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Dave Richard

First Response: Something is in the air

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


You expected a big game from Tom Brady. You figured Drew Brees would put up a bunch of yardage and find the end zone a couple of times. You knew Peyton Manning would bash the Rams. And you figured Matt Schaub would keep the ball flying against the 49ers.

There's nothing like the sure-thing quarterback in Fantasy Football, and this year there seems to be more of them than ever. In addition to the four listed above, other passers like Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer are doing their parts to stay in the good graces of Fantasy owners. Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan didn't hold up their ends of the bargain in Week 7, but they typically post good totals too. Tony Romo probably has worked his way into the mix, too.

Carson Palmer's five TDs caught more than 60 percent of his owners by surprise. (US Presswire)  
Carson Palmer's five TDs caught more than 60 percent of his owners by surprise. (US Presswire)  
And we're not even including the likes of Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton or Matt Hasselbeck, all of whom were on bye this week. Nor are we including Brett Favre, who threw for over 300 yards at Pittsburgh but coughed up the ball twice in plays leading to Steelers defensive scores.

We're at a point in Fantasy Football where the supply of not just good quarterbacks -- but great quarterbacks -- is meeting demand. Ten- and 12-team leagues should have enough passers to go around. Previously, owners were making start/sit decisions based on who would be the quarterback who would do good enough. Now owners don't want to leave a three-touchdown passer on their bench while starting a guy who throws two.

Week 7 is all the proof you need that the NFL, now more than ever, is a pass-happy league. Fantasy owners should be elated for it. Seven quarterbacks threw at least three touchdowns. Eight threw for at least 250 yards. None of these quarterbacks are named Ben Roethlisberger or Matt Ryan, meaning that two of the league's premier young passers who typically are leaned on in Fantasy Football to put up big numbers missed out on delivering like their peers.

Teams are taking to the air for many reasons. Quarterbacks are more accurate and capable than ever. Receivers are as talented as ever as they blend size and speed. Cornerbacks and safeties around the league aren't catching up to their levels. Pass rushers are still talented, but so are many of the offensive linemen who block them. Thus, blitz schemes can be beaten. And coaches like many components that passing can give their offenses -- no-huddle versatility and matchup advantages included.

If you don't own a great Fantasy quarterback, you're behind the competition in your league. If you do own one, you're doing fine. Own two? It's time to strike a deal -- but only if someone really needs a quarterback. See, the problem with all these mighty passers is that demand for all but the very elite ones is low. It's almost to the point where having two great quarterbacks is a curse because you're not only yo-yoing between them from week to week but you can't get a fair deal for one of them.

What to do? Sit tight, obviously. It's always better to own two good passers and have one on your bench than for your opponent to start him against you (assuming no one's offering a good deal in trade). Also, football is a brutal game -- people get hurt. When a passer goes down, you can offer help via trade.

We'd say "ditto that" for quarterbacks who get benched, but let's be honest -- is anyone we've named getting benched anytime soon?!

At the very least, it will be fun to watch.

Let's take a look around at the rest of the Week 7 action.

Start of the Week result: Joseph Addai got off to a slow start and really didn't finish with the stats we expected him to have, but the 64 rush yards and rushing touchdown he pulled in was nothing to sneeze at. He would have had some more garbage time stats (rookie rusher Donald Brown got hurt in the first half) but made way for Chad Simpson in the fourth quarter, and Simpson found the end zone. He didn't have a pretty rushing average, and he only caught one pass, but Addai was still fairly productive.

Sit of the Week result: We'll find out Monday when DeSean Jackson does battle with the Redskins. Just a reminder: Jackson caught three total passes against Washington last season for 22 yards and hasn't connected much with Donovan McNabb under center like he did with Kevin Kolb when McNabb was out. And to make matters worse, the Redskins' pass defense has played well this season. If you have Jackson going for your team and need more than eight or nine Fantasy points on Monday, you'll be in trouble.

Insane stat line of the day: Hines Ward entered Week 7 leading the NFL in receiving yards. His totals against a Vikings defense missing its best cornerback? One catch for 3 yards. Part of the problem -- and this goes for all Steelers in Week 7 -- is that the Vikings owned the game clock and the Steelers offense ran 46 plays. A lot of owners were burned by Ward this week.

