Fantasy & Reality: What's the deal with dealing?
Bill Parcells once famously said, "You are what your record says you are." It holds true in the NFL, and it holds true in Fantasy Football.
The NFL's deadline for trades is this Tuesday, which means teams who know that they're not going anywhere will consider dealing off attractive players to help those teams who know that they are going somewhere. Though trade deadlines vary from Fantasy league to league, chances are that your league's trading period won't end for at least another month, so you're not under the same pressure that NFL general managers are under to make a deal.
Now nobody is going to make a deal that will hurt their team. That's just silly, not to mention against the rules. So there's a lot of mixing and matching that needs to go down for one Fantasy team to strike a deal with another. When I look to make a trade, I keep the following checklist in mind:
• What do I need?
• What can I deal?
• Who in my league needs what I can deal that has what I need?
Unlike the Eagles' loss in Oakland, this makes sense. To make a trade in Fantasy work, your supply must generally be someone else's demand, and vice versa. It's actually a bit of a challenge, but it's worth the work if you want to take the next step in contending for a playoff berth. Prioritize your list of needs, make note of who you can part with and then seek out a partner. By the way, the shorter your needs are and the more trade bait you have make for definite signs as to how good (or bad) your Fantasy team is.
The chain-of-command in Fantasy Football when it comes to trades typically looks like this: The closer your team is to a playoff berth, the more likely you'll want to trade two or three players for one stud. And the closer you are to the bottom of the standings, the more willing you might be to trade a stud for multiple players to fill holes in your lineup. After all, it will only be studs that good teams will want in trade, and the good teams will have the good players to give for those studs. It can work the other way depending on the owners involved in the trade, but the general idea is that to improve your lineup, you'll take more good players for one very good player. There's also the stud-for-stud deals that go down across leagues, too.
Which teams in your league are good trade partners? I always prefer to start my trade negotiations with teams with bad records first. They're hanging by a thread and looking to do anything to improve. They're not complacent like those teams with a winning record. Remember, the owners who are 6-0 or 5-1 feel like they're making all the right moves, so they'll hesitate to make a trade unless it's a no-brainer. If you're one of these desperate teams, you're probably in line to move one real good player for a lesser option at his position along with another decent starter or backup.
When making the pitch to an owner about a player, don't tiptoe around the issue. Make your intentions clear to the owner you'd like to deal with and show right away that you're interested in making a fair offer. Never, ever make a trade offer that you would never accept if you were the other team (example, from Fantasy Football Today: Larry Fitzgerald for Darren Sproles). Sometimes, the best plan of attack is to contact the owner and say, "I'd like Player X, is there anyone you like on my team?" Maybe have the owner e-mail you a list of the players he likes, and the trade should work itself from there.
I also have a "Sunday morning" rule with my trades. All offers I make are on the table until Sunday morning, when I take them off. Never leave a trade offer on the table after kickoff when an injury or good performance could change the value of a player in the deal.
That should cover any questions you have about making a trade -- except for one: Who the heck do I trade for and trade away?!
I'd be awful if I didn't tell you. But that's what our Strategy Session focuses on, so keep reading. Believe me, Week 6 had no shortage of amazing football that we need to talk about first.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: Matt Hasselbeck is a must-start Fantasy option. Do you guys even care if I explain this one away? I mean, the guy had the perfect matchup at home coming off of a four-touchdown performance. It seemed like a no-brainer, but instead it was a mess. Hasselbeck didn't get the ball until three minutes left in the first quarter, and the score was 14-0. The Cardinals blitzed him and his underperforming O-line and did a solid job limiting his receivers for the rest of the game since the Seahawks were one-dimensional. Worse yet, Hasselbeck said after the game that the Seahawks "defined" inconsistent, adding, "You don't know which team is going to show up." Great vote of confidence, Matt!
Reality: Tennessee's secondary is toasted cookies, and their run defense is following suit. If you want more on Brady's performance, click here. But how about some praise for Laurence Maroney, who seems to have a breakout game like this once per season? I've liked Maroney's talent but hated his quasi-permanent spot in Bill Belichick's dog house. The only reason why he was able to get so many carries was because Sammy Morris left the game with a knee injury, but perhaps he can take this chance and run out of that dog house. It goes without saying that Maroney will be a hot waiver-wire addition this week, especially since he might see 15 or more carries against the Bucs in London in Week 7.
