miles Austin-Jeremy Maclin decision people had to make last week? Both were worth a robust zero in standard-scoring leagues (Austin was off). At least Maclin was targeted seven times, hopefully a good sign for the future.

• Is it just me, or is this finally the year where there is an abundance of really good tight ends? Owen Daniels, Heath Miller and Visanthe Shiancoe have been tearing it up -- and those are just the late-round/waiver wire guys!

• Colts-Saints Super Bowl, anyone?

• I got a feeling (woo hoo) that the NFL trade deadline day will be busier than ever. Stay close to your waiver wires on Tuesday.

Dave is nowhere near as hip as he makes himself out to be, but he tries to know his football. Drop him a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. If you do write him, be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, if you'd rather use something cool like Twitter to follow Dave, find him @daverichard.

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Player News
Robert Griffin III
Griffin to be ready by camp?
Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
11:54 AM
News: Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan suggested Thursday that quarterback Robert Griffin III has a chance to be ready for the start of training camp. "We're hoping," he said. "He's working extremely hard." Shanahan also said he wouldn't be comfortable starting Griffin without some offseason or preseason work. Griffin was spotted by NFL Network dropping back on passes to receivers while wearing a helmet along with a brace on his right knee on Thursday.
Analysis: It would be incredible for RG3 to be ready to go by late July, less than seven months after getting hurt. If the Redskins approach the injury with the long-term picture in mind then they might not rush him back unless they were convinced he was totally healthy. That seems risky, but for now any positive progress is great for prospective Fantasy owners. Here's a gameplan: Draft Griffin with a pick in Round 7 or 8 and pair him with Carson Palmer in the final rounds. Palmer has a great early-season schedule and the Cardinals take on the Panthers in Week 5 when the Redskins are on bye. We'll keep you posted on RG3.

Pierre Garcon
Shanahan: Garcon had surgery
Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS
1:41 PM
News: Mike Shanahan disclosed Thursday that wide receiver Pierre Garcon had chest surgery this offseason, but the Washington Times clarified it as a minor procedure on his labrum, which is in the shoulder . It appears Garcon is not a candidate to miss any serious playing time, however. "I think he's really unbelievable. He's come back so fast ..." Shanahan said of his receiver. "lifting weights he shouldn't be able to lift."
Analysis: Garcon is also still battling a toe injury that capsized much of his first year in D.C. As long as he's healthy for the start of the season he's got plenty of upside to offer Fantasy owners. Garcon finished last year averaging 14.4 yards per catch, the second-highest average in his career, but he had a four-year-low 44 receptions with a three-year-worst four scores. Staying healthy is obviously the most important thing he can do to keep him relevant in Fantasy Football but one recurrence of the toe injury could wipe out several games. If he can stay upright -- and assuming quarterback Robert Griffin III is healthy with his knee -- Garcon can be considered a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a mid-round pick.

James Casey
Casey has knee surgery
James Casey, TE, PHI
11:42 AM
News: USA Today reports that Eagles tight end James Casey will undergo arthroscopic surgery to clean out loose cartilage his right knee and will be out of action for the rest of the spring. A team spokesman said Casey should be ready to go by the start of training camp. Casey signed a three-year deal with $14.5 million as one of the first additions for the Eagles in a busy opening few days in free agency. The former Texans fullback/tight end is expected to play a key role in coach Chip Kelly's offense.
Analysis: Casey had career-highs with 34 receptions, 330 yards and three touchdowns last year, numbers that could spike with the Eagles because of the expected design of the offense and the up-tempo style that will result in more snaps. Like any player getting used to Kelly's offense, Casey would surely benefit from more reps through the rest of organized team activities and minicamp, so being sidelined for the next month isn't ideal. Still, if all goes as well as planned, Casey should get plenty of time on the field in July and August as long as he's healthy. He's not worth drafting in most leagues, but Casey is someone to monitor as a potential waiver wire addition if he's fine as expected following this procedure.

