Fantasy & Reality: Holding down the Forte

Remember the time you bought your second computer? You were jazzed to have this exciting new piece of technology in your hands, something faster and cooler than your original computer. You probably couldn't wait to start toying around with it because it was so fresh and such an improvement over what you had.

So what was it you did with that first computer then? Ultimately, you threw it away, but wasn't there some connection that you had? I mean, it was your first look at life without a typewriter, or your first portal to the Internet. Maybe you didn't throw it away -- can you even throw away a computer like you throw away a bag of trash?

Maybe it became a decorative doorstop, or impromptu footrest while you toyed with your new computer. Either way, you were probably hesitant to let it go because of the value it had, be it literal or emotional.

That's how Fantasy owners feel about Matt Forte after seven weeks.

Forte is that old computer. You remember getting him just a few months ago, right? You were excited because he was this bundle of potential after slashing through the league as a rookie. A new, better quarterback handing off to him meant less eight-in-the-box defensive coverage. He potentially could exceed his rookie year totals!

Now, he's meandering as the 30th-ranked running back in standard-scoring leagues. As we've said in this space before, it's not all entirely his fault as the Bears have become a passing offense, and the Bears offensive line couldn't cohesively open holes for The Flash if they wanted to. But Forte is certainly not doing a lot with the ball when he gets it -- he's averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 7.0 yards per catch, both averages slightly down from last season. He's also on pace to lose nearly 75 carries from last season's 316 rushes. If you can't get the ball enough, you can't produce, and Forte knows that after failing to register 20 carries in four of six games this year.

The same decisions you'll make with Forte -- and other running backs like him -- are the same you made with that old computer. Do you leave him on the curb and let someone else take him for nothing? Do you sell him for whatever you can get? Or do you keep him so he can hold doors open for you or keep the blood circulating in your feet?

I have Forte in one of my leagues. He's an eyesore. I start him each week for his redeeming values: He's more or less an every-down back in spite of his play, and on a decent week he'll touch the ball close to 20 times. I expect maybe eight to 10 Fantasy points from him, though I'm not expecting much. Is it what I wanted when I took him with my early first-round pick? Heck no. But it's what I can get, so that's why he's staying.

Another reason why I'm not cutting him: Who am I going to replace him with on my roster? You know that running backs are gold in Fantasy, and people want as many good ones as they can get. Trying to find a stud running back off waivers is like trying to find a Ferrari at Crazy Louie's Used Car Emporium. So unless your roster is stocked with quality players already, parting ways with Forte isn't really an option.

Trading him probably won't work out for you either. Unless you find a fellow owner desperate for any running back offering a decent player in return (we've seen a lot of trades involving Forte and the Carolina's Steve Smith), you won't get much for Forte.

Now, we expected a decent outing from Forte this week (better than 49 total yards) and think he's a decent starter in Week 8 against the Browns at home -- in spite of his poor play, and especially with the Bears desperate for a win. The Browns game represents Forte's last easy matchup until Week 13 against the Rams. This is to say that if he does well and someone comes knocking on your door looking to give you something good for Forte, do not blink.

Forte isn't the only running back in the league that's at this level. A couple of others are essentially in the "old computer zone" with several more prominent names getting dangerously close to joining them. Here's a look:

Now, there's one final word on Forte: What happens if he struggles against the Browns next week? Granted, he shouldn't -- the Browns are worse than awful against the run -- but, what if? Well, kids, then you might have to face facts that Forte isn't who we thought he was. With little to no confidence in him, you'd have to definitely bench him. And don't think that the thought is so foreign -- you're probably going to find yourself benching him if you own him after Week 8 because of his tough matchups. Similar results may happen with other running backs listed above.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.

Fantasy: DeAngelo Williams AND Jonathan Stewart will run all over the Bills. I don't get it, Carolina. You know you have a deteriorating quarterback, you know you're going up against one of the worst run defenses in the league and you're staring a three-game win streak in the whiskers. And you decide to throw it 26 times in the first half long before the game gets out of hand?! I'm stunned by the Panthers' play calling -- they should have had Jake Delhomme hand off twice as much as throw. I guess Stewart getting banged up in the first half didn't help things much, either.

Reality: I don't know what to make of Hakeem Nicks. The Giants rookie has scored in four straight games but three of the touchdowns were real fluky. Week 4: He took a bubble screen from Eli Manning and weaved his way past a bunch of Chiefs defenders for a score; Week 5: A legit red-zone target and catch from Manning; Week 6: A garbage-time touchdown from David Carr; Week 7: A deep pass intended for another Giants receiver caught off a tip for a touchdown. The talent is there, that's for sure, but how long can a kooky touchdown streak like this live on for? And, could he somehow see more playing time because he's been Johnny-on-the-spot?

Fantasy: The Vikings secondary will be picked apart by Ben Roethlisberger. Minnesota did a lot of things right despite losing at Pittsburgh. The Vikes held on to the ball and engineered some long drives, and they got really sharp play out of cornerbacks Benny Sapp and rookie Asher Allen. Roethlisberger threw a season-low 26 times, which is a big part of the reason why his stat line was bad in Week 7, but the Vikings' coverage of Hines Ward, and really the Steelers passing offense aside from two blown plays late in the first half, was commendable.

