Tricks of the Trade: Bush name has value

I try not to let natural phenomena throw me for a loop. Usually, they have reasonable explanations that I can understand on some distant level. The phases of the moon, the lengthening and shortening of days, the Patriots' undying allegiance to Kevin Faulk -- they all make sense to me.

But I can't for the life of me, on this earth or any other, figure out why Reggie Bush remains owned 91 percent of Fantasy leagues.

It's silly. It has no basis statistically or realistically. He's the third option out of the Saints' backfield and hasn't had more than 10 touches in a game since Week 3. Even when Lance Moore missed Sunday's game with an ankle injury and the Saints had to rely on Bush as their primary receiver underneath, he still handled the ball only nine times.

So what is it? His celebrity status? His college highlight reel? The fear that if he winds up on someone else's roster, he might just break a long one?

Hey, I've already said I don't understand it. But for some reason, some select group of people in the world, including the vast majority who play Fantasy Football, like him.

Sounds like a ripe opportunity to get whatever you can for him.

Trade No. 1: Bush bash
Team A gets: Reggie Bush
Team B gets: Braylon Edwards

"Oh, but Bush scores touchdowns," you tell me. "Anyone who scores touchdowns has value."

True, he has scored four touchdowns this season, so if you happened to start him one of those four games, he wasn't completely useless. Do four touchdowns in the first half of the season automatically mean four in the second? I don't know. I'll be the first to admit his skewed touchdown-to-yardage ratio might not be an accident. Perhaps the Saints prefer to use him at the goal line, where running backward for 5 yards in order to gain 2 makes some small amount of sense.

But even if he continues to score touchdowns with semi-regularity, how much do they really help your Fantasy team? Only once this season has he scored more than 10 points in a game, and it came back when Thomas had a sprained MCL.

Clearly, he has talent -- that college highlight reel says so -- but he hasn't gotten results with that talent, and barring another injury, he has no chance to. I see him as nothing more than a glorified handcuff option, a player more deserving of 60 percent ownership than 90.

Edwards hasn't offered reliable Fantasy numbers either, but at least he has the opportunity as a starting wide receiver with All-Pro talent. His role only stands to increase between now and the end of the year as rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez continues to develop. He showed signs just before the team's bye, catching four passes for 74 yards and a touchdown in Week 9.

Is he must-start? No, but neither is Bush. I'll take the one whose playing time gives him more upside from week to week.

Winner: Team B for getting some measure of value for Bush.

Trade No. 2: Boldin the pitiful
Team A gets: Anquan Boldin, Julius Jones, Terrell Owens and Colts DST
Team B gets: Calvin Johnson

This trade looks lopsided, and it is. Only one team gets a player it can start without worry.

It's not the team you'd think, of course. You'd think the one getting four players -- all plenty recognizable in Fantasy -- would at least stumble into something useful. But it's that other team, the one getting the player with 29 total receiving yards over the last five weeks, that got the better end of the deal.

Stop and consider how much (or how little) those four players will actually do for Team A. Owens has become little more than waiver fodder, averaging 35.1 receiving yards in eight games. Jones can contribute when he has the right matchups, but he rarely takes advantage of the few opportunities he gets. The Colts DST has had its moments, but defenses are interchangeable based on matchups and, other than the very best, don't have much value on their own. The only one of these four with any real significance is Boldin, making this trade essentially a straight-up swap of Boldin for Johnson.

And I'm sorry, but I'd rather have Johnson.

Boldin has issues. Not only did he miss last week's game with a high ankle sprain, but he questioned the coaching staff's decision to sit him -- a conflict magnified by his offseason trade requests. During an otherwise healthy season, he has yet to put up 100 yards in a game, has only twice put up 80 and has scored exactly one touchdown. Steve Breaston has done more than that, and between Breaston and Larry Fitzgerald, Boldin could continue to get the short end of the stick.

Johnson won't. He didn't make a big splash in his return from a knee injury last week and hasn't done much even when healthy this season, but he has to eventually. He's by far the most talented receiver on the Lions, who have to put the ball in the air every week just to stay in contention. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, even as a rookie, has thrown for at least 200 yards in four of his first six games. You don't think Johnson will eventually get his share of those yards?

Even if he doesn't, even if the fluke continues, he's no worse than Boldin.

Winner: Team B for getting someone to bite on an attractive-looking deal that really doesn't have much substance.

Trade No. 3: The lesser of two evils
Team A gets: LaDainian Tomlinson and Todd Heap
Team B gets: Jason Witten

Who cares, right?

Tomlinson and Witten have stood out as two of the biggest busts of the Fantasy Football season, neither living up to expectations and both forcing their owners to seek out alternatives. Swapping the two only prolongs the misery, delays the inevitable and gives the illusion of progress. Nope, there are no winners in this deal, only losers.

