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Dave Richard

Fantasy & Reality: The 40-year-old surgeon

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


If you're tired of reading about Brett Favre, I've got bad news for you.

Like him or not, Favre's pasting of the Packers in Week 8 is just the backdrop for what should be considered one heck of a comeback season. Not to get all John Madden on you, but Favre is playing incredible football these days, and a letdown doesn't seem to be on the horizon.

Through eight weeks, Favre is on pace for 32 touchdowns, six interceptions and 3,850 passing yards. Moreover, he's completed 68 percent of his passes, which would easily be a career-best for a single season if he was to keep it up. Favre has fit right in with what the Vikings are doing offensively and has developed an impressive receiving corps while playing behind a good offensive line handing off to one of the best running backs in the league today.

Fantasy Football - Fantasy & Reality: The 40-year-old surgeon : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

Throw in a good defense to give Favre some solid field position from time to time and a dream schedule, and you've got the makings of a great Fantasy quarterback. This is something we knew had the potential of happening before the season, but not with this much overwhelming proof.

Kudos to those of you who own Favre in your leagues. Whether he's your full-time starter, situational starter based on matchups or your De facto backup, you've secured a gem for the rest of '09.

But you also have some decisions to make.

Favre was started in 44 percent of CBSSports.com leagues in Week 8. Even in a year flooded with capable Fantasy quarterbacks, that seems low. The guy currently ranks fifth among passers in standard-scoring leagues (he might be sixth after Drew Brees gets through the Falcons on Monday) and has put up at least 20 Fantasy points (standard-scoring leagues) in four of his last six games. Every single Favre owner has to decide whether he's going to be a benefit for his or her Fantasy team, or a piece to trade for a valuable starter.

The best way to go about determining this is to see how he matches up with other quarterbacks in the league. Even with his big game in Week 8 and his previous outings, there are some quarterbacks you just can't start him over. Likewise, there are some quarterbacks who you might think you can't start him over, but should.

Decisively better than Favre: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers. No rocket science here as these guys are expected to put up big stats regardless of their opponent week in and week out. The same actually can't be said about Favre, who earlier this season leaned on Adrian Peterson to shoulder the load in three of the Vikings' wins and put up nominal stat totals in those games. Of course, the Vikings have leaned on Peterson just as much in other games while Favre puts up great numbers. Conclusion: If you own Favre and one of these quarterbacks, you should trade Favre.

Better than Favre, for now: Philip Rivers, Tony Romo. Based on how they've been playing, there's no reason to believe pulling these guys for Favre would be a wise move. Romo is red hot and while Rivers has been hot and cold, his schedule going forward should result in a lot of passing. Conclusion: If you own Favre and one of these quarterbacks, you should trade Favre.

As good as Favre: Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Matt Schaub. You might be surprised to see Schaub on this list. The only reason why he's even here and not on one of the other lists is because tight end Owen Daniels is lost for the season with a torn ACL. Daniels made up roughly 20 percent of the Texans' passing offense, and with him out Schaub will struggle to find the going so good. With two of his next three games against the Colts' star-studded secondary, he might start underperforming. As for Cutler and McNabb, they're more unsettling than anything else. If you punt on Favre and stick with McNabb or Cutler, you're leaving yourself open to one of their trademark games where they turn the ball over a bunch or can't connect for a ton of stats. We've seen games like those from both of them recently, and neither one has a great schedule to finish the season. Conclusion: If you own Favre and one of these quarterbacks, play the matchups unless you get a great offer for one of your quarterbacks.

Not as good as Favre: Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Kurt Warner. Don't even think twice about it -- these quarterbacks have their strengths but they're also prone to bad games. They are in no way locks to put up big numbers each week and are at best guys you might consider as quality backups for Favre. Conclusion: If you own Favre and one of these quarterbacks, either trade the other quarterback or keep him as a backup/situational starter.

Everyone else pales in comparison to Favre as far as Fantasy Football goes, and I doubt anyone would fight me on that.

