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Dave Richard

History Lessons: Fresh data for Fantasy owners

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


It's only Week 8, but we're going to see four in-season rematches between division rivals. That means we not only have past data to look at, but data from previous games within the last two months. Familiarity between opponents is always a helpful indicator of what to expect in a game.

Dolphins-Jets

Player Week 5 results
Chad Henne 20/26, 241 yards, 2 TDs
Ronnie Brown 74 rush yards, 14 rec. yards, 2 TDs
Ricky Williams 68 rush yards, 70 rec. yards
Ted Ginn, Jr. 57 rec. yards, TD
Anthony Fasano 38 rec. yards, TD
Davone Bess 18 rec. yards
Mark Sanchez 12/24, 172 yards, TD
Thomas Jones 42 rush yards, 2 TDs
Braylon Edwards 64 rec. yards, TD
Jerricho Cotchery 4 rec. yards
David Clowney 72 rec. yards
Dustin Keller No catches, no yards

We were concerned about Brown's initial meeting with the Jets not only because he struggled against them in 2007 but also because Jets head coach Rex Ryan had mastered the Wildcat in two games against the Dolphins in 2008 while with the Ravens. Brown blew those concerns away, and with the Jets' run defense yet to be tested without defensive tackle Kris Jenkins playing, Brown should continue to do well. And if he's doing well, so should Ricky Williams -- he had 138 total yards against the Jets earlier this year and has 230 total yards over his last three against them.

An even better lock to do well in this matchup is Thomas Jones, who has four touchdowns in his last five games against the Dolphins. Jones has also scored in four straight games with over 120 rush yards in each of his last two. He'll share the ball some with rookie Shonn Greene, but if the Jets stick to running the football as much as they have over their last few games then both should have a relative measure of success -- maybe not 100 rush yards for Jones or Greene because the Dolphins' run defense is good, but a healthy total.

You'll also remember that their first meeting was Braylon Edwards' debut with the Jets, where he looked like a world-beater who had been stuck in moth balls over the last year-plus (that's not far from the truth). Since that game, Edwards has been awful. But he's received double coverage, which could end this week with the return of Jerricho Cotchery from injury. Also, the Dolphins lost their best cornerback, Will Allen, to a torn ACL in Week 7. They'll have rookies Sean Smith and Vontae Davis lining up this week, a situation where even Mark Sanchez could find success throwing the ball.

Jaguars-Titans

Player Week 4 results
David Garrard 27/37, 323 yards, 3 TDs
Maurice Jones-Drew 14 rush yards, rush TD, 26 rec. yards
Mike Sims-Walker 91 rec. yards, 2 TDs
Marcedes Lewis 76 rec. yards, TD
Torry Holt 42 rec. yards
Kerry Collins 29/48, 284 yards, TD, two INTs
Chris Johnson 83 rush yards, 11 rec. yards, fumble
Nate Washington 66 rec. yards, TD
Kenny Britt 105 rec. yards
Justin Gage 15 rec. yards

Jacksonville did a really good job exposing the Titans' secondary in Week 4 as Garrard had his highest yardage output for the season at that point and Mike Sims-Walker posted his best career game with two touchdowns and 91 receiving yards. The Titans' secondary isn't expected to be any better after their bye week, which means more success for these Jaguars.

Meanwhile, we've got a pretty good idea of what to expect from Maurice Jones-Drew in this matchup. Last year the Titans were good at holding him back from gaining big yardage but not from holding him out of the end zone. And again in Week 4 Jones-Drew found the end zone but didn't have the massive yardage we've come to expect. Granted, he didn't exactly have many touches in Week 4 (six carries, three catches), so we should probably expect more yardage this time. Maybe just not a lot more.

Chris Johnson -- who torched Jacksonville in 2008 -- had 94 total yards earlier this season against the Jaguars. No one should sit him in Fantasy play this week because of his potential, nor because of his history: In two games last year Johnson had a touchdown and 215 total yards. He should be a big part of what the Titans do in this game.

