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Week 8 Faceoffs: Go back to the Wells?

Dave Richard
Senior Fantasy Writer
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Editor's note: Each week Senior Fantasy Writers Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg will debate the value of a handful of key Fantasy players heading into a certain week. They not only state their case below, but they also provide owners with some alternatives.

Start Beanie Wells vs. Carolina?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard Let's not confuse this with my long-term prognosis for Wells, which is that he'll be a nice addition to Fantasy rosters. But this week, he'll face a desperate Panthers defense that's been improving against the run since their bye. And as you should know by now, the Cardinals are a team that likes to throw, not run. Only once this season have they had a running back get 15 carries in a game, and that includes blowouts. That running back happened to be Tim Hightower, who is still starting and sharing reps with Wells. Carolina has allowed 121 rush yards to running backs over the last two games, a sign that its porous run defense is on the mend after picking up a couple of defensive tackles. I'm excited over Wells' future as much as anyone, but let's not overreact and put him in lineups as anything more than a No. 3 or flex option.
I'd rather start: Ryan Grant (vs. MIN), Frank Gore (at IND) and Justin Fargas (at SD)
Jamey Eisenberg Wells picked the perfect time to have his first good outing in the NFL because now he gets a tremendous matchup at home against Carolina. Wells, who had 67 rushing yards and a touchdown at the Giants in Week 7, faces a Panthers team that has allowed a touchdown to a running back in every game this season. Brian Westbrook, Michael Turner, Tashard Choice, Clinton Portis, Cadillac Williams and Marshawn Lynch have all scored against Carolina, and Wells should follow suit. The Panthers are also giving up 133 rushing yards per game, and while they have improved the past three weeks against Washington, Tampa Bay and Buffalo, each starting running back has hit double digits in Fantasy points. Wells will lose touches to Tim Hightower, who should also play well this week, but the rookie from Ohio State is on the verge of becoming a solid Fantasy option, beginning with this week.
I'd start him over: Frank Gore (at IND), Willis McGahee (vs. DEN) and Pierre Thomas (vs. ATL)
Start Tony Gonzalez at New Orleans?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard I don't care if you play in a six-team league, sitting Gonzalez in a game that's crucial to the Falcons' success this season is just not a risk owners should take. Yes, the Saints have done well against tight ends (no TDs by a tight end all season), but they've only faced one credible Fantasy tight end -- Brent Celek -- and he had 104 yards against them. Gonzalez's best games have come indoors this season and he's a solid second on the roster in targets from Matt Ryan (more than seven per game). But more importantly than that: Who exactly are you going to start in place of Gonzalez if you bench him?!
I'd start him over: Jeremy Shockey (vs. ATL), Vernon Davis (at IND) and Visanthe Shiancoe (at GB)
Jamey Eisenberg Gonzalez has struggled recently after a hot start. He only has one touchdown in his past four games and no games over 75 yards receiving this year. On the road, he only has 11 catches for 108 yards and no touchdowns in three games, and the Saints have done well against opposing tight ends this year. New Orleans is No. 2 against opposing tight ends with only 21 catches for 219 yards and no touchdowns allowed. Only one tight end, Brent Celek (eight catches for 104 yards in Week 2), has played well against the Saints, and New Orleans should be able to contain Gonzalez with Darren Sharper giving him some extra attention. In a 10-team Fantasy league, I would bench Gonzalez.
I'd rather start: Brent Celek (vs. NYG), Vernon Davis (at IND) and Zach Miller (at SD)
