History Lessons: Green growing on Moss?
By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer Follow DaveFollow CBS Fantasy Football
The Patriots will host the Jets in Week 11, and a very popular storyline in that game will be how Patriots receiver Randy Moss plays against Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis. Their matchup is getting a lot of hype this week.
You can talk about the stats all you want, but for this review, we looked back at the tape. Moss and Revis have done battle five times -- here's how they've done against each other:
Week 1 2007: Moss plays in his first game with the Patriots, Revis his first NFL game ever. Both start. Moss catches nine passes for 187 yards with a 51-yard touchdown, but on several plays Revis was not on top of Moss. He wasn't covering Moss on his first catch as a Patriot, an 18-yard play, but he was lined up on Moss for the 51-yard score. Moss blew past Revis and out-ran triple coverage -- Revis not included -- for the deep ball haul.
Week 15 2007: Revis and the Jets do a better job this time corralling Moss with some safety coverage behind Revis. In total, Moss catches five balls for 79 yards but only one catch -- a 46-yard bomb in the fourth quarter -- is a killer. Again, Moss gets past Revis and catches Tom Brady's lob over safety Kerry Rhodes. But that's all, folks -- Revis even intercepted a pass intended for Moss.
Week 2 2008: Matt Cassel made his first NFL start but attempted just 23 passes and had minimal yardage as the Patriots protected him some by running the ball 31 times (not including another rush by Cassel). Moss had two catches for 22 yards; Revis did a solid job hounding Moss, but let's not forget that Cassel was very raw at this point in time and the Pats weren't executing a gameplan as if Brady was under center. But Revis began jamming Moss at the line of scrimmage on nearly every play, taking his timing off and forcing him toward the sideline -- a strategy that has proven successful. There was even one play where Revis locked up Moss and then tackled Wes Welker from behind after Welker had escaped his coverage. He defended both Patriots receivers!
Week 11 2008: With Matt Cassel more sure of himself, the Patriots were able to unleash a strong passing offense as Cassel threw for exactly 400 yards with three touchdowns (on 51 pass attempts!) against the Jets. But Moss had just three grabs for 26 yards, albeit with a touchdown. Revis was not locked in on Moss the entire game -- there were several plays where he was lined up on Welker in the slot. In fact, Cassel's touchdown to Benjamin Watson was caught right in front of Revis, who had drawn Welker on the play but was a little out of position to make a play on Watson's catch in the end zone. But you can't fault Revis for Randy Moss' touchdown with one second left to force overtime -- he wasn't covering him. That was left to Ty Law, who gave Moss a free release off the snap and couldn't quite reach to break up Cassel's pass that Moss grabbed while leaning out of bounds with his feet in bounds. Revis was nowhere near the play.
Week 2 2009: Tom Brady was back but he wasn't really comfortable. The Jets not only knew to jam up Moss as much as possible but were able to bring pressure thanks to Rex Ryan's schemes that have been bugging Brady for years (more on that in a bit). Moss had four catches for 24 yards as Revis did a number on him, picking off a pass intended for him and not letting Moss get free for long gains. Moss' first catch went nowhere as Revis jammed him and then got all over him when he made a catch on a hitch route. There was a play where Revis gave Moss a free release and watched Brady's eyes -- not Moss -- and didn't even blink at Moss jogging in front of him. It was as if Revis knew that Moss knew he wasn't getting the ball, and there were several times where Revis would catch Moss taking a play off and try to make a play elsewhere.
Obviously, the Patriots are aware of Revis and what his impact is on Moss. But the Patriots have used that against the Jets as Moss has been a decoy for many of their recent games. For example, Cassel's 400-yard output was somewhat helped by Moss not making many plays because the Jets wouldn't truly give Revis one-on-one responsibility on Moss -- a safety would be waiting behind Revis in case Moss got away from him. Welker, Watson and Jabar Gaffney all posted quality reception and yardage totals in that game, and earlier this season Julian Edelman made Fantasy owners swoon with a 98-yard performance in place of Welker.
