It doesn't look good for Matt Forte.
In the weeks ahead, he plays Arizona, which ranks seventh in run defense, San Francisco, which ranks second, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Baltimore and Minnesota -- twice. His only easy matchups come against St. Louis in Week 13 and at Detroit in Week 17, when most Fantasy leagues have stopped playing. Considering his only touchdowns (not to mention 70-yard games) have come against cupcakes Detroit and Cleveland, he has a rocky road ahead.
And potentially a toothache.
The problem is everyone knows it. It's the most publicized schedule since the Gregorian calendar. As such, Forte has become almost radioactive in Fantasy leagues, with some of his owners struggling just to give him away.
Talk about self-defeating.
In case we've forgotten, the rationale for trading Forte goes something like this: He's a good running back and should therefore fetch the return of a good running back even though his upcoming schedule might preclude him from performing like a good running back. If you focus on the third point without considering the first two, you have a good idea gone bad.
Trade No. 1: Because it's your forte, not your Forte
Team A gets: Matt Forte, Hines Ward and LeSean McCoy
Team B gets: Calvin Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall and Beanie Wells
So how do you get value for radioactive material? First, you have to find someone who recognizes all three points of the rationale for trading Forte (easier said than done). Then, if he still feels uneasy about him, you have to get sneaky. The owner of Team B did.
He targeted two potentially high-end players who have their own concerns. Johnson continues to sit with a knee injury, frustrating his owners, and Mendenhall has the constant threat of Willie Parker, not to mention the Steelers' newfound emphasis on throwing the ball. But Johnson came close to playing last week and could return this week, and Mendenhall has 42 carries over the last three games while Parker and Mewelde Moore have a combined 19. Plus, look at the Steelers' schedule. Mendenhall faces Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland in three of his next six games. He's like the anti-Forte, only without all the publicity.
So with this trade, Team B improved at two positions, assuming Johnson comes back within the next two weeks. Nothing against Ward, but he doesn't have near the upside of Johnson, especially with Santonio Holmes lining up on the opposite side of the field.
If you can't get this kind of value for Forte, you might as well hold on to him and hope he surprises in two or three of those tough matchups (as the law of averages, not to mention his level of talent, suggests).
Winner: Team B for getting full value for Forte instead of taking the first offer to come its way.
Trade No. 2: The whole nine yards
Team A gets: Mike Sims-Walker
Team B gets: Ahmad Bradshaw
Two short weeks ago, Sims-Walker could do no wrong.
Since emerging as a starter in Week 2, he had averaged 99.5 receiving yards in four games, scoring three touchdowns. He looked as consistent as any wide receiver in Fantasy and had emerged as the clear go-to guy in Jacksonville.
And then everyone realized he played for Jacksonville.
It took a 9-yard effort at Tennessee in Week 8 to open people's eyes to the reality of the situation. He plays for a 3-4 team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in passing and catches passes from a highly suspect David Garrard, who has only five passing touchdowns all season. How much good could he possibly do?
You could have asked that question all along, though. Personally, I don't see how anything has changed from one week to the next. The quarterback hasn't. The scheme hasn't. Sims-Walker's role hasn't. His health hasn't.
Hines Ward had a 3-yard game a couple weeks ago. Would you give up on him? Did you give up on Greg Jennings when he went without a catch in Week 2? What about DeSean Jackson when he had just a 1-yard catch in Week 5?
Quite simply, it happens, even to good receivers. One game isn't enough to hit the panic button on Sims-Walker, especially since he still offered as much consistency as you could ask from any wide receiver leading up to it. Unless the Jaguars abandon the passing game entirely, you know they'll want to get the ball to him.
I still see him as a No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver who sometimes performs like a No. 1, so if you can find an owner skeptical enough to trade him for a bench option like Bradshaw, whose role has declined in recent weeks, you should do your best to capitalize.
Winner: Team A for recognizing the short leash on Sims-Walker and taking advantage of it.
Trade No. 3: No clean slate on Slaton
Team A gets: Steve Slaton and Calvin Johnson
Team B gets: Brett Favre and Joseph Addai
In case you missed it, Slaton lost his job Sunday ... and then gained it back Monday ... sort of.
Texans coach Gary Kubiak said he wants to use a three-man backfield going forward, which on the one hand gives Slaton an opportunity to redeem himself, but on the other hand makes you wonder if he just got Wally Pipped by Ryan Moats, who ran for 126 yards and three touchdowns in his place Sunday.
That uncertainty drives down Slaton's value in Fantasy and makes some of his most steadfast supporters just a few weeks ago desperate to sell him now.
