Fantasy & Reality: The 40-year-old surgeon
If you're tired of reading about Brett Favre, I've got bad news for you.
Like him or not, Favre's pasting of the Packers in Week 8 is just the backdrop for what should be considered one heck of a comeback season. Not to get all John Madden on you, but Favre is playing incredible football these days, and a letdown doesn't seem to be on the horizon.
Through eight weeks, Favre is on pace for 32 touchdowns, six interceptions and 3,850 passing yards. Moreover, he's completed 68 percent of his passes, which would easily be a career-best for a single season if he was to keep it up. Favre has fit right in with what the Vikings are doing offensively and has developed an impressive receiving corps while playing behind a good offensive line handing off to one of the best running backs in the league today.
Throw in a good defense to give Favre some solid field position from time to time and a dream schedule, and you've got the makings of a great Fantasy quarterback. This is something we knew had the potential of happening before the season, but not with this much overwhelming proof.
Kudos to those of you who own Favre in your leagues. Whether he's your full-time starter, situational starter based on matchups or your De facto backup, you've secured a gem for the rest of '09.
But you also have some decisions to make.
Favre was started in 44 percent of CBSSports.com leagues in Week 8. Even in a year flooded with capable Fantasy quarterbacks, that seems low. The guy currently ranks fifth among passers in standard-scoring leagues (he might be sixth after Drew Brees gets through the Falcons on Monday) and has put up at least 20 Fantasy points (standard-scoring leagues) in four of his last six games. Every single Favre owner has to decide whether he's going to be a benefit for his or her Fantasy team, or a piece to trade for a valuable starter.
The best way to go about determining this is to see how he matches up with other quarterbacks in the league. Even with his big game in Week 8 and his previous outings, there are some quarterbacks you just can't start him over. Likewise, there are some quarterbacks who you might think you can't start him over, but should.
Decisively better than Favre: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers. No rocket science here as these guys are expected to put up big stats regardless of their opponent week in and week out. The same actually can't be said about Favre, who earlier this season leaned on Adrian Peterson to shoulder the load in three of the Vikings' wins and put up nominal stat totals in those games. Of course, the Vikings have leaned on Peterson just as much in other games while Favre puts up great numbers. Conclusion: If you own Favre and one of these quarterbacks, you should trade Favre.
Better than Favre, for now: Philip Rivers, Tony Romo. Based on how they've been playing, there's no reason to believe pulling these guys for Favre would be a wise move. Romo is red hot and while Rivers has been hot and cold, his schedule going forward should result in a lot of passing. Conclusion: If you own Favre and one of these quarterbacks, you should trade Favre.
As good as Favre: Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Matt Schaub. You might be surprised to see Schaub on this list. The only reason why he's even here and not on one of the other lists is because tight end Owen Daniels is lost for the season with a torn ACL. Daniels made up roughly 20 percent of the Texans' passing offense, and with him out Schaub will struggle to find the going so good. With two of his next three games against the Colts' star-studded secondary, he might start underperforming. As for Cutler and McNabb, they're more unsettling than anything else. If you punt on Favre and stick with McNabb or Cutler, you're leaving yourself open to one of their trademark games where they turn the ball over a bunch or can't connect for a ton of stats. We've seen games like those from both of them recently, and neither one has a great schedule to finish the season. Conclusion: If you own Favre and one of these quarterbacks, play the matchups unless you get a great offer for one of your quarterbacks.
Not as good as Favre: Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Kurt Warner. Don't even think twice about it -- these quarterbacks have their strengths but they're also prone to bad games. They are in no way locks to put up big numbers each week and are at best guys you might consider as quality backups for Favre. Conclusion: If you own Favre and one of these quarterbacks, either trade the other quarterback or keep him as a backup/situational starter.
Everyone else pales in comparison to Favre as far as Fantasy Football goes, and I doubt anyone would fight me on that.
Let me share one last reason to trade Favre right now: The Vikings are on a bye in Week 9. Very rarely can you trade a stud to a desperate Fantasy owner on his bye week, but Favre is an exception simply because the owner getting Favre might rationalize that he'll use him starting in Week 10 and plug in someone else until then.
