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Dave Richard

Fantasy & Reality: Bye-bye to your depth

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Week 9 is in the books for everyone except the Broncos and Steelers, which means we're a week closer to the Fantasy playoffs. It also means we're a week closer to shedding the byes -- only two teams are on bye in Week 10 (Houston, N.Y. Giants) and from there everyone's playing every weekend (or Thursday).

It also means we're a week closer to trade deadlines. Which means now is the time to take players on your roster that you might not start because bye weeks are wrapping up and ship them out for help.

True, depth is a key element to success in Fantasy Football, but liquidating that depth to better your starting lineup might be more important. It all depends on how many wins you have and how many you think you'll need to make the playoffs. Obviously, the more wins you have, the less pressure you might feel to make a move.

Fantasy Football - Fantasy & Reality: Bye-bye to your depth : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

But the point is that with everyone playing in two weeks -- and 30 of 32 teams taking the field in Week 10 -- the value of certain "startable" players since the bye weeks kicked in is dropping like a pass to a Browns receiver. Which players? I'm glad you asked.

These players are worth putting on the block before your league's deadline, and before the byes disappear:

Quarterbacks who are top quality backups: Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith
When it comes to No. 1 Fantasy quarterbacks, it's a numbers game. In the case of Flacco, who has been a great sleeper, his schedule after Week 10 gets rough to the point where you won't want to rely on him to be your primary starter. Hasselbeck and the Seahawks have a three-game road trip beginning in Week 10 that isn't exactly a cake walk, plus his offensive line might be past the point of no return in terms of it being a strength. Ryan has the double whammy: A tough schedule to close out the season and a lack of consistent production, which includes nine interceptions in his last four games.

Running backs who are No. 3 options or worse: Ahmad Bradshaw, Matt Forte, Julius Jones, Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Moats /Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson
Some of the names here aren't exactly surprises -- Jones, Lynch, Smith and the Texans power couple are about as useful as a swimsuit in Antarctica. But others might seem startling. Forte has a difficult schedule to go along with fewer touches and a worse offensive line that he had a season ago. Tomlinson suffers from that same issue too, though his schedule isn't nearly as bad. But he just hasn't been strong against opponents not named the Raiders. Would you believe that in a standard-scoring league he doesn't even rank as a Top 30 rusher?

(Note: Rashard Mendenhall was previously listed here before his Week 9 game, but after a strong effort and a reconsideration of his schedule, we decided he's a No. 2 Fantasy RB after all.)

Wide receivers who are No. 3 options or worse: Dwayne Bowe, Steve Breaston, Greg Jennings, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith (Panthers), Nate Washington, Roy E. Williams
Again, not many earth-shattering names here, but players with some value and name recognition. Getting what you can for them might go a long way in helping you pad depth for your roster. The highlights on the list are Breaston, who tends to play at his best when Anquan Boldin is pacing the sideline; Jennings, who has a good schedule but has to be playing hurt or something because he's nowhere near as productive as he has been in the past; and Smith, who doesn't have the worst schedule but might have one of the worst quarterbacks and least friendly pass offenses in the league.

Tight ends who are top backups: Kevin Boss, Todd Heap, Jason Witten
What can I tell you about Jason Witten? He's being targeted by Tony Romo -- 56 times on the season and eight against the Eagles in Week 9 -- but he's just not delivering the yardage we've been accustomed to, or the touchdowns. Guess what? Witten is the new Heath Miller, albeit pre-2009 Heath Miller. He's a short-yardage outlet for Romo, but far from his top target. Only owners fighting without Chris Cooley or Owen Daniels would take Witten right now, but they'd probably give a little in trade for him. But the bottom line is that tight ends are limited commodities anyway -- one per team is pretty much all each league needs, and we're in a season full of productive tight ends.

Let me finish with one last thought: I'm not saying these guys are busts, trash or anything like that. It's simply that because everyone will be back to playing in the coming weeks, these players aren't slam-dunk starters. Granted, if you're in a 14-team league with deep rosters or something like that, then this probably is a better guide for value than it is anything else.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.

Fantasy: The Giants secondary is fixed. Bad news, Big Blue: Aaron Rouse isn't that big of an upgrade over C.C. Brown, and big receiving threats are still doing a number on your smallish secondary. Granted, the Giants' playcalling and decisions late in the game played a huge role in their loss to the Chargers -- you can never give Philip Rivers the ball down less than seven points with two minutes to play -- but their secondary remains a weak spot. The good news is that they won't face a dominant pass attack until the Cowboys in Week 13.

Reality: Chris Chambers isn't this good. Here's a quick run-down of Chris Chambers' week: Waived by the Chargers, claimed by the Chiefs, practices three days, gets his first catch unassumingly in the third quarter for 11 yards and then scores on a deep ball 54 yards out and again on a broken play from 5 yards out. Both times he shed Rashean Mathis, which is impressive, but it's hard to believe that he's going to go from dud in San Diego to stud in Kansas City overnight. Bench material? Sure, but don't get your hopes up -- he's got the Raiders and Steelers' pass defenses in the coming weeks.

Fantasy: Laurence Maroney isn't a big part of the Patriots plans. We weren't very high on Maroney in the preseason when he was returning kickoffs and working with the second-team offense, but he's done a fantastic job in place of injured vets Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris. He's averaging just over 5.0 yards per carry and has scored in each of his last three games. Granted, New England might point him to the bench as soon as he struggles or as soon as Taylor comes back, but for now he's as good as they come as far as No. 2 Fantasy running backs go.

