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Dave Richard

First Response: Something is in the air

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


You expected a big game from Tom Brady. You figured Drew Brees would put up a bunch of yardage and find the end zone a couple of times. You knew Peyton Manning would bash the Rams. And you figured Matt Schaub would keep the ball flying against the 49ers.

There's nothing like the sure-thing quarterback in Fantasy Football, and this year there seems to be more of them than ever. In addition to the four listed above, other passers like Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer are doing their parts to stay in the good graces of Fantasy owners. Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan didn't hold up their ends of the bargain in Week 7, but they typically post good totals too. Tony Romo probably has worked his way into the mix, too.

Carson Palmer's five TDs caught more than 60 percent of his owners by surprise. (US Presswire)  
Carson Palmer's five TDs caught more than 60 percent of his owners by surprise. (US Presswire)  
And we're not even including the likes of Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton or Matt Hasselbeck, all of whom were on bye this week. Nor are we including Brett Favre, who threw for over 300 yards at Pittsburgh but coughed up the ball twice in plays leading to Steelers defensive scores.

We're at a point in Fantasy Football where the supply of not just good quarterbacks -- but great quarterbacks -- is meeting demand. Ten- and 12-team leagues should have enough passers to go around. Previously, owners were making start/sit decisions based on who would be the quarterback who would do good enough. Now owners don't want to leave a three-touchdown passer on their bench while starting a guy who throws two.

Week 7 is all the proof you need that the NFL, now more than ever, is a pass-happy league. Fantasy owners should be elated for it. Seven quarterbacks threw at least three touchdowns. Eight threw for at least 250 yards. None of these quarterbacks are named Ben Roethlisberger or Matt Ryan, meaning that two of the league's premier young passers who typically are leaned on in Fantasy Football to put up big numbers missed out on delivering like their peers.

Teams are taking to the air for many reasons. Quarterbacks are more accurate and capable than ever. Receivers are as talented as ever as they blend size and speed. Cornerbacks and safeties around the league aren't catching up to their levels. Pass rushers are still talented, but so are many of the offensive linemen who block them. Thus, blitz schemes can be beaten. And coaches like many components that passing can give their offenses -- no-huddle versatility and matchup advantages included.

If you don't own a great Fantasy quarterback, you're behind the competition in your league. If you do own one, you're doing fine. Own two? It's time to strike a deal -- but only if someone really needs a quarterback. See, the problem with all these mighty passers is that demand for all but the very elite ones is low. It's almost to the point where having two great quarterbacks is a curse because you're not only yo-yoing between them from week to week but you can't get a fair deal for one of them.

What to do? Sit tight, obviously. It's always better to own two good passers and have one on your bench than for your opponent to start him against you (assuming no one's offering a good deal in trade). Also, football is a brutal game -- people get hurt. When a passer goes down, you can offer help via trade.

We'd say "ditto that" for quarterbacks who get benched, but let's be honest -- is anyone we've named getting benched anytime soon?!

At the very least, it will be fun to watch.

Let's take a look around at the rest of the Week 7 action.

Start of the Week result: Joseph Addai got off to a slow start and really didn't finish with the stats we expected him to have, but the 64 rush yards and rushing touchdown he pulled in was nothing to sneeze at. He would have had some more garbage time stats (rookie rusher Donald Brown got hurt in the first half) but made way for Chad Simpson in the fourth quarter, and Simpson found the end zone. He didn't have a pretty rushing average, and he only caught one pass, but Addai was still fairly productive.

Sit of the Week result: We'll find out Monday when DeSean Jackson does battle with the Redskins. Just a reminder: Jackson caught three total passes against Washington last season for 22 yards and hasn't connected much with Donovan McNabb under center like he did with Kevin Kolb when McNabb was out. And to make matters worse, the Redskins' pass defense has played well this season. If you have Jackson going for your team and need more than eight or nine Fantasy points on Monday, you'll be in trouble.

Insane stat line of the day: Hines Ward entered Week 7 leading the NFL in receiving yards. His totals against a Vikings defense missing its best cornerback? One catch for 3 yards. Part of the problem -- and this goes for all Steelers in Week 7 -- is that the Vikings owned the game clock and the Steelers offense ran 46 plays. A lot of owners were burned by Ward this week.

