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Dave Richard

Fantasy & Reality: What's the deal with dealing?

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Bill Parcells once famously said, "You are what your record says you are." It holds true in the NFL, and it holds true in Fantasy Football.

The NFL's deadline for trades is this Tuesday, which means teams who know that they're not going anywhere will consider dealing off attractive players to help those teams who know that they are going somewhere. Though trade deadlines vary from Fantasy league to league, chances are that your league's trading period won't end for at least another month, so you're not under the same pressure that NFL general managers are under to make a deal.

Now nobody is going to make a deal that will hurt their team. That's just silly, not to mention against the rules. So there's a lot of mixing and matching that needs to go down for one Fantasy team to strike a deal with another. When I look to make a trade, I keep the following checklist in mind:

• What do I need?

• What can I deal?

• Who in my league needs what I can deal that has what I need?

Unlike the Eagles' loss in Oakland, this makes sense. To make a trade in Fantasy work, your supply must generally be someone else's demand, and vice versa. It's actually a bit of a challenge, but it's worth the work if you want to take the next step in contending for a playoff berth. Prioritize your list of needs, make note of who you can part with and then seek out a partner. By the way, the shorter your needs are and the more trade bait you have make for definite signs as to how good (or bad) your Fantasy team is.

Fantasy Football - Fantasy & Reality: What's the deal with dealing? : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

The chain-of-command in Fantasy Football when it comes to trades typically looks like this: The closer your team is to a playoff berth, the more likely you'll want to trade two or three players for one stud. And the closer you are to the bottom of the standings, the more willing you might be to trade a stud for multiple players to fill holes in your lineup. After all, it will only be studs that good teams will want in trade, and the good teams will have the good players to give for those studs. It can work the other way depending on the owners involved in the trade, but the general idea is that to improve your lineup, you'll take more good players for one very good player. There's also the stud-for-stud deals that go down across leagues, too.

Which teams in your league are good trade partners? I always prefer to start my trade negotiations with teams with bad records first. They're hanging by a thread and looking to do anything to improve. They're not complacent like those teams with a winning record. Remember, the owners who are 6-0 or 5-1 feel like they're making all the right moves, so they'll hesitate to make a trade unless it's a no-brainer. If you're one of these desperate teams, you're probably in line to move one real good player for a lesser option at his position along with another decent starter or backup.

When making the pitch to an owner about a player, don't tiptoe around the issue. Make your intentions clear to the owner you'd like to deal with and show right away that you're interested in making a fair offer. Never, ever make a trade offer that you would never accept if you were the other team (example, from Fantasy Football Today: Larry Fitzgerald for Darren Sproles). Sometimes, the best plan of attack is to contact the owner and say, "I'd like Player X, is there anyone you like on my team?" Maybe have the owner e-mail you a list of the players he likes, and the trade should work itself from there.

I also have a "Sunday morning" rule with my trades. All offers I make are on the table until Sunday morning, when I take them off. Never leave a trade offer on the table after kickoff when an injury or good performance could change the value of a player in the deal.

That should cover any questions you have about making a trade -- except for one: Who the heck do I trade for and trade away?!

I'd be awful if I didn't tell you. But that's what our Strategy Session focuses on, so keep reading. Believe me, Week 6 had no shortage of amazing football that we need to talk about first.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.

Fantasy: Matt Hasselbeck is a must-start Fantasy option. Do you guys even care if I explain this one away? I mean, the guy had the perfect matchup at home coming off of a four-touchdown performance. It seemed like a no-brainer, but instead it was a mess. Hasselbeck didn't get the ball until three minutes left in the first quarter, and the score was 14-0. The Cardinals blitzed him and his underperforming O-line and did a solid job limiting his receivers for the rest of the game since the Seahawks were one-dimensional. Worse yet, Hasselbeck said after the game that the Seahawks "defined" inconsistent, adding, "You don't know which team is going to show up." Great vote of confidence, Matt!

Reality: Tennessee's secondary is toasted cookies, and their run defense is following suit. If you want more on Brady's performance, click here. But how about some praise for Laurence Maroney, who seems to have a breakout game like this once per season? I've liked Maroney's talent but hated his quasi-permanent spot in Bill Belichick's dog house. The only reason why he was able to get so many carries was because Sammy Morris left the game with a knee injury, but perhaps he can take this chance and run out of that dog house. It goes without saying that Maroney will be a hot waiver-wire addition this week, especially since he might see 15 or more carries against the Bucs in London in Week 7.

Oh, by the way ... the Seahawks were at home off a big win against the league's worst pass defense. The Patriots were at home off a loss against the league's second-to-worst pass defense. The reasoning in recommending both quarterbacks was the same, but two totally different results. I'm just as sick about it as you are.

