Waiver Wire: Time to start thinking Greene
By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow JameyFollow CBS Fantasy Football
Back in the preseason we had a series of 20 predictions for 2009. Some are on the verge of coming true, like Ronnie Brown finishing as a Top 5 Fantasy running back and Dallas Clark finishing as the No. 1 tight end.
Others, like LenDale White outplaying Chris Johnson and Jonathan Stewart being better than DeAngelo Williams, are banned from being mentioned. Those were horribly wrong.
And now, two other predictions have a chance to become reality. We said Shonn Greene would finish as the most productive Jets running back, and Beanie Wells would be the top rookie running back of the 2009 class.
Granted, a lot will have to happen for Greene to overtake Thomas Jones, and Wells is already well behind Knowshon Moreno, but at least they have a chance to compete based on Week 7. Both rookies had nice outings.
Start with Greene, who will take over for the injured Leon Washington (leg) as the No. 2 running back behind Jones. Greene, who is only owned in 15 percent of leagues on CBSSports.com, had 19 carries for 144 yards and two touchdowns at Oakland. He was the No. 2 running back in standard-scoring leagues this week with 26 Fantasy points behind only Ricky Williams, who had 27.
Jones continues to run well for the Jets, and he had 26 carries for 121 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders. He has 101 Fantasy points on the season and is the No. 4 running back in standard leagues compared to Greene, who is No. 49 with 28 Fantasy points.
Washington was averaging 12 carries a game prior to getting hurt, and his ability as a receiver out of the backfield will be missed by the Jets. Greene isn't that type of player, but he could be a force with his running style.
He is built like a tank at 5-foot-11, 227 pounds, and he played like a bulldozer at Iowa when he had 1,850 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns last year. If he gets Washington's 12 carries or a few more he could be a productive Fantasy option.
The Jets have done well running the ball the past two weeks against the Bills and Raiders and should continue to have a successful ground attack. They only have one game against a top 10 rush defense the rest of this year, which is in Week 8 against Miami, with four games remaining against four of the worst run defenses (Carolina in Week 12, Buffalo in Week 13, Tampa Bay in Week 14 and Atlanta in Week 15). Those are games where Greene can run well, which is why you should add him now. And with a little luck, he could close the gap on Jones.
The same goes for Wells, who has 21 Fantasy points on the season and trails Moreno, who has 49 points. Other rookie running backs ahead of Wells are Donald Brown (43 points), LeSean McCoy (31), Glen Coffee (29) and Greene.
But Wells is on the verge of heating up based on his performance against the Giants. He had 14 carries for 67 yards and a touchdown and three catches for 10 yards.
Tim Hightower remains a vital part of the backfield in Arizona, but he only topped 67 yards rushing once this season in Week 2 at Jacksonville with 72 yards. Hightower is better suited as a receiver, and the Cardinals drafted Wells to provide more balance on offense.
Wells has struggled with fumbles, and the Cardinals are usually quick to abandon the run with all the talent in the passing game. But Wells could be on the verge of a breakout, especially with upcoming games against Carolina, Seattle and St. Louis in three of the next four weeks.
Wells is only owned in 54 percent of leagues, so he could be available. And now is the time to add him and consider starting him in Week 8 against the Panthers.
Some other running backs who could be available to stash on your roster or consider for use during the bye weeks include Mike Bell (69 percent ownership), Correll Buckhalter (66 percent), Justin Fargas (38 percent) or Jamaal Charles (23 percent). Bell, Buckhalter and Fargas are getting plenty of touches for their respective teams, and Charles could be on the verge of replacing the ineffective Larry Johnson in Kansas City.
In case you haven't noticed ... It's time to add Hakeem Nicks in every format. The Giants have three wide receivers in the top 20 for Fantasy points with Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Nicks, and each have four touchdowns for the season. Nicks, who is owned in 82 percent of leagues, has scored in four straight games after getting four catches for 80 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals in Week 7. Now, keep in mind, the last touchdown came on a fluke play off a deflection for a 62-yard score, and two of his touchdowns came from David Carr in garbage time in Week 5 against Oakland and Week 6 at New Orleans. But you can't argue with the production, and he's worth stashing on your bench in all leagues.
Each Tuesday we will highlight players who might be available in your league and whether you should consider picking them up off waivers based on their recent performances. The players chosen are based on the percentage of ownership in CBSSports.com leagues.
Add 'Em
Sam Aiken, WR, New England
Owned: 3 percent of leagues
Week 7: Caught two passes for 66 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay in London.
Analysis: The Patriots like to use their No. 3 wide receiver, and Aiken and rookie Brandon Tate will likely share the role with Julian Edelman (foreman) injured and Joey Galloway gone. There usually aren't many targets available behind Randy Moss and Wes Welker, but Fantasy owners have gotten some production from Jabar Gaffney in recent years. Aiken could fill that role and is worth adding. In deeper leagues, the same goes for Tate (1 percent ownership). Keep in mind that Tom Brady is spreading the ball around to Benjamin Watson, Chris Baker and Kevin Faulk as well, but Aiken showed against the Bucs that he could be a playmaker when given a chance.
Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis
Owned: 51 percent of leagues
Week 7: Caught two passes for 58 yards against Indianapolis.
Analysis: We liked Avery in Week 6 at Jacksonville, and he had one catch for 17 yards and a touchdown before getting hurt in the first half and leaving the game. He likely would have had a stellar outing before the hip injury. We didn't like Avery in Week 7 against the Colts because he was playing hurt and had a tough matchup. But like we told you in the Jaguars game, you can use Avery when the matchup is right. And in Week 8 he faces the Lions. Add Avery again this week and consider him a good No. 3 Fantasy wide receiver or flex option since Detroit struggles in pass defense. The Lions have allowed 17 passing touchdowns in six games.