So says the loser.

I see value here for one team because I think one of these players still has a chance to resuscitate his season. I'll give you a hint: It's not Tomlinson.

When a player struggles, instead of bemoaning the struggles themselves and resigning to the belief they'll continue, I try to get to the bottom of them. If I don't have any good reasons why they happened, then I don't have any good reasons for them to continue.

I do have good reasons they won't continue for Witten. He still plays a consistent role in the Cowboys' passing game. He hasn't disappeared, ranking second among all tight ends in receptions. He just hasn't gotten the big plays and the touchdowns he did in years past. Why? You could blame the loss of Terrell Owens, which allowed defenses to direct their attention to Witten, but all that changes with the emergence of Miles Austin. The distribution of talent gives you some hope that, with all those touches, Witten will eventually break a few long ones.

Plus, he's a tight end. Just how much can you expect from him? Even with his struggles, he ranks 15th at the position, so one big game would vault him right back into the top 10.

Tomlinson, on the other hand, is old. He's injury prone. He splits carries with Darren Sproles on a team that has become increasingly pass-heavy. He has plenty of reasons for his demise, which is why I take it more seriously than Witten's.

Winner: Team B for trading a player who doesn't have a chance to rebound for one who does.

Trade No. 4: Turn that Brown upside down
Team A gets: Ronnie Brown, Steve Smith (Giants) and Matt Hasselbeck
Team B gets: Calvin Johnson, Eli Manning and Willis McGahee

Brown has lost some of his luster over the past three weeks -- a development that has everything to do with numbers. During that stretch, he's averaging 41 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.

It's enough to make even the most loyal Brown supporters question his prospects for the rest of the season. Were those 443 yards and six touchdowns he accumulated over the first five games a fluke? Does he lose too many carries to Ricky Williams? Will he have a chance to succeed with an unproven quarterback under center?

With that line of questioning comes doubt, and with that doubt comes worry, and with that worry -- if you're lucky -- comes a willingness to deal.

Not for just anyone, of course. No, any deal for Brown would have to include someone just as useful -- someone like Johnson, who I like, you like, and the majority of the Fantasy-playing community likes because he offers elite potential.

But Brown offers something even better.

In case you didn't notice, his struggles came against the Saints, Jets and Patriots. Kind of puts it in perspective, right? In the weeks that follow, he faces the Buccaneers, Panthers, Bills, Jaguars, Titans and Texans, who offer about as much resistance as a fitted bed sheet. The only thing close to a difficult matchup for him the rest of the way is Week 13 against the Patriots. He faces the Steelers in Week 17, but by then, who cares?

That schedule doesn't just hint of a resurgence. It suggests he could conceivably outscore every running back the rest of the way. He certainly gets the touches to make it happen.

As much as I like Johnson, the Dolphins' schedule makes this deal too enticing to pass up, especially since Team A also gets a satisfactory replacement for Johnson in Smith. Team B doesn't get any sort of replacement, not unless you think McGahee still has value.

Winner: Team A for buying low on a player destined to get hot.

Trade No. 5: Hightower within reach
Team A gets: Tim Hightower
Team B gets: Brandon Jacobs and Roy E. Williams

I'll admit it upfront: Hightower has become a reliable Fantasy option.

He matters more this year than he did as a rookie last year, when he scored 10 touchdowns despite only 399 yards rushing and a pitiful 2.8 yards per carry.

Has his rushing improved this year? Not by much, but he has become a viable receiver out of the backfield, actually putting up more yards through the air (307) than on the ground (283). That ability combined with his presence at the goal line has enabled him to score 10 points or more in five of his first eight games.

That's consistency.

But it comes with a limit since the Cardinals lean so heavily on their passing game. Hightower never gets 20 carries, meaning he never gets 100 yards, so while he might continually score more than 10 points, he has yet to score as many as 15.

Enter Jacobs -- by all accounts, one of the biggest disappointments in Fantasy this season. He has yet to rush for 100 yards in a game and has scored only two touchdowns to Hightower's five, limiting him to fewer than 10 points in six of his first nine games.

But unlike the Cardinals, the Giants do like to establish a running game, routinely giving Jacobs more than 20 carries per game. He hasn't exactly rolled over with them either, averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He scored 15 touchdowns last year and still gets enough carries at the goal line for me to think his luck has to turn eventually.

He has the better opportunity for breakout games, ones where he scores 15-20 points and single-handedly delivers you victories. I'll take that upside over Hightower's consistency, especially since Jacobs exactly isn't a boom-or-bust type himself. You can't really disappear when you get that many touches.

Winner: Team B for using Hightower's current value to acquire a player with more upside.

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