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Fantasy & Reality: Bye-bye to your depth

 
 
 
 

Week 9 is in the books for everyone except the Broncos and Steelers, which means we're a week closer to the Fantasy playoffs. It also means we're a week closer to shedding the byes -- only two teams are on bye in Week 10 (Houston, N.Y. Giants) and from there everyone's playing every weekend (or Thursday).

It also means we're a week closer to trade deadlines. Which means now is the time to take players on your roster that you might not start because bye weeks are wrapping up and ship them out for help.

True, depth is a key element to success in Fantasy Football, but liquidating that depth to better your starting lineup might be more important. It all depends on how many wins you have and how many you think you'll need to make the playoffs. Obviously, the more wins you have, the less pressure you might feel to make a move.

But the point is that with everyone playing in two weeks -- and 30 of 32 teams taking the field in Week 10 -- the value of certain "startable" players since the bye weeks kicked in is dropping like a pass to a Browns receiver. Which players? I'm glad you asked.

These players are worth putting on the block before your league's deadline, and before the byes disappear:

Quarterbacks who are top quality backups: Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith
When it comes to No. 1 Fantasy quarterbacks, it's a numbers game. In the case of Flacco, who has been a great sleeper, his schedule after Week 10 gets rough to the point where you won't want to rely on him to be your primary starter. Hasselbeck and the Seahawks have a three-game road trip beginning in Week 10 that isn't exactly a cake walk, plus his offensive line might be past the point of no return in terms of it being a strength. Ryan has the double whammy: A tough schedule to close out the season and a lack of consistent production, which includes nine interceptions in his last four games.

Running backs who are No. 3 options or worse: Ahmad Bradshaw, Matt Forte, Julius Jones, Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Moats /Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson
Some of the names here aren't exactly surprises -- Jones, Lynch, Smith and the Texans power couple are about as useful as a swimsuit in Antarctica. But others might seem startling. Forte has a difficult schedule to go along with fewer touches and a worse offensive line that he had a season ago. Tomlinson suffers from that same issue too, though his schedule isn't nearly as bad. But he just hasn't been strong against opponents not named the Raiders. Would you believe that in a standard-scoring league he doesn't even rank as a Top 30 rusher?

(Note: Rashard Mendenhall was previously listed here before his Week 9 game, but after a strong effort and a reconsideration of his schedule, we decided he's a No. 2 Fantasy RB after all.)

Wide receivers who are No. 3 options or worse: Dwayne Bowe, Steve Breaston, Greg Jennings, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith (Panthers), Nate Washington, Roy E. Williams
Again, not many earth-shattering names here, but players with some value and name recognition. Getting what you can for them might go a long way in helping you pad depth for your roster. The highlights on the list are Breaston, who tends to play at his best when Anquan Boldin is pacing the sideline; Jennings, who has a good schedule but has to be playing hurt or something because he's nowhere near as productive as he has been in the past; and Smith, who doesn't have the worst schedule but might have one of the worst quarterbacks and least friendly pass offenses in the league.

Tight ends who are top backups: Kevin Boss, Todd Heap, Jason Witten
What can I tell you about Jason Witten? He's being targeted by Tony Romo -- 56 times on the season and eight against the Eagles in Week 9 -- but he's just not delivering the yardage we've been accustomed to, or the touchdowns. Guess what? Witten is the new Heath Miller, albeit pre-2009 Heath Miller. He's a short-yardage outlet for Romo, but far from his top target. Only owners fighting without Chris Cooley or Owen Daniels would take Witten right now, but they'd probably give a little in trade for him. But the bottom line is that tight ends are limited commodities anyway -- one per team is pretty much all each league needs, and we're in a season full of productive tight ends.

Let me finish with one last thought: I'm not saying these guys are busts, trash or anything like that. It's simply that because everyone will be back to playing in the coming weeks, these players aren't slam-dunk starters. Granted, if you're in a 14-team league with deep rosters or something like that, then this probably is a better guide for value than it is anything else.

Fantasy & Reality

Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.

Fantasy: The Giants secondary is fixed. Bad news, Big Blue: Aaron Rouse isn't that big of an upgrade over C.C. Brown, and big receiving threats are still doing a number on your smallish secondary. Granted, the Giants' playcalling and decisions late in the game played a huge role in their loss to the Chargers -- you can never give Philip Rivers the ball down less than seven points with two minutes to play -- but their secondary remains a weak spot. The good news is that they won't face a dominant pass attack until the Cowboys in Week 13.

Reality: Chris Chambers isn't this good. Here's a quick run-down of Chris Chambers' week: Waived by the Chargers, claimed by the Chiefs, practices three days, gets his first catch unassumingly in the third quarter for 11 yards and then scores on a deep ball 54 yards out and again on a broken play from 5 yards out. Both times he shed Rashean Mathis, which is impressive, but it's hard to believe that he's going to go from dud in San Diego to stud in Kansas City overnight. Bench material? Sure, but don't get your hopes up -- he's got the Raiders and Steelers' pass defenses in the coming weeks.

Fantasy: Laurence Maroney isn't a big part of the Patriots plans. We weren't very high on Maroney in the preseason when he was returning kickoffs and working with the second-team offense, but he's done a fantastic job in place of injured vets Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris. He's averaging just over 5.0 yards per carry and has scored in each of his last three games. Granted, New England might point him to the bench as soon as he struggles or as soon as Taylor comes back, but for now he's as good as they come as far as No. 2 Fantasy running backs go.

Reality: Calvin Johnson is worth keeping. Johnson might not have seen passes go his way until the second half in Week 9, but he was still targeted nine times by Matthew Stafford, including twice on throws that were intercepted. Johnson did not look limited by his knee injury either, so I'd imagine that he'll be fine as he continues to play and get back into a rhythm with Stafford. The time to trade for him is right now.

