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Dave Richard

History Lessons: Green growing on Moss?

By | Senior Fantasy Writer


The Patriots will host the Jets in Week 11, and a very popular storyline in that game will be how Patriots receiver Randy Moss plays against Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis. Their matchup is getting a lot of hype this week.

You can talk about the stats all you want, but for this review, we looked back at the tape. Moss and Revis have done battle five times -- here's how they've done against each other:

Week 1 2007: Moss plays in his first game with the Patriots, Revis his first NFL game ever. Both start. Moss catches nine passes for 187 yards with a 51-yard touchdown, but on several plays Revis was not on top of Moss. He wasn't covering Moss on his first catch as a Patriot, an 18-yard play, but he was lined up on Moss for the 51-yard score. Moss blew past Revis and out-ran triple coverage -- Revis not included -- for the deep ball haul.

Week 15 2007: Revis and the Jets do a better job this time corralling Moss with some safety coverage behind Revis. In total, Moss catches five balls for 79 yards but only one catch -- a 46-yard bomb in the fourth quarter -- is a killer. Again, Moss gets past Revis and catches Tom Brady's lob over safety Kerry Rhodes. But that's all, folks -- Revis even intercepted a pass intended for Moss.

Fantasy Football - History Lessons: Green growing on Moss? : FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

Week 2 2008: Matt Cassel made his first NFL start but attempted just 23 passes and had minimal yardage as the Patriots protected him some by running the ball 31 times (not including another rush by Cassel). Moss had two catches for 22 yards; Revis did a solid job hounding Moss, but let's not forget that Cassel was very raw at this point in time and the Pats weren't executing a gameplan as if Brady was under center. But Revis began jamming Moss at the line of scrimmage on nearly every play, taking his timing off and forcing him toward the sideline -- a strategy that has proven successful. There was even one play where Revis locked up Moss and then tackled Wes Welker from behind after Welker had escaped his coverage. He defended both Patriots receivers!

Week 11 2008: With Matt Cassel more sure of himself, the Patriots were able to unleash a strong passing offense as Cassel threw for exactly 400 yards with three touchdowns (on 51 pass attempts!) against the Jets. But Moss had just three grabs for 26 yards, albeit with a touchdown. Revis was not locked in on Moss the entire game -- there were several plays where he was lined up on Welker in the slot. In fact, Cassel's touchdown to Benjamin Watson was caught right in front of Revis, who had drawn Welker on the play but was a little out of position to make a play on Watson's catch in the end zone. But you can't fault Revis for Randy Moss' touchdown with one second left to force overtime -- he wasn't covering him. That was left to Ty Law, who gave Moss a free release off the snap and couldn't quite reach to break up Cassel's pass that Moss grabbed while leaning out of bounds with his feet in bounds. Revis was nowhere near the play.

Week 2 2009: Tom Brady was back but he wasn't really comfortable. The Jets not only knew to jam up Moss as much as possible but were able to bring pressure thanks to Rex Ryan's schemes that have been bugging Brady for years (more on that in a bit). Moss had four catches for 24 yards as Revis did a number on him, picking off a pass intended for him and not letting Moss get free for long gains. Moss' first catch went nowhere as Revis jammed him and then got all over him when he made a catch on a hitch route. There was a play where Revis gave Moss a free release and watched Brady's eyes -- not Moss -- and didn't even blink at Moss jogging in front of him. It was as if Revis knew that Moss knew he wasn't getting the ball, and there were several times where Revis would catch Moss taking a play off and try to make a play elsewhere.

Obviously, the Patriots are aware of Revis and what his impact is on Moss. But the Patriots have used that against the Jets as Moss has been a decoy for many of their recent games. For example, Cassel's 400-yard output was somewhat helped by Moss not making many plays because the Jets wouldn't truly give Revis one-on-one responsibility on Moss -- a safety would be waiting behind Revis in case Moss got away from him. Welker, Watson and Jabar Gaffney all posted quality reception and yardage totals in that game, and earlier this season Julian Edelman made Fantasy owners swoon with a 98-yard performance in place of Welker.

What happens this week? The Patriots may continue to use Moss as a decoy except near the red zone. One thing's for sure -- they can't count on him to be a regular option deep because of how Revis is on top of him at the line of scrimmage and down the field. Throw in the pressure Brady will face and it could be another long day for Moss.