Start Kyle Orton at Baltimore?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard On a week where Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer are on bye, Kyle Orton makes sense as a good Fantasy option. He's grown comfortable with his aggressive offense which calls for him to throw a lot. And he'll throw a lot against a Ravens secondary that has been battered this season (over 250 passing yards allowed in four of six '09 games). Better yet, Orton has been on a hot streak; he's thrown two scores in each of his last three games and over 225 yards in all but one game on the season. He'll even get good pass protection against the Ravens' blitz (he's been sacked just six times all year). Orton might not be a popular choice in Fantasy, but that doesn't mean he's not a good one.
I'd start him over: Eli Manning (at PHI), Joe Flacco (vs. DEN) and Matt Hasselbeck (at DAL)
Jamey Eisenberg Orton has been fantastic this season and comes into this game with six touchdowns and one interception in his past three games. Baltimore has also been bad in pass defense, ranking No. 23 with nine touchdowns allowed, seven interceptions and only 14 sacks. But I'll take my chances with the Ravens defense coming off a bye and playing at home. And the quarterbacks who have done well against Baltimore -- Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Brett Favre -- are all better than Orton. Orton remains a great No. 2 Fantasy quarterback, but there are better starting options available. Keep Orton reserved this week.
I'd rather start: David Garrard (at TEN), Joe Flacco (vs. DEN) and Brett Favre (at GB)
Start Steve Smith at Philadelphia?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard Less than a month ago, Smith was considered the Fantasy sleeper of the year. But since breaking out through Week 4, he's been practically invisible, totaling 11 catches for 183 yards with no touchdowns. The Giants have seen other players step up, including both of their running backs and fellow receivers Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks. Teams have found a way to take Smith out of the game and the Eagles' pass defense definitely has the talent to do that and get to Eli Manning. It's hard to trust this guy when Smith hasn't been the most prolific receiver on his own team over the last few weeks.
I'd rather start: Steve Smith (at ARI), Devin Hester (vs. CLE) and Greg Jennings (vs. MIN)
Jamey Eisenberg I can't wait to read who Dave is going to start over Smith, who has been the No. 4 Fantasy wide receiver in standard-scoring leagues this year. With six teams on a bye, there are not 24 wide receivers better than him. Smith might have three games in a row without a touchdown, but he still has 11 catches for 183 yards over that span, with one of those games a blowout victory against Oakland in Week 5 when he left the game early. Smith has also been targeted 20 times in the past three games, and despite the recent play of Hakeem Nicks along with the development of Mario Manningham, he remains the No. 1 option in the passing game.
I'm starting him over: Devery Henderson (vs. ATL), Braylon Edwards (vs. MIA) and Lee Evans (vs. HOU)
Start Austin Collie vs. San Francisco?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard If Reggie Wayne is out with a groin injury, then Collie would be expected to see more targets and catches. But if Wayne continues to pair with Dallas Clark as Peyton Manning's two top targets, then Collie will continue to see a limited number of passes come his way. It goes without saying that the Colts will throw all day against the 49ers in Week 8, but Collie didn't play great or see as much work as expected last week against a hapless Rams secondary. This is merely a situation where expectations have to be kept in check. He's no better than a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, and if Anthony Gonzalez comes back and takes a few limited reps this week, it will only limit Collie's stats further.
I'd rather start: Donnie Avery (at DET), Braylon Edwards (vs. MIA) and Devery Henderson (vs. ATL)
Jamey Eisenberg All Collie has done in the past three games is catch 18 passes for 198 yards and four touchdowns. He plays with arguably the best quarterback in the NFL in Peyton Manning and is a vital part of the passing game. And this week he faces a defense that hasn't stopped anyone the past two games in the 49ers, who were beat up by Atlanta and Houston. Collie should continue to play well even once Anthony Gonzalez (knee) returns because he is the slot receiver. And since Manning trusts Collie, I will trust him as well as a starting Fantasy option this week.
I'd start him over: Eddie Royal (at BAL), Hakeem Nicks (at PHI) and Torry Holt (at TEN)

