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Scott White

Dear Mr. Fantasy: Don't give away your depth

By | Fantasy Writer


It's all beginning to come into focus.

The contenders have separated themselves from the pretenders, and the push for the playoffs has begun, which usually signals one thing:

Trading -- lots of it.

You've already spent weeks assessing your needs and watching your reserves pile up points from your bench. The deadline approaches. Time to make something happen.

Fantasy Football - Dear Mr. Fantasy: Don't give away your depth : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

It's a good goal to have, improving your team by ridding yourself of excess. But in your enthusiasm to make something happen, remember your goal is to improve your team. You already have a good one. You don't need to act with the same desperation of a 3-5 team, jumping at every possible improvement. If you don't get a definite one, keep looking.

Otherwise, you're just moving parts around -- ones that might potentially help someone else more than you.

I need some help at the quarterback position if I'm going to make it to the playoffs. My running backs are Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Clinton Portis and Ricky Williams. My wide receivers (which include tight ends) are Calvin Johnson, Mike Sims-Walker, Dwayne Bowe, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Randy Moss and Antonio Gates. In our league, we start two running backs and three wide receivers. No flex. No points per reception. Now for the sad part: My quarterbacks are Carson Palmer, who has been off and on, and Matt Hasselbeck, who I can't trust. Are either of these guys worth using the rest of the way, or should I attempt to acquire a better quarterback? -- Harvey Meidel

SW: For starters, I agree you can't trust Hasselbeck. He's an excellent backup in Fantasy since he has the ability to put up big numbers, but if you rely on him every week, he'll burn you just as often as he helps you.

Palmer looks like the more reliable of the two and the one you should trust if given the choice, but before we get too excited about him, let's not forget he currently ranks 12th among quarterbacks in standard scoring, meaning he's the worst of the No. 1 Fantasy options in standard-sized leagues. Pure logic suggests you could stand to improve. Palmer isn't giving you any sort of advantage over the owners starting the 11 quarterbacks ahead of him.

Of course, it's not as simple as pure logic. Those rankings come from past performance, not future performance, which would be nothing more than a guess anyway. Palmer could finish with more points than many of those 11 quarterbacks in front of him, so I'd aim only for the ones I feel he has no chance of surpassing: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. And yes, you could also include Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo in that mix.

Your starting lineup should pretty much always consist of Jones-Drew, Turner, Moss, Johnson and Sims-Walker, so you can afford to trade any of those other players. Try packaging two with Palmer for Manning, Brees or Brady, and if that doesn't work, you could try for one of Rodgers, Rivers and Romo. That's one surefire way to improve your starting lineup without giving up too much depth.

I recently made a trade and wanted to hear your thoughts. I gave up Matt Hasselbeck, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Laurence Maroney and Greg Olsen for Chad Henne, Marques Colston and the Packers DST. I wanted to get a stud like Colston to start alongside Larry Fitzgerald and Mike Sims-Walker. Did I give up too much? -- Joe Kesner

SW: You had me nodding along with you until you mentioned Olsen. That might have taken the approach one step too far.

Or maybe not. Olsen had mediocre numbers before his three-touchdown game Sunday. Who says he'll have a chance to repeat the feat?

Look, I don't mean to sound wishy-washy or to give you anything less than a concrete answer, but whether or not you gave up too much depends on your own aversion to risk. In principle, I like the move. You packaged several lesser players for one greater player in an effort to improve your starting lineup, which I think you accomplished by acquiring Colston. But at what cost? Would you have started Maroney at some point? What about Hasselbeck? By trading Olsen, do you force yourself to scour the waiver wire for a replacement tight end? If upgrading at one position causes you to downgrade at another, what have you really gained?

Of course, based on where you would have drafted those players, I could see you not having to start any of them, which would mean you gave up four bench players for a must-start in Colston. But that's not the only issue here. True, you stand a better chance of building a dominant team if you consolidate depth and sacrifice your bench in the process, but you'll also build a more vulnerable one. And while you could conceivably win a league with a bench of Michael Jenkins, Louis Murphy, Greg Camarillo, Chad Simpson, Lynell Hamilton and Marc Bulger, you have to consider what happens if somebody gets hurt.

That's why even though I constantly look for ways to trade depth for talent, I try not to go overboard with it. I don't like to live so dangerously. Then again, I don't win every league, so what does that tell you?

You, my friend, might have crossed the line of going overboard. Whether or not it pays off for you depends on how well you can cover your tracks if something goes wrong.