Oh, by the way ... the Seahawks were at home off a big win against the league's worst pass defense. The Patriots were at home off a loss against the league's second-to-worst pass defense. The reasoning in recommending both quarterbacks was the same, but two totally different results. I'm just as sick about it as you are.
Fantasy: The Eagles will have a cakewalk against the Raiders. Even though JaMarcus Russell had two interceptions, the Eagles couldn't control the clock and missed on 14 of 16 third downs. Donovan McNabb was all over the place, partially because the Eagles lost left tackle Jason Peters to an injury and backup King Dunlap looked like Winston Justice circa 2007. Plus, David Akers missed two field goals.
Reality: Fantasy owners of Matt Forte have a problem. It's a triple whammy for Forte: Not only is he not quite as explosive as last season, but his offensive line run blocks like I diet and Jay Cutler is throwing more than expected. Cutler's on pace to attempt 550 passes, which would be the second-most in his career and a franchise record. Forte has good enough matchups against the Ohio teams over the next two weeks before he starts a stretch from Week 9 to 12 where we'd be stunned if he had 350 yards total in those games. If you own him and he has a couple of good games in the near future, or if you get a good offer for him, hit the eject button and pawn him off. More on this later.
Fantasy: The Jets defense is one of the best in the league. It's going to get ugly for the Jets -- not only did they total one sack, one forced fumble and one interception against arguably the second-worst offense in the NFL with their backup quarterback under center, but they couldn't beat the Bills, period. They also lost nose tackle Kris Jenkins to what appears to be a serious leg or knee injury, and that could really hurt them. The silver lining is that they play at Oakland next week, though I suppose that's not a cupcake matchup right now. Their hands will be full following Week 7.
Reality: Sidney Rice shows up in games when Brett Favre needs to throw. How's this for telling: Rice not only led all Vikings with six catches and 176 yards, but he also led the team in targets with seven (catching six of seven passes thrown your way is impressive too). Quick study: Rice has done his best at home with this big game and a touchdown in the Vikings' other two home games. Outdoors on grass? Nothing big; his last touchdown on grass came in Week 1 last season and it was only the second in his career. Still, you have to figure that Favre will have to throw his way against the Steelers in Pittsburgh next week.
Strategy session
Over the next seven weeks, which teams will have a good schedule and which teams will have a tough schedule?
Believe it or not, this used to be a chore to figure out, but thanks to our Interactive Defensive Matchup Tracker, it's a piece of cake.
The following teams have a good schedule ahead:
| | ||||||
| Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 |
| @CLE | MIN | @TB | DAL | SF | @DET | BAL |
It looks a little deceiving with the Vikings and Ravens on the docket, but the Packers should be able to string together some good offensive performances. One key: They'll have to improve their offensive line to make Ryan Grant a threat. But the passing game should be fine.
| | ||||||
| Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 |
| @STL | SF | HOU | NE | @BAL | @HOU | TEN |
It goes without saying that Colts' players are hot commodities, but we told you before the season even started that they had a great schedule. Not only will they embark on a three-game homestand after a Week 7 game at St. Louis, but they have it easy pretty much for the rest of the way, and that includes a Week 11 game at Baltimore.
| | ||||||
| Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 |
| NYJ | @SD | bye | KC | CIN | @DAL | @PIT |
The Raiders' next four games are actually decent for them, especially if they can build off of their Week 6 upset over the Eagles. Depending on who you can drop, take a look at tight end Zach Miller, running back Justin Fargas, wide receiver Chaz Schilens and ... dare I say ... Darren McFadden as cheap waiver-wire pickups that could turn into decent low-end starters, at least until their Week 12 game when they play at Dallas on a short week, followed by the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
| | ||||||
| Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 |
| @MIA | ATL | CAR | @STL | @TB | NE | @WAS |
The Dolphins are the closest thing to a stiff challenge the Saints will have over their next seven games, especially against the pass. Better yet, the Saints' schedule for the rest of the season is good. A Fantasy team made up of nothing but Saints could be good enough to win leagues.
| | ||||||
| Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 |
| @OAK | MIA | bye | JAC | @NE | CAR | @BUF (TOR) |
The Jets' defense might be in disarray, and the offense has been harpooned by its own rookie quarterback, but there are still some appealing Fantasy options on this team. That combined with this schedule makes the Jets' premier players useful guys to target. Granted, that's pretty much limited to Thomas Jones and Braylon Edwards, but they could really do well.
| | ||||||
| Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 |
| @KC | OAK | @NYG | PHI | @DEN | KC | @CLE |
Two games against the Chiefs, one against the Raiders and one against the Browns? Looks mighty inviting. Plus, the game in New York might be like the Giants-Saints tilt from Week 6.