Let me share one last reason to trade Favre right now: The Vikings are on a bye in Week 9. Very rarely can you trade a stud to a desperate Fantasy owner on his bye week, but Favre is an exception simply because the owner getting Favre might rationalize that he'll use him starting in Week 10 and plug in someone else until then.

And one more note: Favre's owners have two weeks to trade him -- his value isn't going anywhere between now and his next game (vs. Detroit) as part of a three-game homestand starting in Week 10.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.

Fantasy: Frank Gore will struggle at Indianapolis. Remember in Swingers when Mikey lost $200 of his $300 bankroll on his first hand of blackjack, then Trent compliments him when he eventually cashes out for $120? "Nice, baby, you're up twenty bucks!" Trent said, "I mean, not counting what happened on the first table." That's how I feel about Gore after Week 8. Take away his 64-yard touchdown run and he had 70 total yards on 17 touches. Nothing special -- but that's not what counts in Fantasy Football, and now I feel like Mikey.

Reality: DeAngelo Williams will run on the Cardinals. I doubt Panthers offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson reads my stuff, but after bashing his playcalling last week I must say he got it right this week, leaning on his run game to crack the Cardinals. And see what Jake Delhomme can do when his run game is up to par? If they didn't have to play the Patriots, Vikings and Saints twice, I wouldn't write off the Panthers.

Fantasy: Kyle Orton will expose the Ravens' secondary. Great job by the Ravens as the defense took away Orton's time to throw deep by sending pressure and keeping their cornerbacks close to the Broncos' receivers. And it's a bad time for the Broncos to get exposed like this -- the Steelers come to Denver well rested in Week 9. It's going to be hard to trust Orton in that matchup, especially if he plays without right tackle Ryan Harris.

Reality: The Titans secondary got healthy and improved in the process. We weren't sure if cornerback Cortland Finnegan would play for Tennessee, nor were we sure he'd be an asset for them. But the play of Finnegan and DB Vincent Fuller, both coming back from injury, along with journeyman Rod Hood all contributed to David Garrard's struggles on Sunday. Worse yet, Mike Sims-Walker went from hero to zero after his two-catch, three-target day. Don't hesitate to start him next week vs. the Chiefs, though.

Fantasy: Donovan McNabb won't shine against the Giants. McNabb seems to go through these inexplicable stretches where he's woefully inconsistent. Last year it happened at about the exact same time as this year when his stats mostly sunk over a five-game stretch before perking up in November. But in 2007 he kicked tail in four October games before a stinker in his fifth, two games before getting hurt for the season. The key in this matchup was that he simply was on target when he took his downfield shots. Having two possessions inside of 2:00 in the first half didn't hurt things, either.

Reality: Peyton Manning: Zero touchdowns. Matt Schaub: Zero touchdowns. Jay Cutler: Zero touchdowns. Rams kicker Josh Brown: One touchdown. Joseph Addai: One touchdown pass. Some things just cannot be explained.

Strategy Session

I have major Texans issues -- Owen Daniels is out for the season and Steve Slaton is in the dog house. Help?!

Let's start with Daniels as his situation is more concrete. He has reportedly torn a ligament in his knee, an injury that requires season-ending surgery. And just like that, the No. 1 tight end in standard-scoring leagues entering Week 8 is worthless.

And as I mentioned earlier, Daniels took up 20 percent of the Texans offense: 21 percent of Matt Schaub's completions went to Daniels and just over 20 percent of Schaub's yards were made up by Daniels. Those stats will be tough to replace in Houston, but Joel Dreessen will be the first to get a chance. Dreessen has five catches for 52 yards this season and the four-year veteran has a career 9.0 yards per catch average. It's not a stretch to suggest that he's not the best possible replacement for Daniels in Fantasy leagues.

We're fortunate to be in a season where many tight ends are putting up good stats, so Daniels' Fantasy owners probably won't have to look past the waiver wire to find help. Dustin Keller was blackballed from many rosters before coming back to life against the Dolphins for 76 yards and a touchdown on eight catches. Consistency is obviously an issue for him but there's no doubt that he's an athletic pass-catching tight end -- he's even in the top 12 in targets at the position. Todd Heap, Zach Miller and Kevin Boss are also candidates to replace Daniels. One guy to target in trade: Jermichael Finley of the Packers (assuming he's not a free agent) -- his value is low because he's hurt and the Packers have a very good schedule down the stretch.