Fred Davis, TE, Washington
Owned: 1 percent of leagues
Week 7: Caught eight passes for 78 yards and a touchdown against Philadelphia.
Analysis: Chris Cooley broke his ankle Monday night against the Eagles, which opens the door for Davis to be the starting tight end for the Redskins. In his second season, Davis has the chance to be a solid Fantasy option the rest of the year. Cooley averaged five catches for 52 yards prior to the Eagles game with two touchdowns, and the Redskins will likely be throwing often while playing from behind. If you own Cooley and need a replacement, Davis is your man. And if you're looking for a second tight end or a sleeper on a weekly basis, then it pays to add Davis in all formats. While Jason Campbell isn't a very good quarterback, he should connect with Davis quite a bit.
Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh
Owned: 38 percent of leagues
Week 7: Caught three passes for 72 yards and a touchdown and had two carries for 19 yards against Minnesota.
Analysis: On our Fantasy Football Today show for Week 7, my colleague Brian Jones said "Mike Wallace is the key to the Steelers offense." He might be on to something since Wallace is a top 25 Fantasy wide receiver in a standard-scoring league with 50 points -- three points behind Santonio Holmes. He is also the No. 2 rookie wide receiver in Fantasy points behind Hakeem Nicks (53), and he's been better than Austin Collie and Johnny Knox. The Steelers are throwing the ball with enough success to count on Wallace -- who has 21 catches for 368 yards and two touchdowns and has been targeted 33 times -- as a reserve for your Fantasy roster.
Avoid 'Em
David Clowney, WR, New York Jets
Owned: 4 percent of leagues
Week 7: Caught four passes for 79 yards and a touchdown at Oakland.
Analysis: Clowney has done a good job of trying to help the Jets with Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) injured the past three weeks. In Week 5 at Miami, Clowney had four catches for 72 yards before going without a catch against Buffalo in Week 6. But that's the problem: He's been inconsistent, and Cotchery should be back soon. The Jets need someone to step up in the passing game to help Braylon Edwards, but Cotchery will likely fill that role. And with the way Mark Sanchez has been playing, you don't want to run out and get the secondary targets for the Jets when there are better options available.
Patrick Crayton, WR, Dallas
Owned: 49 percent of leagues
Week 7: Caught two passes for 9 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta.
Analysis: Crayton might be better than Roy E. Williams, but Williams and Miles Austin will remain in the starting lineup and have more upside, especially Austin. Crayton is clearly a forgotten option in the passing game despite his touchdown against the Falcons. The Cowboys need Crayton to play well on special teams as a return man, and his Fantasy value is minimal. Prior to scoring against the Falcons, Crayton had 11 catches for 108 yards in four games. And the touchdown against Atlanta came on a broken play where Tony Romo just found Crayton in the back of the end zone.
Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco
Owned: 1 percent of leagues
Week 7: Completed 15 of 22 passes for 206 yards, three touchdowns and one interception and had two carries for 16 yards at Houston.
Analysis: Smith is the new starting quarterback for the 49ers after Shaun Hill struggled against the Texans, but don't expect Smith to all of the sudden become a Fantasy star and live up to his draft status as the No. 1 overall pick in 2005. Smith has the same weapons that Hill had to work with in a rushing offense, and the 49ers were throwing the ball out of desperation in a comeback attempt against the Texans. That's not the way Mike Singletary wants to play. Smith might have some moments with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis (maybe Week 9 vs. Tennessee for example) but not enough to make him a viable Fantasy option on a weekly basis, especially with the bye weeks almost done.
Scout 'Em
Brian Hartline, WR, Miami
Owned: 1 percent of leagues
Week 7: Caught three passes for 94 yards vs. New Orleans.
Analysis: The Dolphins could be on the verge of benching Ted Ginn, Jr., which would allow Hartline to play a more prominent role in the offense. As it is, Hartline has improved since Chad Henne took over as the starting quarterback for the injured Chad Pennington (shoulder). Hartline scored his first touchdown in Henne's first start in Week 5 against Buffalo. As the season goes on, especially if the Dolphins start to struggle running the ball, Hartline could become more of a factor for Fantasy owners, but just add him to your scout team in Week 8 in the majority of leagues.
Donald Lee, TE, Green Bay
Owned: 5 percent of leagues
Week 7: Caught three passes for 39 yards at Cleveland.
Analysis: Jermichael Finley injured his knee against the Browns, and he could be out for Week 8 against Minnesota or longer. That would put Lee back in his role as the receiving tight end, which is important against the Vikings, who have struggled with tight ends all season. In the first game against the Vikings, Finley had six catches for 128 yards and a touchdown in Week 4. If you need a replacement for this week then add Lee. Otherwise see how Lee does against the Vikings and how long Finley is out as you monitor his status for the next couple of weeks.
Chad Simpson, RB, Indianapolis
Owned: 0 percent of leagues
Week 7: Had three carries for 35 yards and a touchdown at St. Louis.
Analysis: Donald Brown left the game against the Rams with a shoulder injury, so Simpson got to play in garbage time behind starter Joseph Addai. Brown expects to be OK, but if he's out for any reason in Week 8 against San Francisco or longer then Simpson would be elevated to the No. 2 role in Indianapolis. That's an important position because the Colts like to use two running backs, and Addai showed in 2008 he could be a little fragile. Simpson's value is tied to what happens with Brown heading into the 49ers game.
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