I have relatively strong running backs and wide receivers. I've been getting by with Matt Ryan at quarterback, but this week I started Alex Smith, who doubled Ryan's points. I'm thinking of picking up Vince Young, figuring he should give me around 11-12 points a game. Given his schedule, do you think he can accomplish this? I don't want to trade any of my receivers to package Ryan for a better quarterback. -- Esteban Rodriguez

SW: Clearly, Young can do it. He has each of the last two weeks. But I don't think you can trust him to do it every week. He'll have some games where he throws some interceptions. He'll have some games where he doesn't score touchdowns. And he'll throw for less than 200 yards in just about all of them. The most intriguing part about him is his running ability since rushing yards count for twice as many points as passing yards, but since he hasn't made the most of it, rushing for only 44 yards in his two starts, I can't trust him for much in Fantasy.

In the end, I think Ryan will come around to give you an acceptable starting quarterback. He shredded the Panthers for three touchdowns in Week 2 and gets to face them again this week. He still gets to play the Buccaneers twice. Even during this rough four-game stretch, he has six touchdown passes, which is enough to give you those 11-12 points per game you hope to get from Young. Just imagine what he'll do when he gets back to playing the way he did over his first four games.

Let's not get too creative here, Esteban. If you want to find a quarterback more consistent than Ryan, you pretty much have to resort to trading. You won't find any solutions among the scrubs on the waiver wire.

I'm in a 12-team points-per-reception league that starts two running backs with no flex players. I have Frank Gore, Pierre Thomas and Rashard Mendenhall on my roster. Available on the waiver wire are Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Beanie Wells and Ladell Betts. Which of those four should I add for the rest of the season? -- Brian Podolsky, Boca Raton, Fla.

SW: Well, since you already have two clear starters and a clear backup in Mendenhall (or Thomas, depending on just how many points those receptions give you), none of these running backs figures to crack your starting lineup anyway. So forget safety. Forget consistency. You want the one with the most upside, the one who stands the best chance of outscoring Gore, Thomas and Mendenhall if given enough touches. You want McCoy.

He might already have those touches if Brian Westbrook's concussion sidelines him for an extended period of time. McCoy has essentially taken over Westbrook's role in the offense, getting almost all the touches out of Eagles' backfield. And that means, as it always has since Andy Reid took over, lots and lots of receptions. He led the team with five Sunday night.

So not only does McCoy have the ability and the opportunity to succeed, but he plays in the best offensive scheme for your particular scoring format. All those receptions might vault him ahead of Thomas and Mendenhall as long as he remains the starter.

Of those other four, Betts and Charles have poor supporting casts, and even if Wells somehow overtakes Tim Hightower in Arizona, he won't get many touches in the Cardinals' pass-happy scheme.

If Westbrook returns, those other three might get a few more touches than McCoy, but who cares? With your depth, you didn't plan on starting him anyway.

I have the misfortune of having to choose between T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Steve Smith (Panthers) as my No. 2 wide receiver every week. I can't get anything for them in a trade right now, so I'm pretty much stuck with them. Which of these former studs but current busts would you start in Week 10, and who do you like (or dislike the least) for the rest of the season? -- Don Brown, Rochester, N.Y.

SW: I had to make this same decision in one of my leagues this week, only mine was more permanent. I was choosing which one to release.

I opted for Houshmandzadeh, thinking Smith has the better chance of living up to his previous numbers. My reasoning might seem backward since Houshmandzadeh at least has adequate quarterback play while Smith has some of the worst in Jake Delhomme, but hear me out.

Smith is the only -- I repeat: only -- viable receiving option for the Panthers. Jeff King won't get it done. Neither will Muhsin Muhammad or Dwayne Jarrett. Every time the ball goes airborne, the Panthers want it to land in the arms of Smith, and that won't change no matter how much Delhomme struggles. So unless the Panthers give up passing completely, throwing for only 50 yards or so per game, Smith has a chance to put up big numbers. He did last year, and Delhomme wasn't exactly Dan Marino then.

Houshmandzadeh, on the other hand, has struggled even though Matt Hasselbeck has had a fair amount of success. How? The Seahawks have other options. They can go to Nate Burleson or John Carlson or Deion Branch instead, leaving Houshmandzadeh to play the role of decoy. He has less than 50 receiving yards in five of his first eight games, including ones against the Rams and the Lions. With all the options the Seahawks have, a good matchup doesn't even guarantee big numbers for him.

Houshmandzadeh has found a way to disappear in a perfectly legitimate passing scheme, and I don't know what he needs to reappear. But I do know he isn't as important to his team as Smith is to his. For that reason, I wouldn't put as much confidence in him.