Now let's move to Slaton, who many Fantasy owners started in Week 8 with grand visions of ... oh, I don't know, say over 150 total yards and three touchdowns? The Texans rolled up the Bills' awful run defense, but it was Ryan Moats who came in after Slaton fumbled his first carry and never looked back.

Apparently Gary Kubiak doesn't play Fantasy Football. Or, he does and he has Moats on his team.

Moats is the kind of running back I typically drool over: Small, shifty, great acceleration, good enough hands. But he's injury prone. Think Brian Westbrook, which is pretty much dead-on accurate since that's what the Eagles thought when they drafted him out of Louisiana Tech in 2005. But they sent Moats to the curb after injuries kept him sidelined, and he latched on with the Texans late last season as a kickoff-return candidate before bursting on the scene on Sunday.

The Texans have two options after their Week 8 win: Lean on Moats exclusively or split his reps with Slaton. Moats sure looked great against the Bills, and he might even put up a big game against Indianapolis next week. But because of his injury-plagued past, my hunch is that Slaton will still earn a piece of the rushing workload so long as he doesn't cough up the football.

That hurts Fantasy owners more than it helps because if there is indeed a split, then both Moats and Slaton won't be any better than, say, low-end No. 2 Fantasy rushers. Throw in Chris Brown, who saw seven carries against Buffalo, as a potential touchdown vulture, and Houston's entire run game has become a muddled mess of New England-esque proportions.

As Jamey Eisenberg wrote on Sunday, trading Slaton isn't an option because you can't get anything for him. Cutting him seems harsh. Starting him seems too risky. Benching him is just about the only option you've got. That, and doing whatever you can to add Moats to your roster. If there's one thing favoring Slaton, it's that he's healthy and he's proven to be a good running back in the past. He just has to control his fumbling.

Ultimately, I have a bad feeling that the Texans' high-powered offense is in for some long Sunday afternoons.

Parting Shots

• Five interceptions later, Kurt Warner knows what it's like to be Jake Delhomme.

• Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew total more rushing yards (405) than Brandon Jacobs, Ray Rice, Joseph Addai, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Smith and Beanie Wells combined!

• The Panthers run defense might be allowing a touchdown on the ground per week since their bye, but they've allowed a total of 207 rush yards through that span (three games). They've improved there, but they'll get tested next week at New Orleans.

• The Rams won in spite of the dumbest safety since Dan Orlovsky accidentally ran out of the end zone. One reason why: Steven Jackson. He's had six games with 100 total yards or more in his last seven -- on a team with little to no other offensive weapons to help him.

• Welcome back to Earth, Sidney Rice.

• Calvin Johnson's knee must be seriously messed up.

• I'm not going to say it again, but if you've been keeping up with us and you have Matt Forte, you know what you have to do.

• Am I late to the Willis McGahee Fantasy value funeral? He's legitimately worth cutting. What a shocking decline.

• Green Bay fans: You got your first taste of what everyone else around the league has been eating for the last 17 years -- losing to Favre. How's it taste?

• Last week we had four 300-yard passers and eight 100-yard receivers. This week, one 300-yard passer and two 100-yard receivers. It was just that kind of week.

• If I were the Chiefs and Larry Johnson called out my head coach like he did, he wouldn't play for me again. Now I realize that the bigger offense was his use of a homosexual slur, but the disrespect he showed Todd Haley last week is unacceptable, especially if Haley plans on hanging around Kansas City for the next several years. With the season lost and the team turning to younger talent anyway, I'd deactivate Johnson each week for the rest of the season. I hope the Chiefs are thinking the same way, because if they're not, they're sending a pretty bad message to the rest of the roster.

Dave wishes he could be like 'Doubledown' from Swingers, but he's definitely cooler than Sue. He also wishes that Swingers references were current. At least he knows football -- drop him a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com and put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, follow Dave on Twitter at @daverichard. You're so money!

