Nov. 1, 2009

First Response: Houston's win is our loss

By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

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The Texans found out what it's like to win and lose all in the same day. They had a bittersweet victory against the Bills on Sunday.

While the 31-10 win at Buffalo put the Texans (5-3) in the middle of the AFC playoff race, they are now dealing with questions at running back and tight end with Steve Slaton and Owen Daniels. And Fantasy owners need to pay attention to what happens over the next few days.

The biggest news dealt with Daniels, who left the game with a right knee injury and could have a torn ACL. He will undergo tests Monday, but coach Gary Kubiak said after the game "it doesn't look good."


It's safe to say that Ryan Moats was not on the radar of most owners entering Week 8. (US Presswire)

Coming into Week 8, Daniels was the No. 1 tight end in standard-scoring Fantasy leagues with 39 catches for 497 yards and five touchdowns. He led all tight ends in targets (56) and yards, and he was second in catches and touchdowns.

If Daniels is out as expected, the Texans will likely lean on reserve tight ends in Joel Dreessen, James Casey and Anthony Hill, but none are as talented as Daniels. Casey would likely be the one to target in deep Fantasy leagues, and all three backup tight ends are available in 100 percent of leagues on CBSSports.com.

If you're looking for a tight end off the waiver wire, some who could be available are Fred Davis (24 percent ownership), Benjamin Watson (43 percent), Dustin Keller (54 percent), Kevin Boss (37 percent), Tony Scheffler (51 percent) or Todd Heap (67 percent). We'll get more into this topic Tuesday in Playing the Waiver Wire, but those are some options to consider with Daniels hurt.

The Texans could also use more three- and four-receiver sets, which could increase the value for Jacoby Jones and even David Anderson. But with Daniels out, Matt Schaub's Fantasy value takes a hit as well, and he came into Week 8 tied with Tom Brady as the No. 1 quarterback in standard-scoring leagues.

The situation with Slaton could be harder to figure out. He had one carry and lost a fumble, his fifth of the season, and was replaced by Ryan Moats.

All Moats did was get 23 carries for 126 yards and three touchdowns and catch two passes for 25 yards against the Bills. Moats had more rushing touchdowns in one game than Slaton (two) has on the ground this season.

Kubiak wouldn't say if Slaton has permanently lost his job, but the fumbles have become an issue. And Slaton, despite his big plays as a receiver, hasn't run well with a 3.1 yards per carry coming into Week 8.

The first thing every Slaton owner needs to do is add Moats immediately, and he is available in 100 percent of leagues. If Moats is named the starter, he is going to be the hottest commodity on the waiver wire heading into Week 9.

Hopefully the Texans won't bench Slaton for the rest of the season, but his Fantasy value took a major hit. You can't trade him now, and you're likely going to have to just ride this out while keeping him on the bench. Slaton was started in 98 percent of leagues against Buffalo.

Houston has problems, and Fantasy owners are just going to have to wait and see what develops. This wasn't a fun victory for the Texans.

Let's take a look around at the rest of the Week 8 action ...

Start of the Week review: Only one quarterback passed for four touchdowns in Week 8, and it was Brett Favre. We expected his return to Green Bay would be special, and he didn't let us down. He was 17 of 28 passing for 244 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Favre, who was only started in 44 percent of leagues, had seven touchdown passes and no interceptions against his former team. He now has 16 touchdowns and three interceptions as the Vikings head into their bye week.

Sit of the Week review: Frank Gore again used a big run to have a banner Fantasy day and prove us wrong. Gore had 13 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown and five catches for 43 yards at Indianapolis. He now has three touchdown runs of more than 60 yards on the season and looks 100 percent after missing two games with an ankle injury in Weeks 4 and 5. Gore should have another good game in Week 9 against Tennessee and plan on keeping him in your lineup in all leagues.

Insane stat line of the day: Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew are two of the best running backs in the league and great Fantasy options, but they combined for 405 rushing yards and four touchdowns in Tennessee. Johnson set a team record with 228 rushing yards, and Jones-Drew only needed eight carries for 177 rushing yards. They each scored two touchdowns, and this was Johnson's second game over 200 total yards this season (284 in Week 2 against Houston). This is why you drafted Jones-Drew and Johnson with first-round picks, and hopefully they can keep this up all season.

Out-of-nowhere stat line of the day: So much for Arizona having the No. 1 run defense in the NFL coming into Week 8. DeAngelo Williams ran for 158 yards, and Jonathan Stewart had 87 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinals got exposed, and not just in run defense. Kurt Warner did his best Jake Delhomme impersonation with five interceptions and a fumble. And Steve Smith finally scored his first touchdown this season and finished with three catches for 56 yards and the touchdown. Maybe the Panthers exorcised some demons by beating the Cardinals after that playoff loss last year and can start playing at a high level again.

Guy we were way right about: Tony Romo continues to play at a high level with the insertion of Miles Austin in the starting lineup the past three games. Romo was 21 of 36 passing for 256 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, but he did lose a fumble against the Seahawks. Romo now has eight touchdowns and no interceptions the past three games against Kansas City, Atlanta and Seattle. He heads into next week's showdown at Philadelphia as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback again in all leagues. And Austin had five catches for 61 yards and a touchdown, his fifth in the past three games.