If the history means anything, though, you can look at Revis' play against Moss and believe that stats will not come easy for the future Hall of Fame receiver in Week 11. But that said, can you afford to sit him? Unlike other players who we call sits across the board, owners are implored to consider two things: The other players they can replace him with, and the ramifications if Moss has a huge game and is on your bench. Most owners don't have a "safe" receiver that can start in place of Moss, and most owners won't have the nerves to sit Moss for obvious reasons: One hundred yards and a touchdown look awful on the bench.

Air raid for Brady?

Before Week 2 we brought up Rex Ryan's history of game planning against Tom Brady. The thing that stood out the most was how Brady failed to complete more than 50 percent of his passes. In Week 2, Brady was 23 of 47 -- just under 50 percent!

vs. BAL (11.28/04): 15 of 30 passing (50.0 pct.), 172 yards (5.73 yards/att.), 0 TDs, 0 INT
at BAL (12/03/07): 18 of 38 passing (47.4 pct.), 257 yards (6.76 yards/att.), 2 TDs, 1 INT
at NYJ (9/20/09): 23 of 47 passing (48.9 pct.), 216 yards (4.59 yards/att.), 0 TD, 1 INT

How does Ryan do it? Lots of pressure by his defense, including his safeties. While Brady wasn't sacked in Week 2, he was knocked down a bunch and had to force some passes.

Now, Brady also was a little tentative playing on his surgically repaired knee and didn't have Welker on his side (though Edelman did plenty to help out there). So perhaps the expectation is that Brady will be at his best this Sunday at home against the Jets.

There's one factor that you -- and the Jets -- may also have to consider: The New York run defense has taken a nosedive since losing nose tackle Kris Jenkins. With Revis all over Moss and Brady already a little iffy in two previous games against Ryan, perhaps New England will run the ball a little more than they have in the past.

We'll see how it plays out.

More touchdowns for L.T.?

Remember the good ol' days of Fantasy Football when LaDainian Tomlinson would score four times in three games and no one would blink an eye? Before 2008 it was more shocking if L.T. didn't score than if he did.

Over the last two seasons, Tomlinson has been under the microscope since he hadn't been performing to standards. But over his last three games he's scored four touchdowns and has seen an uptick in carries since coming back from an ankle injury.

Moreover, he's playing a familiar opponent, the Broncos, that have had a real hard time with running backs over the last three weeks. After building a staunch run defense through the first seven weeks of the season, the Broncos have allowed 516 total yards and two touchdowns to opposing running backs with three straight opponents having a single back total over 100 yards. The Broncos' run defense has been especially bad because their defensive linemen have been getting stood up and running backs have made a killing running between the tackles. Their safeties have also been out of position on some of the runs, which makes for long gains.

Tomlinson must be drooling. He had 100 total yards at home vs. the Broncos earlier this year, which was pretty good for him at the time. And get this -- the last time Tomlinson went a year without scoring on the Broncos was 2003. Since then, he's totaled 891 rush yards, 238 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns over 11 games.

Tomlinson hasn't had many long runs this season, which might help the Broncos, but if he can provide a consistent punch on the ground he'll help bury the Broncos. Between his storied history against them and how he's been playing -- and how the Broncos have been playing -- this should be a good week for L.T.

Bad Brees blowing by the Bay?

When you think of the 2009 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you don't think of a suffocating defense. Drew Brees is likely studying them with his typical diligence, but folks in New Orleans are likely expecting a laugher.

Of course, they were thinking the same thing when they marched into St. Louis last week and nearly lost. Brees and the Saints' offense haven't blown the doors off of an opponent for a while, and the Buccaneers are coming off a tough loss and a narrow win.

This might not be such an easy game for the Saints, especially when you consider how Brees has played in Tampa Bay. His first game there with the Saints was a rousing success (314 yards three touchdowns, no interceptions) but his last two trips were met with some trouble as Brees totaled 556 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions in those games. The Saints had a hard time running the ball in both games, and while Brees made great use of Marques Colston (who has never played a bad game at Tampa Bay) the rest of his offense sagged. Worse yet, the Saints lost both games to the Buccaneers.

