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Dave Richard

Faceoffs: Keep Johnson just in case?

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


Editor's note: Each week Senior Fantasy Writers Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg will debate the value of a handful of key Fantasy players heading into a certain week. They not only state their case below, but they also provide owners with some alternatives.

Should owners hang on to Larry Johnson?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard On the same day the Chiefs released Larry Johnson, NFL GMs and coaches began evaluating whether or not they wanted Johnson on their rosters -- the same way Fantasy owners evaluated whether or not they wanted him on their rosters. Enough teams are rumored to be interested in him that it's nearly a foregone conclusion that his career will continue. Sure, he won't be an every-down back like he was in Kansas City, but he should wind up playing a serviceable role for a playoff contender with a better O-line than the Chiefs had. He was posting stats akin to a No. 3 Fantasy running back anyway, now he'll be doing it with another team -- more than likely with the chance to score touchdowns because of his big frame and physical style. There's no question he belongs on a Fantasy roster at this point because of his potential. I promise you that if you cut him, someone else in your league will pick him up -- and reap the benefits. Jamey Eisenberg Johnson is finished as a quality Fantasy running back. Sure, some team will give him a chance after he was released by the Chiefs, but he'll be part of a rotation or a reserve in case someone gets hurt. He wasn't a good Fantasy option this year when he was the starter with no touchdowns and no 100-yard games. Drop him before you finish this sentence. Then go back and pick up someone who has value -- Bernard Scott in case Cedric Benson gets hurt or Rashad Jennings in case something happens to Maurice Jones-Drew. Here are some other running backs owned in 25 percent of leagues or less I'd rather have: Justin Forsett (25 percent), Kevin Faulk (22 percent), Mewelde Moore (18 percent) and Kolby Smith (5 percent). That doesn't include the obvious free agents available like Ladell Betts. Johnson is done, and I'm going on Twitter now to tell him how I feel. Well, given his experience with Twitter, maybe that's not such a good idea.
Start Brett Favre vs. Detroit?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard Favre's body just enjoyed a week of rest, and now that the Vikings are so close to winning their division and going to the playoffs, the coaches will continue to take precautions to make sure their 40-year-old quarterback doesn't break down. Check out Favre's stats in games against the Browns, Rams and Lions earlier this year -- opponents that didn't force the Vikings to throw. He did a minimal amount of work because he didn't have to, and the team will probably take that same attitude against the hapless and defensively challenged Lions this week. By the way, some of Adrian Peterson's best games of the season came when Favre didn't do much. That should continue here.
I'd rather start: Jay Cutler (at SF), Donovan McNabb (at SD) and Joe Flacco (at CLE)
Jamey Eisenberg I agree with Dave that Minnesota will run all over Detroit. But I can also see Favre doing exactly what he did against the Lions in their first meeting in Week 2 when he had 155 passing yards and two touchdowns, which is 18 Fantasy points in a standard-scoring league and good enough to make him a No. 1 option. The Lions have allowed six quarterbacks to pass for multiple touchdowns against them this year, and four quarterbacks have passed for 300 yards against Detroit. How is Favre going to struggle? I just don't see it, so I'll gladly start Favre in this matchup at home, where he has eight touchdowns and one interception in three games.
I'd start him over: Matt Hasselbeck (at ARI), Donovan McNabb (at SD) and Jay Cutler (at SF)