Of course, we might see Tennessee throw plenty, which they did in the first matchup. Kerry Collins attempted 48 passes and had his best yardage game of the season. With a week of rest and the prospect of taking on Jacksonville without their best defensive back, Rashean Mathis, he could do even better. That could also spell good news for Kenny Britt and Nate Washington, who each caught seven passes from Collins in Week 4.

Raiders-Chargers

Player Week 1 results
Philip Rivers 24/36, 252 yards, TD, INT
LaDainian Tomlinson 55 rush yards, rush TD, 1 rec. yard
Darren Sproles 23 rush yards, rush TD, 43 rec. yards
Vincent Jackson 56 rec. yards, TD
Antonio Gates 83 rec. yards
JaMarcus Russell 12/30, 208 yards, TD, 2 INTs
Michael Bush 55 rush yards, rush TD, 4 rec. yards
Louis Murphy 87 rec. yards, TD
Zach Miller 96 rec. yards

LaDainian Tomlinson's Fantasy owners should feel very comfortable starting him this week. He scored against the Raiders in the season opener -- and hasn't scored since. And, as we've said for years and years, Tomlinson has dominated the Raiders like no other opponent over his career (20 career touchdowns, averaging 115 or so yards per game against them). He seems healthy and faces the Raiders at home, who own the third-worst run defense in the NFL. Need we say more?

One interesting trend that continued in the series was the lack of stats from San Diego's passing game. Philip Rivers threw one touchdown -- caught by Vincent Jackson -- and Antonio Gates had modest totals. In fact, Gates hasn't topped the 70-yard mark against Oakland since 2006 and scored against them once in his last five. Jackson has improved, scoring in his last two against the Raiders. And let's face it -- you're not benching any of these guys unless you're just absolutely loaded at the position.

Vikings-Packers

Player Week 4 results
Aaron Rodgers 26/37, 384 yards, 2 TDs, INT, 16 rush yards, fumble
Ryan Grant 51 rush yards, 50 rec. yards
Donald Driver 55 rec. yards
Greg Jennings 31 rec. yards
Jermichael Finley 128 rec. yards, TD
Brett Favre 24/31, 271 yards, 3 TDs
Adrian Peterson 55 rush yards, rush TD, fumble
Bernard Berrian 75 rec. yards, TD
Sidney Rice 70 rec. yards, TD
Visanthe Shiancoe 18 rec. yards, TD
Percy Harvin 39 rec. yards

One of the most intriguing anomalies that spawns from this rivalry is how Ryan Grant continues to post decent stat lines against the Vikings' run defense. Grant has had at least 90 total yards and/or a touchdown in every game in his career against the Vikings. Minnesota's run defense perked up last week against the Steelers and is one of the better units in the league, but the Packers got good play from their re-tooled O-line last week and might give Grant the room he needs to get his yardage.

Another anomaly was the play of Aaron Rodgers. In 2008 he couldn't do anything against the Vikings but he had a whopping 384 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. Now he'll get the Vikings without cornerback Antoine Winfield; Minnesota's pass defense was good last week without him but wasn't tested much. The Packers should do plenty of passing while defending their home turf.

And of course there's Brett Favre, who threw well in his first game against his old team. But his best games have been when the Vikings don't run the ball effectively -- Adrian Peterson's three best Fantasy outings have come in Favre's three worst (Weeks 1, 5 and 7). Chances are that their Week 8 game will mirror their Week 4 game, which means you'll see Peterson get his stats, but Favre will do plenty of throwing.

Big game in the NFC South

Monday night the Falcons and Saints will square off in what might essentially be the last chance for Atlanta to have a shot to win the NFC South. The Falcons have two losses to the Saints' zero, but if the Falcons somehow win out, they'll take the division by virtue of their two wins over the Saints (both teams would then finish 14-2).

OK, talk about winning out after six games is nuts. But last year's games were both high-scoring affairs that saw seven touchdown passes, four rushing touchdowns, two 300-yard passing games and plenty of other really productive stat lines. In essence, the game should be a windfall for Fantasy owners of Saints and Falcons players.

