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Dave Richard

Fantasy & Reality: The 40-year-old surgeon

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


If you're tired of reading about Brett Favre, I've got bad news for you.

Like him or not, Favre's pasting of the Packers in Week 8 is just the backdrop for what should be considered one heck of a comeback season. Not to get all John Madden on you, but Favre is playing incredible football these days, and a letdown doesn't seem to be on the horizon.

Through eight weeks, Favre is on pace for 32 touchdowns, six interceptions and 3,850 passing yards. Moreover, he's completed 68 percent of his passes, which would easily be a career-best for a single season if he was to keep it up. Favre has fit right in with what the Vikings are doing offensively and has developed an impressive receiving corps while playing behind a good offensive line handing off to one of the best running backs in the league today.

Fantasy Football - Fantasy & Reality: The 40-year-old surgeon : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

Throw in a good defense to give Favre some solid field position from time to time and a dream schedule, and you've got the makings of a great Fantasy quarterback. This is something we knew had the potential of happening before the season, but not with this much overwhelming proof.

Kudos to those of you who own Favre in your leagues. Whether he's your full-time starter, situational starter based on matchups or your De facto backup, you've secured a gem for the rest of '09.

But you also have some decisions to make.

Favre was started in 44 percent of CBSSports.com leagues in Week 8. Even in a year flooded with capable Fantasy quarterbacks, that seems low. The guy currently ranks fifth among passers in standard-scoring leagues (he might be sixth after Drew Brees gets through the Falcons on Monday) and has put up at least 20 Fantasy points (standard-scoring leagues) in four of his last six games. Every single Favre owner has to decide whether he's going to be a benefit for his or her Fantasy team, or a piece to trade for a valuable starter.

The best way to go about determining this is to see how he matches up with other quarterbacks in the league. Even with his big game in Week 8 and his previous outings, there are some quarterbacks you just can't start him over. Likewise, there are some quarterbacks who you might think you can't start him over, but should.

Decisively better than Favre: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers. No rocket science here as these guys are expected to put up big stats regardless of their opponent week in and week out. The same actually can't be said about Favre, who earlier this season leaned on Adrian Peterson to shoulder the load in three of the Vikings' wins and put up nominal stat totals in those games. Of course, the Vikings have leaned on Peterson just as much in other games while Favre puts up great numbers. Conclusion: If you own Favre and one of these quarterbacks, you should trade Favre.

Better than Favre, for now: Philip Rivers, Tony Romo. Based on how they've been playing, there's no reason to believe pulling these guys for Favre would be a wise move. Romo is red hot and while Rivers has been hot and cold, his schedule going forward should result in a lot of passing. Conclusion: If you own Favre and one of these quarterbacks, you should trade Favre.

As good as Favre: Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Matt Schaub. You might be surprised to see Schaub on this list. The only reason why he's even here and not on one of the other lists is because tight end Owen Daniels is lost for the season with a torn ACL. Daniels made up roughly 20 percent of the Texans' passing offense, and with him out Schaub will struggle to find the going so good. With two of his next three games against the Colts' star-studded secondary, he might start underperforming. As for Cutler and McNabb, they're more unsettling than anything else. If you punt on Favre and stick with McNabb or Cutler, you're leaving yourself open to one of their trademark games where they turn the ball over a bunch or can't connect for a ton of stats. We've seen games like those from both of them recently, and neither one has a great schedule to finish the season. Conclusion: If you own Favre and one of these quarterbacks, play the matchups unless you get a great offer for one of your quarterbacks.

Not as good as Favre: Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Kurt Warner. Don't even think twice about it -- these quarterbacks have their strengths but they're also prone to bad games. They are in no way locks to put up big numbers each week and are at best guys you might consider as quality backups for Favre. Conclusion: If you own Favre and one of these quarterbacks, either trade the other quarterback or keep him as a backup/situational starter.

Everyone else pales in comparison to Favre as far as Fantasy Football goes, and I doubt anyone would fight me on that.