Fantasy: The Eagles will have a cakewalk against the Raiders. Even though JaMarcus Russell had two interceptions, the Eagles couldn't control the clock and missed on 14 of 16 third downs. Donovan McNabb was all over the place, partially because the Eagles lost left tackle Jason Peters to an injury and backup King Dunlap looked like Winston Justice circa 2007. Plus, David Akers missed two field goals.

Reality: Fantasy owners of Matt Forte have a problem. It's a triple whammy for Forte: Not only is he not quite as explosive as last season, but his offensive line run blocks like I diet and Jay Cutler is throwing more than expected. Cutler's on pace to attempt 550 passes, which would be the second-most in his career and a franchise record. Forte has good enough matchups against the Ohio teams over the next two weeks before he starts a stretch from Week 9 to 12 where we'd be stunned if he had 350 yards total in those games. If you own him and he has a couple of good games in the near future, or if you get a good offer for him, hit the eject button and pawn him off. More on this later.

Fantasy: The Jets defense is one of the best in the league. It's going to get ugly for the Jets -- not only did they total one sack, one forced fumble and one interception against arguably the second-worst offense in the NFL with their backup quarterback under center, but they couldn't beat the Bills, period. They also lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins to what appears to be a serious leg or knee injury, and that could really hurt them. The silver lining is that they play at Oakland next week, though I suppose that's not a cupcake matchup right now. Their hands will be full following Week 7.

Reality: Sidney Rice shows up in games when Brett Favre needs to throw. How's this for telling: Rice not only led all Vikings with six catches and 176 yards, but he also led the team in targets with seven (catching six of seven passes thrown your way is impressive too). Quick study: Rice has done his best at home with this big game and a touchdown in the Vikings' other two home games. Outdoors on grass? Nothing big; his last touchdown on grass came in Week 1 last season and it was only the second in his career. Still, you have to figure that Favre will have to throw his way against the Steelers in Pittsburgh next week.

Strategy session

Over the next seven weeks, which teams will have a good schedule and which teams will have a tough schedule?

Believe it or not, this used to be a chore to figure out, but thanks to our Interactive Defensive Matchup Tracker, it's a piece of cake.

The following teams have a good schedule ahead:

Green Bay Packers
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
@CLE MIN @TB DAL SF @DET BAL

It looks a little deceiving with the Vikings and Ravens on the docket, but the Packers should be able to string together some good offensive performances. One key: They'll have to improve their offensive line to make Ryan Grant a threat. But the passing game should be fine.

Indianapolis Colts
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
@STL SF HOU NE @BAL @HOU TEN

It goes without saying that Colts' players are hot commodities, but we told you before the season even started that they had a great schedule. Not only will they embark on a three-game homestand after a Week 7 game at St. Louis, but they have it easy pretty much for the rest of the way, and that includes a Week 11 game at Baltimore.

Oakland Raiders
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
NYJ @SD bye KC CIN @DAL @PIT

The Raiders' next four games are actually decent for them, especially if they can build off of their Week 6 upset over the Eagles. Depending on who you can drop, take a look at tight end Zach Miller, running back Justin Fargas, wide receiver Chaz Schilens and ... dare I say ... Darren McFadden as cheap waiver-wire pickups that could turn into decent low-end starters, at least until their Week 12 game when they play at Dallas on a short week, followed by the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans Saints
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
@MIA ATL CAR @STL @TB NE @WAS

The Dolphins are the closest thing to a stiff challenge the Saints will have over their next seven games, especially against the pass. Better yet, the Saints' schedule for the rest of the season is good. A Fantasy team made up of nothing but Saints could be good enough to win leagues.

New York Jets
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
@OAK MIA bye JAC @NE CAR @BUF (TOR)

The Jets' defense might be in disarray, and the offense has been harpooned by its own rookie quarterback, but there are still some appealing Fantasy options on this team. That combined with this schedule makes the Jets' premier players useful guys to target. Granted, that's pretty much limited to Thomas Jones and Braylon Edwards, but they could really do well.

San Diego Chargers
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
@KC OAK @NYG PHI @DEN KC @CLE

Two games against the Chiefs, one against the Raiders and one against the Browns? Looks mighty inviting. Plus, the game in New York might be like the Giants-Saints tilt from Week 6.

The following teams have a tough schedule ahead:

Baltimore Ravens
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
bye DEN @CIN @CLE IND PIT @GB

Tough to consider trading away any Ravens after their offense has exploded, but their schedule is rough. Their next three home games are against AFC teams with playoff aspirations and solid defenses, and two of their next three road games are against teams that will at least keep pace with them offensively and defensively. Only that Browns game in Week 10 looks like a juicy meatball. Throw in that Week 7 bye that guarantees you a zero from your Ravens, and perhaps trading in Joe Flacco or Ray Rice while their value is sky-high might be a decent decision.

