Tricks of the Trade: When overpaying makes sense

They call it a deadline. Cross it, you're dead.

For most leagues, it's coming up this week, which means you no longer have the luxury of a wait-and-see approach. Any doubts or insecurities that have hindered you in the past need some sort of resolution if you hope to improve your team beyond the dumb luck of a late-season waiver claim.

It's now or never, so unless you feel confident your team can take home the title, you should channel your energy into making that one show-stopping trade that'll elevate it from good to great. You know you've thought about it. Now make it happen.

For the path to greatness is a steep one, littered with overgrown roots, stumps and anthills. If you keep your hands in your pockets, you don't stand a chance.

If, on the other hand, you don't already have a deal in mind but know you need one, do your part to create a buzz. Post something on the message board reminding everyone of the trade deadline and listing all the players you'd like to move (even if you don't really mean it).

You'll be amazed how people spring to action when they hear the sound of a ticking clock.

Trade No. 1: The real McCoy
Team A gets: LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles
Team B gets: Marques Colston

Brian Westbrook suffered another concussion Sunday, his second in four weeks.

One is bad enough. Two is just plain scary. And two that close together is ... well, it's a pretty somber situation. You can't help but wonder how long he can go before his third or, worse yet, how much damage it'll do.

It's not about him playing at full capacity or recovering in time for next year. It's about what happens when his career ends. This is his life, and it's too important to waste on the pursuit of a championship ring or a few extra millions.

I suspect the people close to him will tell him the same thing, making the chances of him returning this year next to nothing and the chances of him returning next year not much better. No, the Eagles haven't declared him out for the year or placed him on IR or taken a stance on anything beyond this weekend, leaving us in the Fantasy-playing community without closure. But I firmly believe if anyone close to him has any sense, he won't play again.

So I've turned the page. Official announcement or not, McCoy is the Eagles' starting running back, which means you can expect the same production on the ground and in the air that Westbrook provided year after year. Not to take anything away from Westbrook himself, but that's what the running back does in the Eagles offense. Look what Correll Buckhalter did last year. Shoot, look at what McCoy has done in his opportunities this year. And since McCoy doesn't have all the injury concerns of an aging Westbrook, he offers even more security from week to week. I can't imagine a time I'd sit him in Fantasy.

Rarely can you get a must-start running back this late in the season. And if you need one, you probably need him more than you need someone like Colston, who's a must-start in his own right but is too inconsistent to rank alongside Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne. Charles is just a throw-in in my eyes, but if he proves he can rush for 100 yards against teams other than the Raiders, this trade would swing even more in Team A's favor.

And the best part is you can probably get McCoy for even less than this, at least until that official announcement comes. An owner in one league traded the Steve Smith of the Giants for him. Great. Another owner traded Steve Breaston for him. Works for me.

I chose to analyze this particular trade because I wanted to illustrate just how far I'd go to acquire McCoy. If I needed a running back, I wouldn't let a player as good as Colston stand in my way.

Winner: Team A for beating the official announcement on Westbrook and acquiring his backup at a still-discounted rate.

Trade No. 2: Quit cryin' over Matt Ryan
Team A gets: Matt Ryan and Devery Henderson
Team B gets: Kyle Orton and Austin Collie

Ryan is one of the least popular players in Fantasy right now. A revelation as a rookie, he has disappeared into the mess of middle-of-the-road quarterbacks that at least one team in every league has to start -- guys like Jay Cutler, Eli Manning and Matt Hasselbeck.

He started out well enough, throwing seven touchdowns in his first four games, but since then, he has 10 interceptions in his last five games, averaging just over 200 yards per game.

It doesn't make sense, not according to natural progression and not after the Falcons acquired Tony Gonzalez to give Ryan a reliable target over the middle. He should have gotten better, not worse, become a must-start, not a start-at-your-own risk. The people who drafted him are tired of him, frustrated with him and ready to wash their hands of him.

Which, of course, presents you with an opportunity for a bargain.