Do you agree with Dave or Jamey? Send your thoughts or questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Faceoff in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

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Player News
DeMarco Murray
Garrett: Murray tweaked hamstring
DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL
5/21/2013
News: Cowboys coach Jason Garrett told the media Tuesday running back DeMarco Murray tweaked a hamstring over the last week. The team opted to be conservative with him and had him sit out practice on Tuesday. Murray was spotted on the sidelines during the Cowboys' first day of OTA workouts.
Analysis: Murray's injury history goes a long way back -- and the Cowboys know it. Keeping him healthy will be a tough chore for the next several months but taking careful, proactive steps like this will keep him from being absent. His health will remain key as he's missed nine games over his first two seasons in the league and has had the injury bug biting him going back to his high school days. But Murray had 10-plus Fantasy points in half of his 10 games last season and has the confidence of the coaching staff. He's a moderately risky No. 2 Fantasy running back expected to get taken between 25th and 40th overall on Draft Day.

Danny Amendola
Amendola gets to work with Brady
Danny Amendola, WR, NE
5/21/2013
News: The media got to check out the Patriots' second day of OTA workouts in New England. The Boston Globe reports new Pats wideout Danny Amendola spent a lot of time with Tom Brady, working primarily in the slot. According to the Patriots' official website Amendola looked sharp, ran his routes well and got in and out of his breaks quickly. He appeared comfortable which shouldn't be surprising given his past work in Josh McDaniels' offense. "It's familiar," Amendola said. "When Josh was in St. Louis, I got to know it pretty good. It's a little more intricate out here. It's something to grasp. I'm learning every day. It's the verbiage. That's the most important thing, the vocabulary of the offense. I'm learning, day in and day out, studying at night."
Analysis: Amendola is vitally important to the Patriots' offense after the team let Wes Welker go in free agency last year. It's tough to expect Amendola to completely replace Welker in their scheme but he has the potential to be a major factor if he can stay healthy. That's a big if -- he's missed 20 games over the last two seasons. So long as you accept Amendola as an injury-risk who doesn't have the experience of being a volume receiver like Welker, you'll be fine. Amendola is safest as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver with a pick in Round 7 or 8.

Maurice Jones-Drew
MJD's training moves to Miami
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC
5/21/2013
News: Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley confirmed that running back Maurice Jones-Drew will step up the intensity in his workouts in Miami with noted trainer Pete Bommarito. MJD is working his way back from a Lisfranc injury. Bradley is fine with the move because he and Jones-Drew are on the same page with where the running back is at, according to the Florida Times-Union. Bradley especially wanted Jones-Drew in camp while the team installed the offense. "It’s going to take some time and it should come back," Bradley said of Jones-Drew's injured foot. "We're just taking the next step in the rehab process."
Analysis: Expectations remain MJD will be ready for the start of training camp in July and potentially be on the field for a June minicamp. Fantasy owners need to see him before drafting to have some level of confidence in his game. The injury he suffered is a tough one to come back from. On the plus side, Jones-Drew had at least 1,600 total yards in each of his previous three seasons before 2012 when he held out of training camp and ultimately got hurt after six games. Some will be afraid to draft the 28-year-old but most owners should go ahead and consider Jones-Drew a Top 15 running back for now, making him worth a pick between 20th and 30th overall in drafts assuming he is a full participant in Jags camp. That seems to be on pace to happen.

Rob Gronkowski
Uninfected Gronk has surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
5/21/2013
News: Rob Gronkowski had successful surgery on his left forearm Monday and doctors found no infection inside according to multiple reports. He had a new plate installed in his arm to keep things in place inside his forearm and should be done having surgery there. A consultation on his back is expected within the next three to four weeks with surgery to potentially follow.
Analysis: Great news! Unless there's a setback with the arm or a serious issue with his back Gronkowski should be ready for the start of training camp. That makes him a safer pick in Fantasy Football since he'll have the time to get ready for the season and potentially play 16 games. We're not out of the woods yet but be ready to consider Gronk with a Top 20 pick in drafts this summer.