 
 
 
Player News
Matt Schaub
Schaub doing well in rehab
Matt Schaub, QB, HOU
1:03 PM
News: The Houston Chronicle reports Tuesday that Texans QB Matt Schaub, who finished the season on injured reserve following foot surgery, is doing well and his rehab is ahead of schedule. The report says Schaub works out almost every day.
Analysis: This is great news, and we expect Schaub to return at 100 percent in 2012. Continue to monitor what happens with Schaub, but he should be considered a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 Fantasy QB heading into the season. He is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues on Draft Day.

Lofa Tatupu
Tatupu visits Saints
Lofa Tatupu, LB, SEA
2:36 PM
News: Free agent LB Lofau Tatupu visited with the Saints on Monday, according to NFL.com. The 29-year-old Tatupu sat out the 2011 season. The former Pro Bowl MLB was asked to take a pay cut by the Seahawks after the lockout ended last summer, and subsequently asked for his release. Tatupu was scheduled to visit with the Raiders and Redskins in August, but didn't sign with anyone and fell off the radar for the remainder of the year while he reportedly dealt with a knee injury. Tatupu was scheduled to earn more than $4 million in 2011 before his release by Seattle. The six-year veteran was a second-round pick and has played in three Pro Bowls. But he also started to wear down from 2008-2010, including finishing 2009 on injured reserve with a knee injury. He did start all 16 games in 2010, but had surgery on both knees during the offseason.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Tatupu and where he plays in 2012. When healthy and active he could be a No. 3 Fantasy LB worth a late-round pick in IDP leagues.

Ravens
Flacco, Ravens to work on deal
Ravens, TQB BAL,
12:47 PM
News: The NFL Network reports that the Ravens are set to open contract extension talks with QB Joe Flacco's agent at the NFL Combine next week. The report says both sides aim for a long-term deal. Flacco is entering a contract year in 2012, and Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti recently said Flacco would be the team's starting quarterback for years to come.
Analysis: Flacco's won a lot of games for the Ravens but hasn't taken the next step statistically, even when the team added Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. Flacco has had between 3,610 and 3,622 passing yards and between 20 and 25 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons. But this year his completion percentage and yards per attempt dropped like a rock while his pass attempts hit a career high (542, breaking the previous mark of 499). Flacco fits the bill as a great No. 2 Fantasy QB; though he's finally outfitted with a quality receiving corps, he simply doesn't invoke much confidence as a starting option. Look for him late in drafts.

Jahvid Best
Best 'on pace' for offseason work
Jahvid Best, RB, DET
12:43 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems even though team president Tom Lewand is optimistic. Lewand said Best is "on pace" to be ready for offseason workouts, and he is looking forward to seeing Best and Mikel Leshoure play together. "Jahvid is a special player and he'll be even more dynamic when he can ... share the load with a guy like Mikel in the backfield."
Analysis: We hope Best can return at 100 percent, but he will likely be used as a change of pace rusher and a third-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Best, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick in standard leagues and a mid-round selection in PPR formats since he will likely be used in tandem with Leshoure and possibly Kevin Smith if he returns as a free agent.

Mikel Leshoure
Leshoure's recovery going well
Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
12:40 PM
News: The Detroit Free-Press reports that Lions RB Mikel Leshoure, who tore his left Achilles tendon in the second week of training camp last year, is close to making a full recovery. At the Lions’ request, Leshoure just moved the final stages of his rehab back to Detroit from Arizona. He’s doing resistance work and light running and is expected to join OTA workouts at some point this offseason. Leshoure looked like he was going to be a key part of the Lions offense when injury struck last August, and the team is anxious to get a read on him this spring. RB Jahvid Best’s status remains uncertain because of concussion problems, and even if Best returns it’s clear he’s not an every-down back.
Analysis: Leshoure should be considered a great sleeper heading into 2012, and he is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy RB as long as he's healthy. He has tremendous upside, and he could be a great weapon for the Lions, especially with Best struggling as an every-down back. Continue to monitor what happens with Leshoure, but he is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in 2012.