Out-of-nowhere stat line of the day: Alex Smith, welcome back to Fantasy relevance (not that you were really ever as Fantasy relevant as you are now). The 49ers pulled Shaun Hill in the first half against the Texans down 21-0 and gave Smith the keys to the offense. He gave them some solid play, hitting tight end Vernon Davis three times for touchdowns and nearly bringing the 49ers back to a victory. All told, Smith completed 15 of 22 passes for 206 yards with the three connections to Davis, 16 rush yards and a late interception. Head coach Mike Singletary wouldn't name a starter for Week 8 against the Colts, but you have to figure Smith will get a shot. He might even be worth a look as a flier in deeper leagues in case he keeps up this play, which goes against his career track record before he had shoulder surgery and missed all of 2008.

Guy we were way right about: Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has rediscovered Donald Driver, in turn giving the veteran a Fountain-of-Youth-like resurgence in Fantasy Football. Not only has Driver either scored or had 100 receiving yards in all but two games this season but teammate Greg Jennings is fading fast. Driver did a nice job eating up the Browns secondary on a 71-yard catch-and-run in Week 7, showing he still has plenty of giddyup.

Guy we were way wrong about: Marion Barber not only didn't put up a good rushing average, or find the end zone, or catch a decent amount of passes, but there's growing concern that Felix Jones and Tashard Choice will continue to take big bites out of his production going forward. A distressing stat: Fourteen carries and one catch for the power back in Week 7. That's not enough for a running back drafted early and held on to for a couple of weeks this season while he was hurt. He'll have a good matchup at home vs. the Seahawks in Week 8 to try and make up for this game.

Overachieving defense of the week: The Jets have been on the Fantasy rollercoaster, starting the year as a trendy No. 1 option, then falling flat after getting five sacks in six weeks while struggling to pin down the likes of the Bills. They redeemed themselves this week, albeit against a bad Raiders defense, smacking them for three sacks, two interceptions and a pair of forced fumbles, all the while hanging a zero on them. They even stood up to the Raiders very late with the game decided, shutting them out of the end zone inside of three minutes to play. Expected against the Raiders? Maybe, but for a beleaguered defense, even this was a surprise.

Underachieving defense of the week: The Saints might have beaten the Dolphins in Week 7, but their defense only did so much. New Orleans did not have an answer for the Wildcat and yielded a total of four rushing touchdowns and 128 rush yards to Ricky Williams (three scores!) and Ronnie Brown. They did come up big when it counted -- both of Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne's interceptions were returned for touchdowns -- but their play against the Dolphins run game is going to raise some eyebrows among offensive coordinators. The Saints might have their hands full in Week 8 with Michael Turner.

Names to add to your scout team:

Sam Aiken, wide receiver, New England (two catches, 66 yards, touchdown)
David Clowney, wide receiver, N.Y. Jets (four catches, 79 yards, touchdown)
Shonn Greene, running back, N.Y. Jets (19 carries, 144 yards, 2 TDs)
Brian Hartline, wide receiver, Miami (three catches, 94 yards)
Alex Smith, quarterback, San Francisco (15 of 22 passing, 206 yards, three TDs, interception)
Jason Snelling, running back, Atlanta (seven carries, 68 yards, 10-yard catch)

Injury alerts:

Bernard Berrian, hamstring, considered questionable for Week 8 at Green Bay
Donald Brown, shoulder, considered questionable for Week 8 vs. San Francisco
Jermichael Finley, knee, expected to miss Week 8 vs. Minnesota
Andre Johnson, chest, considered questionable for Week 8 at Buffalo
Leon Washington, broken leg, expected to miss rest of the season

The last word: Let's play a game. Here are the stats for a prominent NFL receiver:

Week 1: Two catches, 46 yards
Week 2: Three catches, 52 yards, TD
Week 3: No catches, no yards
Week 4: Three catches, 60 yards
Week 5: Four catches, 44 yards
Week 6: Three catches, 14 yards
Week 7: Three catches, 27 yards

Before you try and guess the receiver's identity, would you want him on your Fantasy team? Would you even consider starting someone on par with many of the league's low-end wideouts?

The winner got paid $6 million guaranteed before the season, and his team has won two straight games in spite of his poor play.

The player? Terrell Owens of the Buffalo Bills. If you've been worried about dropping him, go ahead. It's clear that he's a shell of his former self and unlikely to turn things around, at least on a consistent basis. Just try not to think about the out-of-nowhere receivers like Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Mike Sims-Walker, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Austin Collie, Mike Wallace, Johnny Knox, Pierre Garcon and others who weren't drafted that you could have picked up in place of T.O. at several points before this week.

What stood out to you this week? How did your Fantasy teams do? Drop us a line and tell us about it at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Week 7 in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll respond to as many as e-mails we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Richard Seymour
Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
2/12/2012
News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.
Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

 
 
 
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