Don't be too scared by these stats -- Tampa's run defense isn't what it used to be. In fact, the Saints might opt to take an element from their win last week and run more than pass to better exploit Tampa Bay and pull out their first win there in three years. Of course, that wouldn't be so great for Brees either because his stat line wouldn't be high if he's handing off to Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell. Nothing in this argument is convincing enough for an owner to sit Brees, but this is not the week to expect 350 yards and three touchdowns.

History says these players will enjoy Week 11 ...
Miles Austin Touchdown in home game vs. Redskins last year.
Anquan Boldin 15 catches, 203 yards, two TDs in last three vs. St. Louis
Jason Campbell Five TDs, two INTs in three career starts vs. Cowboys
Larry Fitzgerald 507 yards, five TDs in last five vs. Rams
Devin Hester Scored in last year's game against Philadelphia
Tim Hightower 141 rush yards in two '08 games vs. Rams with TD in each
DeSean Jackson 106 total yards, TD in '08 game at Chicago
Fred Jackson 100 total yards at Jacksonville last season
Andre Johnson 21 catches, 356 yards, three TDs in last two vs. TEN
Chris Johnson 284 total yards, three TDs vs. Houston in Week 2
Marshawn Lynch TD, 67 total yards in '08 meeting at Jaguars
Peyton Manning Seven TDs in last two vs. Ravens
Santana Moss Three 110+ yard games in last four (five-plus catches in each) vs. DAL
Greg Olsen 35 yards, TD last year vs. Eagles
Tony Romo 10 TDs, four INTs in last four relevant games vs. WAS (excludes '07 finale)
Matt Schaub Five TDs, no INTs in last two vs. Titans
Tony Scheffler Four TDs in last three vs. Chargers (101 yards, TD in Week 6 meeting)
Kurt Warner Three 275+ yard games, six TDs in last three vs. Rams
Reggie Wayne 10 catches, 160 yards, 2 TDs in last two vs. Ravens
Cadillac Williams Three rushing touchdowns in last two at home vs. Saints
History tells a sad story for these players ...
Joseph Addai 145 total yards, three TDs in three career games vs. BAL
Donnie Avery Five catches, 44 yards in two '08 games vs. Cardinals
Marion Barber Two TDs, one 100-yard game in career vs. Redskins (seven games)
Ladell Betts No TDs vs. Dallas since 2005 (six games)
Marc Bulger Eight INTs, six TDs in last four vs. Cardinals
Jerricho Cotchery One TD, no 100-yard games in last five vs. Patriots
Dallas Clark Six catches, 86 yards, no TDs in four career games vs. BAL
Matt Forte 85 total yards in last year's game with Eagles
David Garrard 165 yards, no TDs, INT, 32 rush yards last year at home vs. Bills
Steven Jackson One TD, two 100-total-yard games in last five vs. Cardinals (3.3 rush avg.)
Thomas Jones One TD, one 100-yard game in last five vs. NE (54 rush yards in early meeting)
Brandon Marshall One TD, one 100-yard game in last five vs. SD (49 yards in Week 6 meeting)
Donovan McNabb One game with two TDs in six career meeting with Bears
Knowshon Moreno 18 carries, 44 yards in earlier '09 meeting with Chargers
Roy E. Williams Three catches, 36 yards in each of last two meetings vs. Washington
Jason Witten One TD, one game over 70 yards in last five vs. WAS

You can email your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: History Lessons in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state, and we'll get to as many as we can.

 
 
 
Player News
Rey Maualuga
Maualuga charged by police
Rey Maualuga, MLB, CIN
10:23 AM
News: Bengals LB Rey Maualuga has officially been charged by Cincinnati police with misdemeanor assault stemming from a bar fight last weekend. This report comes from The Associated Press. The Bengals had no comment.
Analysis: Maualuga is likely to be at least fined for this incident, especially after his 2010 DUI arrest cost him two game checks. He won't miss any playing time, though. Maualuga is just a low-end option in IDP formats heading into next season.

Hines Ward
Report: Steelers to cut ties with Ward
Hines Ward, WR, PIT
10:12 AM
News: NFL.com reports that the Steelers are not expected to bring back receiver Hines Ward for 2012. This news comes according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. "He has one year left on his deal worth $4 million," said La Canfora. "According to my sources, he won't be back there. So that's $4 million off the books."
Analysis: Ward has said he'd be open to taking a pay cut, but it sounds like Pittsburgh is ready to just cut ties with him. Ward would be a No. 4 WR and that means he'd likely have to play on special teams, which he likely would not want. Ward will have little Fantasy value entering 2012, that is for sure.

