It's a weekly headache for every Fantasy owner: How can I maximize the points in my starting lineup?
You'll never get it right. I mean it -- to the point you shouldn't even try. Sure, you can hope to get the best possible score every week, but you have to expect something kooky to happen -- someone to lay down in your starting lineup or blow up from your bench -- just because football is an unpredictable sport. If you get hung up trying to put together the most perfect lineup, you'll second-guess yourself to the point of doing something irrational ... and still end up wrong.
So don't beat yourself up if some wishy-washy option on your bench outscores a tried-and-true stud by 20 points one week. It happens. Don't get caught up playing the if-then game, saying "if I had started Sidney Rice instead of Larry Fitzgerald, then I would have won!" Believe me: Everyone else in your league -- everyone with any semblance of depth, anyway -- could say the same thing.
And seriously, how could you justify starting a recent waiver claim over the best wide receiver in Fantasy Football? Just because you got the wrong outcome doesn't mean you made the wrong decision.
For Week 8, I have DeSean Jackson, Owen Daniels, Roddy White and Steve Smith (Giants). I always start the wrong guys! I'm already starting Andre Johnson, but I have to pick two more. Help! -- Bobby Simms
SW: Look at you, Mr. Perfectionist, trying to control things you can't control.
This situation is more black-and-white than you think, Bobby. You have some players here you should never, ever sit, which means you want to sit the ones that don't fall into that category.
This game is only as hard as you make it.
You seem to have come to that realization yourself with Johnson, so I don't know why you haven't done the same with Daniels, who ranks as the top tight end in Fantasy so far. His 497 receiving yards rank 10th among all players, not just tight ends, and considering he has only one 100-yard game, you can count on him to make a consistent contribution every week.
The other no-brainer in my mind -- and I'll admit this one has some room for debate -- is White. Yes, he's averaged only 53 receiving yards over his last two games and almost half of his 435 yards for the season came in that 210-yard performance at San Francisco in Week 5, but he has at least one touchdown reception in four of his first six games. He's let you down only twice all year, and he should only get more consistent as the top receiver for a team that has had trouble running the ball this year.
I wouldn't have a problem with you opting to start Smith over White if I didn't think we've already seen the best from Smith this year. He looked like a must-start in his first four games, averaging 8.5 catches for 102.8 yards and four touchdowns, but he has declined with the emergence of Hakeem Nicks over his last three, averaging 3.7 catches for 61 yards and zero touchdowns. In the end, I like White's role on offense more -- and oh yeah, he just so happens to have the better matchup this week.
As for Jackson, some people might have to start him and live with his inconsistency, but you don't. Will you leave some big games on the bench because of it? Yes, but that's the penalty for owning a streaky player.
I need some help at running back. Tashard Choice, Shonn Greene and Beanie Wells are all available on the waiver wire in our league. Which of these three has the best potential for the rest of the season? -- Teresa Kennedy, Parker, Colo.
SW: Well, Greene looks like the obvious choice here, which is probably the most confusing way I could word my response given the names of the three running backs in question. No skimming today, folks.
Greene's breakthrough didn't come out of nowhere. He replaced Leon Washington, who suffered a gruesome leg injury and will miss the rest of the season. Washington had split carries almost evenly with starter Thomas Jones, and considering Greene (144 yards) had more success on 19 carries than Jones (121 yards) had on 26, you have to figure the Jets will take that same approach with him. In fact, he might get a larger and larger percentage of the carries as the season progresses since the Jets consider him the eventual replacement for Jones.
Generally, two-man backfields don't make for the most favorable circumstances in Fantasy, but the Jets have plenty of rushing yards to divide between Jones and Greene. They prefer to win by running the ball, limiting their rookie quarterback to less than 200 yards through the air every week since his 272-yard debut in Week 1. And who can blame them given their dominant defense?
I understand the appeal of Wells, who looks like he might have wrangled the starting job away from Tim Hightower with his 14 carries for 67 yards Sunday night, but he's in the opposite situation from Jones and Greene. The Cardinals prefer to win by passing the ball, so he could potentially get every carry of every game and still not have a 100-yard effort. It wouldn't surprise me.
Choice I don't like at all. He got one touch with the return of Felix Jones on Sunday, showing the Cowboys would rather stick with a two-man backfield than go to a three-man backfield. He's nothing more than a handcuff option for Marion Barber owners.