Guy we were way wrong about: Donovan McNabb snapped out of his two-game funk against Oakland and Washington with a solid game against the Giants. McNabb was 17 of 23 passing for 240 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, but he also lost a fumble. McNabb threw touchdowns to DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek and Jeremy Maclin, and he looks like he's back in rhythm heading into the game with the Cowboys next week. Look for McNabb to finish the season strong, and he's back as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback.

Overachieving defense of the week: The Ravens showed their defense is still a force in taking apart what had been a solid Broncos offense in a 30-7 victory. They got a kickoff return for a touchdown from Lardarius Webb, forced a fumble on Knowshon Moreno and got two sacks. The Ravens also held Kyle Orton to 152 passing yards and no touchdowns and Brandon Marshall to four catches for 24 yards. This is the Ravens defense we're used to seeing after some dismal performances the past three weeks against Minnesota, Cincinnati and New England.

Underachieving defense of the week: The Chargers had every opportunity to do what the Jets defense did in Week 7 against the Raiders in a 38-0 victory. Instead, San Diego allowed the Raiders to score 16 points with only one interception and no fumble recoveries. The Chargers did get five sacks, including two by Shawne Merriman, but they should have been the No. 1 DST unit in every Fantasy league.

Names to add to your scout team ...

Alex Smith, quarterback, San Francisco (Completed 19 of 32 passes for 198 yards, one touchdown and one interception at Indianapolis)
Vince Young, quarterback, Tennessee (Completed 15 of 18 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown and ran for 30 yards against Jacksonville)
Ryan Moats, running back, Houston (23 carries for 126 yards and three touchdowns and two catches for 25 yards in place of the benched Steve Slaton at Buffalo)
Maurice Morris, running back, Detroit (14 carries for 63 yards and one catch for 19 yards and came on for the injured Kevin Smith against St. Louis)
Malcom Floyd, wide receiver, San Diego (two catches, 64 yards and started in place of Chris Chambers against Oakland)

Injury alerts ...

Aaron Rodgers, foot, considered probable for Week 9 at Tampa Bay
Jake Delhomme, chest, considered probable for Week 9 at New Orleans
Kevin Smith, shoulder, considered questionable for Week 9 at Seattle
Anquan Boldin, ankle, considered questionable for Week 9 at Chicago
Devin Hester, ankle, considered questionable for Week 9 vs. Arizona
Owen Daniels, knee, considered doubtful for rest of the season

The last word: Start trying to shop Matt Forte now coming off his outing against the Browns. He had his best game of the season with 26 carries for 90 yards and two touchdowns and two catches for 31 yards. Forte could run well in Week 9 against the Cardinals based on how they looked against the Panthers, but his schedule is tough the rest of the season, including two games against the Vikings and one at Baltimore. With his value now at a high point, see if you can get something good in return that can help your lineup the rest of the way.

What stood out to you this week? How did your Fantasy teams do? Drop us a line and tell us about it at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Week 8 in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll respond to as many as e-mails we can.

PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM

News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.

Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM

News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."

Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM

News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.

Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM

News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.

Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM

News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.

Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM

News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.

Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM

News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”

Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM

News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.

Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM

News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.

Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM

News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.

Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

More Updates

1	Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB
2	Drew Brees, NO, QB
3	Tom Brady, NE, QB
4	Cam Newton, CAR, QB
5	Matthew Stafford, DET, QB
6	Philip Rivers, SD, QB
7	Eli Manning, NYG, QB
8	Tony Romo, DAL, QB
9	Michael Vick, PHI, QB
10	Peyton Manning, IND, QB
All Rankings

1	Arian Foster, HOU, RB
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI, RB
3	Ray Rice, BAL, RB
4	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC, RB
5	Matt Forte, CHI, RB
6	Marshawn Lynch, SEA, RB
7	Ryan Mathews, SD, RB
8	Chris Johnson, TEN, RB
9	Adrian Peterson, MIN, RB
10	Steven Jackson, STL, RB
All Rankings

1	Calvin Johnson, DET, WR
2	Wes Welker, NE, WR
3	Roddy White, ATL, WR
4	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, WR
5	Hakeem Nicks, NYG, WR
6	Greg Jennings, GB, WR
7	Victor Cruz, NYG, WR
8	A.J. Green, CIN, WR
9	Mike Wallace, PIT, WR
10	Miles Austin, DAL, WR
All Rankings

1	Rob Gronkowski, NE, TE
2	Jimmy Graham, NO, TE
3	Aaron Hernandez, NE, TE
4	Antonio Gates, SD, TE
5	Jason Witten, DAL, TE
6	Tony Gonzalez, ATL, TE
7	Vernon Davis, SF, TE
8	Jermichael Finley, GB, TE
9	Brent Celek, PHI, TE
10	Fred Davis, WAS, TE
All Rankings

1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE, K
2	Mason Crosby, GB, K
3	Sebastian Janikowski, OAK, K
4	David Akers, SF, K
5	Garrett Hartley, NO, K
6	Dan Bailey, DAL, K
7	Jason Hanson, DET, K
8	Neil Rackers, HOU, K
9	Alex Henery, PHI, K
10	Nate Kaeding, SD, K
All Rankings

1	49ers, DST
2	Texans, DST
3	Ravens, DST
4	Giants, DST
5	Steelers, DST
6	Seahawks, DST
7	Eagles, DST
8	Packers, DST
9	Jets, DST
10	Patriots, DST
All Rankings