Start LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Philadelphia?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard I see some positives that make LaDainian Tomlinson a good enough No. 2 Fantasy option. Tomlinson's best work has come in two games at home while some of the Eagles' struggles have come in California (remember their mind-baffling loss to the Raiders?). The Eagles have allowed a rushing touchdown in two of their last three games and might be willing to play exclusively in nickel and dime coverage to limit the productivity of Philip Rivers and take their lumps with Tomlinson. Sounds crazy, but the Chargers' passing game has been incredibly strong and the Eagles would be wise to not let Rivers control the game like he did last week against the Giants. Plus, Tomlinson will still see a good amount of work, which can't be said for a lot of other possible alternatives.
I'd start him over: Marshawn Lynch (at TEN), Shonn Greene (vs. JAC) and Cadillac Williams (at MIA)
Jamey Eisenberg I give up. He's done. You can't trust him against a good defense, and the Eagles have done well in stopping the run. They haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season, and only one running back has been able to gain 100 total yards (Brandon Jacobs in Week 8). Tomlinson only has one game with 100 total yards this year, and he has scored three touchdowns -- all against Oakland. You can use Tomlinson against Kansas City in Week 12 and Cleveland in Week 13, but that's about it. The Chargers offensive line isn't opening holes, and Philip Rivers has turned San Diego into a passing team. Don't start Tomlinson against the Eagles unless you're looking for less than 10 Fantasy points this week.
I'd rather start: Ladell Betts (vs. DEN), Shonn Greene (vs. JAC) and Cadillac Williams (at MIA)
Start Darren McFadden vs. Kansas City?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard When was the last time starting a running back fresh off of knee surgery was a good idea? How about a running back fresh off of knee surgery who will share the ball with two other running backs? The Raiders might be at home against the Chiefs, who rank 28th vs. the run, but that sounds like a favorable matchup for Justin Fargas and Michael Bush, not McFadden. If the Raiders are smart, and that's a big if considering some of their recent transactions, they'll ease McFadden back for a couple of weeks and not rush him back into action. He's worth owning, but not worth starting.
I'd rather start: Justin Fargas (vs. KC), Michael Bush (vs. KC) and Jamaal Charles (at OAK)
Jamey Eisenberg McFadden plans to return for this matchup against the Chiefs, and it's a good move on his part. I'm going to use him as a flex option this week. Seven running backs have reached double digits in Fantasy points against Kansas City this year, including McFadden in Week 2 when he had 35 rushing yards and a touchdown and two catches for 20 yards. He should be able to do that again even after missing four games with a knee injury. And, for what it's worth, the Raiders also get Robert Gallery back this week, which should help the offensive line. I'll say McFadden should reach double digits in Fantasy points.
I'd start him over: Correll Buckhalter (at DEN), Julius Jones (at ARI) and Kevin Smith (at MIN)
Start Jason Witten at Green Bay?
Dave Richard Jamey Eisenberg
Dave Richard If you're like me, you own Witten in your league and you've had enough. The simple fact that he couldn't make hay with seven receptions last week against a tight end-friendly defense like the Eagles is proof that there's something wrong with his game. In standard-scoring leagues, he hasn't topped five Fantasy points in his last five games. Get this -- he's been targeted three times in the red zone this year. That's it. I'll pass on him being my starting tight end going forward regardless of the matchup. Give me someone who has a shot at posting eight or more Fantasy points instead.
I'd rather start: Benjamin Watson (at IND), Heath Miller (vs. CIN), Dustin Keller (vs. JAC)
Jamey Eisenberg As I said in my midseason review, Witten has been the biggest bust this year. He has no games with double digits in Fantasy points, but at some point he's going to break through with a productive outing. He faces a Packers team this week that has allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends, including three in the past two weeks against Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Witten had seven catches last week at Philadelphia, and the coaching staff appears to be making an effort to get him more involved. I'll take my chances with Witten this week since it's hard to find 12 tight ends who are better than him that have a good matchup as well.
I'd start him over: Heath Miller vs. CIN, Dustin Keller vs. JAC and Benjamin Watson at IND