The Saints are a changed team defensively, but their offense is still rocking and rolling. They'll be familiar with the Falcons' defensive scheme, which is the same from last year. That bodes well for Drew Brees, who not only has at least two passing touchdowns in each of his last five against the Falcons but had 652 passing yards against them in two games last year. That includes a 422-yard whopper where he completed at least two passes to eight different receivers in a 14-point loss (58 pass attempts). Of his receivers, Colston was his most successful in the series last year, totaling 166 yards on 10 catches. Colston has only scored in one of five career games against the Falcons -- a two-touchdown effort in late 2007. Devery Henderson hasn't scored in his last three against the Saints, nor has he topped 100 yards in a game against them in his last four. Three of his last four against Atlanta has seen him end up with less than 40 receiving yards. Henderson's also been ice cold since Week 1 of the season, failing to score or total over 100 yards.

One spot that might be a point of emphasis for the Saints is at tight end: In two games last season, Brees completed 12 passes for 145 yards to tight ends Jeremy Shockey and Billy Miller. Shockey is pretty much the only regular tight end target for New Orleans, and the matchup against the Falcons' safeties will still be appealing to Brees.

The Falcons had their share of success against New Orleans in 2008 but face a much different team now. Last year's New Orleans defense was average at best and allowed plays of 20-plus yards nine times to the Falcons in two meetings. Michael Turner accounted for some of those plays and compiled 157 rush yards and two touchdowns against New Orleans last year. Roddy White was also successful to the tune of a score and 232 receiving yards. Matt Ryan threw three touchdowns and ran for another in the two games with a 315-yard effort in New Orleans and a 248-yard effort at home.

The Saints haven't allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end all season. Of course, they really haven't faced any good ones, either -- Brent Celek is probably the most athletic tight end they've faced and he had over 100 yards on eight catches. Tony Gonzalez should pose quite a challenge to the Saints, especially when you consider that two of his three best games this season have come indoors against 4-3 scheme defenses (and all three touchdowns have come in domes, too).

Bottom line: It's pretty much a lock to start any prominent Saints and Falcons in Week 8.

History says these players will enjoy Week 8 ...
Anquan Boldin Two TDs in regular-season meeting with Panthers
John Carlson Six catches, 105 yards against the Cowboys in '08
Larry Fitzgerald 281 total yards, TD in two games vs. Carolina last year
Tim Hightower 100 total yards, 2 TDs in two '08 games vs. Panthers
DeSean Jackson 85 total yards, rush TD at home vs. Giants last season
Brandon Jacobs 126 rush yards, two TDs at Philadelphia last season
Donovan McNabb Four TDs, 385 pass yards, 51 rush yards, INT in two '08 games vs. NYG
Neil Rackers 5 of 6 field goals, five XPs in two games vs. Panthers last year
Tony Romo 331 pass yards, three TDs, one INT, 14 rush yards vs. SEA in '08
Steve Smith 160 yards, three TDs in two '08 games vs. Cardinals
Kurt Warner Four TDs, 601 yards in two games vs. Panthers in 2008
Brian Westbrook Six total TDs, 677 total yards in last five against the Giants
DeAngelo Williams 192 total yards, TD in two games vs. Panthers last season
Jason Witten Nine catches, 115 yards, TD vs. Seattle last year
History tells a sad story for these players ...
Jake Delhomme Five INTs, two fumbles, three TDs, 453 yards in two '08 games vs. ARI
Matt Hasselbeck 287 pass yards, no TDs, INT at Dallas last year
Julius Jones 11 car., 37 rush yards, fumble at Dallas in 2008
Dustin Keller No catches at Miami in Week 5 (two in two games in '08)
Eli Manning Five TDs, four INTs, one 220-plus yard game in last five vs. PHI
Steve Smith Four catches, 47 yards in second '08 meeting against Eagles
Jonathan Stewart 22 rush yards, TD in two games vs. Cardinals last year

How do you think history will treat you? E-mail your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: History Lessons ing the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll get to as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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