Ronnie Brown is my No. 1 running back. Who should I start as my No. 2: Kevin Smith (at Minnesota), Cadillac Williams (at Miami) or Julius Jones (at Arizona)? -- Jerry Luciani

SW: Minnesota might seem like a scary matchup, especially for a player on an awful team like the Lions, but I think Smith is the easy call here.

He might not have any huge performances this season, but the Lions give him the ball 15-20 times every week, with a handful of receptions thrown in (puns galore there), and he puts up the same useful numbers every time, regardless of matchup. He had one of his better games -- at least in terms of yardage -- against the Vikings earlier this year, carrying a season-high 24 times for 83 yards. As long as you don't expect him to single-handedly win you the game, he won't disappoint.

Williams and Jones just so happen to face two of the better run defenses in the league, making your decision easier, but even if they didn't, I'd still go with Smith. Williams disappears too often in that mess of an offense in Tampa Bay, and Jones couldn't muster more than 36 rushing yards against the lowly Lions last week. Sure, he redeemed himself with six receptions, but he usually doesn't play that type of role on offense.

This isn't one of those "Who should I pick up because my player is on bye?" questions. This is me wondering why people ask them so often. I feel like I'm the only person in the world who drafted two quarterbacks who have different bye weeks and am completely prepared to play one over the other. Are there people who really only drafted one quarterback and then rely on the kindness of their opponents to let a good reserve sit on waivers? -- David Bedno, San Jose, Calif.

SW: All right, Jerry Seinfeld -- er, David. At least I know you've been paying attention.

You do bring up a point for people to consider next year. A second quarterback for that all-important bye week is a nice luxury to have. I know I've enjoyed the security of Matt Schaub and Kurt Warner in the one league I own both. Actually, I'm 2-7, which in and of itself says something about the merits of that strategy.

The truth is there's no right answer here. It's a matter of preference, a matter of value, a matter of the way the draft happens to shake out. You have your golden rule, but I've heard other people suggest you should never, ever draft a third quarterback. Well, why the heck not? Value is value. If I had subscribed to that reasoning in my auction league, I would have let Schaub go to someone else for a $2 bid, leaving me with only Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton (that team is 8-1, by the way).

A bye lasts only one week. If someone wants to take his chances with an Alex Smith or Matthew Stafford for just that week, I don't think it's the worst strategy ever, especially if he would have had to reach on Draft Day to ensure his second quarterback had a different bye week from his first. Too much changes between then and now to do something so dramatic.

Which brings me to my next point: How do you know all these people didn't draft second quarterbacks? Maybe they drafted Chad Pennington, Trent Edwards or Shaun Hill and didn't see the point of adding a replacement like Stafford until the one week they needed him.

So let's not get all high and mighty here. You found an approach you like and have gotten the luck you needed to make it work, but other people win in other ways. Some work better than others, but none work every time.

I'm thinking of trading Matt Forte for Dallas Clark. I currently rotate Forte and Anquan Boldin in my flex spot. Dustin Keller is my current tight end. Would any other tight ends excite you enough to give up Forte? -- Craig Middleton

SW: For Clark, I'd probably do it. Probably. But I'd like to have a better replacement in place than Boldin, who has an ankle injury, a grudge against the coaching staff and only one Fantasy-relevant performance all season. Safe to say I have my concerns about him going forward.

Which is why I wouldn't trade Forte for any tight end other than Clark. Some people might place Vernon Davis and Antonio Gates in the same category, but not me. Clark clearly distinguished himself as the one tight end who plays like a wide receiver with his 14 receptions against the Texans in Week 9. He now has 16 more receptions and 113 more receiving yards than any other tight end, and while he might not have the touchdowns of Davis, those suggest more about past circumstances than future opportunities.

Keller started to look like himself in his last game, catching eight passes for 76 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins, and he has the potential to finish just as strong as any tight end not named Clark. I wouldn't sacrifice the week-to-week upside of Forte unless I knew I was getting a definite improvement at another position.

You can e-mail your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Dear Mr. Fantasy in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state and we'll get to as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Richard Seymour
Seymour gets bonus from Raiders
Richard Seymour, DT, OAK
11:38 AM
News: The Oakland Raiders have paid DL Richard Seymour his $7.5 million roster bonus, ensuring he'll stay with the Raiders next season. The Raiders could have released Seymour and his massive contract, but chose instead to keep him and not make wholesale changes to the roster.
Analysis: The 32-year-old Seymour played in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2011 as he recorded 29 tackles and six sacks. His six sacks were his highest total since notching eight in 2008 for New England. Seymour is just a low-end option when it comes to IDP formats in Fantasy play.

Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
2/11/2012
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
2/11/2012
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
2/11/2012
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

 
 
 
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