Do you agree with Dave or Jamey? Send your thoughts or questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Fantasy Faceoff in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state.

 
 
 
Player News
Rashard Mendenhall
PUP list in Mendenhall's future
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT
2:15 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Mendenhall tore his right ACL in Week 17 of last season; recovery time for such injuries is anywhere from nine months to a year.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He'll likely get the first crack at starting in place of Mendenhall. There's still a lot of time between now and the regular season, but for now it's probably safe to expect Mendenhall to not be at even close to 100 percent to start the year, which will absolutely impact his Fantasy value. By August, you might be drafting Mendenhall as a middle- to late-round sleeper you'll have to sit on for a while. We'll keep you posted on Mendenhall as best as we can.

Randy Moss
Moss: I'm coming back
Randy Moss, WR, TEN
10:10 AM
News: Randy Moss took to UStream on Monday morning to announce that he plans to return to football in 2012. Moss didn't play last season after fizzling out with the Titans during a tumultuous 2010. Moss answered fan questions on the live video site and made it clear at the end of his web stream that he intends to play again after stepping away for personal reasons. "Your boy will be back for the upcoming season," he said. "Hopefully I can get on a team and finish this thing the way I want to."
Analysis: Most people remember Moss for his incredible big plays and ridiculous stats, such as the 17 touchdowns he scored as a rookie, or the record-breaking 23 touchdowns he caught in 2007, or the 14,465 yards he gained from 1998 to 2009. But some will remember him for a very counterproductive 2010 in which he caught just five touchdowns on 28 grabs with three different teams. If he does indeed return to football, where he plays and how quick he is will ultimately determine whether he's worth a late-round flier or something far more substantial.

Calvin Johnson
Lions want to lock up Megatron
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
9:39 AM
News: Lions president Tom Lewand, who controls Detroit’s salary cap compliance, says the team has had positive negotiations with WR Calvin Johnson over a contract extension. “(Johnson’s) got a good relationship with Matthew (Stafford),” Lewand told a local radio station in Detroit. “There’s a desire to keep that (relationship) together. When that desire exists, you can get deals done.” Johnson is entering a contract year in 2012 and is coming off a sensational season, finishing the regular season with 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns with another 211 yards and two touchdowns in one playoff game against the Saints.
Analysis: Johnson is not going to leave the Lions if Detroit has anything to do with it, and we expect him to get a big deal soon. Regardless of if he's in a contract year or not in 2012, it's clear Johnson is the No. 1 WR in Fantasy, and he should be drafted in Round 1 in all formats.

DeSean Jackson
Eagles could franchise D-Jax
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
9:36 AM
News: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on WR DeSean Jackson. The report says the Eagles will not let Jackson, whose contract is set to expire, walk without getting something in return. Feb. 20 is the first day NFL teams are permitted to franchise one player before he reaches free agency. March 5 is the deadline. At 4 p.m. on March 13 the league year starts and players with four or more years of service who are not under contract are eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Jackson, who signed a four-year, $3 million deal as a rookie in 2008, will not reach the open market because the Eagles are expected to franchise him. The receiver would stand to earn approximately $9.5 million - nearly $9 million more than he made in base salary last season - if he played next season under the tag. Jackson said immediately following the season finale that he would be fine with the franchise designation.
Analysis: Jackson's play slipped some last season, partly due to his distraction over his contract, but he still caught 58 passes for 961 yards and four touchdowns. His deep routes and ability to take multiple defenders often opened up the Eagles offense underneath. Keep an eye on what happens with Jackson and where he ends up in 2012. With the Eagles he would be considered a No. 2 Fantasy WR with upside, but if he leaves Philadelphia then his value will be determined by who his quarterback is and his contract. He will likely be drafted around Round 5 in most leagues.

Isaac Redman
Redman in line to start for Steelers?
Isaac Redman, RB, PIT
2:23 PM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that there's a good chance RB Rashard Mendenhall will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. If so, he'd be forced to miss at least the first six games of the regular season. Moreover, Colbert is not convinced that Mendenhall will be able to contribute at all in 2012. "I never feel good about an ACL for a year," Colbert said according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. That would open the door for Isaac Redman to be the starting rusher entering training camp.
Analysis: With Mendenhall iffy, it's time to start giving some legit consideration to Isaac Redman as the primary rusher for the Steelers in 2012. Redman started the Steelers' playoff game at Denver and had 121 yards on 17 carries and 21 yards on two catches. He's also stepped up while working with Mendenhall and without him, though his one other start in 2011 was a flop (61 total yards, no touchdowns vs. Tennessee). By August we might recommend drafting Redman with a pick in Round 6 or 7 as a good early-season starting option with potential to be a quality Fantasy choice for the entire season. We'll see how the Steelers' run game shakes out.