As much as Ryan has struggled over his last five games, he ranks 14th among quarterbacks during that stretch, ahead of Hasselbeck, ahead of Manning, ahead of Joe Flacco and ahead of -- you guessed it -- Orton.

Even at his worst, Ryan is better than Orton, and you have to believe he'll pull out of this funk to some degree, if for no other reason than because the Falcons will lean on him more with Michael Turner sidelined by an ankle injury. Sure, the interceptions will continue, but if the yards increase, he'll get his points.

Yup, I was a big Jon Kitna fan back in the day.

I realize I don't paint the prettiest picture, but my point is even with the most pessimistic of forecasts, this trade makes sense for Team A. It's an investment in talent at the cost of only Collie, who looks like nothing more than waiver fodder right now anyway.

Winner: Team A for using perception to upgrade at quarterback.

Trade No. 3: What have you done for me lately?
Team A gets: Ryan Grant and Steve Smith (Giants)
Team B gets: Andre Johnson

Over the last five weeks, Heath Evans, Rashad Jennings, Jeff Dugan, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Eric Weems and countless others have all done something Andre Johnson hasn't.

They've scored touchdowns.

In a game where touchdowns mean everything (according to some people, anyway), that's a frustrating development, especially since Johnson has less than 65 yards receiving in two of those four games. He hasn't scored 15 points in standard leagues since Week 5, which might not sound too bad if we weren't talking about a second-round pick here -- a first-rounder to some.

Fantasy owners typically lack patience. It's not the worst quality in the world, but it can create problems if, in their efforts to fix things, they patch up a wound that doesn't exist. So let's set the record straight right now: If you own Johnson, he should be the least of your concerns.

Seriously, he's fine. He might look like he's struggling, but he ranks third in receiving yards over that four-game stretch. He has just as many 100-yard games (two) over his last four as he did over his first four, and if anything, quarterback Matt Schaub will have to rely on him more in the red zone with Owen Daniels out for the year. Nothing about Johnson's prognosis has changed. The ball just hasn't bounced his way lately. Sometimes it's as simple as that.

But people will always try to read more into it than that, and if one of those people happens to own Johnson, he might force the issue and chase touchdowns by trading for Grant and Smith -- two perfectly acceptable Fantasy options, but neither with the elite upside of Johnson.

So test the Johnson owner in your league. If you can feed off his paranoia the way Team B did here, your team can only benefit.

Winner: Team B for taking advantage of a rare opportunity to buy low on an elite player.

Trade No. 4: Greater than or equal to?
Team A gets: Randy Moss
Team B gets: Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno

Time for the other side of the coin.

You know how Johnson has zero touchdowns over his last four games? Yeah? Well, Moss has six, averaging 131 yards per game during that stretch.

Pretty ridiculous, right?

It might impress me more if he didn't have 50 yards receiving or less in three of his previous five games. Guess the ball just didn't bounce his way, right?

Look, I don't mean to belabor my point about Johnson, alienating all the people who don't own him or can't get him, but let's not lose sight of this column's intended purpose. It's more about generic strategies than specific players. The examples are just that. After all, the chance of you making any of these trades player-for-player is virtually nonexistent.

The strategy here is all about timing. Johnson is an elite wide receiver who hasn't caught touchdown passes lately. Moss is an elite wide receiver who has caught touchdown passes lately. Both play in pass-heavy offenses. Both have good quarterbacks. Both have limitless potential and long track records of success. The only thing separating the two is the touchdowns.

As far as your Fantasy team is concerned, Johnson and Moss are the exact same player. One just has all the luck right now. But luck changes, as it did for Moss earlier this year and as it will for Johnson eventually.

Team B knows it and got two freebies in Marshall, who doesn't rank too far behind Johnson and Moss, and Moreno, who will get most of the carries in Denver going forward, because of it.

Those are two highly usable players acquired for free, and all because Team B duped some unsuspecting owner into believing both Moss' and Johnson's next seven games will go exactly like their last four.

Not gonna happen.

Winner: Team B for using perception to acquire two free players.

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