What happens this week? The Patriots may continue to use Moss as a decoy except near the red zone. One thing's for sure -- they can't count on him to be a regular option deep because of how Revis is on top of him at the line of scrimmage and down the field. Throw in the pressure Brady will face and it could be another long day for Moss.
If the history means anything, though, you can look at Revis' play against Moss and believe that stats will not come easy for the future Hall of Fame receiver in Week 11. But that said, can you afford to sit him? Unlike other players who we call sits across the board, owners are implored to consider two things: The other players they can replace him with, and the ramifications if Moss has a huge game and is on your bench. Most owners don't have a "safe" receiver that can start in place of Moss, and most owners won't have the nerves to sit Moss for obvious reasons: One hundred yards and a touchdown look awful on the bench.
Air raid for Brady?
Before Week 2 we brought up Rex Ryan's history of game planning against Tom Brady. The thing that stood out the most was how Brady failed to complete more than 50 percent of his passes. In Week 2, Brady was 23 of 47 -- just under 50 percent!
| vs. BAL (11.28/04): 15 of 30 passing (50.0 pct.), 172 yards (5.73 yards/att.), 0 TDs, 0 INT |
| at BAL (12/03/07): 18 of 38 passing (47.4 pct.), 257 yards (6.76 yards/att.), 2 TDs, 1 INT |
| at NYJ (9/20/09): 23 of 47 passing (48.9 pct.), 216 yards (4.59 yards/att.), 0 TD, 1 INT |
How does Ryan do it? Lots of pressure by his defense, including his safeties. While Brady wasn't sacked in Week 2, he was knocked down a bunch and had to force some passes.
Now, Brady also was a little tentative playing on his surgically repaired knee and didn't have Welker on his side (though Edelman did plenty to help out there). So perhaps the expectation is that Brady will be at his best this Sunday at home against the Jets.
There's one factor that you -- and the Jets -- may also have to consider: The New York run defense has taken a nosedive since losing nose tackle Kris Jenkins. With Revis all over Moss and Brady already a little iffy in two previous games against Ryan, perhaps New England will run the ball a little more than they have in the past.
We'll see how it plays out.
More touchdowns for L.T.?
Remember the good ol' days of Fantasy Football when LaDainian Tomlinson would score four times in three games and no one would blink an eye? Before 2008 it was more shocking if L.T. didn't score than if he did.
Over the last two seasons, Tomlinson has been under the microscope since he hadn't been performing to standards. But over his last three games he's scored four touchdowns and has seen an uptick in carries since coming back from an ankle injury.
Moreover, he's playing a familiar opponent, the Broncos, that have had a real hard time with running backs over the last three weeks. After building a staunch run defense through the first seven weeks of the season, the Broncos have allowed 516 total yards and two touchdowns to opposing running backs with three straight opponents having a single back total over 100 yards. The Broncos' run defense has been especially bad because their defensive linemen have been getting stood up and running backs have made a killing running between the tackles. Their safeties have also been out of position on some of the runs, which makes for long gains.
Tomlinson must be drooling. He had 100 total yards at home vs. the Broncos earlier this year, which was pretty good for him at the time. And get this -- the last time Tomlinson went a year without scoring on the Broncos was 2003. Since then, he's totaled 891 rush yards, 238 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns over 11 games.
Tomlinson hasn't had many long runs this season, which might help the Broncos, but if he can provide a consistent punch on the ground he'll help bury the Broncos. Between his storied history against them and how he's been playing -- and how the Broncos have been playing -- this should be a good week for L.T.
Bad Brees blowing by the Bay?
When you think of the 2009 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you don't think of a suffocating defense. Drew Brees is likely studying them with his typical diligence, but folks in New Orleans are likely expecting a laugher.
Of course, they were thinking the same thing when they marched into St. Louis last week and nearly lost. Brees and the Saints' offense haven't blown the doors off of an opponent for a while, and the Buccaneers are coming off a tough loss and a narrow win.