Let me share one last reason to trade Favre right now: The Vikings are on a bye in Week 9. Very rarely can you trade a stud to a desperate Fantasy owner on his bye week, but Favre is an exception simply because the owner getting Favre might rationalize that he'll use him starting in Week 10 and plug in someone else until then.

And one more note: Favre's owners have two weeks to trade him -- his value isn't going anywhere between now and his next game (vs. Detroit) as part of a three-game homestand starting in Week 10.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.

Fantasy: Frank Gore will struggle at Indianapolis. Remember in Swingers when Mikey lost $200 of his $300 bankroll on his first hand of blackjack, then Trent compliments him when he eventually cashes out for $120? "Nice, baby, you're up twenty bucks!" Trent said, "I mean, not counting what happened on the first table." That's how I feel about Gore after Week 8. Take away his 64-yard touchdown run and he had 70 total yards on 17 touches. Nothing special -- but that's not what counts in Fantasy Football, and now I feel like Mikey.

Reality: DeAngelo Williams will run on the Cardinals. I doubt Panthers offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson reads my stuff, but after bashing his playcalling last week I must say he got it right this week, leaning on his run game to crack the Cardinals. And see what Jake Delhomme can do when his run game is up to par? If they didn't have to play the Patriots, Vikings and Saints twice, I wouldn't write off the Panthers.

Fantasy: Kyle Orton will expose the Ravens' secondary. Great job by the Ravens as the defense took away Orton's time to throw deep by sending pressure and keeping their cornerbacks close to the Broncos' receivers. And it's a bad time for the Broncos to get exposed like this -- the Steelers come to Denver well rested in Week 9. It's going to be hard to trust Orton in that matchup, especially if he plays without right tackle Ryan Harris.

Reality: The Titans secondary got healthy and improved in the process. We weren't sure if cornerback Cortland Finnegan would play for Tennessee, nor were we sure he'd be an asset for them. But the play of Finnegan and DB Vincent Fuller, both coming back from injury, along with journeyman Rod Hood all contributed to David Garrard's struggles on Sunday. Worse yet, Mike Sims-Walker went from hero to zero after his two-catch, three-target day. Don't hesitate to start him next week vs. the Chiefs, though.

Fantasy: Donovan McNabb won't shine against the Giants. McNabb seems to go through these inexplicable stretches where he's woefully inconsistent. Last year it happened at about the exact same time as this year when his stats mostly sunk over a five-game stretch before perking up in November. But in 2007 he kicked tail in four October games before a stinker in his fifth, two games before getting hurt for the season. The key in this matchup was that he simply was on target when he took his downfield shots. Having two possessions inside of 2:00 in the first half didn't hurt things, either.

Reality: Peyton Manning: Zero touchdowns. Matt Schaub: Zero touchdowns. Jay Cutler: Zero touchdowns. Rams kicker Josh Brown: One touchdown. Joseph Addai: One touchdown pass. Some things just cannot be explained.

Strategy Session

I have major Texans issues -- Owen Daniels is out for the season and Steve Slaton is in the dog house. Help?!

Let's start with Daniels as his situation is more concrete. He has reportedly torn a ligament in his knee, an injury that requires season-ending surgery. And just like that, the No. 1 tight end in standard-scoring leagues entering Week 8 is worthless.

And as I mentioned earlier, Daniels took up 20 percent of the Texans offense: 21 percent of Matt Schaub's completions went to Daniels and just over 20 percent of Schaub's yards were made up by Daniels. Those stats will be tough to replace in Houston, but Joel Dreessen will be the first to get a chance. Dreessen has five catches for 52 yards this season and the four-year veteran has a career 9.0 yards per catch average. It's not a stretch to suggest that he's not the best possible replacement for Daniels in Fantasy leagues.

We're fortunate to be in a season where many tight ends are putting up good stats, so Daniels' Fantasy owners probably won't have to look past the waiver wire to find help. Dustin Keller was blackballed from many rosters before coming back to life against the Dolphins for 76 yards and a touchdown on eight catches. Consistency is obviously an issue for him but there's no doubt that he's an athletic pass-catching tight end -- he's even in the top 12 in targets at the position. Todd Heap, Zach Miller and Kevin Boss are also candidates to replace Daniels. One guy to target in trade: Jermichael Finley of the Packers (assuming he's not a free agent) -- his value is low because he's hurt and the Packers have a very good schedule down the stretch.