Reality: Miles Austin is the goods. Austin did it again: Two weeks after taking two mid-range Tony Romo passes, shedding a Chiefs tackler and running to the end zone, he escaped Falcons cornerback Brent Grimes' clutches and waltzed into the end zone for his second touchdown of the day. This was after he escaped single coverage by safety Thomas DeCoud for his first catch-and-run touchdown of the game. The more impressive feat was his six catches on eight targets, all of them on mid-range routes. I expect defenses to start assigning double coverage on him, beginning with the Seahawks next week, but he's just exploded over the last two games. Because of his outburst, he's the fifth-best receiver in standard Fantasy Football leagues right now. It's true!

Fantasy: Ted Ginn Jr. is a useful Fantasy receiver. Ginn is barely a usable NFL receiver after the litany of drops he had against the Saints. If Ginn could have held on to Chad Henne's passes, the Dolphins would have upset New Orleans. Ginn was targeted eight times, many times deep, and was awful. Bad news for Henne, bad news for his team, bad news for his Fantasy owners.

Reality: Larry Johnson is going to Tweet from the bench. Or elsewhere. Griping publicly about your coach, regardless of whatever social media format you choose to utilize, will almost always get you benched, cut or both. Maybe that's what Johnson is looking for -- to avoid being on the Chiefs. Like Forte, he's not getting any help from his offensive line. Maybe he can force his way off the roster and on to a team where he could play with a little more success. Of course, T.O. tried that a few years back with the Eagles and failed. This won't end well.

Strategy Session

Is 49ers quarterback Alex Smith really worth a look?

Let me begin with some disclosure: I've never liked Smith. Didn't like him coming out of Utah, never liked his fit with the 49ers back in 2005. When I did my mock draft that year I had Aaron Rodgers going No. 1 overall and Smith going to Cleveland at No. 3.

So let me say that when he came into the Niners' game at the start of the second half in place of a benched Shaun Hill, down 21-0, I expected him to be no better than mediocre and for the Texans to run away with this game.

Moments later, Smith was well on his way to proving that wrong. He hit Michael Crabtree on a 17-yard gain and then hit tight end Vernon Davis for a 29-yard touchdown, then came back two drives later and led them to another touchdown. Smith hit a bunch of short passes, showed he was willing to run with the ball and even converted a pair of third downs before hitting Davis on a seam route for his second touchdown from 14 yards out. A drive later, Smith again kept it short until hitting Josh Morgan on a decent 23-yard deep ball, setting up another deep ball to Davis for his third score of the game.

Through that point, Smith was on fire: 13 of 17 passing with 174 yards and three touchdowns. His final drive started off well enough with a long gain to Isaac Bruce, but his last pass, which was a bit of a floater, was picked off when he threw it into Texans coverage.

Mike Singletary won't name a starter for Week 8 at the Colts, but he'd be nuts to turn back to Hill after Smith rallied the Niners back. And considering the schedule the 49ers have left against shoddy pass defenses like the Titans, Jaguars and Cardinals, Smith just might be a bright spot. I doubt that you'll need a Fantasy quarterback thanks to the strong supply of great passers this season, but in the event that you do, Smith is worth the flier.

Parting shots

• Shonn Greene. Go get him.

• Reason No. 2 why Carson Palmer had a great game: The Bears' pass rush was non-existent. Give a good quarterback time to throw and he'll deliver a nice stat line. Give a great quarterback time to throw and he'll throw five touchdowns.

• Eight carries inside the 5-yard line for LaDainian Tomlinson against the Chiefs, and no touchdowns. True, he did score on a play that was called back due to a penalty, but his official line is just incredibly disappointing. I don't think it's all his fault -- he looked pretty good for the second week in a row -- but his Fantasy owners cannot be pleased with his performance, especially since he had 23 carries!

• Speaking of unpredictable Chargers running backs, I can't get a grip on Darren Sproles. One week Norv Turner uses him on one carry. The next, Sproles is used more often and lands a long catch-and-run touchdown. You'd think that because he's so fast and so talented that the Chargers would find ways to get him the ball each week, but because they don't he's literally an all-or-nothing Fantasy running back.

• Maybe Larry Johnson should Tweet a classified ad for offensive linemen. At least that would help the Chiefs.

• If Rashard Mendenhall had such a firm grip on the Steelers' running job, why did he have just 10 carries? Oh, and diving for yardage when you're nowhere near a pylon is never a good thing, Mr. Mendenhall.

• I think I could make a case for Steven Jackson as league MVP. Not saying he should be, just saying I think I could. If only he could score some touchdowns.

• The Dolphins pass defense is about to take a big turn south.

• The Giants pass defense has already made that turn.

• I'm not believing in the Jets defense just yet. I mean, it was the Raiders.

• If you had to start only Browns and Raiders on your team this year, you'd probably want to quit Fantasy Football for life.

• If you want a guy to target in trade, check out Beanie Wells. He had 10 more carries against the Giants than Tim Hightower (Wells got the grind-the-clock minutes) and has a nice schedule through Week 11. It gets hairy in Week 12, but if you're looking for someone to potentially give your team a lift, Wells is a solid option.

Dave is nowhere near as hip as he makes himself out to be, but he tries to know his football. Drop him a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. If you do write him, be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, if you'd rather use something cool like Twitter to follow Dave, find him @daverichard.