Out-of-nowhere stat line of the day: Alex Smith, welcome back to Fantasy relevance (not that you were really ever as Fantasy relevant as you are now). The 49ers pulled Shaun Hill in the first half against the Texans down 21-0 and gave Smith the keys to the offense. He gave them some solid play, hitting tight end Vernon Davis three times for touchdowns and nearly bringing the 49ers back to a victory. All told, Smith completed 15 of 22 passes for 206 yards with the three connections to Davis, 16 rush yards and a late interception. Head coach Mike Singletary wouldn't name a starter for Week 8 against the Colts, but you have to figure Smith will get a shot. He might even be worth a look as a flier in deeper leagues in case he keeps up this play, which goes against his career track record before he had shoulder surgery and missed all of 2008.

Guy we were way right about: Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has rediscovered Donald Driver, in turn giving the veteran a Fountain-of-Youth-like resurgence in Fantasy Football. Not only has Driver either scored or had 100 receiving yards in all but two games this season but teammate Greg Jennings is fading fast. Driver did a nice job eating up the Browns secondary on a 71-yard catch-and-run in Week 7, showing he still has plenty of giddyup.

Guy we were way wrong about: Marion Barber not only didn't put up a good rushing average, or find the end zone, or catch a decent amount of passes, but there's growing concern that Felix Jones and Tashard Choice will continue to take big bites out of his production going forward. A distressing stat: Fourteen carries and one catch for the power back in Week 7. That's not enough for a running back drafted early and held on to for a couple of weeks this season while he was hurt. He'll have a good matchup at home vs. the Seahawks in Week 8 to try and make up for this game.

Overachieving defense of the week: The Jets have been on the Fantasy rollercoaster, starting the year as a trendy No. 1 option, then falling flat after getting five sacks in six weeks while struggling to pin down the likes of the Bills. They redeemed themselves this week, albeit against a bad Raiders defense, smacking them for three sacks, two interceptions and a pair of forced fumbles, all the while hanging a zero on them. They even stood up to the Raiders very late with the game decided, shutting them out of the end zone inside of three minutes to play. Expected against the Raiders? Maybe, but for a beleaguered defense, even this was a surprise.

Underachieving defense of the week: The Saints might have beaten the Dolphins in Week 7, but their defense only did so much. New Orleans did not have an answer for the Wildcat and yielded a total of four rushing touchdowns and 128 rush yards to Ricky Williams (three scores!) and Ronnie Brown. They did come up big when it counted -- both of Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne's interceptions were returned for touchdowns -- but their play against the Dolphins run game is going to raise some eyebrows among offensive coordinators. The Saints might have their hands full in Week 8 with Michael Turner.

Names to add to your scout team:

Sam Aiken, wide receiver, New England (two catches, 66 yards, touchdown)
David Clowney, wide receiver, N.Y. Jets (four catches, 79 yards, touchdown)
Shonn Greene, running back, N.Y. Jets (19 carries, 144 yards, 2 TDs)
Brian Hartline, wide receiver, Miami (three catches, 94 yards)
Alex Smith, quarterback, San Francisco (15 of 22 passing, 206 yards, three TDs, interception)
Jason Snelling, running back, Atlanta (seven carries, 68 yards, 10-yard catch)

Injury alerts:

Bernard Berrian, hamstring, considered questionable for Week 8 at Green Bay
Donald Brown, shoulder, considered questionable for Week 8 vs. San Francisco
Jermichael Finley, knee, expected to miss Week 8 vs. Minnesota
Andre Johnson, chest, considered questionable for Week 8 at Buffalo
Leon Washington, broken leg, expected to miss rest of the season

The last word: Let's play a game. Here are the stats for a prominent NFL receiver:

Week 1: Two catches, 46 yards
Week 2: Three catches, 52 yards, TD
Week 3: No catches, no yards
Week 4: Three catches, 60 yards
Week 5: Four catches, 44 yards
Week 6: Three catches, 14 yards
Week 7: Three catches, 27 yards

Before you try and guess the receiver's identity, would you want him on your Fantasy team? Would you even consider starting someone on par with many of the league's low-end wideouts?

The winner got paid $6 million guaranteed before the season, and his team has won two straight games in spite of his poor play.

The player? Terrell Owens of the Buffalo Bills. If you've been worried about dropping him, go ahead. It's clear that he's a shell of his former self and unlikely to turn things around, at least on a consistent basis. Just try not to think about the out-of-nowhere receivers like Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Mike Sims-Walker, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Austin Collie, Mike Wallace, Johnny Knox, Pierre Garcon and others who weren't drafted that you could have picked up in place of T.O. at several points before this week.

What stood out to you this week? How did your Fantasy teams do? Drop us a line and tell us about it at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Week 7 in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll respond to as many as e-mails we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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