Reality: Calvin Johnson is worth keeping. Johnson might not have seen passes go his way until the second half in Week 9, but he was still targeted nine times by Matthew Stafford, including twice on throws that were intercepted. Johnson did not look limited by his knee injury either, so I'd imagine that he'll be fine as he continues to play and get back into a rhythm with Stafford. The time to trade for him is right now.

Fantasy: The Packers will dominate Josh Freeman in his first NFL start. Make no mistake -- the Packers did more to lose this game than win it, but they were totally unprepared defensively. Freeman is no superstar, though he has the potential to be, but a three-touchdown effort in his first start against a decorated pair of Green Bay cornerbacks is mighty impressive. It's scary to think about what his encore might be like against the Dolphins' rookie corners next week.

Reality: Larry Johnson is not done. The Chiefs released Johnson Monday morning, which may or may not set off a chain reaction of events involving the NFL Players Association filing grievances on his behalf. But here's the sobering reality of the NFL: Public relations nightmare or not, Johnson is a healthy running back in game shape, rested as he's not been on a field in two weeks. Several teams won't pass him up if he makes himself available. Remember, in Kansas City he ran behind a terrible offensive line. And also remember that this is the league that had teams banging down Michael Vick's door after he got out of prison, so I'm sure some executives won't blink at Johnson's Twitter misadventures.

Strategy Session

Who is the more valuable Texans running back?

I charted the work of Ryan Moats and Steve Slaton against the Colts, figuring I'd get an idea of how the Texans used their backs. The results are alarming, astounding, eye-popping and unbelievable.

Actually they're none of those things, but I'm going to tell you what happened anyway.

The Texans ran 69 plays from scrimmage on Sunday, excluding penalized snaps. Here's the breakdown:

Ryan Moats Steve Slaton
Total snaps 30 39
First-down snaps 18 12
Second-down snaps 11 12
Third-down snaps 1 14
Fourth-down snaps 0 1
Goal-to-go snaps 5 2
Snaps inside 2:00 0 15
Total carries 16 6
Total receptions 3 3

Simply put, this is a classic case of a team using a "running downs" back and a "passing downs" back. It happens all over the NFL and it's a situation that offenses have operated under for years. For now, Moats is that "running downs" back, which is great for him so long as he doesn't fumble the ball into the end zone like he did against the Colts. Slaton retains work but only in passing situations, which will severely limit his touches (exhibit A: Week 9) even though it put him on the field more when the Texans went to the hurry-up offense.

Long story short, both guys are mediocre. Trading them won't get you much and cutting them only helps someone else. My hunch remains that Slaton will work his way back into the mix more and more each week -- and I say that as someone who was a big fan of Moats when he came out of college.

Parting shots

• Two undefeated teams win with more defense and luck than offensive firepower. Read more about it here.

• I was asked this morning which running back in Kansas City has the best value going forward now that Larry Johnson is gone. My response? "You're assuming any of them have value."

Week 10 will be interesting because the Chiefs will play at the Raiders, and Oakland's run defense is not good at all. Someone might emerge for them there. But as I've felt all along, Kansas City's offensive line is a big liability that will make it difficult for any Chiefs rusher to be effective consistently throughout a game. I'll say this: I just don't see Jamaal Charles ever being an every-down back in the NFL.

• Cincinnati is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage in its games on both sides of the ball, and it's making all of the difference. They're strong up front on offense and defense, and they have plenty of talent behind those lines. By that virtue alone, they're going to beat the Steelers in Week 10. In Pittsburgh.

• Cedric Benson: Ravens killer! Who would be so daring to sit this guy against the Steelers next week? Or ever again?!

• Kurt Warner goes from five interceptions to five touchdowns. In other news, approximately 21 percent of the people who own Warner in CBSSports.com Fantasy leagues are swearing off Fantasy forever. That's the percentage of people who benched him this week.

• Greg Olsen, whatever you slipped into Jay Cutler's pocket to bribe him to throw to you in the red zone worked. Keep it coming!

• The best part of the Chambers story? He said after the game that learning offenses is a cinch because they're all relatively the same. To each his own, Mr. Chambers.

• Dolphins rookie cornerback Vontae Davis was great on his interception over Randy Moss but was a goat for the rest of the game. Take a guess where opponents will throw the ball against Miami going forward?

• I think if I had to draft for the 2010 season right now, Chris Johnson would be my No. 2 overall pick behind Adrian Peterson. Not only is he such a high-potential rusher, but the Titans might end up with a cupcake schedule next season and LenDale White might not be back. Strong case, don't you think?

• I got a great reminder of why Fantasy Football is so great on Sunday. I was watching the tail end of the Lions-Seahawks game while also tracking my scores in two of my leagues. In one league I was down by two, in the other I was down by five. I had the Seahawks DST starting in both leagues and they had already picked off Stafford four times.

I said out loud, "It would really be wonderful if Stafford could throw a pick-six right here."

Minutes later, Stafford was picked off by Josh Wilson, who ran freely into the end zone to ice the Seahawks' win -- and help my teams overcome their small deficits to take the lead (for good in one league). An eight-point swing in two leagues, not to mention boost the value of the Seahawks DST, which I touted during the week for people who needed a quick pickup off waivers. It was a win-win all around for everyone except Stafford and the Lions.

Sometimes, you can't help but believe that there are Football gods. And that they listen.

Then again, if they existed and did listen, then how come they're not hearing the Lions?

Drop Dave a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com and put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, follow Dave on Twitter at @daverichard.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to." NFL Network reports that teams have already been calling his agent following the news.
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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