In a standard scoring league, I need to choose two starters between DeAngelo Williams, Marion Barber and Ryan Grant. Who should I start? -- Karl Petrie
SW: Over the last couple weeks, Williams has proven himself to be one of the elite running backs in Fantasy, so I'd have a hard time sitting him even against the most dominant defenses. You can imagine how I feel about him at Arizona this week.
Most of the time, I'd opt to go with Grant over Barber because Grant gets all of his team's touches out of the backfield. Plus, I don't like the way Barber has returned from his quadriceps injury, averaging 47 rushing yards in three games. But Grant goes against a Vikings run defense still capable of shutting down anybody, and Barber goes against a Seahawks run defense that gave up 207 yards to Frank Gore in Week 2.
I usually like to stick with talent, but I think Grant and Barber compare closely enough in that regard that I'd roll the dice and play the matchups. Go with Barber and pray for health.
So in my 10-team league, I drafted Matt Forte and Frank Gore. I was lucky with some trades and picks at wide receiver and ended up with Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Steve Smith, Miles Austin and Devin Hester. I'm 6-1 due to the wide receivers and luck. Would you trade some of the depth at wide receiver along with a running back for an even better running back, or would you sit tight? -- Will Jackson, Dallas
SW: For the most part, I want to say yes. Any time you have depth rotting on your bench, you want to trade it for something you can actually use, and Johnson, Jackson and Austin are all must-start wide receivers in my eyes. Assuming you only have to start two, you have the luxury of dealing one. Smith and Hester are both adequate backups, after all.
Unfortunately, I still have trouble recognizing which running backs would actually represent an upgrade over Forte, who's supposed to be -- and I think still can be -- elite in his own right. Adrian Peterson for sure, Maurice Jones-Drew for sure, and I might throw Ray Rice and DeAngelo Williams into that mix as well. Ronnie Brown, Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton belong in the discussion also, but I don't feel comfortable declaring any of them better than Forte yet.
Notice I haven't even addressed Gore. Yeah, I'd rather have him than Forte. He has more injury concerns after already missing time this season with a hurt ankle, but I trust him to contribute more than I do Forte. You can't overlook that 207-yard performance he had against the Seahawks in Week 2, which is 10 yards more than Forte has in his five games against teams other than the Lions. Gore also has the more favorable schedule the rest of the way, with smooth sailing other than his trip to Green Bay in Week 11 and his trip to Philadelphia in Week 15.
I'd set my sights on Peterson and Jones-Drew first, offering your opponent his choice of Jackson or Austin (Johnson is too good to give up) along with Forte. If that doesn't work, go after any of the other five -- Rice, Williams, Brown, Johnson or Slaton -- but give your opponent the choice of Smith or Hester instead of Jackson or Austin.
If that doesn't work, wait a week. Forte likely has a big performance coming up against the Browns, which should give you more takers.
Is it time to cut Larry Johnson loose? Given the state of the Chiefs offense, is there any hope for Johnson, or is he done as far as Fantasy is concerned? -- Tom Lee
SW: My gut tells me Johnson won't make any real contribution for Fantasy purposes this season. He's averaging 2.7 yards per carry, has declined over the last few years, and plays for a bad team with a poor passing game and a poor offensive line. Making matters worse, he's running his mouth off the field, which earns him no favors with the coaching staff.
Remember what Cedric Benson did for the Bengals last year? If you liked those numbers, you'll like Johnson. (Hint: Benson's numbers this year are waaaay different.)
Of course, I can't rely on my gut. My gut is sometimes wrong, which is why it can digest things like chili cheese fries.
I have to account for that possibility, for the possibility the Chiefs offense suddenly comes to life, Johnson suddenly rediscovers his form, or any number of other events I can't foresee. For that reason, I wouldn't release Johnson just to release him. I'd need to have someone I liked better.
Among the players you might find on waivers, I would release Johnson for Shonn Greene, Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy, Correll Buckhalter or Mike Bell.
You get the idea? I'm not terribly picky, but if I can't get someone I'd actually use, I might as well just hold on to Johnson and hope for the best.