This might not be such an easy game for the Saints, especially when you consider how Brees has played in Tampa Bay. His first game there with the Saints was a rousing success (314 yards three touchdowns, no interceptions) but his last two trips were met with some trouble as Brees totaled 556 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions in those games. The Saints had a hard time running the ball in both games, and while Brees made great use of Marques Colston (who has never played a bad game at Tampa Bay) the rest of his offense sagged. Worse yet, the Saints lost both games to the Buccaneers.
Don't be too scared by these stats -- Tampa's run defense isn't what it used to be. In fact, the Saints might opt to take an element from their win last week and run more than pass to better exploit Tampa Bay and pull out their first win there in three years. Of course, that wouldn't be so great for Brees either because his stat line wouldn't be high if he's handing off to Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell. Nothing in this argument is convincing enough for an owner to sit Brees, but this is not the week to expect 350 yards and three touchdowns.
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| Miles Austin | Touchdown in home game vs. Redskins last year. |
| Anquan Boldin | 15 catches, 203 yards, two TDs in last three vs. St. Louis |
| Jason Campbell | Five TDs, two INTs in three career starts vs. Cowboys |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 507 yards, five TDs in last five vs. Rams |
| Devin Hester | Scored in last year's game against Philadelphia |
| Tim Hightower | 141 rush yards in two '08 games vs. Rams with TD in each |
| DeSean Jackson | 106 total yards, TD in '08 game at Chicago |
| Fred Jackson | 100 total yards at Jacksonville last season |
| Andre Johnson | 21 catches, 356 yards, three TDs in last two vs. TEN |
| Chris Johnson | 284 total yards, three TDs vs. Houston in Week 2 |
| Marshawn Lynch | TD, 67 total yards in '08 meeting at Jaguars |
| Peyton Manning | Seven TDs in last two vs. Ravens |
| Santana Moss | Three 110+ yard games in last four (five-plus catches in each) vs. DAL |
| Greg Olsen | 35 yards, TD last year vs. Eagles |
| Tony Romo | 10 TDs, four INTs in last four relevant games vs. WAS (excludes '07 finale) |
| Matt Schaub | Five TDs, no INTs in last two vs. Titans |
| Tony Scheffler | Four TDs in last three vs. Chargers (101 yards, TD in Week 6 meeting) |
| Kurt Warner | Three 275+ yard games, six TDs in last three vs. Rams |
| Reggie Wayne | 10 catches, 160 yards, 2 TDs in last two vs. Ravens |
| Cadillac Williams | Three rushing touchdowns in last two at home vs. Saints |
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| Joseph Addai | 145 total yards, three TDs in three career games vs. BAL |
| Donnie Avery | Five catches, 44 yards in two '08 games vs. Cardinals |
| Marion Barber | Two TDs, one 100-yard game in career vs. Redskins (seven games) |
| Ladell Betts | No TDs vs. Dallas since 2005 (six games) |
| Marc Bulger | Eight INTs, six TDs in last four vs. Cardinals |
| Jerricho Cotchery | One TD, no 100-yard games in last five vs. Patriots |
| Dallas Clark | Six catches, 86 yards, no TDs in four career games vs. BAL |
| Matt Forte | 85 total yards in last year's game with Eagles |
| David Garrard | 165 yards, no TDs, INT, 32 rush yards last year at home vs. Bills |
| Steven Jackson | One TD, two 100-total-yard games in last five vs. Cardinals (3.3 rush avg.) |
| Thomas Jones | One TD, one 100-yard game in last five vs. NE (54 rush yards in early meeting) |
| Brandon Marshall | One TD, one 100-yard game in last five vs. SD (49 yards in Week 6 meeting) |
| Donovan McNabb | One game with two TDs in six career meeting with Bears |
| Knowshon Moreno | 18 carries, 44 yards in earlier '09 meeting with Chargers |
| Roy E. Williams | Three catches, 36 yards in each of last two meetings vs. Washington |
| Jason Witten | One TD, one game over 70 yards in last five vs. WAS |
You can email your Fantasy Football questions to DMFantasyFootball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: History Lessons in the subject field. Include your full name, hometown and state, and we'll get to as many as we can.