And one more note: Favre's owners have two weeks to trade him -- his value isn't going anywhere between now and his next game (vs. Detroit) as part of a three-game homestand starting in Week 10.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: Frank Gore will struggle at Indianapolis. Remember in Swingers when Mikey lost $200 of his $300 bankroll on his first hand of blackjack, then Trent compliments him when he eventually cashes out for $120? "Nice, baby, you're up twenty bucks!" Trent said, "I mean, not counting what happened on the first table." That's how I feel about Gore after Week 8. Take away his 64-yard touchdown run and he had 70 total yards on 17 touches. Nothing special -- but that's not what counts in Fantasy Football, and now I feel like Mikey.
Reality: DeAngelo Williams will run on the Cardinals. I doubt Panthers offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson reads my stuff, but after bashing his playcalling last week I must say he got it right this week, leaning on his run game to crack the Cardinals. And see what Jake Delhomme can do when his run game is up to par? If they didn't have to play the Patriots, Vikings and Saints twice, I wouldn't write off the Panthers.
Fantasy: Kyle Orton will expose the Ravens' secondary. Great job by the Ravens as the defense took away Orton's time to throw deep by sending pressure and keeping their cornerbacks close to the Broncos' receivers. And it's a bad time for the Broncos to get exposed like this -- the Steelers come to Denver well rested in Week 9. It's going to be hard to trust Orton in that matchup, especially if he plays without right tackle Ryan Harris.
Reality: The Titans secondary got healthy and improved in the process. We weren't sure if cornerback Cortland Finnegan would play for Tennessee, nor were we sure he'd be an asset for them. But the play of Finnegan and DB Vincent Fuller, both coming back from injury, along with journeyman Rod Hood all contributed to David Garrard's struggles on Sunday. Worse yet, Mike Sims-Walker went from hero to zero after his two-catch, three-target day. Don't hesitate to start him next week vs. the Chiefs, though.
Fantasy: Donovan McNabb won't shine against the Giants. McNabb seems to go through these inexplicable stretches where he's woefully inconsistent. Last year it happened at about the exact same time as this year when his stats mostly sunk over a five-game stretch before perking up in November. But in 2007 he kicked tail in four October games before a stinker in his fifth, two games before getting hurt for the season. The key in this matchup was that he simply was on target when he took his downfield shots. Having two possessions inside of 2:00 in the first half didn't hurt things, either.
Reality: Peyton Manning: Zero touchdowns. Matt Schaub: Zero touchdowns. Jay Cutler: Zero touchdowns. Rams kicker Josh Brown: One touchdown. Joseph Addai: One touchdown pass. Some things just cannot be explained.
Strategy Session
I have major Texans issues -- Owen Daniels is out for the season and Steve Slaton is in the dog house. Help?!
Let's start with Daniels as his situation is more concrete. He has reportedly torn a ligament in his knee, an injury that requires season-ending surgery. And just like that, the No. 1 tight end in standard-scoring leagues entering Week 8 is worthless.
And as I mentioned earlier, Daniels took up 20 percent of the Texans offense: 21 percent of Matt Schaub's completions went to Daniels and just over 20 percent of Schaub's yards were made up by Daniels. Those stats will be tough to replace in Houston, but Joel Dreessen will be the first to get a chance. Dreessen has five catches for 52 yards this season and the four-year veteran has a career 9.0 yards per catch average. It's not a stretch to suggest that he's not the best possible replacement for Daniels in Fantasy leagues.
We're fortunate to be in a season where many tight ends are putting up good stats, so Daniels' Fantasy owners probably won't have to look past the waiver wire to find help. Dustin Keller was blackballed from many rosters before coming back to life against the Dolphins for 76 yards and a touchdown on eight catches. Consistency is obviously an issue for him but there's no doubt that he's an athletic pass-catching tight end -- he's even in the top 12 in targets at the position. Todd Heap, Zach Miller and Kevin Boss are also candidates to replace Daniels. One guy to target in trade: Jermichael Finley of the Packers (assuming he's not a free agent) -- his value is low because he's hurt and the Packers have a very good schedule down the stretch.