Fantasy: The Packers will dominate Josh Freeman in his first NFL start. Make no mistake -- the Packers did more to lose this game than win it, but they were totally unprepared defensively. Freeman is no superstar, though he has the potential to be, but a three-touchdown effort in his first start against a decorated pair of Green Bay cornerbacks is mighty impressive. It's scary to think about what his encore might be like against the Dolphins' rookie corners next week.

Reality: Larry Johnson is not done. The Chiefs released Johnson Monday morning, which may or may not set off a chain reaction of events involving the NFL Players Association filing grievances on his behalf. But here's the sobering reality of the NFL: Public relations nightmare or not, Johnson is a healthy running back in game shape, rested as he's not been on a field in two weeks. Several teams won't pass him up if he makes himself available. Remember, in Kansas City he ran behind a terrible offensive line. And also remember that this is the league that had teams banging down Michael Vick's door after he got out of prison, so I'm sure some executives won't blink at Johnson's Twitter misadventures.

Strategy Session

Who is the more valuable Texans running back?

I charted the work of Ryan Moats and Steve Slaton against the Colts, figuring I'd get an idea of how the Texans used their backs. The results are alarming, astounding, eye-popping and unbelievable.

Actually they're none of those things, but I'm going to tell you what happened anyway.

The Texans ran 69 plays from scrimmage on Sunday, excluding penalized snaps. Here's the breakdown:

Ryan Moats Steve Slaton
Total snaps 30 39
First-down snaps 18 12
Second-down snaps 11 12
Third-down snaps 1 14
Fourth-down snaps 0 1
Goal-to-go snaps 5 2
Snaps inside 2:00 0 15
Total carries 16 6
Total receptions 3 3

Simply put, this is a classic case of a team using a "running downs" back and a "passing downs" back. It happens all over the NFL and it's a situation that offenses have operated under for years. For now, Moats is that "running downs" back, which is great for him so long as he doesn't fumble the ball into the end zone like he did against the Colts. Slaton retains work but only in passing situations, which will severely limit his touches (exhibit A: Week 9) even though it put him on the field more when the Texans went to the hurry-up offense.

Long story short, both guys are mediocre. Trading them won't get you much and cutting them only helps someone else. My hunch remains that Slaton will work his way back into the mix more and more each week -- and I say that as someone who was a big fan of Moats when he came out of college.

Parting shots

• Two undefeated teams win with more defense and luck than offensive firepower. Read more about it here.

• I was asked this morning which running back in Kansas City has the best value going forward now that Larry Johnson is gone. My response? "You're assuming any of them have value."

Week 10 will be interesting because the Chiefs will play at the Raiders, and Oakland's run defense is not good at all. Someone might emerge for them there. But as I've felt all along, Kansas City's offensive line is a big liability that will make it difficult for any Chiefs rusher to be effective consistently throughout a game. I'll say this: I just don't see Jamaal Charles ever being an every-down back in the NFL.

• Cincinnati is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage in its games on both sides of the ball, and it's making all of the difference. They're strong up front on offense and defense, and they have plenty of talent behind those lines. By that virtue alone, they're going to beat the Steelers in Week 10. In Pittsburgh.

• Cedric Benson: Ravens killer! Who would be so daring to sit this guy against the Steelers next week? Or ever again?!

• Kurt Warner goes from five interceptions to five touchdowns. In other news, approximately 21 percent of the people who own Warner in CBSSports.com Fantasy leagues are swearing off Fantasy forever. That's the percentage of people who benched him this week.

• Greg Olsen, whatever you slipped into Jay Cutler's pocket to bribe him to throw to you in the red zone worked. Keep it coming!

• The best part of the Chambers story? He said after the game that learning offenses is a cinch because they're all relatively the same. To each his own, Mr. Chambers.

• Dolphins rookie cornerback Vontae Davis was great on his interception over Randy Moss but was a goat for the rest of the game. Take a guess where opponents will throw the ball against Miami going forward?

• I think if I had to draft for the 2010 season right now, Chris Johnson would be my No. 2 overall pick behind Adrian Peterson. Not only is he such a high-potential rusher, but the Titans might end up with a cupcake schedule next season and LenDale White might not be back. Strong case, don't you think?

• I got a great reminder of why Fantasy Football is so great on Sunday. I was watching the tail end of the Lions-Seahawks game while also tracking my scores in two of my leagues. In one league I was down by two, in the other I was down by five. I had the Seahawks DST starting in both leagues and they had already picked off Stafford four times.

I said out loud, "It would really be wonderful if Stafford could throw a pick-six right here."

Minutes later, Stafford was picked off by Josh Wilson, who ran freely into the end zone to ice the Seahawks' win -- and help my teams overcome their small deficits to take the lead (for good in one league). An eight-point swing in two leagues, not to mention boost the value of the Seahawks DST, which I touted during the week for people who needed a quick pickup off waivers. It was a win-win all around for everyone except Stafford and the Lions.

Sometimes, you can't help but believe that there are Football gods. And that they listen.

Then again, if they existed and did listen, then how come they're not hearing the Lions?

Drop Dave a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com and put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, follow Dave on Twitter at @daverichard.

 
Talk Back
Reputation:95
Level:Superstar
Since:Apr 21, 2008

November 10, 2009 12:40 am
Hey Dave, still not a believer in Rashard Mendenhall after tonight?
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Dec 13, 2007

November 10, 2009 6:47 am
(POLL) Which elite RB would you rather have on your roster for the rest of the year? Who is the better RB? Obviously Adrian Peterson is on the better team. ...(more)
 
 
 
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