Tony Romo
Romo out until minicamp
Tony Romo, QB, DAL
5/21/2013
News: The Dallas Morning News reports Tony Romo had a cyst removed from his back and will be out until at least Cowboys minicamp in June. He should be fine for training camp. "If this was the regular season and I had to play next week, I could," Romo said. "This is just about being smart. That’s why I did it now. This will have no effect on training camp. No way will it have an impact. And I still think there’s a good chance I’m on the field for minicamp."
Analysis: Romo isn't a quarterback anyone is targeting on Draft Day, he's more like a passer you'll settle for starting in Round 6. There's nothing wrong with that: Romo was one of 10 quarterbacks to average over 20 Fantasy points per game (in standard formats) and has consistently put up big numbers, albeit not amazing numbers. Fantasy owners can win with Romo as their starter.

Lamar Miller
Miller works with first team
Lamar Miller, RB, MIA
5/21/2013
News: The Miami Herald reports that Dolphins running back Lamar Miller opened with the first team during Tuesday's OTA workout. The report says Miller "showed his usual good burst." Daniel Thomas and Marcus Thigpen got work behind Miller.
Analysis: Miller is expected to start for the Dolphins this year, and he should enter training camp as a potential No. 2 Fantasy running back worth a pick as early as Round 4 in the majority of leagues. He recently said his goals for the season were 1,500 yards and 5.0 yards per carry. We hope he can live up to his words because he could be a special Fantasy option if that happens.

Brandon Bolden
Bolden misses OTA workouts
Brandon Bolden, RB, NE
5/21/2013
News: The Boston Globe reports running back Brandon Bolden was absent from OTA practice Tuesday after spraining his ankle while training. He's expected to return in late May/early June.
Analysis: Bolden is expected to be buried on the depth chart behind starter Stevan Ridley, among others. He's unlikely to help Fantasy owners in 2013 so long as Ridley is healthy.

Jamar Taylor
Taylor has hernia surgery
Jamar Taylor, CB, MIA
5/21/2013
News: Dolphins rookie cornerback Jamar Taylor had surgery to repair a hernia and will cost him up to three weeks of practice time. He's a candidate to be back for a June minicamp and should be OK for the start of training camp.
Analysis: Taylor was impressive at the Senior Bowl and certainly erased any concerns about his overall athleticism with a stellar performance at the combine. Taylor is a better all-around player than former Boise State standout Kyle Wilson, who was selected by the Jets 29th overall in 2010. But since he's a corner, he has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in most standard IDP leagues, and he's only worth a late-round pick in rookie-only IDP formats.

Mike Goodson
Goodson will plead not guilty
Mike Goodson, RB, NYJ
5/21/2013
News: The Newark Star-Ledger has learned Jets running back Mike Goodson will plead not guilty to drug and weapons charges stemming from a mid-May arrest. His lawyer is confident jail time will be avoided. A hearing is scheduled for June 12.
Analysis: Goodson is taking in Jets workouts from the sideline, a sure sign that his roster spot is up in the air. Between the courts and the league there's no guarantee that Goodson will play for all of the 2013 season. For now owners shouldn't have him on their radars, though if his attorney is as innocent as he suggests, that would change before the majority of people hold their Fantasy drafts.

Victor Cruz
Giants remain confident with Cruz
Victor Cruz, WR, NYG
5/21/2013
News: USA Today reports that Giants chairman Steve Tisch remains confident a deal with receiver Victor Cruz is coming soon. "We're talking. (Cruz's agent) Tom Condon is talking to (Giants general manager) Jerry (Reese) and I'm personally confident that Victor wants to be a Giant, will be a Giant," Tisch said. "He's a great guy. It's just taking its time." The report says Cruz and the Giants have made some progress but a deal isn't imminent, despite a report from the New York Post stating the sides were at the "2-yard line." At this point, it seems they're barely in the red zone, but things could change as the spring winds down. Cruz has yet to sign the tender he was extended as a restricted free agent that would pay him $2.879 million. The Giants could lower the rate to $630,000 if Cruz hasn't signed by June 17, but that might only strain the negotiations.
Analysis: We hope that Cruz is signed prior to training camp because we don't want to see a potential holdout. Continue to monitor what develops, and if Cruz signs on time then he would remain a high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver worth a pick as early as Round 4. If he ends up holding out then his value will decline.

 
 
 
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