How desperate? Well, many of the trades made in CBSSports.com Fantasy leagues made sense, given the level of risk. Slaton for Brandon Jacobs, for instance, gives Slaton's owner an improved sense of security without undermining Slaton's value. But sometimes in that search for security, the matter of upside goes out the window, doing irrevocable damage to a team's bottom line.
In this trade, Addai won't replace Slaton. He can't. He's averaging 3.3 yards per carry a year after averaging 3.5. He has yet to rush for more than 64 yards in a game even though he has 20 carries in each of his last two, including one at St. Louis. He doesn't have the confidence of his coaching staff, having to split carries with Donald Brown as soon as the rookie returns from a shoulder injury. Quite simply, he's not that good. Even in a platoon, Slaton might offer better production.
And let's not forget that platoon is no sure thing.
I like the trade already for Team A. The exchange of Favre for Johnson only makes it better. Don't get me wrong: I like Favre. If you need a No. 1 quarterback, he's a prime candidate to target, but only because you can get him for cheap since the guy who has him no doubt drafted him as a reserve.
Giving up a No. 1 wide receiver for him isn't my idea of cheap. And make no mistake: When Johnson returns from his knee injury, he'll play like a No. 1 wide receiver.
Winner: Team A for capitalizing on widespread paranoia by potentially upgrading at two positions.
Trade No. 4: Wait, you mean you still haven't released Owens?
Team A gets: Peyton Manning and Terrell Owens
Team B gets: Ben Roethlisberger and Randy Moss
This one doesn't come naturally for me. In fact, it goes against every guideline I set.
Manning is the best player in the deal, and he's as consistent as you'll find at the quarterback position. You can start him every week, regardless of matchup, and know he'll deliver big numbers. Few players of that caliber exist in Fantasy, so when you find one, you never want to trade him.
But in this case, Moss makes it worth it.
He's one of the top wide receivers in Fantasy, with all the potential to finish as the No. 1 overall, and in this deal, he's practically a throw-in.
I'm serious. Team B got him for next to nothing.
The owner of Team A must assume Owens still has something to offer in Fantasy. That's his only justification for this deal -- that or a staggering amount of depth at the wide receiver position. You and I know better. Eight games into the season, at age 35 and with a team desperate to make the most of him, he has yet to exceed five catches, 60 yards or one touchdown. Someone recently cut him in one of my leagues, and nobody else claimed him, including myself.
Owens has zero value except to the nostalgic. Clearly, the owner Team B found somebody nostalgic.
Sure, he took a step back at quarterback, but Roethlisberger has emerged as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in his own right. He isn't as consistent as Manning, and I have my doubts the Steelers will lean so heavily on the passing game all season, but again, Moss makes it worth it.
Winner: Team B for figuring out a way to get something for Owens.
Trade No. 5: Getting tight at tight end
Team A gets: Vernon Davis
Team B gets: Brandon Jacobs and Donald Driver
One owner in every Fantasy league across the country thought he had the best tight end in Owen Daniels. Then, he lost him to a torn ACL on Sunday.
Most likely, he doesn't know what to do now. His whole world has come crashing down on him. He relied on that advantage at the tight end position to help him win every week, and in the blink of an eye, it was gone. He went from having the best starting tight end to potentially the worst, and in the realization of everything he lost, he might come crawling to you for help.
So why not offer him the No. 2 tight end?
Most likely, your answer goes something like this: "Uh, because I need him." It's a fair response and certainly a logical one, but I counter with this argument: Do you really?
Davis went undrafted in 54 percent of leagues, so when you claimed him off waivers, chances are you already had a tight end you liked better -- a Jason Witten, an Antonio Gates or someone else you actually drafted.
In time, maybe you learned to start Davis instead of that other guy not because the other guy did anything wrong, but because the best is the best. And Davis technically is the best with Daniels out of the way, scoring his seventh touchdown Sunday to move him five points ahead of Dallas Clark.
But you know what? He probably won't finish as the best or even the second best, not with all the other big names lingering at the position. His statistical breakdown doesn't support it.
Call it bias or even superstition, but I have a hard time trusting players with uneven performances. Davis' couldn't get any less consistent. His seven touchdowns have come in four games, and only three times has he topped 50 yards -- and that's counting a 51-yard effort in Week 5.
Anyone who disappears that often has the potential to disappear for weeks at a time, if not for good. And I get the feeling his pace will only slow down from here. Unless you see him finishing with 16 touchdowns, it has to.
I'm not saying Davis isn't a worthwhile starter in Fantasy, but if you have a second tight end, he's probably the one to deal when a former Daniels or Chris Cooley owner comes knocking at your door. You don't have to deal anybody, of course, but if somebody offers you a player who can actually help your starting lineup, like a Brandon Jacobs, you want to.
Winner: Team B for exploiting someone else's sudden need at a position of weakness.
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