I'm in a 10-team points-per-reception league. My team is on fire at 6-1. My only real weakness is at tight end, where I have Visanthe Shiancoe and Greg Olsen. I'm loaded at wide receiver with Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Hines Ward, Hakeem Nicks, Nate Burleson and Derrick Mason. Should I offer some of those wide receivers for a true No. 1 tight end or just play matchups with Shiancoe and Olsen? -- Chris Wittstruck
SW: I think you can survive with the tight ends you already have, but I don't see the harm in upgrading at a position as long as it doesn't destroy another.
Before anything, you have to decide just who qualifies as a "true No. 1 tight end." Does Jason Witten, who currently ranks 16th at the position in standard scoring? I'd say so. His 33 receptions rank fifth among tight ends even though he doesn't quite have the touchdowns, and the emergence of Miles Austin should help open up the Cowboys' passing game. Does Heath Miller? He doesn't have a history of stellar Fantasy numbers, but his 40 receptions rank tops at the position.
I'd call Witten, Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Owen Daniels, Vernon Davis and Brent Celek as No. 1 tight ends in Fantasy. I wouldn't include Miller or Kellen Winslow in that group, but maybe you're less picky than me. I won't criticize you for it.
Assuming you start only two wide receivers, I wouldn't mind overpaying a little, packaging two of your receivers for any one of those No. 1 tight ends. I'd avoid trading Johnson or Jackson, though. Those are your studs.
Try to make Nicks one of the two receivers you trade. I trust him the least of that bunch since Steve Smith and Mario Manningham still rank ahead of him on the Giants' depth chart.
Someone offered me Matt Forte for Donald Driver in a league where we start two running backs and two wide receivers. I have depth at wide receiver, and I feel OK about my running backs too, but I have a feeling Forte could break out eventually. At running back, I have Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, Steven Jackson and Glen Coffee. At wide receiver, I have Marques Colston, Chad Ochocinco, Miles Austin, Austin Collie and Driver. Thoughts? -- Ryan Finley, McHenry, Ill.
SW: Looks like you don't really need Forte since you have an excess of must-start running backs in Benson, Brown and Jackson. Then again, you don't really need Driver since you already have Colston, Ochocinco (sigh) and Austin. Shoot, when will you have a chance to use Collie, much less Driver?
So because need is a non-issue with this trade, you should only concern yourself with the value, which I think is in your favor.
Yes, Driver has played like one of the best wide receivers in Fantasy this season, ranking 15th at the position in standard scoring, but he's on pace to have a career year at age 34. That just doesn't happen. Greg Jennings has to get in on the act eventually -- he's younger and has outperformed Driver in recent years -- and when he does, Driver won't have as much to offer.
Forte, as you know, was a first-round pick in Fantasy. He gets almost all the touches out of the Bears backfield and is coming off a rookie season in which he totaled 1,715 yards. True, he doesn't seem capable of repeating that number this season, but he has both the ability and the opportunity. Opposing defenses have to respect Jay Cutler's arm, which should eventually clear space for Forte.
That's the hope, anyway. I'll be the first to admit it might not happen, but what do you have to lose? You won't play Driver, who can only go down from here. Forte can only go up from here and has as much upside as any player in Fantasy.
In your situation, the decision is obvious, but I'd probably make this deal even if I didn't have quite your depth at wide receiver. I wouldn't want to leave myself in a position where I'd have to start someone like Antonio Bryant, but otherwise, Forte's upside justifies the risk.
I have Marques Colston, Mike Sims-Walker and Sidney Rice going into next week. In my league, I can start two wide receivers. Colston is a must-start, but who's a better choice between Rice and Sims-Walker? -- Alejandro Garza
SW: I agree Colston is a must-start, though I wish he'd find a way produce every week instead of going boom-or-bust on us. Still, his boom is too big to risk missing.
I keep coming back to Sims-Walker's consistency. Since emerging as the Jaguars' go-to receiver in Week 2, he has yet to record less than 81 yards receiving in a game, averaging seven catches for 99.5 yards with three touchdowns in four games. He has yet to play and not deliver big numbers, so I don't know how you can justify benching him.
I like the way Rice has gotten in sync with Brett Favre over the last couple weeks and wish you could find a way to start him too, but of the two, I consider Sims-Walker more trustworthy.
As a tiebreaker (not that I need one), the Vikings face a stronger defense at Green Bay than the Jaguars do at Tennessee. That kind of assessment can get misleading since strength of defense often determines approach on offense, but again, let's not overthink things here.
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