The following teams have a tough schedule ahead:
| | ||||||
| Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 |
| bye | DEN | @CIN | @CLE | IND | PIT | @GB |
Tough to consider trading away any Ravens after their offense has exploded, but their schedule is rough. Their next three home games are against AFC teams with playoff aspirations and solid defenses, and two of their next three road games are against teams that will at least keep pace with them offensively and defensively. Only that Browns game in Week 10 looks like a juicy meatball. Throw in that Week 7 bye that guarantees you a zero from your Ravens, and perhaps trading in Joe Flacco or Ray Rice while their value is sky-high might be a decent decision.
| | ||||||
| Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 |
| BUF | @ARI | @NO | ATL | MIA | @NYJ | TB |
The Panthers have an easy one in Week 7 when they host the Bills -- they should wind up being 3-3 -- but it's tough sledding until Week 13 from there. You know how Steve Smith has recently made some noise about not being an asset to the Panthers anymore? Maybe he shouldn't be an asset to your Fantasy team, either.
| | ||||||
| Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 |
| MIN | bye | @DEN | CIN | @KC | @BAL | OAK |
The Steelers are off to a hot start thanks in part to their schedule, as they've had great stats in their wins against the Titans, Chargers, Lions and Browns. No incredible defenses there, and they were pretty pedestrian in their losses to the Bears and Bengals. What particularly stands out are the pass rushes that the Steelers' offensive line will be taking on, and that could put a hurt on Ben Roethlisberger's stats. Granted, he's been a machine this year, but with three of his six upcoming games against challenging defenses and a bye week mixed in, there could be a letdown. I wouldn't sell the best Steelers options for a handful of magic beans -- expect a good deal for them -- but there might be some rough patches coming up.
| | ||||||
| Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 |
| IND | @DET | bye | NO | ARI | SEA | @CHI |
When we're talking about the Rams, we're really only talking about Steven Jackson. He should shine in Weeks 8 and 12, but the rest of the schedule looks gloomy. Expecting more games with 100 total yards is one thing, and frankly that's good consistency for Fantasy, but he's not about to start racking up a ton of touchdowns, particularly after failing to score at all this season. If you have good depth at running back then you could afford to part ways with Jackson.
Parting shots
• If the Ravens-Vikings game from Week 6 was a Super Bowl, where would it rank all-time? That's an instant classic if you ask me. And I've talked so much about the Ravens this season that I couldn't start this column with them today, but I'm so impressed with them even though they lost.
Ray Rice is meeting expectations. Joe Flacco is exceeding expectations. Derrick Mason proved that last week was a farce. Yeah, it's hard for me to write what I wrote above about them being possible guys to deal off, and I wouldn't blame you if you kept them, because they've been so good. Really, Flacco was a field goal away from leading the Ravens to one of the best comebacks in their history. It cannot be overstated how good of a job the Ravens did coming back from a bad deficit and a bad start against a great Vikings defense.
• The expiration date on the Willis McGahee milk has long passed.
• I've said it before and I'll say it again: Pass rush is everything. Bengals fans are probably going to see that really soon.
• How about the Miles Austin-Jeremy Maclin decision people had to make last week? Both were worth a robust zero in standard-scoring leagues (Austin was off). At least Maclin was targeted seven times, hopefully a good sign for the future.
• Is it just me, or is this finally the year where there is an abundance of really good tight ends? Owen Daniels, Heath Miller and Visanthe Shiancoe have been tearing it up -- and those are just the late-round/waiver wire guys!
• Colts-Saints Super Bowl, anyone?
• I got a feeling (woo hoo) that the NFL trade deadline day will be busier than ever. Stay close to your waiver wires on Tuesday.
Dave is nowhere near as hip as he makes himself out to be, but he tries to know his football. Drop him a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. If you do write him, be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, if you'd rather use something cool like Twitter to follow Dave, find him @daverichard.