Kevin Faulk
Faulk contemplating retirement
Kevin Faulk, RB, NE
10:04 AM
News: New England RB Kevin Faulk is contemplating retirement after being a healthy inactive for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, reports the Boston Globe. "That morning, when I got the word that I wasn’t going to dress . . . wow," Faulk said. “I went in the room, cried a little bit, because 75 percent of me knew that this could be my last game playing, not playing, just dressing. If I dress, there could be that chance that I could play. So that really crushed me a whole lot. Went into my room, read my Bible, read so many different Scriptures, so many different chapters in the Bible, until it was time to go to the stadium. [I took] my exit physical after the game and the trainers give me a big hug and that’s when I knew, like ‘Wow, that might be it'."
Analysis: Faulk was drafted in 1999 and the 35-year-old RB is a member of New England's 50th anniversary team. He didn't actually declare himself retired, leaving the door slightly ajar on his 14th NFL season. Faulk might finish his career with 31 total touchdowns, 15 receiving and 16 rushing. He had a solid career, but isn't a recommended Fantasy option if he does return next year.

Rob Gronkowski
Gronkowski has ankle surgery
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2/10/2012
News: The Boston Herald reports that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski underwent successful surgery Friday to fix his ailing ankle. The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to clean out the ankle. Gronkowski played on a high-ankle sprain in Super Bowl XLVI, battling ligament damage to make two catches for 26 yards. The estimate is that it’s a 10-week recovery. That should allow him to be ready by mid-April, possibly for mini-camp.
Analysis: Continue to monitor what happens with Gronkowski this offseason, but he should be fine for the start of the 2012 season. Consider Gronkowski the No. 1 TE heading into the season. We can see Gronkowski being drafted as a Top 15 pick in all leagues, but it's a safer option to take him toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in all formats.

Reggie Wayne
Wayne unsure of future
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND
2/10/2012
News: Reggie Wayne told ESPN that while he'd like to stay with the Colts, he's just not sure if they want him. Wayne is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason and understands that his time might be over in Indy after 11 years. "I have been there 11 years and I would prefer to end my career a Colt. However, in due time those feelings could subside," he said. "I haven't heard anything from them yet, so maybe I am not as important on the chain of command as I should be. But either way, I'm cool. I have nothing bad to say about the Colts. ... My phone hasn't rung yet. It's only fair I worry about number 87 first. When I'm signed, then I can weigh in more."
Analysis: Wayne had a mostly horrible season thanks in big part to Peyton Manning being on the sideline. He caught 75 passes for 960 yards and four touchdowns, three coming in the final six weeks of the year. We don't think his 2011 is indicative of a slow-down in his game, but uncertainty about who he'll catch passes from and what his role will be keeps him from being a receiver we can get excited about. For now consider him a No. 3 Fantasy WR worth a mid-round pick.

Peyton Manning
Differing views on Peyton
Peyton Manning, QB, IND
2/10/2012
News: There are two differing reports on Colts QB Peyton Manning as the saga continues early this offseason in his recovery from missing this past season from neck surgery. CBSSports.com NFL Insider Mike Freeman reports that there remain a handful of team personnel men who have serious doubts he will ever play again or at the very least will miss most of next season. But, according to NFL.com, former Colts vice chairman Bill Polian, who was fired in early January, said he believes Manning will be fine in 2012 after he last saw Manning throw in late December. "It's marked (improvement) from where he was back in September," Polian said. "He threw it accurately, he threw it with a good, tight spiral, and he threw it with velocity. Generally, he looked like a pretty confident quarterback out there." Polian also indicated that Manning was able to make a variety of throws and throw across his body, which differs from a report on NFL Network earlier this week. Polian said that Manning's recovery is "coming, but coming slowly. But, nonetheless, its making progress."
Analysis: The bottom line with Manning is until the public sees him throw or work in practice we won't know where he's at in his recovery. The Colts also have to make a decision on his contract or else he can sign with a new team, with Arizona, Miami and Washington the likely suitors. If healthy, Manning will remain a No. 1 Fantasy QB no matter where he plays, but he has to prove that his neck is 100 percent. Continue to monitor what happens with Manning, and hopefully he can resume his career without any problems.