Steve Slaton
Slaton, Dolphins likely parting ways
Steve Slaton, RB, MIA
12:56 PM
News: The Palm Beach Post reports that RB Steve Slaton is not expected to return to the Dolphins in 2012. Slaton played in three games this season with zero starts after being picked up on waivers before Week 4. He had 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 average) with one touchdown and a long of 28 and also returned three kickoffs for 85 yards. Slaton was signed as insurance early in the season when both Reggie Bush (groin) and Daniel Thomas (hamstring) battled injuries.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Slaton plays in 2012, but he likely has minimal Fantasy value. Ignore him in all leagues on Draft Day.

Doug Baldwin
Baldwin already working hard
Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA
11:14 AM
News: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”
Analysis: Baldwin’s production in 2011 secured his spot as Seattle’s slot receiver. But Baldwin wants to be considered a compete receiver. “They say that I’m the slot guy, but every year they’re bringing somebody in to try to take your job – that’s the upper management’s job,” he said. “So my job is to make sure that whoever they bring in doesn’t have a chance. That’s why I’m here, to be honest with you. “I want to be known as the greatest receiver who ever played the game, and it’s going to be hard to do that strictly out of the slot.” We like the way Baldwin is talking, and he has plenty of potential heading into 2012. Plan on drafting Baldwin as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues.

Hines Ward
Ward hopes to remain with Steelers
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
9:53 AM
News: Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said Monday that no decision has been made on the future of Hines Ward. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported previously that if the Steelers did decide to release Ward, he was unaware of it. NFL Network reported that Ward won't be back with the Steelers in 2012 but a source close to Ward refuted the report. Ward's 2012 salary is high and he's expected to at least take a significant pay cut, if not get released altogether. Ward has said many times that he wants to end his career in Pittsburgh but he is determined to play somewhere in 2012, even if the Steelers do not want him. Ward, who turns 36 March 8, has played all 14 of his seasons in the NFL with the Steelers and holds nearly every team receiving record.
Analysis: Keep an eye on what happens with Ward and where he ends up in 2012. No matter where Ward plays, however, he would have minimal Fantasy value, and he is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues.

Josh Morgan
Morgan fine, looks at future
Josh Morgan, WR, SF
9:49 AM
News: The Sacramento Bee reports that 49ers WR Josh Morgan left the team facility after a workout Thursday as if there was nothing wrong with him. Morgan broke his lower right leg on Oct. 9 and was placed on injured reserve. He told the Associated Press that he's begun sprinting again, and he promises to be at full speed in the spring. Coach Jim Harbaugh has said the 49ers want to re-sign Morgan, who is a good fit for their power-based West Coast offense. Morgan, however, likely will test the market in free agency before agreeing to a new deal in San Francisco.
Analysis: Keep an eye on where Morgan ends up in 2012, but he has minimal Fantasy value in the majority of leagues. Morgan is the type of player who is more valuable to his team than Fantasy owners.

Jeremy Shockey
Panthers could bring back Shockey
Jeremy Shockey, TE, CAR
9:46 AM
News: The Charlotte Observer considers re-signing free agent TE Jeremy Shockey a "high priority" this offseason. Shockey was the No. 2 TE for the Panthers behind Greg Olsen, and he had a productive season when he caught 37 passes for 455 yards and four touchdowns and missed only one game to injury.
Analysis: Though not the same receiver he was a decade ago, Shockey still is a dependable target, particularly in the red zone. If his asking price is too high, Panthers could turn to Gary Barnidge, who was having a great 2011 camp before breaking his ankle. Keep an eye on what happens with Shockey, and if he returns to the Panthers as expected he would be a No. 2 Fantasy TE on Draft Day worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues.

 
 
 
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