Now let's move to Slaton, who many Fantasy owners started in Week 8 with grand visions of ... oh, I don't know, say over 150 total yards and three touchdowns? The Texans rolled up the Bills' awful run defense, but it was Ryan Moats who came in after Slaton fumbled his first carry and never looked back.
Apparently Gary Kubiak doesn't play Fantasy Football. Or, he does and he has Moats on his team.
Moats is the kind of running back I typically drool over: Small, shifty, great acceleration, good enough hands. But he's injury prone. Think Brian Westbrook, which is pretty much dead-on accurate since that's what the Eagles thought when they drafted him out of Louisiana Tech in 2005. But they sent Moats to the curb after injuries kept him sidelined, and he latched on with the Texans late last season as a kickoff-return candidate before bursting on the scene on Sunday.
The Texans have two options after their Week 8 win: Lean on Moats exclusively or split his reps with Slaton. Moats sure looked great against the Bills, and he might even put up a big game against Indianapolis next week. But because of his injury-plagued past, my hunch is that Slaton will still earn a piece of the rushing workload so long as he doesn't cough up the football.
That hurts Fantasy owners more than it helps because if there is indeed a split, then both Moats and Slaton won't be any better than, say, low-end No. 2 Fantasy rushers. Throw in Chris Brown, who saw seven carries against Buffalo, as a potential touchdown vulture, and Houston's entire run game has become a muddled mess of New England-esque proportions.
As Jamey Eisenberg wrote on Sunday, trading Slaton isn't an option because you can't get anything for him. Cutting him seems harsh. Starting him seems too risky. Benching him is just about the only option you've got. That, and doing whatever you can to add Moats to your roster. If there's one thing favoring Slaton, it's that he's healthy and he's proven to be a good running back in the past. He just has to control his fumbling.
Ultimately, I have a bad feeling that the Texans' high-powered offense is in for some long Sunday afternoons.
Parting Shots
• Five interceptions later, Kurt Warner knows what it's like to be Jake Delhomme.
• Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew total more rushing yards (405) than Brandon Jacobs, Ray Rice, Joseph Addai, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Smith and Beanie Wells combined!
• The Panthers run defense might be allowing a touchdown on the ground per week since their bye, but they've allowed a total of 207 rush yards through that span (three games). They've improved there, but they'll get tested next week at New Orleans.
• The Rams won in spite of the dumbest safety since Dan Orlovsky accidentally ran out of the end zone. One reason why: Steven Jackson. He's had six games with 100 total yards or more in his last seven -- on a team with little to no other offensive weapons to help him.
• Welcome back to Earth, Sidney Rice.
• Calvin Johnson's knee must be seriously messed up.
• I'm not going to say it again, but if you've been keeping up with us and you have Matt Forte, you know what you have to do.
• Am I late to the Willis McGahee Fantasy value funeral? He's legitimately worth cutting. What a shocking decline.
• Green Bay fans: You got your first taste of what everyone else around the league has been eating for the last 17 years -- losing to Favre. How's it taste?
• Last week we had four 300-yard passers and eight 100-yard receivers. This week, one 300-yard passer and two 100-yard receivers. It was just that kind of week.
• If I were the Chiefs and Larry Johnson called out my head coach like he did, he wouldn't play for me again. Now I realize that the bigger offense was his use of a homosexual slur, but the disrespect he showed Todd Haley last week is unacceptable, especially if Haley plans on hanging around Kansas City for the next several years. With the season lost and the team turning to younger talent anyway, I'd deactivate Johnson each week for the rest of the season. I hope the Chiefs are thinking the same way, because if they're not, they're sending a pretty bad message to the rest of the roster.
Dave wishes he could be like 'Doubledown' from Swingers, but he's definitely cooler than Sue. He also wishes that Swingers references were current. At least he knows football -- drop him a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com and put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, follow Dave on Twitter at @daverichard. You're so money!