Peyton Manning
Manning to CBS: My arm is stronger
Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
11:34 AM
News: In an exclusive Q&A with CBSSports.com NFL Columnist Pete Prisco, Peyton Manning admitted to being nervous about his arm as far back as June 2011 when he had a hard time throwing at all, then again last season when he forced some things in a road game at Atlanta. But a year removed from rehabbing his arm, Manning sounds confident in his skills. "I feel much more comfortable than I was last year. I am stronger than I was last year. I am throwing the ball better now in May of 2013 than I did in May of 2012 -- significantly better," he said. "I got better throughout the season. I am not doing the monthly update reports anymore. I am past that."
Analysis: The Broncos will attempt to move into a more up-tempo approach this season and added Wes Welker to an already stacked receiving corps. Manning should be in for a very good season, perhaps even better than the one he had last year. Manning is a candidate for 300 yards and at least two scores every week. He should be considered an elite passer worth a pick between the middle of Round 2 and the end of Round 3, depending on your league's size and scoring system.

Trent Richardson
Richardson misses practice
Trent Richardson, RB, CLE
10:57 AM
News: Browns coach Rob Chudzinski comfirmed running back Trent Richardson missed practice Thursday with a lower leg muscle pull. "It's precautionary," Chudzinski said. "We are holding him out. He may miss minicamp in a week and a half. I'm not sure, we'll just take it day-by-day."
Analysis: The Browns can't take chances with their prized running back, particularly since he'll be featured in an offense that will lean heavily on him. Richardson established himself as one of the top young running backs in the league last season with 267 carries for 950 yards with 11 touchdowns and another 51 catches for 367 yards and a score. He should be able to better those stats this season as long as he's healthy. You're taking him with a Top 5 pick.

Wes Welker
Welker expects catches to drop
Wes Welker, WR, DEN
10:55 AM
News: The Denver Post reports that new Broncos receiver Wes Welker doesn't expect to reach his average for receptions, which was 112 over the past six seasons with the Patriots. "If I have to catch 112 balls, that probably means we're in trouble," Welker said. "(The catches) are not the goal," Welker said. "The goal is to go out there and help your team win games. However many catches that is, however many blocks that takes, however many routes I've got to run, whatever. I think we all feel the same way about that." The report says that in New England, the Patriots don't feature their outside receivers. In recent years, they have become a tight end-slot attack. Not so the Broncos. For all the questions about Peyton Manning's arm strength last year, he threw enough outside the numbers to help Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker develop into one of the NFL's top receiver tandems. "I mean, we have two really good guys. We can't ignore them," Welker said. "If one guy is catching 112 balls, the defense is focusing in on that guy. We want defenses focusing on everybody and having to worry about everybody. That was one of the main reasons I came here."
Analysis: Now, before you downgrade Welker, keep in mind it's not like the plan calls for him to go from 112 catches to 50. Manning won't forget his friends, but he won't ignore the new guy, either. Welker's Fantasy value definitely takes a hit going from New England to Denver, but he remains a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick in Round 4 or 5 in standard leagues. In PPR formats, look for Welker to be drafted as early as Round 3 since he should still be around 85-plus catches despite the drop-off with the Broncos.

Percy Harvin
Harvin to get time at running back
Percy Harvin, WR, SEA
10:46 AM
News: The Seattle Times reports that new Seattle receiver Percy Harvin is already making an impact. "His talent level is unbelievable, off the charts," said quarterback Russell Wilson. "He brings an explosive mentality to the game, which a lot of our guys already have. But to have him is truly tremendous. He's a guy that's been one of the best football players in the National Football League for the past several years." Harvin, 24, has averaged 1,800 total yards in four seasons and was on pace for 2,400 yards in 2012 — which would have led the NFL — before an ankle injury ended his season. In those nine games, he had 62 catches — 12 more than any Seahawk — for 677 yards. He also had 96 yards rushing and 574 yards on kickoff returns, including a 105-yard touchdown return. The Seahawks plan to use him similarly. He'll likely line up in the slot as his regular spot, but figures to get used outside, as well, and should see his share of handoffs and kickoff returns. "I'll be moving around — pretty much all around," said Harvin. "There'll be a little bit of running back coming up. But right now, we're just trying to get the foundation set, just running the base plays, and we'll see where it goes from there."
Analysis: We're excited about Harvin in Seattle because he should be able to remain highly involved on offense with better talent around him. Harvin remains a solid No. 1 Fantasy receiver, and he's worth drafting in Round 3 or 4 in the majority of leagues, especially if he continues to see time in the backfield.