Carolina Panthers
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
BUF @ARI @NO ATL MIA @NYJ TB

The Panthers have an easy one in Week 7 when they host the Bills -- they should wind up being 3-3 -- but it's tough sledding until Week 13 from there. You know how Steve Smith has recently made some noise about not being an asset to the Panthers anymore? Maybe he shouldn't be an asset to your Fantasy team, either.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
MIN bye @DEN CIN @KC @BAL OAK

The Steelers are off to a hot start thanks in part to their schedule, as they've had great stats in their wins against the Titans, Chargers, Lions and Browns. No incredible defenses there, and they were pretty pedestrian in their losses to the Bears and Bengals. What particularly stands out are the pass rushes that the Steelers' offensive line will be taking on, and that could put a hurt on Ben Roethlisberger's stats. Granted, he's been a machine this year, but with three of his six upcoming games against challenging defenses and a bye week mixed in, there could be a letdown. I wouldn't sell the best Steelers options for a handful of magic beans -- expect a good deal for them -- but there might be some rough patches coming up.

St. Louis Rams
Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13
IND @DET bye NO ARI SEA @CHI

When we're talking about the Rams, we're really only talking about Steven Jackson. He should shine in Weeks 8 and 12, but the rest of the schedule looks gloomy. Expecting more games with 100 total yards is one thing, and frankly that's good consistency for Fantasy, but he's not about to start racking up a ton of touchdowns, particularly after failing to score at all this season. If you have good depth at running back then you could afford to part ways with Jackson.

Parting shots

• If the Ravens-Vikings game from Week 6 was a Super Bowl, where would it rank all-time? That's an instant classic if you ask me. And I've talked so much about the Ravens this season that I couldn't start this column with them today, but I'm so impressed with them even though they lost.

Ray Rice is meeting expectations. Joe Flacco is exceeding expectations. Derrick Mason proved that last week was a farce. Yeah, it's hard for me to write what I wrote above about them being possible guys to deal off, and I wouldn't blame you if you kept them, because they've been so good. Really, Flacco was a field goal away from leading the Ravens to one of the best comebacks in their history. It cannot be overstated how good of a job the Ravens did coming back from a bad deficit and a bad start against a great Vikings defense.

• The expiration date on the Willis McGahee milk has long passed.

• I've said it before and I'll say it again: Pass rush is everything. Bengals fans are probably going to see that really soon.

• How about the Miles Austin-Jeremy Maclin decision people had to make last week? Both were worth a robust zero in standard-scoring leagues (Austin was off). At least Maclin was targeted seven times, hopefully a good sign for the future.

• Is it just me, or is this finally the year where there is an abundance of really good tight ends? Owen Daniels, Heath Miller and Visanthe Shiancoe have been tearing it up -- and those are just the late-round/waiver wire guys!

• Colts-Saints Super Bowl, anyone?

• I got a feeling (woo hoo) that the NFL trade deadline day will be busier than ever. Stay close to your waiver wires on Tuesday.

Dave is nowhere near as hip as he makes himself out to be, but he tries to know his football. Drop him a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. If you do write him, be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, if you'd rather use something cool like Twitter to follow Dave, find him @daverichard.

 
 
 
Player News
Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

Kevin Smith
Smith wants return to Lions
Kevin Smith, RB, DET
2/10/2012
News: According to mlive.com, impending free agent RB Kevin Smith would like to return to the Lions in 2012. Smith, 25, re-signed with Detroit last November and had four starts in seven games. He finished the regular season with 72 carries for 356 yards and four touchdowns, plus had 22 receptions for 179 yards and three scores. "In every interview that I've done, even though I'm a free agent, I've referred to the team and me as us," Smith said. "I'm on the Lions roster in my opinion until I'm not on the Lions roster. That says it all."
Analysis: Smith is a former third-round selection by Detroit in 2008. He showed promise as a rookie, gaining 976 yards and scoring eight touchdowns on 238 carries. He started 13 games in 2009 before suffering a season-ending injury to his left knee. He rushed for 747 yards and four touchdowns prior to his injury. Smith was phased out of the offense with the arrival of Jahvid Best in 2010. Detroit decided not to make him an offer when he became a restricted free agent after that season. After Best sustained a season-ending concussion last season, Detroit re-signed Smith. We'll find out if he can return to the Lions, who also have second-year RB Mikel Leshoure, who also is recovering from a season-ending Achilles tendon injury sustained in the preseason. Keep an eye on what happens with Smith, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick if he's back in Detroit.

 
 
 
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