Now let's move to Slaton, who many Fantasy owners started in Week 8 with grand visions of ... oh, I don't know, say over 150 total yards and three touchdowns? The Texans rolled up the Bills' awful run defense, but it was Ryan Moats who came in after Slaton fumbled his first carry and never looked back.

Apparently Gary Kubiak doesn't play Fantasy Football. Or, he does and he has Moats on his team.

Moats is the kind of running back I typically drool over: Small, shifty, great acceleration, good enough hands. But he's injury prone. Think Brian Westbrook, which is pretty much dead-on accurate since that's what the Eagles thought when they drafted him out of Louisiana Tech in 2005. But they sent Moats to the curb after injuries kept him sidelined, and he latched on with the Texans late last season as a kickoff-return candidate before bursting on the scene on Sunday.

The Texans have two options after their Week 8 win: Lean on Moats exclusively or split his reps with Slaton. Moats sure looked great against the Bills, and he might even put up a big game against Indianapolis next week. But because of his injury-plagued past, my hunch is that Slaton will still earn a piece of the rushing workload so long as he doesn't cough up the football.

That hurts Fantasy owners more than it helps because if there is indeed a split, then both Moats and Slaton won't be any better than, say, low-end No. 2 Fantasy rushers. Throw in Chris Brown, who saw seven carries against Buffalo, as a potential touchdown vulture, and Houston's entire run game has become a muddled mess of New England-esque proportions.

As Jamey Eisenberg wrote on Sunday, trading Slaton isn't an option because you can't get anything for him. Cutting him seems harsh. Starting him seems too risky. Benching him is just about the only option you've got. That, and doing whatever you can to add Moats to your roster. If there's one thing favoring Slaton, it's that he's healthy and he's proven to be a good running back in the past. He just has to control his fumbling.

Ultimately, I have a bad feeling that the Texans' high-powered offense is in for some long Sunday afternoons.

Parting Shots

• Five interceptions later, Kurt Warner knows what it's like to be Jake Delhomme.

• Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew total more rushing yards (405) than Brandon Jacobs, Ray Rice, Joseph Addai, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Smith and Beanie Wells combined!

• The Panthers run defense might be allowing a touchdown on the ground per week since their bye, but they've allowed a total of 207 rush yards through that span (three games). They've improved there, but they'll get tested next week at New Orleans.

• The Rams won in spite of the dumbest safety since Dan Orlovsky accidentally ran out of the end zone. One reason why: Steven Jackson. He's had six games with 100 total yards or more in his last seven -- on a team with little to no other offensive weapons to help him.

• Welcome back to Earth, Sidney Rice.

• Calvin Johnson's knee must be seriously messed up.

• I'm not going to say it again, but if you've been keeping up with us and you have Matt Forte, you know what you have to do.

• Am I late to the Willis McGahee Fantasy value funeral? He's legitimately worth cutting. What a shocking decline.

• Green Bay fans: You got your first taste of what everyone else around the league has been eating for the last 17 years -- losing to Favre. How's it taste?

• Last week we had four 300-yard passers and eight 100-yard receivers. This week, one 300-yard passer and two 100-yard receivers. It was just that kind of week.

• If I were the Chiefs and Larry Johnson called out my head coach like he did, he wouldn't play for me again. Now I realize that the bigger offense was his use of a homosexual slur, but the disrespect he showed Todd Haley last week is unacceptable, especially if Haley plans on hanging around Kansas City for the next several years. With the season lost and the team turning to younger talent anyway, I'd deactivate Johnson each week for the rest of the season. I hope the Chiefs are thinking the same way, because if they're not, they're sending a pretty bad message to the rest of the roster.

Dave wishes he could be like 'Doubledown' from Swingers, but he's definitely cooler than Sue. He also wishes that Swingers references were current. At least he knows football -- drop him a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com and put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, follow Dave on Twitter at @daverichard. You're so money!

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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