Mike Wallace
Steelers want to lock up Wallace
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
12:17 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday the team wants to keep WR Mike Wallace "here for the long run." Wallace, their leading receiver last season, will become a restricted free agent March 13.
Analysis: Wallace played well in 2011 with 72 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns on 114 targets. He will remain in Pittsburgh in 2012, and hopefully he can sign a long-term deal. We consider Wallace a Top 10 Fantasy WR on Draft Day, and he should be selected in all leagues in Round 3.

Hines Ward
GM says no decision on Ward yet
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
12:13 PM
News: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on whether WR Hines Ward will be back with the Steelers in 2012. "To this current point, no final decisions have been made," Colbert said. "We've had several discussions internally. We're right in the midst of our free agent evaluations of other teams' free agents. We'll meet on those [on the Steelers roster] starting Thursday and carry through Monday." A recent report on NFL Network said that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Brandon Lloyd
Pats could go after Lloyd
Brandon Lloyd, WR, STL
12:08 PM
News: The Boston Herald reports that the Patriots will be in the market for a WR this year, and one obvious possibility is Brandon Lloyd, who is an impending free agent, because of his ties to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The fact that Lloyd said “I’m tied to McDaniels” makes him a likely free agent target. Lloyd had 51 catches for 683 yards and five TDs last year in 11 games in St. Louis when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator makes him look pretty good after he amassed 77 catches for 1,448 yards and 11 scores with Denver when McDaniels was the coach.
Analysis: One holdup for Lloyd and the Patriots could be Lloyd's agent, Tom Condon, who has a rocky relationship with the Patriots. We'll see what plays out this offseason, but if Lloyd signs in New England he would be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy WR. He could still return to the Rams, where he would be a strong No. 3 option. Or he could shop himself around the league. Stay tuned, but either way Lloyd is worth a mid-round pick in all leagues.

Bills
Fitzpatrick finished season hurt
Bills, TQB BUF,
11:53 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's second-half swoon in 2011 was mystifying to fans and media who concluded the front office badly miscalculated in handing the career journeyman a 10-year, $60 million contract extension. But now it appears Fitzpatrick played the final nine games last season with cracked ribs. "A lot of people don't know, but Fitz, during the Washington game, actually cracked a couple of ribs," WR David Nelson said. "So after that he was playing hurt." It showed. In Fitzpatrick's first seven games of the year, he threw for 1,739 yards, 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After the injury, he had 2,093 yards, 10 touchdowns and 16 picks. He finished the year with a league-high 23 interceptions. "It's hard to find the silver lining but as we evaluate the season and what went right and what went wrong I'm sure we'll find a lot of positives and a lot of things that we can carry into next year hopefully and continue to get better at it," Fitzpatrick said.
Analysis: Fitzpatrick obviously has 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown potential, but issues involving the personnel around him along with his own issues (accuracy, for one) make him risky for weekly use in Fantasy. Figure that he's worth a late-round pick as a good No. 2 Fantasy QB with potential to be a low-end starter. It should only help him if the Bills not only re-sign Steve Johnson this offseason, but also add talent at wide receiver.

Josh Scobee
Jags want Scobee back
Josh Scobee, K, JAC
11:47 AM
News: The Sports Xchange reports that Jacksonville has most of its top offensive players locked into contracts for the coming season with one notable exception - kicker Josh Scobee, who is an eight-year veteran. Scobee has been one of the league's most accurate kickers in his eight seasons with the Jaguars, converting better than 75 percent of his field-goal attempts in all but one season. Scobee led the team in scoring last year with 92 points, including 23 of 25 (92 percent) field-goal attempts, the second time in his career he's finished over 90 percent with his kicks. It isn't likely the Jaguars would use the franchise tag on him and probably won't have to. They'll make every attempt to sign him. For a team that was among the league's lowest scoring clubs, the Jaguars can ill afford to lose a player with Scobee's talents.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Scobee. He is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but he could be used as a bye-week replacement as long as he remains with the Jaguars.

 
 
 
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