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Scott White

Tricks of the Trade: Grin and Bear it?

By | Fantasy Writer


It doesn't look good for Matt Forte.

In the weeks ahead, he plays Arizona, which ranks seventh in run defense, San Francisco, which ranks second, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Baltimore and Minnesota -- twice. His only easy matchups come against St. Louis in Week 13 and at Detroit in Week 17, when most Fantasy leagues have stopped playing. Considering his only touchdowns (not to mention 70-yard games) have come against cupcakes Detroit and Cleveland, he has a rocky road ahead.

And potentially a toothache.

The problem is everyone knows it. It's the most publicized schedule since the Gregorian calendar. As such, Forte has become almost radioactive in Fantasy leagues, with some of his owners struggling just to give him away.

Talk about self-defeating.

In case we've forgotten, the rationale for trading Forte goes something like this: He's a good running back and should therefore fetch the return of a good running back even though his upcoming schedule might preclude him from performing like a good running back. If you focus on the third point without considering the first two, you have a good idea gone bad.

Trade No. 1: Because it's your forte, not your Forte
Team A gets: Matt Forte, Hines Ward and LeSean McCoy
Team B gets: Calvin Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall and Beanie Wells

So how do you get value for radioactive material? First, you have to find someone who recognizes all three points of the rationale for trading Forte (easier said than done). Then, if he still feels uneasy about him, you have to get sneaky. The owner of Team B did.

Fantasy Football - Tricks of the Trade: Grin and Bear it? : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

He targeted two potentially high-end players who have their own concerns. Johnson continues to sit with a knee injury, frustrating his owners, and Mendenhall has the constant threat of Willie Parker, not to mention the Steelers' newfound emphasis on throwing the ball. But Johnson came close to playing last week and could return this week, and Mendenhall has 42 carries over the last three games while Parker and Mewelde Moore have a combined 19. Plus, look at the Steelers' schedule. Mendenhall faces Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland in three of his next six games. He's like the anti-Forte, only without all the publicity.

So with this trade, Team B improved at two positions, assuming Johnson comes back within the next two weeks. Nothing against Ward, but he doesn't have near the upside of Johnson, especially with Santonio Holmes lining up on the opposite side of the field.

If you can't get this kind of value for Forte, you might as well hold on to him and hope he surprises in two or three of those tough matchups (as the law of averages, not to mention his level of talent, suggests).

Winner: Team B for getting full value for Forte instead of taking the first offer to come its way.

Trade No. 2: The whole nine yards
Team A gets: Mike Sims-Walker
Team B gets: Ahmad Bradshaw

Two short weeks ago, Sims-Walker could do no wrong.

Since emerging as a starter in Week 2, he had averaged 99.5 receiving yards in four games, scoring three touchdowns. He looked as consistent as any wide receiver in Fantasy and had emerged as the clear go-to guy in Jacksonville.

And then everyone realized he played for Jacksonville.

It took a 9-yard effort at Tennessee in Week 8 to open people's eyes to the reality of the situation. He plays for a 3-4 team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in passing and catches passes from a highly suspect David Garrard, who has only five passing touchdowns all season. How much good could he possibly do?

You could have asked that question all along, though. Personally, I don't see how anything has changed from one week to the next. The quarterback hasn't. The scheme hasn't. Sims-Walker's role hasn't. His health hasn't.

Hines Ward had a 3-yard game a couple weeks ago. Would you give up on him? Did you give up on Greg Jennings when he went without a catch in Week 2? What about DeSean Jackson when he had just a 1-yard catch in Week 5?

Quite simply, it happens, even to good receivers. One game isn't enough to hit the panic button on Sims-Walker, especially since he still offered as much consistency as you could ask from any wide receiver leading up to it. Unless the Jaguars abandon the passing game entirely, you know they'll want to get the ball to him.

I still see him as a No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver who sometimes performs like a No. 1, so if you can find an owner skeptical enough to trade him for a bench option like Bradshaw, whose role has declined in recent weeks, you should do your best to capitalize.

Winner: Team A for recognizing the short leash on Sims-Walker and taking advantage of it.

Trade No. 3: No clean slate on Slaton
Team A gets: Steve Slaton and Calvin Johnson
Team B gets: Brett Favre and Joseph Addai

In case you missed it, Slaton lost his job Sunday ... and then gained it back Monday ... sort of.

Texans coach Gary Kubiak said he wants to use a three-man backfield going forward, which on the one hand gives Slaton an opportunity to redeem himself, but on the other hand makes you wonder if he just got Wally Pipped by Ryan Moats, who ran for 126 yards and three touchdowns in his place Sunday.

That uncertainty drives down Slaton's value in Fantasy and makes some of his most steadfast supporters just a few weeks ago desperate to sell him now.