Randall Cobb
Rodgers: Cobb could catch 100 passes
Randall Cobb, WR, GB
10:37 AM
News: ESPN reports that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has high expectations for third-year receiver Randall Cobb this season. Last year, Cobb made an enormous jump in his second NFL season. With Greg Jennings out with a torn abdominal muscle, Cobb played 733 snaps and caught a team-high 80 passes for 954 yards and added eight touchdowns. Rodgers thinks Cobb can do more. "I think Randall Cobb is a guy who could be a 100-plus catch guy every year," Rodgers said.
Analysis: We don't think Rodgers is far off with Cobb, who could take the next step in his career in his third season. The Packers as a team have high expectations for Cobb, and we like him as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option. Plan on drafting Cobb in Round 4 in the majority of leagues, with his value slightly higher in PPR formats.

Ryan Williams
Williams played 'scared' in '12
Ryan Williams, RB, ARI
10:08 AM
News: Cardinals running back Ryan Williams told the Arizona Republic that he was more concerned about his knee than his play last season, saying he played scared. Williams came back from a torn patella tendon suffered in 2011 and wasn't ready for the physical punishment that comes with playing running back. Per the story, he got nervous when then-quarterback Kevin Kolb would call '39 toss' because it exposed his right side and his injured knee. The lack of confidence left him "pretty much scared all last year to get the ball in my hands." He added hurting his shoulder was a "blessing" because it allowed him time to get his knee feeling good. Now he says he's not scared anymore. "This is the healthiest I've felt in the past two years," Williams said. "It feels good to be able to run like myself, instinctive and not having to think about what I’m doing, just going out and doing it. I've been working real hard, so things are looking good. My stars are aligned this year."
Analysis: In the story coach Bruce Arians noted that Williams has his mobility back and is someone to watch when the pads come on. Williams has to fight for playing time after the Cardinals drafted Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington and signed Rashard Mendenhall. For now he's no better than a late-round flier but if he looks good in camp and runs with confidence then we could see him getting a decent amount of work.

Michael Crabtree
Harbaugh: Crabtree will play in '13
Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
8:45 AM
News: 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh indicated that Michael Crabtree's torn right Achilles will not cost him the entire season. With surgery already done, it is believed Crabtree will return within six months. Linebacker Patrick Willis said Crabtree went down after making a "simple, normal cut" after going in motion and before starting his route during 7 on 7 drills. "Crab is one of those tough guys. He can get hit hard, and he'll bounce right back up," Willis told the San Jose Mercury News. "Yesterday he stayed down a little longer than normal. You say a little prayer and hope it wasn't as bad as it looked. Unfortunately it is."
Analysis: Crabtree was expected to post ridiculous numbers in 2013 after becoming Colin Kaepernick's go-to receiver last year and his promise to dedicate himself to being the Niners' top receiver this year. Eventually he should return and contribute to the Niners but the earliest it seems he could be back is Week 12 at Washington. If you draft Crabtree with what would now be a late-round pick, you'd have to dedicate a bench spot to him for most of the regular season with no guarantee you'd get him in your lineup at 100 percent, if at all. We'd rather spend the same late-round pick on Anquan Boldin or maybe even A.J. Jenkins knowing both will see a lot of work in San Francisco with Crabtree sidelined.

 
 
 
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