Fred Jackson
Jackson cleared, contract coming
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
2/10/2012
News: Fred Jackson has been cleared to return to football activities for a couple of weeks following a broken fibula, but the good news for him doesn't stop there. The official team website reports that Jackson has been promised by team GM Buddy Nix that he will receive a contract extension, with the timeline set for before the 2012 season. Jackson is slated to be in a contract year as it stands now, but a new deal would change that. "Fred and I have talked," said Nix. "We want to extend Fred. I'd like for Fred to finish his career as a Bill. He's meant a lot to us. I've got great respect for him. We do want Fred back and we do intend to try to work out a deal with him. I've told him that. What we said is what we're going to do."
Analysis: Jackson told the site that he's ready to get started in 2012 after missing the last six games of the season with a broken leg. While he was sidelined, C.J. Spiller stepped up and put some good moves on the field, complicating the Buffalo running back situation heading into the new year. Chances are the Bills will lean on Jackson as they have been, but Spiller could take a bigger share of the run-game workload than in the past, and that could put a cap on what Jackson is capable of doing. He's also 31 years old but doesn't have the wear-and-tear that typically comes with rushers over 30. If the Bills extend Jackson then it will be clear that he's a part of their future and a potential 15-touch-per-game back. If not, he'll be in a contract year and could play well in hopes of cashing in after next season. Either way he represents a solid value as a No. 2 Fantasy RB worth a pick between late Round 3 and early Round 5.

Lavelle Hawkins
Hawkins gets three-year deal
Lavelle Hawkins, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Tennessean reports Friday that the Titans have agreed to terms on a contract extension for WR Lavelle Hawkins, who had his best season in 2011. He had 47 catches for 470 yards and one touchdown.
Analysis: Hawkins has minimal Fantasy value heading into 2012, especially if Kenny Britt (knee) returns at 100 percent. Keep an eye on what happens with the Titans receiving corps, but ignore Hawkins on Draft Day in most leagues.

Kenny Britt
Britt 'working hard'
Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
2/10/2012
News: The Sports Xchange reports that new Titans GM Ruston Webster said WR Kenny Britt, who suffered a torn ACL in September and had surgery in early October, should return in time for training camp in 2012. He said Britt appears to be a fast healer and is ahead of schedule in his recovery. "Kenny has been working hard and he's coming fast, probably even a little faster than I thought he would. So I'm real happy about that," he said. "We expect to have him out there for training camp. The good thing about his injury, is there is a good thing, is it happened early, and he's a very strong young and bounces back very quickly. We're hoping and planning to have him back for training camp."
Analysis: Britt is expected to make a full recovery in time for the start of the 2012 season, and hopefully he can come into training camp in shape. We consider Britt a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3 Fantasy WR when healthy, and he is worth drafting with a mid-round pick if his knee proves to be 100 percent.

Kevin Smith
Smith wants return to Lions
Kevin Smith, RB, DET
2/10/2012
News: According to mlive.com, impending free agent RB Kevin Smith would like to return to the Lions in 2012. Smith, 25, re-signed with Detroit last November and had four starts in seven games. He finished the regular season with 72 carries for 356 yards and four touchdowns, plus had 22 receptions for 179 yards and three scores. "In every interview that I've done, even though I'm a free agent, I've referred to the team and me as us," Smith said. "I'm on the Lions roster in my opinion until I'm not on the Lions roster. That says it all."
Analysis: Smith is a former third-round selection by Detroit in 2008. He showed promise as a rookie, gaining 976 yards and scoring eight touchdowns on 238 carries. He started 13 games in 2009 before suffering a season-ending injury to his left knee. He rushed for 747 yards and four touchdowns prior to his injury. Smith was phased out of the offense with the arrival of Jahvid Best in 2010. Detroit decided not to make him an offer when he became a restricted free agent after that season. After Best sustained a season-ending concussion last season, Detroit re-signed Smith. We'll find out if he can return to the Lions, who also have second-year RB Mikel Leshoure, who also is recovering from a season-ending Achilles tendon injury sustained in the preseason. Keep an eye on what happens with Smith, but he should only be drafted with a late-round pick if he's back in Detroit.

 
 
 
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