How desperate? Well, many of the trades made in CBSSports.com Fantasy leagues made sense, given the level of risk. Slaton for Brandon Jacobs, for instance, gives Slaton's owner an improved sense of security without undermining Slaton's value. But sometimes in that search for security, the matter of upside goes out the window, doing irrevocable damage to a team's bottom line.

In this trade, Addai won't replace Slaton. He can't. He's averaging 3.3 yards per carry a year after averaging 3.5. He has yet to rush for more than 64 yards in a game even though he has 20 carries in each of his last two, including one at St. Louis. He doesn't have the confidence of his coaching staff, having to split carries with Donald Brown as soon as the rookie returns from a shoulder injury. Quite simply, he's not that good. Even in a platoon, Slaton might offer better production.

And let's not forget that platoon is no sure thing.

I like the trade already for Team A. The exchange of Favre for Johnson only makes it better. Don't get me wrong: I like Favre. If you need a No. 1 quarterback, he's a prime candidate to target, but only because you can get him for cheap since the guy who has him no doubt drafted him as a reserve.

Giving up a No. 1 wide receiver for him isn't my idea of cheap. And make no mistake: When Johnson returns from his knee injury, he'll play like a No. 1 wide receiver.

Winner: Team A for capitalizing on widespread paranoia by potentially upgrading at two positions.

Trade No. 4: Wait, you mean you still haven't released Owens?
Team A gets:
Peyton Manning and Terrell Owens
Team B gets:
Ben Roethlisberger and Randy Moss

This one doesn't come naturally for me. In fact, it goes against every guideline I set.

Manning is the best player in the deal, and he's as consistent as you'll find at the quarterback position. You can start him every week, regardless of matchup, and know he'll deliver big numbers. Few players of that caliber exist in Fantasy, so when you find one, you never want to trade him.

But in this case, Moss makes it worth it.

He's one of the top wide receivers in Fantasy, with all the potential to finish as the No. 1 overall, and in this deal, he's practically a throw-in.

I'm serious. Team B got him for next to nothing.

The owner of Team A must assume Owens still has something to offer in Fantasy. That's his only justification for this deal -- that or a staggering amount of depth at the wide receiver position. You and I know better. Eight games into the season, at age 35 and with a team desperate to make the most of him, he has yet to exceed five catches, 60 yards or one touchdown. Someone recently cut him in one of my leagues, and nobody else claimed him, including myself.

Owens has zero value except to the nostalgic. Clearly, the owner Team B found somebody nostalgic.

Sure, he took a step back at quarterback, but Roethlisberger has emerged as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in his own right. He isn't as consistent as Manning, and I have my doubts the Steelers will lean so heavily on the passing game all season, but again, Moss makes it worth it.

Winner: Team B for figuring out a way to get something for Owens.

Trade No. 5: Getting tight at tight end
Team A gets: Vernon Davis
Team B gets: Brandon Jacobs and Donald Driver

One owner in every Fantasy league across the country thought he had the best tight end in Owen Daniels. Then, he lost him to a torn ACL on Sunday.

Most likely, he doesn't know what to do now. His whole world has come crashing down on him. He relied on that advantage at the tight end position to help him win every week, and in the blink of an eye, it was gone. He went from having the best starting tight end to potentially the worst, and in the realization of everything he lost, he might come crawling to you for help.

So why not offer him the No. 2 tight end?

Most likely, your answer goes something like this: "Uh, because I need him." It's a fair response and certainly a logical one, but I counter with this argument: Do you really?

Davis went undrafted in 54 percent of leagues, so when you claimed him off waivers, chances are you already had a tight end you liked better -- a Jason Witten, an Antonio Gates or someone else you actually drafted.

In time, maybe you learned to start Davis instead of that other guy not because the other guy did anything wrong, but because the best is the best. And Davis technically is the best with Daniels out of the way, scoring his seventh touchdown Sunday to move him five points ahead of Dallas Clark.

But you know what? He probably won't finish as the best or even the second best, not with all the other big names lingering at the position. His statistical breakdown doesn't support it.

Call it bias or even superstition, but I have a hard time trusting players with uneven performances. Davis' couldn't get any less consistent. His seven touchdowns have come in four games, and only three times has he topped 50 yards -- and that's counting a 51-yard effort in Week 5.

Anyone who disappears that often has the potential to disappear for weeks at a time, if not for good. And I get the feeling his pace will only slow down from here. Unless you see him finishing with 16 touchdowns, it has to.

I'm not saying Davis isn't a worthwhile starter in Fantasy, but if you have a second tight end, he's probably the one to deal when a former Daniels or Chris Cooley owner comes knocking at your door. You don't have to deal anybody, of course, but if somebody offers you a player who can actually help your starting lineup, like a Brandon Jacobs, you want to.

Winner: Team B for exploiting someone else's sudden need at a position of weakness.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Tricks of the Trade in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll get to as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Richard Seymour
Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
11:38 AM
News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.
Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

 
 
 
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